• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prior Probability

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Economic Value Estimation of Agricultural ODA Projects Using Contingent Valuation Method : Focused on the KOPIA of Rural Development Administration (조건부가치측정법을 활용한 공적개발원조의 경제적 가치 추정: 농촌진흥청 해외농업기술개발사업(KOPIA)을 중심으로)

  • Moon, Kwang-Min
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.548-560
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    • 2021
  • This study estimates the amount of willingness to pay of the general public by applying the contingent value method to the Korea Program for International cooperation in Agricultural technology(KOPIA), a representative project of the Rural Development Administration. Prior to measuring the amount of willingness to pay for the KOPIA project, a survey of the perception of agriculture and rural areas and respondents' basic perception of public development assistance showed a positive perception of official development assistance in general. In particular, many respondents said that aid from the international community in the past contributed to Korea's economic and social development along with the importance of the international community helping the poor in underdeveloped countries. As a result of estimating the acceptance probability regression model by including the public awareness as a variable, the higher the income of the respondents and the more positive the perception of public development aid, the higher the amount of willingness to pay. The average annual payment amount per household derived from the acceptance probability regression model was estimated to be about 30,729 won.Based on the results of this analysis, several policy implications related to the public development aid policy of Korea were presented.

A Study on the Analysis of Marine Accidents on Fishing Ships Using Accident Cause Data (사고 데이터의 주요 원인을 이용한 어선 해양사고 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Sang-A Park;Deuk-Jin Park
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2023
  • Many studies have analyzed marine accidents, and since marine accident information is updated every year, it is necessary to periodically analyze and identify the causes. The purpose of this study was to prevent accidents by identifying and analyzing the causes of marine accidents using previous and new data. In marine accident data, 1,921 decisions by the Korea Maritime Safety Tribunal on marine accidents on fishing ships over 16 years were collected in consideration of the specificity of fishing ships, and 1,917 cases of accident notification text history by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries over 3 years were collected. The decision data and text data were classified according to variables and quantified. Prior probability was calculated using a Bayesian network using the quantified data, and fishing ship marine accidents were predicted using backward propagation. Among the two collected datasets, the decision data did not provide the types of fishing ships and fishing areas, and because not all fishing ship accidents were included in the decision data, the text data were selected. The probability of a fishing ship marine accident in which engine damage would occur in the West Sea was 0.0000031%, as calculated by backward propagation. The expected effect of this study is that it is possible to analyze marine accidents suitable for the characteristics of actual fishing ships using new accident notification text data to analyze fishing ship marine accidents. In the future, we plan to conduct research on the causal relationship between variables that affect fishing ship marine accidents.

The Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum Signal Detection Using The Triple Correlation Estimator Value (3차 상관 추정치를 이용한 직접 시퀀스 확산대역 신호의 검출)

  • 임연주;조영하;박상규;임정석
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.29 no.8C
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    • pp.1025-1033
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    • 2004
  • This paper covers the detection of covert direct sequence spread spectrum signal without the PN(Pseudo Noise) code information. Due to its low probability of interception, the difficulty of spectrum surveillance increases. Detection parameters are the signal existence of given bandwidth, the length of spreading sequence used by transmitter, and the identification of spreading code for detected chip length. The triple correlation function(TCF) value which is one of the higher order statistical signal processing techniques can be used to detect spread spectrum signal without a prior knowledge, but, it has weakness that TCF results depend on the spread data sequence in actual application. This paper proposes the new scheme that not only overcomes the weakness but also presents better performance than the traditional TCF scheme. The performance comparison of conventional TCF with proposed technique shows that the triple correlation estimator(TCE) has better detection capability.

A Korean Homonym Disambiguation System Based on Statistical, Model Using weights

  • Kim, Jun-Su;Lee, Wang-Woo;Kim, Chang-Hwan;Ock, Cheol-young
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Language and Information Conference
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    • 2002.02a
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    • pp.166-176
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    • 2002
  • A homonym could be disambiguated by another words in the context as nouns, predicates used with the homonym. This paper using semantic information (co-occurrence data) obtained from definitions of part of speech (POS) tagged UMRD-S$^1$), In this research, we have analyzed the result of an experiment on a homonym disambiguation system based on statistical model, to which Bayes'theorem is applied, and suggested a model established of the weight of sense rate and the weight of distance to the adjacent words to improve the accuracy. The result of applying the homonym disambiguation system using semantic information to disambiguating homonyms appearing on the dictionary definition sentences showed average accuracy of 98.32% with regard to the most frequent 200 homonyms. We selected 49 (31 substantives and 18 predicates) out of the 200 homonyms that were used in the experiment, and performed an experiment on 50,703 sentences extracted from Sejong Project tagged corpus (i.e. a corpus of morphologically analyzed words) of 3.5 million words that includes one of the 49 homonyms. The result of experimenting by assigning the weight of sense rate(prior probability) and the weight of distance concerning the 5 words at the front/behind the homonym to be disambiguated showed better accuracy than disambiguation systems based on existing statistical models by 2.93%,

