• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.519-547
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• 2017

This paper explores whether it is better to forecast city gas demand in Korea using national level data directly or, alternatively, construct forecasts from regional demand models and then aggregate these regional forecasts. In the regional model, we consider gas demand for Seoul metropolitan and the other local areas. Our forecast evaluation exercise for 2013-2016 shows the regional forecast model generally outperforms the national forecasting model. This result comes from the fact that the dynamic properties of each region's gas demands can be better taken into account in the regional demand model. More specifically, the share of residential gas demand in the Seoul metropolitan area is above 50%, and subsequently this demand is heavily influenced by temperature fluctuations. Conversely, the dominant portion of regional gas demand is due to industrial gas consumption. Moreover, electricity is regarded as a substitute for city gas in the residential sector, and industrial gas competes with certain oil products. Our empirical results show that a regional demand forecast model can be an effective alternative to the demand model based on nation-wide gas consumption and that regional information about gas demand is also useful for analyzing sectoral gas consumption.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.685-692
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• 2018

Busan city implemented 'taxi transfer discount system' since October 2017 in order to create for new demand taxis. However, due to the low transfer discount amount and limited payment method to prepaid cards, it is difficult to attain the aim. In this study, we investigated the usage status of taxi transfer discount system and the intention to use taxi transfer discount system according to the discount amount level. We established a model of intention to estimate demand of taxi transfer discount using ordinal logistic model. The results of analysis are as following. The critical reason for low usage was to limit taxi transfer discount payment methods to prepaid cards other than post-paid cards which is used for most transportation payment. It was found that the discount rate for taxi transfers was affected in order of payment method, the purpose of the travel, major transportation, frequency taxi use, age, transportation costs, and the discount of taxi transfers. Also, the taxi transfer discount could be expected to increase to 1,550 won based on the price elasticity of demand due to changes in taxi transfer discount rate.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.34-46
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• 2020

In order to supply stable natural gas in the future, it is necessary to forecast the demand in advance and secure the quantity of supply. In this paper, we propose a method of estimating the demand function of industrial natural gas, which is the core of the increase of domestic natural gas demand in the future. The cross-sectional data of 304 domestic industries were used to estimate the demand function of the industrial natural gas, and the effect of industry specific characteristics such as capital investment, manufacturing cost. Finally, the least absolute deviation estimation method which is robust to outliers and does not assume the homogeneity of the error term and the normality, And the results were derived. In addition, the economic value of industrial city gas was estimated using the price elasticity of industrial city gas. Therefore, it can be seen that the continuous expansion and supply of city gas to the industrial sector is beneficial at the national level, and the government needs to promote expansion through the industrial city gas support policy.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.56 no.1
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• pp.6-13
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• 2018

Utilizing the heat of cooling water discharge of coal-fired power plant, pipeline investment costs for businesses that supply heat to agricultural facilities near power plants increase in proportion to installation distance. On one hand, the distance from the power plant is a factor that brings difficulties to secure economic efficiency. On the other, if the installation distance is short, there is a problem of securing the heating demands, facility houses, which causes economical efficiency to suffer. In this study, the economic efficiency of 1km length of standard heat pipeline was evaluated. The sensitivity of the heat pipe to the new length variation was analyzed at the level of government subsidy, amount of heating demand and the incremental rate of pipeline with additional government subsidy. As a result of the analysis, it was estimated that NPV 131 million won and IRR 15.73%. The sensitivity analysis showed that NPV was negative when the length of heat pipe facility exceeded 2.6 km. If the government supports 50% of the initial investment, the efficiency is secured within the estimated length of 5.3 km, and if it supports 80%, the length increases within 11.4 km. If the heat demand is reduced to less than 62% at the new length of the standard heat pipe, it is expected economic efficiency is not obtained. If the ratio of government subsidies to initial investment increases, the elasticity of the new bloc will increase, and the fixed investment, which is the cost of capital investment for one unit of heating demand, will decrease. This would result in a reduction in the cost of production per unit, and it would be possible to supply heat at a cheaper price level to the facility farming. Government subsidies will result in the increased economic availability of hot plumbing facilities and additional efficiencies due to increased demand. The greater government subsidies to initial investment, the less farms cost due to the decrease in the price per unit. The results of the study are significant in terms of the economic evaluation of the effectiveness of the government subsidy for the thermal power plant heat utilization project. The implication can be applied to any related pilot to come.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.117-128
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• 2021

In order for the users (shipping firms and shippers) and suppliers (stevedoring firms) in the container terminal industry to win-win, it is necessary to have some appropriate diverse market conditions for the industry. This study analyses the basic conditions and demand and supply characteristics of the industry and investigates the market performance of Busan container ports. First, this article analyses the basic characteristics of demand and supply. As the demand characteristics, there are five ones such as 1) exogeneity of demand, 2) function as export/import transportation and hub for transshipment, 3) increase of users' bargaining power, 4) high substituting elasticity, 5) reduction of volume growth. As the supply characteristics, there are seven ones such as 1) inelasticity of supply, 2) homogeneity of stevedoring services, 3) over-supply, 4) adoption of cutting-edge stevedoring technology, 5) scale economy and impossibility of storage, 6) labor market rigidity, 7) enhancing port's role in SCM. In addition, this study conducts the so-called structure-conduct-performance analysis. For the structure analysis, 1) lacks of scale economy in stevedoring companies, 2) high entry barrier, 3) strengthening of shipping firms' bargaining power, 4) transitory permission scheme for tariff are analyzed. For the conduct analysis, 1) price discrimination between export/import and transshipment, 2) mid-term length of terminal use contract, 3) continuous investment in equipment, 4) low level of cooperation among terminal operating firms are derived. For the performance analysis, 1) inequality in profitability, 2) reduction of export/import cost, 3) delay in adopting cutting-edge technology, 4) idle equipment are analyzed. Following this logical flow, the hypothesis that the market structure influences the market conduct is tested based on the actual dataset. As a future agenda in the conclusion, this article recommends the so-called port industrial policy.