• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prior Probability

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Using Bayesian network and Intuitionistic fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to assess the risk of water inrush from fault in subsea tunnel

  • Song, Qian;Xue, Yiguo;Li, Guangkun;Su, Maoxin;Qiu, Daohong;Kong, Fanmeng;Zhou, Binghua
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.605-614
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    • 2021
  • Water inrush from fault is one of the most severe hazards during tunnel excavation. However, the traditional evaluation methods are deficient in both quantitative evaluation and uncertainty handling. In this paper, a comprehensive methodology method combined intuitionistic fuzzy AHP with a Bayesian network for the risk assessment of water inrush from fault in the subsea tunnel was proposed. Through the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to replace the traditional expert scoring method to determine the prior probability of the node in the Bayesian network. After the field data is normalized, it is classified according to the data range. Then, using obtained results into the Bayesian network, conduct a risk assessment with field data which have processed of water inrush disaster on the tunnel. Simultaneously, a sensitivity analysis technique was utilized to investigate each factor's contribution rate to determine the most critical factor affecting tunnel water inrush risk. Taking Qingdao Kiaochow Bay Tunnel as an example, by predictive analysis of fifteen fault zones, thirteen of them are consistent with the actual situation which shows that the IFAHP-Bayesian Network method is feasible and applicable. Through sensitivity analysis, it is shown that the Fissure development and Apparent resistivity are more critical comparing than other factor especially the Permeability coefficient and Fault dip. The method can provide planners and engineers with adequate decision-making support, which is vital to prevent and control tunnel water inrush.

AWGN Removal using Laplace Distribution and Weighted Mask (라플라스 분포와 가중치 마스크를 이용한 AWGN 제거)

  • Park, Hwa-Jung;Kim, Nam-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.12
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    • pp.1846-1852
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    • 2021
  • In modern society, various digital devices are being distributed in a wide range of fields due to the fourth industrial revolution and the development of IoT technology. However, noise is generated in the process of acquiring or transmitting an image, and not only damages the information, but also affects the system, causing errors and incorrect operation. AWGN is a representative noise among image noise. As a method for removing noise, prior research has been conducted, and among them, AF, A-TMF, and MF are the representative methods. Existing filters have a disadvantage that smoothing occurs in areas with high frequency components because it is difficult to consider the characteristics of images. Therefore, the proposed algorithm calculates the standard deviation distribution to effectively eliminate noise even in the high frequency domain, and then calculates the final output by applying the probability density function weight of the Laplace distribution using the curve fitting method.

Chinese SOEs and the Completion of Cross-border M&As: The Moderating Role of M&A Experience

  • Luo Jing;Young-Gon Cho;Jaekyung Ko
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.118-135
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships among Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs), previous M&A experience, and the probability of deal completion in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBMAs). Since Chinese SOEs tend to be recognized by host countries as agents of their home country government, this study argues that SOEs will face difficulties in completing CBMA deals. However, the study expects that these difficulties may vary depending on whether the firm has previous M&A experience because firms can gain the knowledge and capabilities necessary to implement subsequent M&As successfully from past M&A experience. Design/methodology - To investigate our argument, we conduct a logistic regression using a sample of 363 CBMA deals from 304 Chinese publicly listed firms during 2007 to 2017. We used SOEs as an independent variable, experience of domestic and foreign M&As as moderating variables, respectively, and CBMA deal completion as the dependent variable. Findings - The study shows a negative and significant relationship between Chinese SOEs and the completion likelihood of CBMA deals. We find that this negative relationship is strengthened when the firm had prior domestic M&A experience, whereas foreign M&A experience alleviated the negative relationship. Originality/value - The issue of government ownership has remained unclear since government intervention has both advantages and disadvantages in pursuing CBMAs. Our findings support literature that argues Chinese SOEs face legitimacy concerns in the host countries, thereby lowering their CBMA deal completion likelihood. Furthermore, the study enriches the literature by identifying different moderating effects of domestic and foreign M&A experience on the negative relationship between SOEs and CBMA deal completion.

