• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prior Probability

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The Negative Effect of COVID 19 Pandemic on Sports Leisure Recreation Retailers, and its Solutions

  • SEONG, Dong-Ho;SEONG, Nakhun
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.91-100
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: The sports industry is a major form of leisure and entertainment, but the industry was tremendously affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. This study gives solutions for sports leisure retail stores to the effects of the Covid-19 crisis on consumers' sports products purchasing habits and then gives a logical conclusion regarding the findings of the topic. Research design, data and methodology: Scant research is available to feedback for owners and managers of sports leisure retail stores which elements could be considered to recover their business prior to the pandemic. For achieving this, this study investigated total 284 responses in the retail stores and conducted the ANOVA analysis to compare the level of intensity on the impact Covid 19 pandemic. Results: Our findings suggests that there was a statistically recognizable difference at the significance level of probability between the mean value of the impact index of Covid 19 pandemic and key recovery strategies, indicating the high degree of Covid 19 impact can be reducing by four solutions. Conclusions: Finally, this study concludes the specific entertainment elements that influence the purchasing behavior of consumers will ensure that the Sports industry deals with its internal problems first without necessarily looking at the outside factors such as the pandemic.

Modulation Recognition of BPSK/QPSK Signals based on Features in the Graph Domain

  • Yang, Li;Hu, Guobing;Xu, Xiaoyang;Zhao, Pinjiao
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.3761-3779
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    • 2022
  • The performance of existing recognition algorithms for binary phase shift keying (BPSK) and quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK) signals degrade under conditions of low signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). Hence, a novel recognition algorithm based on features in the graph domain is proposed in this study. First, the power spectrum of the squared candidate signal is truncated by a rectangular window. Thereafter, the graph representation of the truncated spectrum is obtained via normalization, quantization, and edge construction. Based on the analysis of the connectivity difference of the graphs under different hypotheses, the sum of degree (SD) of the graphs is utilized as a discriminate feature to classify BPSK and QPSK signals. Moreover, we prove that the SD is a Schur-concave function with respect to the probability vector of the vertices (PVV). Extensive simulations confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, and its superiority to the listed model-driven-based (MDB) algorithms in terms of recognition performance under low SNRs and computational complexity. As it is confirmed that the proposed method reduces the computational complexity of existing graph-based algorithms, it can be applied in modulation recognition of radar or communication signals in real-time processing, and does not require any prior knowledge about the training sets, channel coefficients, or noise power.

Conflicts of Interest in the Research Publication Process-A Case Study Approach

  • KANG, Eungoo;HWANG, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of Research and Publication Ethics
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: A conflict of interest is defined broadly as a scenario in which one's responsibilities and self-interest collide in a manner that has a significant probability of corrupting one's discernments, motivations, actions, desires, values, and judgments. This study aims to investigate various cases of conflict of interest. Research design, data and methodology: Our study used the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) to identify resources. The eligibility of selected prior studies thoroughly was investigated whether they are suitable for the topic of present study. Finally, we collected total 15 previous studies published between 2000 and 2021. Results: Research findings indicate that there are three main cases that might cause a conflict of interest and mandated research ethics education might provide researchers with the tools to identify and battle the temptations and biases provided by conflicts of interest. Researchers could likely be better prepared for conflicts of interest if they investigated the moral difficulties associated with them in advance. Conclusions: Researchers might evade deliberate or unconscious detriment of duties, and also objectivity loss because of the siren song of self-interest by escaping situations whereby they may be tempted to shirk their responsibilities, not to remark the hassles of unveiling conflicts.

