• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prior Probability

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Agro-climate Characteristics and Stability in Crop Production of Daegwallyeong Area in Korea (기상자료 분석을 통한 대관령 지역의 작물 최저 한계온도일 추정)

  • Ryu, Jong-Soo;Lee, Jeong-Tae;Lee, Gye-Jun;Oh, Dong-Shig
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.1153-1156
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    • 2012
  • Daegwallyeong area to be formed along the mountainous terrain more above 800 m of sea level is known as the cold zone to occur frequently wind, rain and fog. This study to evaluate the stability of crop production and agricultural production potential in the Daegwallyeong was calculated for the low temperature frequency of occurrence and potential evapotranspiration changes with announce the release of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) from 1972 to 2009 up to 38 years. Evapotranspiration calculated FAO and other international standard method authorized under the PENMAN-MONTEITH Method was used, and the low temperature onset and frequency of the Gumbel probability density function was used. As a result, the variation of day evaporation for 38 years were showed to respectively width of variation from maximum $9mm\;day^{-1}$ to minimum $0.5mm\;day^{-1}$. The frequency of reappearance to first emergence day that lasts more than 5 days with temperature $5^{\circ}C$ over is 3 April a 50-year frequency, 10 April a 25-year frequency, 20 April a 10-year frequency, 28 April a 5-year frequency, 8 May a 2-year frequency. Psychrotrophic crop to growth temperature more than $5^{\circ}C$ can be secured to stable production with planting after May 8, prior to planting for normal growth can be seen that the risk of growth.

The Effectiveness of Baking and Pastry Activity Program on Cognitive Function of Elderly with Dementia (제과제빵 활동프로그램이 치매노인의 인지기능에 미치는 효과)

  • Lee, Eun-Hee;Lee, Jung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.544-554
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this research was to determine the effect of baking and pastry activity programs on the cognitive function of the elderly with dementia. The study was carried out on 19 elderly with dementia who attended K city C daycare center and who provided consent. A total of 10 elderly were assigned to the experimental group, and the other nine were assigned to the control group. To test the effectiveness of the program, this research used the pretest-posttest control group design. The experimental group administered the program from January 2, 2017 to February 28, 2017. However, the control group did not undergo a separate program. Fisher's accuracy test was performed to identify the homogeneity of the experimental and control groups. Mann-Whitney U Test was conducted to identify the homogeneity of the cognitive functions of the experimental and control groups prior to the launch of the program. Wilcoxon Matched-Pairs Signed-Rank and Mann-Whitney U Test were conducted to determine the effects of the program on the cognitive function of the elderly with dementia. As a result, the program verified the effect on the cognitive function of the elderly with dementia. According to these findings, the important issues and limitations of the research are discussed.

Estimated Soft Information based Most Probable Classification Scheme for Sorting Metal Scraps with Laser-induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (레이저유도 플라즈마 분광법을 이용한 폐금속 분류를 위한 추정 연성정보 기반의 최빈 분류 기술)

  • Kim, Eden;Jang, Hyemin;Shin, Sungho;Jeong, Sungho;Hwang, Euiseok
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.84-91
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    • 2018
  • In this study, a novel soft information based most probable classification scheme is proposed for sorting recyclable metal alloys with laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). Regression analysis with LIBS captured spectrums for estimating concentrations of common elements can be efficient for classifying unknown arbitrary metal alloys, even when that particular alloy is not included for training. Therefore, partial least square regression (PLSR) is employed in the proposed scheme, where spectrums of the certified reference materials (CRMs) are used for training. With the PLSR model, the concentrations of the test spectrum are estimated independently and are compared to those of CRMs for finding out the most probable class. Then, joint soft information can be obtained by assuming multi-variate normal (MVN) distribution, which enables to account the probability measure or a prior information and improves classification performance. For evaluating the proposed schemes, MVN soft information is evaluated based on PLSR of LIBS captured spectrums of 9 metal CRMs, and tested for classifying unknown metal alloys. Furthermore, the likelihood is evaluated with the radar chart to effectively visualize and search the most probable class among the candidates. By the leave-one-out cross validation tests, the proposed scheme is not only showing improved classification accuracies but also helpful for adaptive post-processing to correct the mis-classifications.

Dose-Response Relationship of Avian Influenza Virus Based on Feeding Trials in Humans and Chickens (조류인플루엔자 바이러스의 양-반응 모형)

