• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic Evaluation

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A Synchronized Job Assignment Model for Manual Assembly Lines Using Multi-Objective Simulation Integrated Hybrid Genetic Algorithm (MO-SHGA) (다목적 시뮬레이션 통합 하이브리드 유전자 알고리즘을 사용한 수동 조립라인의 동기 작업 모델)

  • Imran, Muhammad;Kang, Changwook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.211-220
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    • 2017
  • The application of the theoretical model to real assembly lines has been one of the biggest challenges for researchers and industrial engineers. There should be some realistic approach to achieve the conflicting objectives on real systems. Therefore, in this paper, a model is developed to synchronize a real system (A discrete event simulation model) with a theoretical model (An optimization model). This synchronization will enable the realistic optimization of systems. A job assignment model of the assembly line is formulated for the evaluation of proposed realistic optimization to achieve multiple conflicting objectives. The objectives, fluctuation in cycle time, throughput, labor cost, energy cost, teamwork and deviation in the skill level of operators have been modeled mathematically. To solve the formulated mathematical model, a multi-objective simulation integrated hybrid genetic algorithm (MO-SHGA) is proposed. In MO-SHGA each individual in each population acts as an input scenario of simulation. Also, it is very difficult to assign weights to the objective function in the traditional multi-objective GA because of pareto fronts. Therefore, we have proposed a probabilistic based linearization and multi-objective to single objective conversion method at population evolution phase. The performance of MO-SHGA is evaluated with the standard multi-objective genetic algorithm (MO-GA) with both deterministic and stochastic data settings. A case study of the goalkeeping gloves assembly line is also presented as a numerical example which is solved using MO-SHGA and MO-GA. The proposed research is useful for the development of synchronized human based assembly lines for real time monitoring, optimization, and control.

Seismic Performance based Fragility Analysis of Bridge Structure in terms of Soil Conditions (지반조건을 고려한 교량의 내진성능기반 취약도 해석)

  • Lee, Dae-Hyoung;Hong, Hyung-Gi;Chung, Young-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.73-76
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    • 2008
  • The damage of earthquakes have to achieve by probabilistic evaluation because of uncertainty of earthquake. Fragility analysis is a useful tool for predicting the probability of damage induced by the probable earthquake. This paper presents the probability of damage as a function of peak ground acceleration and estimates the probability of five damage levels for the pier of prestressed concrete (PSC) bridge subjected to given ground acceleration. At each 100 artificial earthquake motions were generated in terms of soil conditions, and nonlinear time domain analyses were performed for the damage states of the pier of PSC bridge structures. These damage states are described by displacement ductility result from seismic performance based on existing research results. Using the damage states and ground motion parameters, five fragility curves for the pier of PSC bridges with five types of dominant frequencies were constructed assuming a log-nomal distribution. It was found that there was a significant effect on the fragility curves due to the dominant frequencies.

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Application of Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Profitability-Evaluation of Apartment Reconstruction Projects (아파트 재건축사업의 수익성평가에 대한 확률적 위험도 분석 모형 적용방안)

  • Woo, Kwang-Min;Lee, Hak-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2006
  • It was found that Korean Standard of Estimate which has been used as the only basis of cost estimate of public construction projects had some side effects such as jerry-build construction and over-estimation because it failed to reflect the current price and the state-of-the-art construction methods in a changing construction environment. Therefore, the government decided to gradually introduce historical construction cost into cost estimate of public construction projects from 2004. This paper presents analytic criteria and a process model for deducing more current and reasonable historical construction cost for contract items from not only previous contract prices but also all of the other bid prices that were not contracted. The procedure of estimating actual unit cost proposed in this paper focuses on the removal of abnormal values including strategically too low or high prices and the time correction. In addition, basic research is conducted for the correction of actual unit cost through the analysis of fluctuation of bid price depending on bidding types and rates of successful bid. It is anticipated that the effective use of the proposed process model for estimating actual unit cost would make the cost estimation more current and reasonable.

