• Title/Summary/Keyword: Price Prediction Simulation

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Simulation-Based Stochastic Markup Estimation System $(S^2ME)$ (시뮬레이션을 기반(基盤)으로 하는 영업이윤율(營業利潤率) 추정(推定) 시스템)

  • Yi, Chang-Yong;Kim, Ryul-Hee;Lim, Tae-Kyung;Kim, Wha-Jung;Lee, Dong-Eun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.109-113
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    • 2007
  • This paper introduces a system, Simulation based Stochastic Markup Estimation System (S2ME), for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the S2ME. The existing methods has four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and who is the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) The deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy contributed by these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors' B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors' bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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Estimation on Heating and Cooling Loads for a Multi-Span Greenhouse and Performance Analysis of PV System using Building Energy Simulation (BES를 이용한 연동형 온실의 냉·난방 부하 산정 및 PV 시스템 발전 성능 분석)

  • Lee, Minhyung;Lee, In-Bok;Ha, Tae-Hwan;Kim, Rack-Woo;Yeo, Uk-Hyeon;Lee, Sang-Yeon;Park, Gwanyong;Kim, Jun-Gyu
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.258-267
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    • 2017
  • The price competitiveness of photovoltaic system (PV system) has risen recently due to the growth of industries, however, it is rarely applied to the greenhouse compared to other renewable energy. In order to evaluate the application of PV system in the greenhouse, power generation and optimal installation area of PV panels should be analyzed. For this purpose, the prediction of the heating and cooling loads of the greenhouse is necessary at first. Therefore, periodic and maximum energy loads of a multi-span greenhouse were estimated using Building Energy Simulation(BES) and optimal installation area of PV panels was derived in this study. 5 parameter equivalent circuit model was applied to analyzed power generation of PV system under different installation angle and the optimal installation condition of the PV system was derived. As a result of the energy simulation, the average cooling load and heating load of the greenhouse were 627,516MJ and 1,652,050MJ respectively when the ventilation rate was $60AE{\cdot}hr^{-1}$. The highest electric power production of the PV system was generated when the installation angle was set to $30^{\circ}$. Also, adjustable PV system produced about 6% more electric power than the fixed PV system. Optimal installation area of the PV panels was derived with consideration of the estimated energy loads. As a result, optimal installation area of PV panels for fixed PV system and adjustable PV system were $521m^2$ and $494m^2$ respectively.

Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values of Financial Ratios (재무비율의 극단치에 대한 통계적 분석)

  • Joo, Jihwan
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.247-268
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    • 2021
  • Investors mainly use PER and PBR among financial ratios for valuation and investment decision-making. I conduct an analysis of two basic financial ratios from a statistical perspective. Financial ratios contain key accounting numbers which reflect firm fundamentals and are useful for valuation or risk analysis such as enterprise credit evaluation and default prediction. The distribution of financial data tends to be extremely heavy-tailed, and PER and PBR show exceedingly high level of kurtosis and their extreme cases often contain significant information on financial risk. In this respect, Extreme Value Theory is required to fit its right tail more precisely. I introduce not only GPD but exGPD. GPD is conventionally preferred model in Extreme Value Theory and exGPD is log-transformed distribution of GPD. exGPD has recently proposed as an alternative of GPD(Lee and Kim, 2019). First, I conduct a simulation for comparing performances of the two distributions using the goodness of fit measures and the estimation of 90-99% percentiles. I also conduct an empirical analysis of Information Technology firms in Korea. Finally, exGPD shows better performance especially for PBR, suggesting that exGPD could be an alternative for GPD for the analysis of financial ratios.

A Study on the Methodology of Extracting the vulnerable districts of the Aged Welfare Using Artificial Intelligence and Geospatial Information (인공지능과 국토정보를 활용한 노인복지 취약지구 추출방법에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jiman;Cho, Duyeong;Lee, Sangseon;Lee, Minseob;Nam, Hansik;Yang, Hyerim
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.169-186
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    • 2018
  • The social influence of the elderly population will accelerate in a rapidly aging society. The purpose of this study is to establish a methodology for extracting vulnerable districts of the welfare of the aged through machine learning(ML), artificial neural network(ANN) and geospatial analysis. In order to establish the direction of analysis, this progressed after an interview with volunteers who over 65-year old people, public officer and the manager of the aged welfare facility. The indicators are the geographic distance capacity, elderly welfare enjoyment, officially assessed land price and mobile communication based on old people activities where 500 m vector areal unit within 15 minutes in Yongin-city, Gyeonggi-do. As a result, the prediction accuracy of 83.2% in the support vector machine(SVM) of ML using the RBF kernel algorithm was obtained in simulation. Furthermore, the correlation result(0.63) was derived from ANN using backpropagation algorithm. A geographically weighted regression(GWR) was also performed to analyze spatial autocorrelation within variables. As a result of this analysis, the coefficient of determination was 70.1%, which showed good explanatory power. Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi coefficients are analyzed to investigate spatially outlier as well as distribution patterns. This study can be used to solve the welfare imbalance of the aged considering the local conditions of the government recently.