• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.43-58
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• 2019

Since 2009, electricity consumption has developed a unique seasonal pattern in South Korea. Winter loads have sharply increased, and they eventually exceeded summer peaks. This trend reversal distinguishes these load patterns from those in the USA and the EU, where annual peaks are observed during the summer months. Using Levene's test, we show statistical evidence of a rise in temperature but a decrease in variance over time regardless of the season. Despite the overall increase in the temperature, regardless of the season there should be another cause of the increased demand for electricity in winter. With the present study using data from 1991 to 2012, we provide empirical evidence that relatively low electricity prices regulated by the government have contributed significantly to the rapid upward change in electricity consumption, specifically during the winter months in the commercial sector in Korea.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.105-133
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• 1999

주가(株價)의 예측(豫測)이 가능하다는 최근 실증결과들로 말미암아 증권시장의 효율성(效率性)에 강한 의문이 제기되고 있다. 주가(株價)의 반전(反轉)(price reversal)이 주가의 예측을 가능하게 한다는 것이다. 혹자는 증권시장이 정보에 과잉반응(過剩反應)을 나타내고 그 후 이를 수정함으로서 주가의 반전이 나타난다고 주장한다. 또 혹자는 호가(呼價)스프레드(spreads)의 존재로 인하여 주가의 반전이 있을 수 있다고 한다. 실제로, 때로는 매수호가에 때로는 매도호가에 거래가 이루어지고 있기 때문이다. 본 연구는 KOSPI 200 구성주식의 일별(日別)수익률 자료를 이용한 실증분석에서 다음과 같은 중요한 사항들을 발견하였다. 첫째, 한국증권시장에 주가반전(株價反轉)이 있다는 것을 확인하였으며, 이러한 단기 주가반전의 주된 원천은 시장(市場)의 과잉반응(過剩反應)이 아니라 호가(呼價)스프레드라는 것을 발견하였다. 일중(日中)에도 물론 주가가 반전하고 있음을 확인하였다. 둘째, 호가스프레드에 의한 변동성으로 말미암아 거래가격을 기준으로 한 일별수익률의 변동성(變動性)이 상당히 과대(過大) 추정(推定)될 수 있음을 발견하였다. 일별수익률 분산의 약 15%는 호가스프레드로 설명(說明)할 수 있었다. 마지막으로, 본 연구결과는 다음과 같은 점을 시사(示峻)하고 있다. 우리 나라에서 호가스프레드는 딜러마켓에서와 같은 '마진'의 의미가 전혀 없다. 따라서 호가스프레드의 크기를 결정하는데 있어 중요한 역할을 하는 '호가단위(呼價單位)'를 적절한 수준으로 가능한한 작게 하는 것이 바람직 할 것이다. 이는 매도자와 매수자의 의견접근을 용이하게 함으로서 매매(賣買)의 성립(成立)을 촉진할 뿐만 아니라, 특히 기관투자자의 거래비용(去來費用)을 줄일 수 있으며, 또 호가스프레드로 인한 앞서의 불필요한 변동성(變動性)을 줄이는 효과도 아울러 기할 수 있을 것이다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.377-401
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• 2016

This study analyzes how much cost the power generation and energy sector in South Korea have to bear due to the introduction of emissions trading scheme during 2016 - 2017. To this end, the data on the seventh basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand is applied to the electricity market simulation model called M-Core, and then the model forecasts carbon dioxide emissions to compare with the free emission allowances in the first national emissions permit allocation plan. The main results are as follows. Carbon dioxide emissions are estimated to be less in 2016 but more than the free emission allowances in 2017. When the price of the allowances is changed from \10,000/ton to \20,000/ton, the cost of purchasing the allowances is ranged from \70 billion to \140 billion. Under the assumption that CO2 cost is incorporated into the variable cost, a reversal of merit order between coal and LNG generation takes place when the price of the allowances exceeds \80,000/ton.

• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.33-43
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• 2012

Why solar companies preferred vertical integration of whole value chain? Major solar companies have built internally strong vertical integration of entire PV value chain. We raise a question whether such integration increases the corporate value and whether market situation affects the result. To test these questions, we conducted multi-variant analysis where characteristic factors mainly affect the corporate value measured in terms of Tobin'Q, based on the financial and non-financial data of PV companies listed in US stock market between 2005 and 2010. We hypothesize that since integration increases the overall efficiency but decreases the flexibility to adjust to various market situation, the combined effect of the efficiency gain and the flexibility loss ultimately determines the sign of integration effect on the corporate vale. We infer that the combined effect will be influenced heavily by business cycle, as in boom market (Seller's market) the efficiency gain may be larger than the flexibility loss and vice versa in bust market. We test whether the sign of combined effect changes after the year of 2009 and which factors influence most the sign. Year of 2009 is known as the year when market shifted from Seller's to Buyer's market. We show that 1) integration increases corporate value in general but after 2009 integration significantly decreases the value, 2) the ratios such as Production/Total Cost, Cash turnover period chosen for reversal of the flexibility measure are negatively affect Tobin's Q and especially stronger after 2009. This shows the flexibility improves corporate value and stronger in the recess period (Buyer's market). These results imply that solar company should set up integration strategy considering the tradeoff between efficiency and flexibility and the impact of the business cycle on both factors. Strategy only based on the price competitiveness determined in boom time can bring undesirable outcomes to the company. In addition, Strategic alliances in some value chains as a flexible bondage should be taken in account as complementary choice to the rigid integration.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.201-209
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• 2020

In this study, issues related to changes in base year, which have controversial effects on fees in service contracts, were reviewed. In this regard, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the effects of changes in base year on conversion factor by type. The benefits and disadvantages of each specific type of medical institution were examined. Main conclusions are as follows. First, changing the base year to be closer to the present time had a beneficial effect on the conversion factor of hospitals. Second, changing the base year to be closer to the current point of time had an adverse effect on the conversion factor of pharmacies and clinics and had a significant adverse effect on clinics. Third, assuming that a single conversion factor is collectively applied to all types, a favorable effect occurred in all cases when the base year was changed to be closer to the present time. Base year changes can bring about conflicts of interest between insurer and providers, and within providers. Therefore, changing the base year should be pursued upon mutual agreement on a reasonable basis for resource allocation. In addition, it is necessary to provide incentives for temporary compensation for the types of losses incurred.