Variability of Deflections for Reinforced Concrete Flat Plate (철근 콘크리트 플랫 플레이트 처짐의 변동성 평가)

  • Kim, Min Sook;Jo, Eunsun;Lee, Young Hak
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.543-549
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    • 2014
  • The deflection of reinforced concrete members can be highly variable, due to uncertainties in the characteristics of the concrete. However, current standards do not take this problem into account, instead recommending only the minimum thickness and maximum allowable deflections based on empirical data. This paper is aimed at evaluation deflection variabilities by applying a probabilistic analysis model to a finite element analysis model. To evaluate the variabilities of deflections, a Monte Carlo simulation, which incorporated the eight parameters related to concrete, reinforcement, member size, and tension stiffening. The results showed that lager spans were more sensitive to the deflection due to loads and that as the applied live loads were increases and the slab thickness were decreased, the deflection variability increased.

Inelastic Displacement Ratio for SDOF Bilinear and Damping Systems (이선형 단자유도 감쇠시스템의 비탄성변위비)

  • Han, Sang-Whan;Bae, Mun-Su;Cho, Jong
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2007
  • This study investigates the effect of site class, post-yield stiffness ratio, damping ratio, yield-strength reduction factor, and natural period on inelastic displacement ratio of bilinear SDF systems located at the sites classified as NEHRP site class B,C,D. The previous studies developed inelastic displacement ratio using equal displacement rule in the intermediate and long period range. But, this approximation overestimates the inelastic displacement ratio. Furthermore, inelastic displacement ratio has not been developed for the systems having a damping ratio less than 5%. This study conducts nonlinear regression analysis for proposing equations for calculating median and deviation of the inelastic displacement ratio of the bilinear SDOF system having damping ratios ranging from 0 to 20%. Using median and deviation of the inelastic displacement ratio, probabilistic inelastic displacement ratio is estimated, which can be used for performance-based seismic evaluation.

Effect of Near- and Far-Fault Earthquakes for Seismic Fragility Curves of PSC Box Girder Bridges (PSC 상자형교의 지진취약도 곡선에 대한 근거리 및 원거리 지진의 영향)

  • Jin, He-Shou;Song, Jong-Keol
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2010
  • Seismic fragility curves of structures represent the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage state for a given various levels of ground motion intensity, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA). This means that seismic fragility curves are essential to the evaluation of structural seismic performance and assessments of risk. Most of existing studies have not considered the near- and far-fault earthquake effect on the seismic fragility curves. In order to evaluate the effect of near- and far-fault earthquakes, seismic fragility curves for PSC box girder bridges subjected to near- and far-fault earthquakes are calculated and compared. The seismic fragility curves are strongly dependent on the earthquake characteristics such as fault distance. This paper suggests that the effect of near- and far-fault earthquakes on seismic fragility curves of PSC box girder bridge structure should be considered.

Bivariate Drought Frequency Analysis to Evaluate Water Supply Capacity of Multi-Purpose Dams (이변량 가뭄빈도해석을 통한 다목적댐의 용수공급능력 평가)

  • Yu, Ji Soo;Shin, Ji Yae;Kwon, Minsung;Kim, Tea-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.231-238
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    • 2017
  • Water supply safety index plays an important role on assessing the water supply capacity of hydrologic system. Due to the absence of consistent guidance, however, practical problems have been brought up on data period used for dam design and performance evaluation. Therefore, this study employed bivariate drought frequency analysis which is able to consider drought severity and duration simultaneously, in order to evaluate water supply capacity of multi-purpose dams. Drought characteristics were analyzed based on the probabilistic approach, and water supply capacity of five multi-purpose dams in Korea (Soyang River, Chungju, Andong, Daecheong, Seomjin River) were evaluated under the specific drought conditions. As a result, it would be possible to have stable water supply with their own inflow during summer and fall, whereas water shortage would occur even under the 1-year return period drought event during spring and winter due to low rainfall.