Analysis of Main Factors in aids to Navigation Accidents using a Bayesian Network (베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 항로표지사고 주요 요인 분석)

  • Sangwon Park;Youngsoo Park;Beom-Sik Moon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.324-330
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    • 2023
  • Aids to navigation, which provide information about a ship's position, direction, and the location of obstacles, are crucial for uninterrupted maritime services. This study aimed to analyze accidents involving aids to navigation that resulted in service disruptions and identify the key factors associated with these accidents. Aids to navigation accident data from 2000 to 2022 were utilized to achieve this. We categorized accidents by accident type, cause, region, season, and type of navigation aid and established a network through correlation analysis. Bayesian networks based on aids to navigation accidents were assigned prior probabilities, and the factors that increased the probability of accidents for different types of aids to navigation were identified. The findings can be used to infer the causes of unreported aids to navigation accidents and serve as foundational data for the prevention of such accidents.

The Moderating Role of Need for Cognitive Closure and Temporal Self-Construal in Consumer Satisfaction and Repurchase Consistency (만족도와 재구매 간 관계에 있어서 상황적 영향의 조절효과에 관한 연구 - 인지 종결 욕구와 일시적 자아 해석의 조절효과를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Min Hoon;Ha, Young Won
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.95-119
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    • 2010
  • Although there have been many studies regarding the inconsistency between consumers' attitudes and behavior, prior research has almost exclusively focused on the relationship between the attitude before behavior and the initial behavior. Relatively little research has been conducted on consumer satisfaction after purchase and post-purchase behavior. This research proposed that the relationship between satisfaction and post-purchase behavior is moderated by consumers' psychological characteristics such as need for cognitive closure(NCC) and temporal self-construal(SC). The need for cognitive closure refers to individuals' desire for a firm answer to a question and an aversion toward ambiguity. We assumed the need for cognitive closure as a major moderating variable because it is judged that the requirement for cognition clearly varies between when a consumer repurchases the same product and seeks a new alternative. Individuals who tend to end cognition due to time constraints or inappropriate conditions may display considerable cognitive impatience or impulsivity and has a higher probability in repurchasing the same product than a consumer without such limitations. They would avoid further consideration for new alternatives and the likelihood of the repurchase for prior alternative would increase. As hypothesized, significant moderating effect of the NCC was confirmed. This result gives a significant implication for a corporate to establish effective marketing strategies. For a corporate or product brand that has been occupying the market after entering the market earlier, it would be effective to maintain need for cognitive closure high in the existing consumers and thereby preventing the consumers from being interested in the new alternatives. On the other hand, new brands that have just entered the market need to lower the potential consumers' need for cognitive closure so that the consumers can be interested in new alternatives. Along with need for cognitive closure, temporal self-construal also turned out to moderate the satisfaction-repurchase. temporal SC reflects the extent to which individuals view themselves either as an individuated entity or in relation to others. Consumers under a temporarily independent SC would repurchase former alternative again according to their prior satisfaction and evaluation. In contrast, consumers in temporal interdependent SC tended to switch to a new alternative because they value interpersonal relationships above anything else and have a tendency to rely heavily on in-group opinions. When they are confronted with additional opinions, it is highly probable that he/she will choose a new product as an alternative. By proving the impact that temporal self-construal has on repurchasing behavior, this study is providing the marketers with new standards for establishing successful promotional strategies. For example, if the buyer and the user is the same for a product, it would be effective for the seller to convince the consumer to make decision subjectively by encouraging temporal independent self-construal. On the contrary, in the case where the purchase is made by an individual but the product is consumed by a group of people. For example, a housewife is more likely to choose the products or brands that her husband or children prefer rather than the ones that she likes by herself. In that case, emphasizing how the whole family can be satisfied and happy about the product would be effective for promoting repurchase.