Prediction of Global Industrial Water Demand using Machine Learning

  • Panda, Manas Ranjan;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.156-156
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    • 2022
  • Explicitly spatially distributed and reliable data on industrial water demand is very much important for both policy makers and researchers in order to carry a region-specific analysis of water resources management. However, such type of data remains scarce particularly in underdeveloped and developing countries. Current research is limited in using different spatially available socio-economic, climate data and geographical data from different sources in accordance to predict industrial water demand at finer resolution. This study proposes a random forest regression (RFR) model to predict the industrial water demand at 0.50× 0.50 spatial resolution by combining various features extracted from multiple data sources. The dataset used here include National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP)/Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night-time light (NTL), Global Power Plant database, AQUASTAT country-wise industrial water use data, Elevation data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Road density, Crop land, Population, Precipitation, Temperature, and Aridity. Compared with traditional regression algorithms, RF shows the advantages of high prediction accuracy, not requiring assumptions of a prior probability distribution, and the capacity to analyses variable importance. The final RF model was fitted using the parameter settings of ntree = 300 and mtry = 2. As a result, determinate coefficients value of 0.547 is achieved. The variable importance of the independent variables e.g. night light data, elevation data, GDP and population data used in the training purpose of RF model plays the major role in predicting the industrial water demand.

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Stochastic identification of masonry parameters in 2D finite elements continuum models

  • Giada Bartolini;Anna De Falco;Filippo Landi
    • Coupled systems mechanics
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.429-444
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    • 2023
  • The comprehension and structural modeling of masonry constructions is fundamental to safeguard the integrity of built cultural assets and intervene through adequate actions, especially in earthquake-prone regions. Despite the availability of several modeling strategies and modern computing power, modeling masonry remains a great challenge because of still demanding computational efforts, constraints in performing destructive or semi-destructive in-situ tests, and material uncertainties. This paper investigates the shear behavior of masonry walls by applying a plane-stress FE continuum model with the Modified Masonry-like Material (MMLM). Epistemic uncertainty affecting input parameters of the MMLM is considered in a probabilistic framework. After appointing a suitable probability density function to input quantities according to prior engineering knowledge, uncertainties are propagated to outputs relying on gPCE-based surrogate models to considerably speed up the forward problem-solving. The sensitivity of the response to input parameters is evaluated through the computation of Sobol' indices pointing out the parameters more worthy to be further investigated, when dealing with the seismic assessment of masonry buildings. Finally, masonry mechanical properties are calibrated in a probabilistic setting with the Bayesian approach to the inverse problem based on the available measurements obtained from the experimental load-displacement curves provided by shear compression in-situ tests.