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Repeated Transsphenoidal Surgery for Pituitary Tumors (경접형골동접근법에 의한 뇌하수체종양의 재수술)

  • Koh, Young-Cho;Yoo, Heon;Kim, Chang-Hyun;Whang, Do-Yun;Jang, Jin-Soon;Park, Hyo-Il
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.929-934
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    • 2000
  • Objective : The results of secondary transsphenoidal surgery(TSS) for either residual or recurring pituitary adenomas have been reported to be unfavorable. To evaluate the effectiveness of secondary TSS, we analyzed the surgical results of residual or recurred pituitary adenomas in patients who underwent secondary TSS from 1992 to 1998. Material and Methods : Among the 95 patients who underwent TSS during this period, 14(15%) received repeated TSS. Two of the 14 patients underwent three TSS. Among the 11 patients with pituitary adenomas, three had nonfunctioning tumors ; six prolachnomas ; two GH-secreting adenomas. The remaining three patieats had craniopharyngioma, pituitary abscess and hemangioendothelioma respectively. The interval between the two surgical procedures ranged from one week to 33 months(mean ; 12 months). Causes of the secondary TSS were tumor recurrence in 11 patients, intentional staged operation in three, persistent disease despite medical therapy and CSF leak after initial operation in one respectively. Treatments prior to secondary TSS were medical treatment only in eight patients. Results : During the repeated operationtss some adhesion was noted in septal mucous membrane. The sphenoid cavity was filled with fibrous tissue which correlated with the methods of reconstruction of the sellar floor at the previous operation. There was no statistically significant difference in success rate of surgery between the initial and the second TSS(86% vs 81%). The complication rate was similar between the two procedures. There was no statistically significant factors affecting the results of second TSS. Conclusion : Transsphenoidal reoperation was regarded as a suitable approach for treating recurrent pituitary adenomas in spite of some degree of operative difficulties. In patients with transsphenoidally resectable tumor residuals or recurrences confirmed by magnetic resonance imaging, remissions can be obtained with high probability, especially in secondary surgery after an staged decompression.

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Determinants for the Employment of the Disabled: Focusing on Differences by Age Group (장애인 고용의 결정변인: 연령집단별 차이를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyo-Sung;Ko, Greene
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.144-155
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to overcome the limitations of prior studies that have failed to take into account the impact of psycho-social factors on the employment of people with disabilities as well as the differences in employment by life stage. This study employs a research model that includes psycho-social factors along with human capital to examine how the determinants of employment differ for the disabled by life stage. The analysis in this study takes the form of logistic regression, using data from the fifth wave of the Korea Welfare Panel Survey. Analysis results show that the employment probability of young people with disabilities is significantly associated with their experience of discrimination, with their chance of employment decreasing when they have more experience of discrimination. Middle-aged people with disabilities are more likely to be employed when they have a lower level of education, a better health condition and a higher level of labor ability. For the disabled elderly, their labor ability is the only factor affecting their possibility of employment; they have a higher chance of getting a job when they have a higher level of labor ability.

Analyzing the Impact for Housing Occupied Form of HouseNomad ('하우스노마드족'의 주거점유형태에 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Yun, Jin-Young;Oh, Jongryul
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.955-963
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    • 2014
  • According to the "Population and Housing Census of 2010", announced by the National Statistical Office, "House Nomad group" was increased by more than 70% compared to 2005. Emergence of House Nomad tribe about the cause of the increase of influence and House Nomad tribe give the housing market, but prior to the discussion often, there is no place that still it became clearly evident in the research. The purpose of this study, are looking for the emergence and increasing cause of House Nomad group in terms of consumption behavior of the house. For this reason, We use the Population and Housing Census 1% of the data 2010. and Multinomial Logit Models., is a useful method that can be utilized when there is no rank and order the consumer choice. The results were as follows. House Nomad group was found to be higher probability of living place and good environmental characteristics of housing that has been expressed in the properties of the housing. Also appeared to have a relatively longer time commuting. And that residential mobility is high.