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Effect of the Suicide Prevention Program to the Impulsive Psychology of the Elementary School Student (자살예방 프로그램이 초등학교 충동심리에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Soo Jin;Kang, Ho Jung;Cho, Won Cheol;Lee, Tae Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2013
  • In this study, the early suicide prevention program was applied to the elementary school students and compared the prior & post effect of the program, and verified the status of psychology change like emotional status, or temptation to take a suicide, and presented the possibility as a suicide prevention program. The period of adolescence is the very unstable period in the process of growth being cognitively immature, emotionally impulsive period. It is the period emotionally unstable and unpredictable possible to select the method of suicide as an extreme method to escape the reality, or impulsive problem solving against small conflict or dispute situation. Many stress of the student such as recent nuclear family, expectation of parents to their children, education problem, socio-environmental elements, individual psychological factor lead students to the extreme activity of suicide in recent days. In this study, the scope of stress experienced in the elementary school as well as idea and degree of temptation regarding suicide by the suicide prevention program were identified, and through prevention program such as meditation training, breath training and through experience of anger control, emotion-expression, self overcome and establish positive self-identity and make understanding Self-control, Self-esteem & preciousness of life based on which the effect to suicide prevention was analyzed. The study was made targeting 51 students of 2 classes of 6th grade of elementary school of Goyang-si and processed 30 minutes every morning focused on through experience & activity of the principle & method of brain science. The data was collected for 20 times before starting morning class by using Suicide Probability Scale(herein SPS-A) designed to predict effectively suicide Probability, suicide risk prediction scale, surveyed by 7 areas such as Positive outlook, Within the family closeness, Impulsivity, Interpersonal hostility, Hopelessness, Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident. Analytical methods and validation was used the Wilcoxon's signed rank test using SPSS Program. Though the process of program in short period, but there was a effective and positive results in the 7 areas in the average comparison. But in the t-test result, there was a different outcome. It indicated changes in the 3 questionnaires (No.7, No.14, No.19) out of 31 SPS-A questionnaires, and there was a no change to the rest item. It also indicated more changes of the students in the class A than class B. And in case of the class A students, psychological changes were verified in the areas of Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident among 7 areas after the program was processed. Through this study, it could be verified that different results could be derived depending on the Student tendency, program professional(teacher in charge, processing lecturer). The suicide prevention program presented in this article can be a help in learning and suicide prevention with consistent systematization, activation through emotion and impulse control based on emotional stress relief and positive self-identity recovery, stabilization of brain waves, and let the short period program not to be died out but to be continued connecting from childhood to adolescence capable to make surrounding environment for spiritual, physical healthy growth for which this could be an effective program for suicide prevention of the social problem.

A Bayesian Estimation of Price for Commercial Property: Using subjective priors and a kriging technique (상업용 토지 가격의 베이지안 추정: 주관적 사전지식과 크리깅 기법의 활용을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Chang Ro;Eum, Young Seob;Park, Key Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.761-778
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    • 2014
  • There has been relatively little study to model price for commercial property because of its low transaction volume in the market. Despite of this thin market character, this paper tried to estimate prices for commercial lots as accurate as possible. We constructed a model whose components consist of mean structure(global trend), exponential covariance function and a pure error term, and applied it to actual sales price data of Seoul. We explicitly took account of spatial autocorrelation of land price by utilizing a kriging technique, a representative method of spatial interpolation, because the land price of commercial lots has feature of differential price forming pattern depending on submarkets they belong to. In addition, we chose to apply a bayesian kriging to overcome data scarcity by incorporating experts' knowledge into prior probability distribution. The chosen model's excellent performance was verified by the result from validation data. We confirmed that the excellence of the model is attributed to incorporating both autocorexperts' knowledge and spatial autocorrelation in the model construction. This paper is differentiated from previous studies in the sense that it applied the bayesian kriging technique to estimate price for commercial lots and explicitly combined experts' knowledge with data. It is expected that the result of this paper would provide a useful guide for the circumstances under which property price has to be estimated reliably based on sparse transaction data.