Perceptional Change of a New Product, DMB Phone

  • Kim, Ju-Young;Ko, Deok-Im
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.59-88
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    • 2008
  • Digital Convergence means integration between industry, technology, and contents, and in marketing, it usually comes with creation of new types of product and service under the base of digital technology as digitalization progress in electro-communication industries including telecommunication, home appliance, and computer industries. One can see digital convergence not only in instruments such as PC, AV appliances, cellular phone, but also in contents, network, service that are required in production, modification, distribution, re-production of information. Convergence in contents started around 1990. Convergence in network and service begins as broadcasting and telecommunication integrates and DMB(digital multimedia broadcasting), born in May, 2005 is the symbolic icon in this trend. There are some positive and negative expectations about DMB. The reason why two opposite expectations exist is that DMB does not come out from customer's need but from technology development. Therefore, customers might have hard time to interpret the real meaning of DMB. Time is quite critical to a high tech product, like DMB because another product with same function from different technology can replace the existing product within short period of time. If DMB does not positioning well to customer's mind quickly, another products like Wibro, IPTV, or HSPDA could replace it before it even spreads out. Therefore, positioning strategy is critical for success of DMB product. To make correct positioning strategy, one needs to understand how consumer interprets DMB and how consumer's interpretation can be changed via communication strategy. In this study, we try to investigate how consumer perceives a new product, like DMB and how AD strategy change consumer's perception. More specifically, the paper segment consumers into sub-groups based on their DMB perceptions and compare their characteristics in order to understand how they perceive DMB. And, expose them different printed ADs that have messages guiding consumer think DMB in specific ways, either cellular phone or personal TV. Research Question 1: Segment consumers according to perceptions about DMB and compare characteristics of segmentations. Research Question 2: Compare perceptions about DMB after AD that induces categorization of DMB in direction for each segment. If one understand and predict a direction in which consumer perceive a new product, firm can select target customers easily. We segment consumers according to their perception and analyze characteristics in order to find some variables that can influence perceptions, like prior experience, usage, or habit. And then, marketing people can use this variables to identify target customers and predict their perceptions. If one knows how customer's perception is changed via AD message, communication strategy could be constructed properly. Specially, information from segmented customers helps to develop efficient AD strategy for segment who has prior perception. Research framework consists of two measurements and one treatment, O1 X O2. First observation is for collecting information about consumer's perception and their characteristics. Based on first observation, the paper segment consumers into two groups, one group perceives DMB similar to Cellular phone and the other group perceives DMB similar to TV. And compare characteristics of two segments in order to find reason why they perceive DMB differently. Next, we expose two kinds of AD to subjects. One AD describes DMB as Cellular phone and the other Ad describes DMB as personal TV. When two ADs are exposed to subjects, consumers don't know their prior perception of DMB, in other words, which subject belongs 'similar-to-Cellular phone' segment or 'similar-to-TV' segment? However, we analyze the AD's effect differently for each segment. In research design, final observation is for investigating AD effect. Perception before AD is compared with perception after AD. Comparisons are made for each segment and for each AD. For the segment who perceives DMB similar to TV, AD that describes DMB as cellular phone could change the prior perception. And AD that describes DMB as personal TV, could enforce the prior perception. For data collection, subjects are selected from undergraduate students because they have basic knowledge about most digital equipments and have open attitude about a new product and media. Total number of subjects is 240. In order to measure perception about DMB, we use indirect measurement, comparison with other similar digital products. To select similar digital products, we pre-survey students and then finally select PDA, Car-TV, Cellular Phone, MP3 player, TV, and PSP. Quasi experiment is done at several classes under instructor's allowance. After brief introduction, prior knowledge, awareness, and usage about DMB as well as other digital instruments is asked and their similarities and perceived characteristics are measured. And then, two kinds of manipulated color-printed AD are distributed and similarities and perceived characteristics for DMB are re-measured. Finally purchase intension, AD attitude, manipulation check, and demographic variables are asked. Subjects are given small gift for participation. Stimuli are color-printed advertising. Their actual size is A4 and made after several pre-test from AD professionals and students. As results, consumers are segmented into two subgroups based on their perceptions of DMB. Similarity measure between DMB and cellular phone and similarity measure between DMB and TV are used to classify consumers. If subject whose first measure is less than the second measure, she is classified into segment A and segment A is characterized as they perceive DMB like TV. Otherwise, they are classified as segment B, who perceives DMB like cellular phone. Discriminant analysis on these groups with their characteristics of usage and attitude shows that Segment A knows much about DMB and uses a lot of digital instrument. Segment B, who thinks DMB as cellular phone doesn't know well about DMB and not familiar with other digital instruments. So, consumers with higher knowledge perceive DMB similar to TV because launching DMB advertising lead consumer think DMB as TV. Consumers with less interest on digital products don't know well about DMB AD and then think DMB as cellular phone. In order to investigate perceptions of DMB as well as other digital instruments, we apply Proxscal analysis, Multidimensional Scaling technique at SPSS statistical package. At first step, subjects are presented 21 pairs of 7 digital instruments and evaluate similarity judgments on 7 point scale. And for each segment, their similarity judgments are averaged and similarity matrix is made. Secondly, Proxscal analysis of segment A and B are done. At third stage, get similarity judgment between DMB and other digital instruments after AD exposure. Lastly, similarity judgments of group A-1, A-2, B-1, and B-2 are named as 'after DMB' and put them into matrix made at the first stage. Then apply Proxscal analysis on these matrixes and check the positional difference of DMB and after DMB. The results show that map of segment A, who perceives DMB similar as TV, shows that DMB position closer to TV than to Cellular phone as expected. Map of segment B, who perceive DMB similar as cellular phone shows that DMB position closer to Cellular phone than to TV as expected. Stress value and R-square is acceptable. And, change results after stimuli, manipulated Advertising show that AD makes DMB perception bent toward Cellular phone when Cellular phone-like AD is exposed, and that DMB positioning move towards Car-TV which is more personalized one when TV-like AD is exposed. It is true for both segment, A and B, consistently. Furthermore, the paper apply correspondence analysis to the same data and find almost the same results. The paper answers two main research questions. The first one is that perception about a new product is made mainly from prior experience. And the second one is that AD is effective in changing and enforcing perception. In addition to above, we extend perception change to purchase intention. Purchase intention is high when AD enforces original perception. AD that shows DMB like TV makes worst intention. This paper has limitations and issues to be pursed in near future. Methodologically, current methodology can't provide statistical test on the perceptual change, since classical MDS models, like Proxscal and correspondence analysis are not probability models. So, a new probability MDS model for testing hypothesis about configuration needs to be developed. Next, advertising message needs to be developed more rigorously from theoretical and managerial perspective. Also experimental procedure could be improved for more realistic data collection. For example, web-based experiment and real product stimuli and multimedia presentation could be employed. Or, one can display products together in simulated shop. In addition, demand and social desirability threats of internal validity could influence on the results. In order to handle the threats, results of the model-intended advertising and other "pseudo" advertising could be compared. Furthermore, one can try various level of innovativeness in order to check whether it make any different results (cf. Moon 2006). In addition, if one can create hypothetical product that is really innovative and new for research, it helps to make a vacant impression status and then to study how to form impression in more rigorous way.

