• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive Analytics Model

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A Study on the Development of Construction Dispute Predictive Analytics Model - Based on Decision Tree - (PA기법을 활용한 건설분쟁 예측모델 개발에 관한 연구 - 의사결정나무를 중심으로 -)

  • Jang, Se Rim;Kim, Han Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.76-86
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    • 2021
  • Construction projects have high potentials of claims and disputes due to inherent risks where a variety of stakeholders are involved. Since disputes could cause losses in terms of cost and time, it is a critical issue for contractors to forecast and pro-actively manage disputes in advance in order to secure project efficiency and higher profits. The objective of the study is to develop a decision tree-based predictive analytics model for forecasting dispute types and their probabilities according to construction project conditions. It can be a useful tool to forecast potential disputes and thus provide opportunities for proactive management.

Visual Analytics Approach for Performance Improvement of predicting youth physical growth model (청소년 신체 성장 예측 모델의 성능 향상을 위한 시각적 분석 방법)

  • Yeon, Hanbyul;Pi, Mingyu;Seo, Seongbum;Ha, Seoho;Oh, Byungjun;Jang, Yun
    • Journal of the Korea Computer Graphics Society
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2017
  • Previous visual analytics researches has focused on reducing the uncertainty of predicted results using a variety of interactive visual data exploration techniques. The main purpose of the interactive search technique is to reduce the quality difference of the predicted results according to the level of the decision maker by understanding the relationship between the variables and choosing the appropriate model to predict the unknown variables. However, it is difficult to create a predictive model which forecast time series data whose overall trends is unknown such as youth physical growth data. In this paper, we pro pose a novel predictive analysis technique to forecast the physical growth value in small pieces of time series data with un certain trends. This model estimates the distribution of data at a particular point in time. We also propose a visual analytics system that minimizes the possible uncertainties in predictive modeling process.

Predictive modeling algorithms for liver metastasis in colorectal cancer: A systematic review of the current literature

  • Isaac Seow-En;Ye Xin Koh;Yun Zhao;Boon Hwee Ang;Ivan En-Howe Tan;Aik Yong Chok;Emile John Kwong Wei Tan;Marianne Kit Har Au
    • Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.14-24
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to assess the quality and performance of predictive models for colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRCLM). A systematic review was performed to identify relevant studies from various databases. Studies that described or validated predictive models for CRCLM were included. The methodological quality of the predictive models was assessed. Model performance was evaluated by the reported area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Of the 117 articles screened, seven studies comprising 14 predictive models were included. The distribution of included predictive models was as follows: radiomics (n = 3), logistic regression (n = 3), Cox regression (n = 2), nomogram (n = 3), support vector machine (SVM, n = 2), random forest (n = 2), and convolutional neural network (CNN, n = 2). Age, sex, carcinoembryonic antigen, and tumor staging (T and N stage) were the most frequently used clinicopathological predictors for CRCLM. The mean AUCs ranged from 0.697 to 0.870, with 86% of the models demonstrating clear discriminative ability (AUC > 0.70). A hybrid approach combining clinical and radiomic features with SVM provided the best performance, achieving an AUC of 0.870. The overall risk of bias was identified as high in 71% of the included studies. This review highlights the potential of predictive modeling to accurately predict the occurrence of CRCLM. Integrating clinicopathological and radiomic features with machine learning algorithms demonstrates superior predictive capabilities.

Predictive Analytics Model for Death Accidents in Building Projects by Trade - Based on Decision Tree- (PA기법을 이용한 건축공사 공종별 사망사고 예측모델 개발에 관한 연구 - 의사결정나무를 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Jeong Won;Kim, Han Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2021
  • Compared with other industries, construction industry shows a higher rate of death accidents and recently companies' legal responsibilities are to be increasingly enforced. The trend causes tremendous concerns for construction firms and increases the importance of forecasting and pro-actively managing death accidents in construction fields. The objective of the study is to develop a predictive analytics model for forecasting death accidents in building projects based on a decision tree technique, which enables to forecast the probabilities of death accidents by trade. The use of the model helps to decrease risks of legal punishments and to assist the safe execution of building projects by forecasting and pro-actively managing death accidents.

