• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic LCC

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Application of probabilistic VE/LCC Analysis Models for Quay Wall Structures (안벽구조물의 확률론적 VE/LCC 분석모델 적용방안)

  • Ahn, Jong-Pil;Lee, Cheung-Bin;Park, Ju-Won;Yu, Deog-Chan
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2007
  • It is common that the analysis of VE/LCC is performed in design phase of quay wall structures. The analysis is mainly executed based on experience and engineering sense of expert considering the selection of construction method, construction and maintenance cost. Recently there are increasing demands on the analysis that includes uncertainty and vulnerability of input parameters, for this purpose, fuzzy reliability based probabilistic VE/LCC analysis model for quay wall structures is suggested. In VE/LCC analysis for quay wall structures, the application of probabilistic analysis method give very similar results compare with those of deterministic analysis method. It is anticipated that the methodology proposed in this paper can also be utilized in the design and maintenance phase of other facilities where decision making is made for the probabilistic life cycle cost and value analysis.

The Study for Selection of the Optimum Route by Economic Analyses (설계의 경제성 분석을 통한 최적노선 선정방안 연구 - OO경전철 민간투자사업 사례연구 -)

  • Kwon, Suk-Hyun;Seo, Sung-Han;Lee, Dong-Woo
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.128-138
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    • 2008
  • VE of the scripture season enterprises and it respected LCC analyzes from the research which it sees and to use AHP techniques and definite LCC techniques and probabilistic LCC techniques selects the optimum route the case study which it executed. It presented the quality rating model in about the resultant most route lascivious at the time of VE evaluation, in order to select the alternative of optimum AHP techniques which are one in decision-making technique and an evaluation item by weight and a grade it applied the mountaintop it did. Also the definite LCC analyzer law departments of existing together it applied the probabilistic LCC techniques which use Monte Carlo Simulation in about analytical prices and reliability height boil. The economical efficiency was excellent with VE/LCC analytical resultant route and facility size abridgment, the rivers most it will be able to minimize an environmental effect with short distance traverse, the selection this hit preparation LCC which separates from the land use side decreased, the value (V) above 22.0% with the fact that it improves. And, the reliability of the probabilistic LCC analytical resultant analytical results in compliance with Monte Carlo Simulation with 90.3% was very analyzed with the fact that it is a high level.

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Probabilistic optimal safety valuation based on stochastic finite element analysis of steel cable-stayed bridges

  • Han, Sung-Ho;Bang, Myung-Seok
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.89-110
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    • 2012
  • This study was intended to efficiently perform the probabilistic optimal safety assessment of steel cable-stayed bridges (SCS bridges) using stochastic finite element analysis (SFEA) and expected life-cycle cost (LCC) concept. To that end, advanced probabilistic finite element algorithm (APFEA) which enables to execute the static and dynamic SFEA considering aleatory uncertainties contained in random variable was developed. APFEA is the useful analytical means enabling to conduct the reliability assessment (RA) in a systematic way by considering the result of SFEA based on linearity and nonlinearity of before or after introducing initial tensile force. The appropriateness of APFEA was verified in such a way of comparing the result of SFEA and that of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The probabilistic method was set taking into account of analytical parameters. The dynamic response characteristic by probabilistic method was evaluated using ASFEA, and RA was carried out using analysis results, thereby quantitatively calculating the probabilistic safety. The optimal design was determined based on the expected LCC according to the results of SFEA and RA of alternative designs. Moreover, given the potential epistemic uncertainty contained in safety index, failure probability and minimum LCC, the sensitivity analysis was conducted and as a result, a critical distribution phase was illustrated using a cumulative-percentile.

A Study on the Design Value Analysis Model Using Probabilistic LCC Analysis of Water Supply System Project (확률적 LCC분석기법을 활용한 수도시설물의 설계VA모델에 관한 연구)

  • Jung Pyung-Ki;Seo Jong-Won;Lim Jong-Kwon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.5 no.2 s.18
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    • pp.181-193
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    • 2004
  • A life cycle cost analysis model for public water supply systems should be different from the ones for other civil and architectural facilities as the operation and the maintenance cost of the water supply systems mainly come from the various mechanical systems and the pipeline systems of the collecting/treating/distributing facilities. This paper presents a cost classification scheme and a probabilistic life cycle cost analysis (PLCCA) model for public water supply systems. A value analysis (VA) procedure that is well suited for practical purposes is also presented. The presented probabilistic life cycle model and the value analysis procedure were applied to a real world project, and this case study is discussed in the paper. The model and the procedure presented in this study can greatly contribute to the value-oriented design alternative selection, the estimation of the maintenance cost, and the allocation of budget for water supply system construction projects.

Probabilistic LCC evaluation for Surface Repair of carbonated RC structure (탄산화된 RC구조물의 표면보수에 대한 확률론적 LCC 평가)

  • Lee, Hyung-Min;Yang, Hyun-Min;Lee, Han-Seung
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2018
  • Carbonation is one of the major detrimental factors to the reinforced concrete structures owing to penetration of atmospheric CO2 through the micro pores, thereby it reduces the durability of the concrete. The maintenance periods and cost for concrete according to the coefficient variation of different finishing materials is documented in literature. However, it is required to carry out the systematic and well planned studies. Therefore, keeping them in mind, surface repair was carried out to the carbonated concrete and the maintenance cost was calculated to measure the durability life after repair with different variable. The deterministic and probabilistic methods were applied for durability and repair cost of the concrete. In the existing deterministic model, the cost of repair materials increases significantly when the concrete structure reaches its service life. In present study using a stochastic model, the maintenance period and cost was evaluated. According to obtained results, there was no significant difference in the number of maintenance of the coefficient variation. The initial durability has a great influence on the maintenance time and cost of the structure. Unlike the deterministic model, the probabilistic cost estimating model reduces the number of maintenance to the target service life expectancy.