Field monitoring of the train-induced hanger vibration in a high-speed railway steel arch bridge

  • Ding, Youliang;An, Yonghui;Wang, Chao
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.1107-1127
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    • 2016
  • Studies on dynamic characteristics of the hanger vibration using field monitoring data are important for the design and evaluation of high-speed railway truss arch bridges. This paper presents an analysis of the hanger's dynamic displacement responses based on field monitoring of Dashengguan Yangtze River Bridge, which is a high-speed railway truss arch bridge with the longest span throughout the world. The three vibration parameters, i.e., dynamic displacement amplitude, dynamic load factor and vibration amplitude, are selected to investigate the hanger's vibration characteristics in each railway load case including the probability statistical characteristics and coupled vibration characteristics. The influences of carriageway and carriage number on the hanger's vibration characteristics are further investigated. The results indicate that: (1) All the eight railway load cases can be successfully identified according to the relationship of responses from strain sensors and accelerometers in the structural health monitoring system. (2) The hanger's three vibration parameters in each load case in the longitudinal and transverse directions have obvious probabilistic characteristics. However, they fall into different distribution functions. (3) There is good correlation between the hanger's longitudinal/transverse dynamic displacement and the main girder's transverse dynamic displacement in each load case, and their relationships are shown in the hysteresis curves. (4) Influences of the carriageway and carriage number on the hanger's three parameters are different in both longitudinal and transverse directions; while the influence on any of the three parameters presents an obvious statistical trend. The present paper lays a good foundation for the further analysis of train-induced hanger vibration and control.

Statistical analysis and probabilistic modeling of WIM monitoring data of an instrumented arch bridge

  • Ye, X.W.;Su, Y.H.;Xi, P.S.;Chen, B.;Han, J.P.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.1087-1105
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    • 2016
  • Traffic load and volume is one of the most important physical quantities for bridge safety evaluation and maintenance strategies formulation. This paper aims to conduct the statistical analysis of traffic volume information and the multimodal modeling of gross vehicle weight (GVW) based on the monitoring data obtained from the weigh-in-motion (WIM) system instrumented on the arch Jiubao Bridge located in Hangzhou, China. A genetic algorithm (GA)-based mixture parameter estimation approach is developed for derivation of the unknown mixture parameters in mixed distribution models. The statistical analysis of one-year WIM data is firstly performed according to the vehicle type, single axle weight, and GVW. The probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the GVW data of selected vehicle types are then formulated by use of three kinds of finite mixed distributions (normal, lognormal and Weibull). The mixture parameters are determined by use of the proposed GA-based method. The results indicate that the stochastic properties of the GVW data acquired from the field-instrumented WIM sensors are effectively characterized by the method of finite mixture distributions in conjunction with the proposed GA-based mixture parameter identification algorithm. Moreover, it is revealed that the Weibull mixture distribution is relatively superior in modeling of the WIM data on the basis of the calculated Akaike's information criterion (AIC) values.

Centroid-model based music similarity with alpha divergence (알파 다이버전스를 이용한 무게중심 모델 기반 음악 유사도)

  • Seo, Jin Soo;Kim, Jeonghyun;Park, Jihyun
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2016
  • Music-similarity computation is crucial in developing music information retrieval systems for browsing and classification. This paper overviews the recently-proposed centroid-model based music retrieval method and applies the distributional similarity measures to the model for retrieval-performance evaluation. Probabilistic distance measures (also called divergence) compute the distance between two probability distributions in a certain sense. In this paper, we consider the alpha divergence in computing distance between two centroid models for music retrieval. The alpha divergence includes the widely-used Kullback-Leibler divergence and Bhattacharyya distance depending on the values of alpha. Experiments were conducted on both genre and singer datasets. We compare the music-retrieval performance of the distributional similarity with that of the vector distances. The experimental results show that the alpha divergence improves the performance of the centroid-model based music retrieval.