Research Capability Enhancement System Based on Prescriptive Analytics (지시적 분석 기반 역량 강화 시스템)

  • Gim, Jangwon;Jung, Hanmin;Jeong, Do-Heon;Song, Sa-Kwang;Hwang, Myunggwon
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.46-51
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    • 2015
  • The explosive growth of data and the rapidly changing technical social evolution new analysis paradigm for predicting and reacting the future the past and present ig data. Prescriptive analysis has a fundamental difference because can support specific behaviors and results according to user's goals with defin researchers establish judgments and activities achiev the goals. However research methods not widely implemented and even the terminology, Prescriptive analysis, is still unfamiliar. This paper thus propose an infrastructure in the prescriptive analysis field with key considerations for enhancing capability of researchers through a case study based on InSciTe Advisory developed with scientific big data. InSciTe Advisory system s developed in 2013, and offers a prescriptive analytics report which contains various As-Is analysis results and To-Be analysis results 5W1H methodology. InSciTe Advisory therefore shows possibility strategy aims to reach a target role model group. Through the availability and reliability of the measurement model the evaluation results obtained relative advantage of 118.8% compared to Elsevier SciVal.

A Case Study on the Target Sampling Inspection for Improving Outgoing Quality (타겟 샘플링 검사를 통한 출하품질 향상에 관한 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Junse;Lee, Changki;Kim, Kyungnam;Kim, Changwoo;Song, Hyemi;Ahn, Seoungsu;Oh, Jaewon;Jo, Hyunsang;Han, Sangseop
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.421-431
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: For improving outgoing quality, this study presents a novel sampling framework based on predictive analytics. Methods: The proposed framework is composed of three steps. The first step is the variable selection. The knowledge-based and data-driven approaches are employed to select important variables. The second step is the model learning. In this step, we consider the supervised classification methods, the anomaly detection methods, and the rule-based methods. The applying model is the third step. This step includes the all processes to be enabled on real-time prediction. Each prediction model classifies a product as a target sample or random sample. Thereafter intensive quality inspections are executed on the specified target samples. Results: The inspection data of three Samsung products (mobile, TV, refrigerator) are used to check functional defects in the product by utilizing the proposed method. The results demonstrate that using target sampling is more effective and efficient than random sampling. Conclusion: The results of this paper show that the proposed method can efficiently detect products that have the possibilities of user's defect in the lot. Additionally our study can guide practitioners on how to easily detect defective products using stratified sampling

Care Cost Prediction Model for Orphanage Organizations in Saudi Arabia

  • Alhazmi, Huda N;Alghamdi, Alshymaa;Alajlani, Fatimah;Abuayied, Samah;Aldosari, Fahd M
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2021
  • Care services are a significant asset in human life. Care in its overall nature focuses on human needs and covers several aspects such as health care, homes, personal care, and education. In fact, care deals with many dimensions: physical, psychological, and social interconnections. Very little information is available on estimating the cost of care services that provided to orphans and abandoned children. Prediction of the cost of the care system delivered by governmental or non-governmental organizations to support orphans and abandoned children is increasingly needed. The purpose of this study is to analyze the care cost for orphanage organizations in Saudi Arabia to forecast the cost as well as explore the most influence factor on the cost. By using business analytic process that applied statistical and machine learning techniques, we proposed a model includes simple linear regression, Naive Bayes classifier, and Random Forest algorithms. The finding of our predictive model shows that Naive Bayes has addressed the highest accuracy equals to 87% in predicting the total care cost. Our model offers predictive approach in the perspective of business analytics.

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of COVID-19 Severity and Progression to Critical Illness Using CT Imaging and Clinical Data