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Risk Stratification for Serosal Invasion Using Preoperative Predictors in Patients with Advanced Gastric Cancer

  • Park, Sung-Sil;Min, Jae-Seok;Lee, Kyu-Jae;Jin, Sung-Ho;Park, Sunhoo;Bang, Ho-Yoon;Yu, Hwang-Jong;Lee, Jong-Inn
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.149-155
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: Although serosal invasion is a critical predisposing factor for peritoneal dissemination in advanced gastric cancer, the accuracy of preoperative assessment using routine imaging studies is unsatisfactory. This study was conducted to identify high-risk group for serosal invasion using preoperative factors in patients with advanced gastric cancer. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinicopathological features of 3,529 advanced gastric cancer patients with Borrmann type I/II/III who underwent gastrectomy at Korea Cancer Center Hospital between 1991 and 2005. We stratified patients into low-(${\leq}40%$), intermediate-(40~70%), and high-risk (>70%) groups, according to the probability of serosal invasion. Results: Borrmann type, size, longitudinal and circumferential location, and histology of tumors were independent risk factors for serosal invasion. Most tumors of whole stomach location or encircling type had serosal invasion, so they belonged to high-risk group. Patients were subdivided into 12 subgroups in combination of Borrmann type, size, and histology. A subgroup with Borrmann type II, large size (${\geq}7$ cm), and undifferentiated histology and 2 subgroups with Borrmann type III, large size, and regardless of histology belonged to high-risk group and corresponded to 25% of eligible patients. Conclusions: This study have documented high-risk group for serosal invasion using preoperative predictors. And risk stratification for serosal invasion through the combination with imaging studies may collaboratively improve the accuracy of preoperative assessment, reduce the number of eligible patients for further staging laparoscopy, and optimize therapeutic strategy for each individual patient prior to surgery.

Evaluation of Nondestructive Evaluation Size Measurement for Integrity Assessment of Axial Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking in Steam Generator Tubes (증기발생기 전열관 외면 축균열 건전성 평가를 위한 비파괴검사 크기 측정 평가)

  • Joo, Kyung-Mun;Hong, Jun-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2015
  • Recently, the initiation of outside diameter stress corrosion cracking (ODSCC) at the tube support plate region of domestic steam generators (SG) with Alloy600 HTMA tubes has been increasing. As a result, SGs with Alloy600 HTMA tubes must be replaced early or are scheduled to be replaced prior to their designed lifetime. ODSCC is one of the biggest threats to the integrity of SG tubes. Therefore, the accurate evaluation of tube integrity to determine ODSCC is needed. Eddy current testing (ECT) is conducted periodically, and its results could be input as parameters for evaluating the integrity of SG tubes. The reliability of an ECT inspection system depends on the performance of the inspection technique and abilty of the analyst. The detection probability and ECT sizing error of degradation are considered to be the performance indices of a nondestructive evaluation (NDE) system. This paper introduces an optimized evaluation method for ECT, as well as the sizing error, including the analyst performance. This study was based on the results of a round robin program in which 10 inspection analysts from 5 different companies participated. The analysis of ECT sizing results was performed using a linear regression model relating the true defect size data to the measured ECT size data.

Life-Cycle Cost-Effective Optimum Design of Steel Bridges Considering Environmental Stressors (환경영향인자를 고려한 강교의 생애주기비용 최적설계)

  • Lee, Kwang Min;Cho, Hyo Nam;Cha, Cheol Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.17 no.2 s.75
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    • pp.227-241
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a practical and realistic Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) optimum design methodology for steel bridges considering the long-term effect of environmental stressors such as corrosion and heavy truck traffics on bridge reliability. The LCC functions considered in the LCC optimization consist of initial cost, expected life-cycle maintenance cost, and expected life-cycle rehabilitation costs including repair/replacement costs, loss of contents or fatality and injury losses, road user costs, and indirect socio-economic losses. For the assessment of the life-cycle rehabilitation costs, the annual probability of failure, which depends upon the prior and updated load and resistance histories, should be accounted for. For the purpose, Nowak live load model and a modified corrosion propagation model, which takes into consideration corrosion initiation, corrosion rate, and repainting effect, are adopted in this study. The proposed methodology is applied to the LCC optimum design problem of an actual steel box girder bridge with 3 continuous spans (40m+50m+40m=130m). Various sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the effects of various design parameters and conditions on the LCC-effectiveness. From the numerical investigation, it has been observed that local corrosion environments and the volume of truck traffic significantly influence the LCC-effective optimum design of steel bridges. Thus, these conditions should be considered as crucial parameters for the optimum LCC-effective design.