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Committee Learning Classifier based on Attribute Value Frequency (속성 값 빈도 기반의 전문가 다수결 분류기)

  • Lee, Chang-Hwan;Jung, In-Chul;Kwon, Young-S.
    • Journal of KIISE:Databases
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.177-184
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    • 2010
  • In these day, many data including sensor, delivery, credit and stock data are generated continuously in massive quantity. It is difficult to learn from these data because they are large in volume and changing fast in their concepts. To handle these problems, learning methods based in sliding window methods over time have been used. But these approaches have a problem of rebuilding models every time new data arrive, which requires a lot of time and cost. Therefore we need very simple incremental learning methods. Bayesian method is an example of these methods but it has a disadvantage which it requries the prior knowledge(probabiltiy) of data. In this study, we propose a learning method based on attribute values. In the proposed method, even though we don't know the prior knowledge(probability) of data, we can apply our new method to data. The main concept of this method is that each attribute value is regarded as an expert learner, summing up the expert learners lead to better results. Experimental results show our learning method learns from data very fast and performs well when compared to current learning methods(decision tree and bayesian).

Learning through Partnerships: Acquirer Firm's Experiences, Deal Partner's Characteristics and the Failure of Cross Border M&A (파트너십을 통합 학습: 인수기업의 경험, 거래 참여 파트너 기업의 특성 그리고 국경 간 M&A 실패)

  • Han, Byoung-Sop;Park, Eun-Kyoung
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.61-96
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    • 2016
  • This study investigates the effects of M&A experience of Chinese firms and characteristics of deal partners in cross border M&A deal failures. 1,610 firms that participated in 1,558 cross border M&As from 2000 to November 2015 are used as samples. The dependent variable is the M&A transaction failures, which were cases of deal pending or withdrawal of Chinese firms. Major independent variables are the nationality diversity of transaction partner firm, the partner firm belonging to a developed country, domestic M&A experience of the Chinese firms, M&A experience in a particular target country, etc. After conducting a probit model analysis, we find that deal partner firm's nationality diversity increases the failure rate of M&A. While prior domestic M&A experience in China has no influence on deal failure, prior M&A experience of Chinese and focal firms in a particular country have a negative effect on the probability of deal failure. This study has academic implication on figuring out why firms are likely to fail in the process of strategic activities based on the inter-organizational learning through partnerships perspective.

