• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.403-430
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• 2014

Shale gas formations exhibit strong mechanical and strength anisotropies. Thus, it is necessary to study the effect of anisotropy on the hydraulic fracture initiation pressure. The calculation model for the in-situ stress of the bedding formation is improved according to the effective stress theory. An analytical model of the stresses around wellbore in shale gas reservoirs, in consideration of stratum dip direction, dip angle, and in-situ stress azimuth, has been built. Besides, this work established a calculation model for the stress around the perforation holes. In combination with the tensile failure criterion, a prediction model for the hydraulic fracture initiation pressure in the shale gas reservoirs is put forward. The error between the prediction result and the measured value for the shale gas reservoir in the southern Sichuan Province is only 3.5%. Specifically, effects of factors including elasticity modulus, Poisson's ratio, in-situ stress ratio, tensile strength, perforation angle (the angle between perforation direction and the maximum principal stress) of anisotropic formations on hydraulic fracture initiation pressure have been investigated. The perforation angle has the largest effect on the fracture initiation pressure, followed by the in-situ stress ratio, ratio of tensile strength to pore pressure, and the anisotropy ratio of elasticity moduli as the last. The effect of the anisotropy ratio of the Poisson's ratio on the fracture initiation pressure can be ignored. This study provides a reference for the hydraulic fracturing design in shale gas wells.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.355-362
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• 2012

The aim of this study was to develop a bundle position-wise linear model (BPLM) to predict Pressure Tube (PT) diametral creep employing the previously measured PT diameters and operating conditions. There are twelve bundles in a fuel channel, and for each bundle a linear model was developed by using the dependent variables, such as the fast neutron fluences and the bundle coolant temperatures. The training data set was selected using the subtractive clustering method. The data of 39 channels that consist of 80 percent of a total of 49 measured channels from Units 2, 3, and 4 of the Wolsung nuclear plant in Korea were used to develop the BPLM. The data from the remaining 10 channels were used to test the developed BPLM. The BPLM was optimized by the maximum likelihood estimation method. The developed BPLM to predict PT diametral creep was verified using the operating data gathered from Units 2, 3, and 4. Two error components for the BPLM, which are the epistemic error and the aleatory error, were generated. The diametral creep prediction and two error components will be used for the generation of the regional overpower trip setpoint at the corresponding effective full power days. The root mean square (RMS) errors were also generated and compared to those from the current prediction method. The RMS errors were found to be less than the previous errors.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.8-13
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• 2019

Despite technical advances in healthcare, the rates of hospital-acquired pressure injury (HAPI) are still high although many are potentially preventable. The purpose of this study was to determine whether tree-based prediction modeling is suitable for assessing the risk of HAPI in ICU patients. Retrospective cohort study has been carried out. A decision tree model was constructed with Age, Weight, eTube, diabetes, Braden score, Isolation, and Number of comorbid conditions as decision nodes. We used RStudio for model training and testing. Correct prediction rate of the final prediction model was 92.4 and the Area Under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.699, which means there is about 70% chance that the model is able to distinguish between HAPI and non-HAPI. The results of this study has limited generalizability as the data were from a single academic institution. Our research finding shows that the data-driven tree-based prediction modeling may potentially support ICU sensitive risk assessment for HAPI prevention.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2001.06e
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• pp.789-794
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• 2001

In this study, a program for the off-design performance prediction of multi-stage axial-compressors is developed based on stage-stacking method. To account for the increased losses at off-design conditions, generalized performance curve is applied. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of the choice of generalized performance curve and stator exit angle. For this purpose, we tested various generalized performance curves and stator exit angles. In conclusion, Muir's pressure coefficient curve gives a good prediction results regardless of the efficiency curve for a low-stage compressors. On the other hand, for high-stage compressors, The combination of Muir's pressure coefficient curve and Stone's efficiency curve gives a optimistic results. Stator exit angle has a small effect on overall performance curve.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.596-603
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• 1991

Fatigue life prediction of pressure vessel is studied analytically using cumulative damage models and linear elastic fracture mechanics method. The stresses are analyzed by finite element method. During operation, the maximum stress occurs at the outside of neck region while fatigue analysis indicates that the bottom of nozzle part has the shortest fatigue life. Previously proposed fatigue life prediction equation and cumulative damage model are modified successfully by introducing reference fatigue modulus. It is found that the modified life prediction equation and damage model are useful for lower stress level application.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.637-653
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• 1999

