• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.905-922
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• 2021

라벨 없이 진행되는 비지도 학습 중 하나인 군집분석은 자료에 어떤 그룹이 내포되어 있는지 사전 지식이 없을 경우에 군집을 발굴하고, 군집 간의 특성 차이와 군집 안에서의 유사성을 분석하고자 할 때 유용한 방법이다. 기본적인 군집분석 중 하나인 K-means 방법은 변수의 개수가 많아질 때 잘 동작하지 않을 수 있으며, 군집에 대한 해석도 쉽지 않은 문제가 있다. 따라서 고차원 자료의 경우 주성분 분석과 같은 차원 축소 방법을 사용하여 변수의 개수를 줄인 후에 K-means 군집분석을 행하는 Tandem 군집분석이 제안되었다. 하지만 차원 축소 방법을 이용해서 찾아낸 축소 차원이 반드시 군집에 대한 구조를 잘 반영할 것이라는 보장은 없다. 특히 군집의 구조와는 상관없는 변수들의 분산 또는 공분산이 클 때, 주성분 분석을 통한 차원 축소는 오히려 군집의 구조를 가릴 수 있다. 이에 따라 군집분석과 차원 축소를 동시에 진행하는 방법들이 제안되어 왔다. 그 중에서도 본 연구에서는 De Soete와 Carroll (1994)이 제안한 방법론을 확률적인 모형으로 바꿔 군집분석을 진행하는 확률적 reduced K-means를 제안한다. 모의실험 결과 차원 축소를 배제한 군집분석과 Tandem 군집분석보다 더 좋은 군집을 형성함을 알 수 있었고 군집 당 표본 크기에 비해 변수의 개수가 많은 자료에서 기존의 비 확률적 reduced K-means 군집분석에 비해 우수한 성능을 확인했다. 보스턴 자료에서는 다른 군집분석 방법론보다 명확한 군집이 형성됨을 확인했다.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.634-648
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• 2005

Performed here is a comparative assessment study for the probabilistic fracture mechanics approach of the pressurized thermal shock of the reactor pressure vessel. A round robin consisting of one prerequisite deterministic study and five cases for probabilistic approaches is proposed, and all organizations interested are invited. The problems are solved by the participants and their results are compared to issue some recommendation of best practices and to assure an understanding of the key parameters in this type of approach, like transient description and frequency, material properties, defect type and distribution, fracture mechanics methodology etc., which will be useful in the justification through a probabilistic approach for the case of a plant over-passing the screening criteria. Six participants from 3 organizations responded to the problem and their results are compiled and analyzed in this study.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.104-118
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• 2003

It has been criticized that conventional human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies for probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) have been focused on the quantification of human error probability (HEP) without detailed analysis of human cognitive processes such as situation assessment or decision-making which are crticial to successful response to emergency situations. This paper introduces a new human reliability analysis (HRA) methodology, AGAPE-ET (A guidance And Procedure for Human Error Analysis for Emergency Tasks), focused on the qualitative error analysis of emergency tasks from the viewpoint of the performance of human cognitive function. The AGAPE-ET method is based on the simplified cognitive model and a taxonomy of influencing factors. By each cognitive function, error causes or error-likely situations have been identified considering the characteristics of the performance of each cognitive function and influencing mechanism of PIFs on the cognitive function. Then, overall human error analysis process is designed considering the cognitive demand of the required task. The application to an emergency task shows that the proposed method is useful to identify task vulnerabilities associated with the performance of emergency tasks.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.39-46
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• 2012

The objectives of this study is intended to analyze stresses using the boundary element method and probability analysis for agricultural structure. Loads and material properties are an important factor when analyzing the structure. Until now, designing structure, loads and material properties are applied deterministic value. However, load and material properties involve uncertainties due to those change probabilistic and deterministic methods could not consider uncertainties. To solve these problems, the reliability analysis based on probability properties scheme was developed. Reliability analysis is easy to approach to analysis frame structure, however it has limitation when solving plane stress strain problems a kind of agricultural structures. The BEM (Boundary Element Method) is able to analysis plane strain problems by boundary conditions. Thus, this study applied boundary element method to analysis plane strain problem, load and material properties as a probabilistic value to calculate the analytical model using Monte Carlo simulations were developed.