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An Early Spectrum Sensing for Efficient Radio Access in Cloud-Conceptual Base Station Systems (클라우드 기지국 시스템에서 효율적 무선 접속을 위한 이른 스펙트럼 감지 기법)

  • Jo, Gahee;Lee, Jae Won;Na, Jee-Hyeon;Cho, Ho-Shin
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.38A no.1
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    • pp.68-78
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we propose an early spectrum sensing(ESS) as an advance preparation for radio-access trial, which enables multi-mode terminals to access the most appropriate radio-access system in a cloud-conceptual base station system where multiple radio access technologies(RATs) coexist. Prior to a random access to one of RATs, a multi-mode terminal conducts a spectrum sensing over entire frequency bands of whole RATs, then select the RAT with the lowest sensing power, that is likely to have the most available spectrum. Thus, an access failure caused by that the selected RAT has no available radio spectrum could be avoidable in advance. In computer simulation, we consider as various RATs as possible. First, circuit and packet systems are taken into consideration. In addition, the packet systems are classified according to the feasibility of carrier aggregation(CA). In case of terminal, three modes are considered with circuit-only, packet-only, and multi-mode. Subsequently, packet traffic is classified into real-time and non-real-time traffic with three different tolerable delay levels. The simulation includes a call process starting with a call generation and ending up with a resource allocation reflecting individual user's QoS requirements and evaluates the proposed scheme in terms of the successful access probability, system access time, system balancing factor and packet loss probability.

On the Evaluation of Physical Distribution Service in Ports (항만물류서비스의 평가에 관하여)

    • Journal of Korean Port Research
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.17-29
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    • 1996
  • It is required to consider pricing and non-pricing factors and external economy in order to achieve the objects of physical distribution system in a port. Recently, among the three factors, much attention has been paid to non-pricing factor in the system. Although physical distribution service in a port(PDSP)has been frequently mentioned in documents and literature related to port and shipping studies, few study on it has not been systematically and scientifically made due to the following problems; $\circ$ there are not proper criteria to evaluate level and quality of PDSP and as a result it is difficult to set up a unified standard for doing so. $\circ$ algorithms to evaluate problems with complex and ambiguous attributes and multiple levels in PDSP are not available. This thesis aims to establish a paradigm to evaluate PDSP and to abvance existing decision making methods to deal with complex and ambiguous problems in PDSP. To tackle the first purpose, extensive and thorough literature survey was carried out on general physical distribution service, which is a corner stone to handle PDSp. In addition, through interviews and questionnaire to the expert, it have extracted 82 factors of physical distribution service in a port. They have been classified into 6 groups by KJ method and each group defined by the expert's advice as follows; a. Potentiality b. Exactness c. safety d. Speediness e. Convenience f. Linkage Prior to the service evaluation, many kinds of its attributes must be identified on the basis of rational decision owing to complexity and ambiguity inherent in PDSP. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is a method to evaluate them but it is not applicable to PDSP that have property of non-additivity and overlapped attributes. Therefore, probablility measure can not be used to evaluate PDSP but fuzzy measure is required. Hierarchical fuzzy integral method, which is merged AHP with fuzzy measure, is also not effective method to evaluate attributes because it has vary complicated way to calculate fuzzy measure identification coefficient of attributes. A new evaluation algorithm has been introduced to solve problems with multi-attribute and multi-level hierarchy, which is called hierarchy fuzzy process(HFP).Analysis on ambiguous aspects of PDSP under study which is not easy to be defined is prerequisite to evaluate it. HFP is different from algorithm existed in that it clarified the relationship between fuzzy measure and probability measure adopted in AHP and that it directly calculates the family of fuzzy measure from overlapping coefficient and probability measure to treat and evaluate ambiguous and complex aspects of PDSP. A new evaluation algorithm HFP was applied to evaluate level of physical distribution service in the biggest twenty container port in the world. The ranks of the ports are as follows; 1. Rotterdam Port, 2. Hamburg Port, 3. Singapore Port, 4. Seattle Port, 5. Yokohama Port, 6. Long beach Port, 7. Oakland Port, 8. Tokyo Port, 9. Hongkong Port, 10. Kobe Port, 11. Los Angeles Port, 12. New york Port, 13. Antwerp Port, 14. Felixstowe Port, 15. Bremerhaven Port, 16. Le'Havre Port, 17. Kaoshung Port, 18. Killung Port, 19. Bangkok Port, 20. Pusan Port

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