In this study well-known burned rate expressions of Weibe function and double Wiebe function have been adopted for the combustion analysis of large two stroke marine diesel engine. A cycle simulation program was also developed to predict the performance and pressure waves in pipes using validated burned rate function,. Levenberg-Marquardt iteration method was applied to cali-brate the shape coefficients included in double Wiebe function for the performance prediction of two-stroke marine diesel engine. As a result the performance prediction using double Wiebe func-tion is well correlated withexperimental dta with the accuracy of 5% and pressure waves in intake and transport pipe are well predicted. From the results of this study it can be confirmed that the shape coefficients of burned rate function should be modified using the numerical method suggested for the accurated prediction and double Wiebe function is more suitable than Wiebe func-tion for combustion analysis of large two stroke marine engine.

• Atmosphere
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.235-249
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• 2017

This paper describes methodology verifying near-surface predictability of numerical weather prediction models against the surface synoptic weather station network (SYNOP) observation. As verification variables, temperature, wind, humidity-related variables, total cloud cover, and surface pressure are included in this tool. Quality controlled SYNOP observation through the pre-processing for data assimilation is used. To consider the difference of topographic height between observation and model grid points, vertical inter/extrapolation is applied for temperature, humidity, and surface pressure verification. This verification algorithm is applied for verifying medium-range forecasts by a global forecasting model developed by Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems to measure the near-surface predictability of the model and to evaluate the capability of the developed verification tool. It is found that the verification of near-surface prediction against SYNOP observation shows consistency with verification of upper atmosphere against global radiosonde observation, suggesting reliability of those data and demonstrating importance of verification against in-situ measurement as well. Although verifying modeled total cloud cover with observation might have limitation due to the different definition between the model and observation, it is also capable to diagnose the relative bias of model predictability such as a regional reliability and diurnal evolution of the bias.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.54 no.5
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• pp.606-611
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• 2016

Carbon dioxide injection is a widely known method of enhanced oil recovery (EOR). It is critical for the $CO_2$ EOR that the injected $CO_2$ to reach a condition fully miscible with oil. To reach the miscible point, a certain level of pressure is required, which is known as minimum miscibility pressure (MMP). In this study, a MMP prediction method using a process simulator is proposed. To validate the results of the simulation, those are compared to a slim tube experiment and several empirical correlations of previous literatures. Aspen HYSYS is utilized as the process simulator to create a model of $CO_2$/crude oil encounter. The results of the study show that the process simulator model is capable of predicting MMP and comparable to other published methods.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.26 no.11
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• pp.2399-2408
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• 2002

A prediction procedure has been developed to evaluate the microtructures and material properties of heat affected zone (HAZ) in pressure vessel steel weld, based on temperature analysis, thermodynamics calculation and reaction kinetics model. Temperature distributions in HAE are calculated by finite element method. The microstructures in HAZ are predicted by combining the temperature analysis results with the reaction kinetics model for austenite grain growth and austenite decomposition. Substituting the microstructure prediction results into the previous experimental relations, the mechanical material properties such as hardness, yielding strength and tensile strength are calculated. The prediction procedure is modified and verified by the comparison between the present results and the previous study results for the simulated HAZ in reactor pressure vessel (RPV) circurnferential weld. Finally, the microstructures and mechanical material properties are determined by applying the final procedure to real RPV circumferential weld and the local weak zone in HAZ is evaluated based on the application results.

• Journal of KSNVE
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• v.6 no.5
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• pp.661-669
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• 1996

Proposed is an aero-acoustic performance prediction method of axial fan. The fan aerodynamic performance is predicted by combining pitch-averaged quasi 3-D flow analysis with pressure loss models for blade boundary layer and wake, secondary flow, endwall boundary layer and tip leakage flows. Fan noise is assumed to be radiated as dipole distribution type, and its generation is assumed to be mainly due to the vortex street shed from blade trailing edge. The fluctuating pressure and lift on the blade surface are analyzed by incorporating the wake vortex stree shed from blade trailing edge. The fluctuating pressure and lift on the blade surface are analyzed by incorporating the wake vortex street model with thin airfoil theory. The aero-acoustic performance prediction results by the present method are in good agreement with the measured results of several axial fans. With the present prediction method, parametric studies are carried out to investigate the effects of blade chord length and spacing on the efficiency and the noise level of fan. In the case of lightly loaded fan, both efficiency improvement and noise reduction can be achieved by decreasing chord length or by increasing blade specing. However, when fan is designed at highly loaded condition, the noise reduction by increasing blade spacing penalizes the attaninable efficiency of fan.