Development of Disaster Risk Analysis System for Environment Friendly Road (친환경 도로노선의 재해위험도 평가시스템 개발)

  • Song, Min-Tae;Kang, Ho-Geun;Kim, Heung-Rae;Lee, Tae-Ock;Lee, Han-Joo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.123-132
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    • 2012
  • PURPOSES: This study is to investigate the consideration which relates with a disaster from route alignment process and proposed the method it will be able to evaluate a disaster danger fixed quantity. METHODS: Use the landslide disaster probabilistic map of GIS based and in about landslide occurrence of the route alignment at the time of neighboring area after evaluating a risk fixed quantity, it compared LCC expense in about each alternative route. It developed the system it will be able to analyze a LCC and a disaster risk in about the alternative route. In order to verify a risk analytical algorithm and the system which are developed it selected national road 59 lines on the demonstrative route and it analyzed a disaster risk. RESULTS: Demonstrative route not only the disaster risk to be it will be able to compare a disaster risk fixed quantity like the economical efficiency degree in compliance with LCC expense productions it compared and there being the designer will be able to decide the alternative route, it confirmed. CONCLUSIONS: Roads can be designed by considering occurs repeatedly landslides and debris flow caused by disasters in advance and expect to be able to effect that can reduce the overall cost to recover losses caused by the disaster, and temporally loss is expected.

Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Design of Buildings based on the Lifetime Risk (생애 위험도기반 건축물의 설계단계 생애주기비용 분석 방법)

  • Baek, Byung-Hoon;Cho, Choong-Yeon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.113-119
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    • 2014
  • Recently, the demand on the practical application of life-cycle cost effectiveness for design and rehabilitation of structure is rapidly growing unprecedently in engineering practice. Accordingly, in the 21st century, it is almost obvious that life-cycle cost together with value engineering will become a new paradigm for all engineering decision problems in practice. However, in spite of impressive progress in the researches on the LCC, the most researches have only focused on the Deterministic or Probabilistic LCC analysis approach (Level-1 LCC Model) at design stage. Thus, the goal of this study is to develop a practical and realistic methodology for the Lifetime risk based Life-Cycle Cost (LCC)-effective optimum decision-making at design stage.

A Study on the Optimum Selection of Railload Bridge Using LCC Analysis (LCC분석을 통한 철도 교량의 최적 대안 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Tae-Kyun;Koo, Jeong-San;Lee, Seung-Hoon;Hong, Tae-Hoon;Koo, Kyo-Jin;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.614-619
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a LCC analysis model for selecting railroad bridge type as both of quantitative and qualitative factors to increase the effectiveness in the selecting design alternatives and is to select the optimum alternatives through a case study. This LCC analysis model adapts deterministic and probabilistic approach for increasing the reliability and includes AHP analysis considering the qualitative factors.

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Stochastic analysis for Real Rate Interest of Building Life Cycle Cost(LCC) with Monte-Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 건축물 생애주기비용(LCC)의 실질할인율에 대한 확률론적 분석)

  • Kim, Bum-Sic;Jung, Young-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.161-163
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    • 2012
  • Recently on Value Engineering(VE) and Life Cycle Cost(LCC) social interests is increasing. The government Turn Key, BTL projects and public works projects, such as VE and LCC Analysis on the value and economic analysis is mandatory. And accordingly the VE and LCC analysis is underway for the various studies. However, there is a problem existing in the LCC analysis. Worth the cost varies according to the flow of time. However, the real interest rate during the LCC analysis of buildings in calculation time for interest rates and inflation are not considering the value of the flow. In other words, a few years using the average value of the deterministic analysis method has been adopted. These costs for the definitive analysis of the cost of an uncertain future, unforeseen changes resulting hazardous value. In this study of the last 15 years interest rates and inflation targeting by using Monte-Carlo Simulation is to perform probabilistic analysis. This potential to overcome uncertainties of the cost of building a more scientific and LCC Estimation of the probability value of the real interest rate is presented.

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Economic Analysis of Insulation Wall Panel System using LCC Method (LCC기법을 활용한 단열외벽패널시스템의 경제성분석)

  • Kim, Min-Woo;Jeon, Kyu-Nam;Lee, Gun-Cheol;Cho, Byoung-Young;Han, Min-Cheol;Han, Cheon-Goo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.153-155
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    • 2011
  • In this study, an insulation panel system that has the most excellent economic feasibility in a long term LCC viewpoint in some analysis, which determine a proper insulation panel construction method for the out wall of structures, is analyzed. As a result, in the case of a deterministic LCC analysis, the initial investment cost represents about 80,000Won/㎡ for extrusion ceramic panels. Also, although the costs of maintenance, disassembling, and disposal show no large differences compared with other panel systems, metal panels indicate a bit higher than other panel systems about 1.5 times. In the probability density function that analyzes the variation of the probabilistic cost between panel systems and its economic feasibility, metal panels show the highest cost distribution and extrusion and stone panels represent low cost distributions. In the cumulative function distribution that composites probability density functions, the extrusion ceramic panel represents the most excellent economic feasibility and reliability and that is also the most superior subject among the subjects used in this study.

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