• 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.62-69
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• 2013

A probabilistic assessment code, PRO-LOCA ver. 3.7 which was developed in an international co-operative research program, PARTRIDGE was evaluated by conducting sensitivity analysis. The effect of some variables such as simulation methods (adaptive sampling, iteration numbers, weld residual stress model), crack features(Poisson's arrival rate, maximum numbers of cracks, initial flaw size, fabrication flaws), operating and loading conditions(temperature, primary bending stress, earthquake strength and frequency), and inspection model(inspection intervals, detectable leak rate) on the failure probabilities of a surge line nozzle was investigated. The results of sensitivity analysis shows the remaining problems of the PRO-LOCA code such as the instability of adaptive sampling and unexpected trend of failure probabilities at an early stage.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제18권spc호
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• pp.63-74
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• 2020

The operational safety assessment is an important part of a safety case for the deep geological repository of spent fuels. It consists of different stages such as the identification of initiating events, event tree analysis, fault tree analysis, and evaluation of exposure doses to the public and radiation workers. This study develops a probabilistic safety assessment method for the operational safety assessment and establishes an assessment framework. For the event and fault tree analyses, we propose the advanced information management system for probabilistic safety assessment (AIMS-PSA Manager). In addition, we propose the Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) program to evaluate exposure doses to the public and radiation workers. Furthermore, we check the applicability of the assessment framework with respect to drop accidents of a spent fuel assembly arising out of crane failure, at the surface facility of the KRS⁺ (KAERI Reference disposal System for SNFs). The methods and tools established through this study can be used for the development of a safety case for the KRS⁺ system as well as for the design modification and the operational safety assessment of the KRS⁺ system.

• 전산구조공학
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.125-131
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• 1997

대부분의 동적계는 기진력 및 계 인자들에 있어서 다양한 불확정 특성을 갖고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기진력의 불확정성과 계 인자들의 불확정성을 모두 갖는 선형 동적계에 대한 응답해석 과정을 제안하였다. 확률특성을 갖는 계 인자와 응답은 섭동법에 의해 모델링되었으며, 응답해석은 불규칙 진동 이론에 의하여 정식화 되었다. 또한 제안된 응답 모델에 의해 계산되기 어려운 응답의 평균에 대한 해석은 확률유한요소법을 사용하였다. 적용 예로서 정상 백색잡음 기진력을 받으며 불확정 질량과 스프링 상수를 갖는 1자유도계 문제에 대하여 과도응답을 계산하고, 그 결과를 수치 시뮬레이션 결과와 비교하여 그 타당성을 검토하였다.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.215-221
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• 2018

In this study, the optimal design of a mooring system was carried out. Unlike almost all design methods, which are based on the deterministic method, this study focused on the probabilistic method. The probabilistic method, especially the design of experiment (DOE), could be a good way to cover some of the drawbacks of the deterministic approach. There various parameters for a mooring system, as widely known, including the weight, length, and stiffness of line. Scenarios for the mooring system parameters were produced using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method of the probabilistic approach. Next, a vessel-mooring system coupled analysis was performed in Orcaflex. A total of 50 scenarios were used in this study to optimize the initial design by means of a genetic algorithm. Finally, after determining the optimal process, a reliability analysis was performed to understand the system validity.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.379-393
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to first evaluate the seismic behavior of ageing arch bridges by using the Intensity Measure - based demand and DCFD format, which is referred to as the fragility-hazard format. Then, an investigation is performed for their seismic vulnerability. Analytical models are created for bridges concerning different features and these models are subjected to Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) analysis using a set of 22 earthquake records. The hazard curve and results of IDA analysis are employed to evaluate the return period of exceeding the limit states in the IM-based probabilistic performance-based context. Subsequently, the fragility-hazard format is used to assess factored demand, factored capacity, and the ratio of the factored demand to the factored capacity of the models with respect to different performance objectives. Finally, the vulnerability curves are obtained for the investigated bridges in terms of the loss ratio. The results revealed that decreasing the span length of the unreinforced arch bridges leads to the increase in the return period of exceeding various limit states and factored capacity and decrease in the displacement demand, the probability of failure, the factored demand, as well as the factored demand to factored capacity ratios, loss ratio, and seismic vulnerability. Finally, it is derived that the probability of the need for rehabilitation increases by an increase in the span length of the models.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.191-200
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• 2007

This paper introduces a tool for predicting potential cost overrun during project execution and for quantifying the uncertainty on the expected project cost, which is occasionally changed by the unknown effects resulted from project's complications and unforeseen environments. The model proposed in this stuff is useful in diagnosing cost performance as a project progresses and in monitoring the changes of the uncertainty as indicators for a warning signal. This model is intended for the use by project managers who forecast the change of the uncertainty and its magnitude. The paper presents a mathematical approach for modifying the costs of incomplete work packages and project cost, and quantifying reduced uncertainties at a consistent confidence level as actual cost information of an ongoing project is obtained. Furthermore, this approach addresses the effects of actual informed data of completed work packages on the re-estimates of incomplete work packages and describes the impacts on the variation of the uncertainty for the expected project cost incorporating Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis (MPA) and Bayes' Theorem. For the illustration purpose, the Introduced model has employed an example construction project. The results are analyzed to demonstrate the use of the model and illustrate its capabilities.