Preventing Communication Disruption in the Urban Environment Using RRPS (RSU Request Priority Scheduling) (도심환경에서 통신 단절 예방을 위한 RRPS(RSU Request Priority Scheduling)설계)

  • Park, Seok-Gyu;Ahn, Heui-Hak;Jeuong, Yi-Na
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.584-590
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    • 2016
  • This paper proposed "Priority Scheduling and MultiPath Routing Protocol (RRPS) for preventing communication disruption in the urban environment" to minimize the disconnection or disruption of V2I and V2V communication in the urban environment where communication is frequently disconnected according to density. The flow of the RRPS is explained as follows. RSU Request Priority Scheduling (RRPS) is used to apply the priority of the request message prior to reaching the end line by using the Start Line and End Line, which are the management areas of the RSU). This paper also proposed MPRP (Multi Path Routing Protocol) design to set up the multipath to the destination. As a result, the proposed RRPS improves the processing efficiency of V2I by applying priority scheduling to the message of the vehicle requesting the information in the RSU, and can prevent the communication disconnection. Thereby, it is improved the transmission success probability.

The Advantageous Bargaining Sequence in Sequential Bargaining with Multiple Parties (다수의 상대방과 연속 거래시의 유리한 거래 순서에 대한 연구)

    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.209-222
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, we study a bargaining order problem where one buyer sequentially bargains with two sellers whose reservation prices are unknown to the buyer but correlated. Our main question is who the buyer should bargain first with to maximize his expected payoff. This type of problem is widely applicable to business and political situations where one party negotiates with multiple parties sequentially. One of the most important element in a sequential bargaining is "linkage effect" which exists when the aggreement of the previous bargaining affects the outcome of the following bargaining. To examine "linkage effect", we assume that the sellers'objects are similar so that the sellers' reservation prices are correlated. In addition, to consider incomplete information aspect regarding reservation prices, it is assumed that the sellers' reservation prices are unknown to the buyer. That is, we deal with one sided incomplete information case. In our model, there are two stages in each of which the buyer meets one seller. Since we are concerned with the bargaining order, we consider two different bargaining orders. Using game theory, we find a perfect Bayesian equilibrium and compute the buyer's expected payoff for each bargaining order. Finally we identify the advantageous bargaining order for the buyer by comparing the expected payoffs obtained under two different bargaining orders. Our results are as follows: the advantageous bargaining order depends on the prior probability of the seller type. However, in general, the buyer should bargain first with the seller whose object is less valuable to the buyer. The basic reason for our result is that the buyer wants to experiment in the first stage to find out the sellers' reservation prices and in doing so, to minimize the experimental cost and maximize potential gain in case of negotiation failure in the first stage. in the first stage.

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The working experience of internal control personnel and crash risk

  • RYU, Hae-Young;CHAE, Soo-Joon
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.10 no.12
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2019
  • Purpose : This study examines The impact of human resource investment in internal control on stock price crash risk. Effective internal control ensures that information provided is complete and accurate, financial statements are reliable. By overseeing management, internal control systems can reduce agency costs between management and outside parties. In Korea, firms have to disclose information about internal control systems. The working experience of human resources in internal control systems is also provided for interested parties. If a firm hires more experienced internal control personnel, it can better facilitate the disclosure of information. Prior studies reported that information asymmetry between managers and investors increases future stock price crash risk. Therefore, the longer working experience internal control personnel have, the lower probability stock crashes have. Research design, data and methodology : This study analyzed the association between the working experience of internal control personnel and crash risk using regression analysis on KOSPI listed companies for fiscal years 2016 through 2017. The sample consists of 1,034 firm-years of non-financial firms whose fiscal year end on December 31. Career spanning data of internal control personnel was collected from internal control reports. The professionalism(IC_EXP) was measured as the logarithm of the average working experience of internal control personnel in months. Negative conditional skewness(NSKEW) and down-to-up volatility (DUVOL) are used to measure firm-specific crash risk. Both measures are based on firm-specific weekly returns derived from the expanded market model. Results : We find that work experience in internal control environment is negatively related to stock price crashes. Specifically, skewness(NSKEW) and volatility (DUVOL) are reduced when firms have longer tenure of human resources in internal control division. The results imply that firms with experienced internal control personnel are less likely to experience stock price crashes. Conclusions : Stock price crashes occur when investors realize that stock prices have been inflated due to information asymmetry. There is a learning effect when internal control processes are done repetitively. Thus, firms with more experienced internal control personnel could manage their internal control more effectively. The results of this study suggest that firms could decrease information asymmetry by investing in human resources for their internal control system.