  • Pak, Son-Il;Lee, Jae-Yong;Jeon, Jong-Min
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.101-107
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    • 2011
  • This study aimed to determine dose-response (DR) curve of avian influenza (AI) virus to predict the probability of illness or adverse health effects that may result from exposure to a pathogenic microorganism in a quantitative microbial risk assessment. To determine the parametric DR relationship of several strains of AI virus, 7 feeding trial data sets challenging humans (5 sets) and chickens (2 sets) for strains of H3N2 (4 sets), H5N1 (2 sets) and H1N1 (1 set) from the published literatures. Except for one data set (study with intra-tracheal inoculation for data set no. 6), all were obtained from the studies with intranasal inoculation. The data were analyzed using three types of DR model as the basis of heterogeneity in infectivity of AI strains in humans and chickens: exponential, beta-binomial and beta-Poisson. We fitted to the data using maximum likelihood estimation to get the parameter estimates of each model. The alpha and beta values of the beta-Poisson DR model ranged 0.06-0.19 and 1.7-48.8, respectively for H3N2 strain. Corresponding values for H5N1 ranged 0.464-0.563 and 97.3-99.4, respectively. For H1N1 the parameter values were 0.103 and 12.7, respectively. Using the exponential model, r (infectivity parameter) ranged from $1.6{\times}10^{-8}$ to $1.2{\times}10^{-5}$ for H3N2 and from $7.5{\times}10^{-3}$ to $4.0{\times}10^{-2}$ for H5N1, while the value was $1.6{\times}10^{-8}$ for H1N1. The beta-Poisson DR model provided the best fit to five of 7 data sets tested, and the estimated parameter values in betabinomial model were very close to those of beta-Poisson. Our study indicated that beta-binomial or beta-Poisson model could be the choice for DR modeling of AI, even though DR relationship varied depending on the virus strains studied, as indicated in prior studies. Further DR modeling should be conducted to quantify the differences among AI virus strains.

The Effects of $Hwangryunhaedok$-$tang$ Pharmacopuncture by the Anti-inflammatory Action of Suppression of iNOS Production on Mice with Allergic Rhinitis (황련해독탕 약침액의 iNOS 생성 억제를 통한 항염증효과가 알레르기성 비염 유발 생쥐의 치료에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Jae-Yong;Kim, Yu-Jong;Kim, Eun-Jung;Lee, Seung-Deok;Kim, Kap-Sung
    • Journal of Acupuncture Research
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2012
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study was find out the therapeutic effects of its exclusive use on the rat with allergic rhinitis. Materials and Methods : Thirty Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into three group : normal group, control group and sample group. To induce the allergic rhinitis in control group and sample group, rats were sensitized intraperitoneally with 0.1% ovalumin solution 3 times at intervals of 1 week. Then intranasal sensitization was performed by diffusing 0.1% ovalumin solution 3 times at intervals of 2 days. After that time, rats in the sample group were administered by $Yonghyang$($LI_{20}$) subcutaneously to treat the inflammation. Results : 1. The anti-oxidant effects of $Hwangryunhaedok-tang$ extract was dose-dependantly increased. 2. The RAW 264.7 cells were treated with LPS for 1 hours prior to the addition of indicated concentrations ($0.4,-1.0mg/m{\ell}$) of HHT, and the cells were further incubated for 24 hours. The LPS-induced iNOS mRNA expression and NO production were dose-dependantly decreased in HHT treated RAW 264.7 cells. 3. The number of eosinophil in HP noticeably decreased than CON and this decrease had probability. The infiltration of eosinophil in HP noticeably decreased than CON. 4. The damaged mucosa as disruption of cilia in respiratory cell and vacant mucose secreting cell were increased CON, but HP same as normal configuration. Decrease of PAS positive cell were shown in CON, but goblet cell occupied with neutral mucous were shown in HP. Decrease of mucosal stress(HSP70). Decrease of perennial sign(PPAR-${\gamma}$). Decrease of icthing and sneezing intricate neurotransmitter-(substance P). 5. The anti-inflammation of HHT pharmacopuncture for AR caused mucosa comes to result as belows. Decrease of pre-inflammation cytokine(TNF-${\alpha}$). Decrease of transcription factor (NF-${\kappa}B$ p65). Decrease of transcription factor inhibitor(p-$I{\kappa}B$). Decrease of inflammation cytokine(iNOS). Conclusions : The results may suggest that administration treatment using $Hwangryunhaedok-tang$ pharmacopucnture decreases the inflammatory response on an animal model with allergic rhinitis.

A Study on the Thermal Crack Control of Foundation for Large Turbine (대형 터빈 기초 구조물의 온도균열 제어에 관한 연구)

  • Ha, Ju-Hyung;Cho, Yun-Gu;Lee, Kewn-Chu;Lim, Chang-Keun
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.287-297
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    • 2014
  • Heat of hydration of mass concrete is one of the most important factors that significantly affect structural quality and construction period. Therefore, appropriate methods to control heat of hydration are essential technologies for mass concrete construction. In this study, probability of thermal cracking was checked by thermal analysis prior to the construction of a turbine foundation in a domestic power plant. Subsequently, changes of concrete mix proportion and an effective curing method were proposed to control heat of hydration of mass concrete structures. Concrete manufactured by slag cement was proposed instead of concrete produced by ordinary Portland cement, and an automated curing method was proposed to improve the curing method using typical moist curing with blanket. The automated curing method maintains the temperature difference between center and surface of concrete below a setting value by temperature monitoring. Concrete with slag cement was used for actual construction. One of two identical turbine foundations was cured by an insulated curing method, and the other was cured by the automated curing method to compare the curing methods. And then, the effects of control of heat of hydration were evaluated based on temperature/strain monitoring and crack investigations.

Detection of an Object Bottoming at Seabed by the Reflected Signal Modeling (천해에서 해저면 반사파의 모델링을 통한 물체의 탐지)

  • On, Baeksan;Kim, Sunho;Moon, Woosik;Im, Sungbin;Seo, Iksu
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2016
  • Detecting an object which is located at seabed is an important issue for various areas. This paper presents an approach to detection of an object that is placed at seabed in the shallow water. A conventional scheme is to employ a side-scan sonar to obtain images of a detection area and to use image processing schemes to recognize an object. Since this approach relies on high frequency signals to get clear images, its detection range becomes shorter and the processing time is getting longer. In this paper, we consider an active sonar system that is repeatedly sending a linear frequency modulated signal of 6~20 kHz in the shallow water of 100m depth. The proposed approach is to model consecutively received reflected signals and to measure their modeling error magnitudes which decide the existence of an object placed on seabed depending on relative magnitude with respect to threshold value. The feature of this approach is to only require an assumption that the seabed consists of an homogeneous sediment, and not to require a prior information on the specific properties of the sediment. We verify the proposed approach in terms of detection probability through computer simulation.

A Comparison of Concrete Median Barriers in terms of Safety Performance using Computer Simulation (컴퓨터 모의층돌시험을 통한 콘크리트 중앙분리대 방호울타리 형식별 성능비교 연구)

  • 정봉조;장명순
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.115-125
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    • 2003
  • The concrete median barriers are the most popular safety appurtenance that can be installed on narrow medians and are effective in keeping uncontrolled vehicles from crossing into opposing lanes of traffic. It is necessary to install and maintain median barriers because it is very difficult to reserve enough room required for medians in KOREA. Also, concrete median barriers are accepted as the actual alternatives for median barriers, mostly because they require almost no maintenance even after serious collisions. Typical concrete median barriers are 810mm high and have 596mm high glare screens on top of them. However we have experienced a number of "climb" and "roll-over" accidents of heavy vehicles and most of all, there have been some serious accidents caused by the part of broken glare screens. So the improvement study of concrete median barriers started. Prior to this study, a new type of concrete median barrier was suggested which is 1,270mm high and has no glare screens on top of it. So it was required to compare the properties of various types of concrete median barriers including the new type to find the optimal type of concrete median barrier. In this study, we have evaluated the characteristics of four types of concrete median barriers (New Jersey type, F type, constant slope type, and wall type). We have performed many computer simulations for the evaluation of the crashworthiness of them, and through the simulations we have tried to find a proper type of concrete median barrier. Through the computer simulations, we evaluated the structural stability and safety of the four types of concrete median barriers. We confirmed the structural stability and safety of them But in regard to the probability of "roll-over" of heavy vehicles, the higher concrete median barriers showed better performances than the lower. As the result of this study a new type of concrete median barrier was recommended.

The Characteristics and Survival Rates of Evergreen Broad-Leaved Tree Plantations in Korea (난대상록활엽수종 조림지 활착률과 영향인자)

  • Park, Joon-Hyung;Jung, Su-Young;Lee, Kwang-Soo;Lee, Ho-Sang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.108 no.4
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    • pp.513-521
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    • 2019
  • With rapid climate change and increasing global warming, the distribution of evergreen broad-leaved trees (EBLTs) is gradually expanding to the inland regions of Korea. The aim of the present study was to analyze the survival rate of 148 EBLT plantations measuring 180 ha and to determine the optimal plantation size that would help in coping with climate change in the warm, temperate climate zone of the Korean peninsula. For enhancing the reliability of our estimated survival model, we selected a set of 11 control variables that may have also influenced the survival rates of the EBLTs in the 148 plantations. The results of partial correlation analysis showed that the survival rate of 67.0±26.9 of the EBLTs in the initial plantation year was primarily correlated with plantation type by the crown closure of the upper story of the forest, wind exposure, and precipitation. For predicting the probability of survival by quantification theory, 148 plots were surveyed and analyzed with 11 environmental site factors. Survival rate was in the order of plantation type by the crown closure of upper story of the forest, wind exposure, total cumulative precipitation for two weeks prior to planting, and slope stiffness in the descending order of score range in the estimated survival model for the EBLTs with the fact that survival rate increased with shade rate of upper story to some extent.

The Study for Performance Analysis of Software Reliability Model using Fault Detection Rate based on Logarithmic and Exponential Type (로그 및 지수형 결함 발생률에 따른 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 관한 신뢰도 성능분석 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.306-311
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, reliability software cost model considering logarithmic and exponential fault detection rate based on observations from the process of software product testing was studied. Adding new fault probability using the Goel-Okumoto model that is widely used in the field of reliability problems presented. When correcting or modifying the software, finite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process model. For analysis of software reliability model considering the time-dependent fault detection rate, the parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation of inter-failure time data was made. The logarithmic and exponential fault detection model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 80% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.