  • Subhanik Purkayastha;Yanhe Xiao;Zhicheng Jiao;Rujapa Thepumnoeysuk;Kasey Halsey;Jing Wu;Thi My Linh Tran;Ben Hsieh;Ji Whae Choi;Dongcui Wang;Martin Vallieres;Robin Wang;Scott Collins;Xue Feng;Michael Feldman;Paul J. Zhang;Michael Atalay;Ronnie Sebro;Li Yang;Yong Fan;Wei-hua Liao;Harrison X. Bai
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.1213-1224
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    • 2021
  • Objective: To develop a machine learning (ML) pipeline based on radiomics to predict Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and the future deterioration to critical illness using CT and clinical variables. Materials and Methods: Clinical data were collected from 981 patients from a multi-institutional international cohort with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19. Radiomics features were extracted from chest CT of the patients. The data of the cohort were randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets using a 7:1:2 ratio. A ML pipeline consisting of a model to predict severity and time-to-event model to predict progression to critical illness were trained on radiomics features and clinical variables. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC), concordance index (C-index), and time-dependent ROC-AUC were calculated to determine model performance, which was compared with consensus CT severity scores obtained by visual interpretation by radiologists. Results: Among 981 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 274 patients developed critical illness. Radiomics features and clinical variables resulted in the best performance for the prediction of disease severity with a highest test ROC-AUC of 0.76 compared with 0.70 (0.76 vs. 0.70, p = 0.023) for visual CT severity score and clinical variables. The progression prediction model achieved a test C-index of 0.868 when it was based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables compared with 0.767 when based on CT radiomics features alone (p < 0.001), 0.847 when based on clinical variables alone (p = 0.110), and 0.860 when based on the combination of visual CT severity scores and clinical variables (p = 0.549). Furthermore, the model based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables achieved time-dependent ROC-AUCs of 0.897, 0.933, and 0.927 for the prediction of progression risks at 3, 5 and 7 days, respectively. Conclusion: CT radiomics features combined with clinical variables were predictive of COVID-19 severity and progression to critical illness with fairly high accuracy.

Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using Qualitative Information Based on Big Data Analytics (빅데이터 기반의 정성 정보를 활용한 부도 예측 모형 구축)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.33-56
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    • 2016
  • Many researchers have focused on developing bankruptcy prediction models using modeling techniques, such as statistical methods including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis or artificial intelligence techniques containing artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, and support vector machines (SVM), to secure enhanced performance. Most of the bankruptcy prediction models in academic studies have used financial ratios as main input variables. The bankruptcy of firms is associated with firm's financial states and the external economic situation. However, the inclusion of qualitative information, such as the economic atmosphere, has not been actively discussed despite the fact that exploiting only financial ratios has some drawbacks. Accounting information, such as financial ratios, is based on past data, and it is usually determined one year before bankruptcy. Thus, a time lag exists between the point of closing financial statements and the point of credit evaluation. In addition, financial ratios do not contain environmental factors, such as external economic situations. Therefore, using only financial ratios may be insufficient in constructing a bankruptcy prediction model, because they essentially reflect past corporate internal accounting information while neglecting recent information. Thus, qualitative information must be added to the conventional bankruptcy prediction model to supplement accounting information. Due to the lack of an analytic mechanism for obtaining and processing qualitative information from various information sources, previous studies have only used qualitative information. However, recently, big data analytics, such as text mining techniques, have been drawing much attention in academia and industry, with an increasing amount of unstructured text data available on the web. A few previous studies have sought to adopt big data analytics in business prediction modeling. Nevertheless, the use of qualitative information on the web for business prediction modeling is still deemed to be in the primary stage, restricted to limited applications, such as stock prediction and movie revenue prediction applications. Thus, it is necessary to apply big data analytics techniques, such as text mining, to various business prediction problems, including credit risk evaluation. Analytic methods are required for processing qualitative information represented in unstructured text form due to the complexity of managing and processing unstructured text data. This study proposes a bankruptcy prediction model for Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms using both quantitative information, such as financial ratios, and qualitative information acquired from economic news articles. The performance of the proposed method depends on how well information types are transformed from qualitative into quantitative information that is suitable for incorporating into the bankruptcy prediction model. We employ big data analytics techniques, especially text mining, as a mechanism for processing qualitative information. The sentiment index is provided at the industry level by extracting from a large amount of text data to quantify the external economic atmosphere represented in the media. The proposed method involves keyword-based sentiment analysis using a domain-specific sentiment lexicon to extract sentiment from economic news articles. The generated sentiment lexicon is designed to represent sentiment for the construction business by considering the relationship between the occurring term and the actual situation with respect to the economic condition of the industry rather than the inherent semantics of the term. The experimental results proved that incorporating qualitative information based on big data analytics into the traditional bankruptcy prediction model based on accounting information is effective for enhancing the predictive performance. The sentiment variable extracted from economic news articles had an impact on corporate bankruptcy. In particular, a negative sentiment variable improved the accuracy of corporate bankruptcy prediction because the corporate bankruptcy of construction firms is sensitive to poor economic conditions. The bankruptcy prediction model using qualitative information based on big data analytics contributes to the field, in that it reflects not only relatively recent information but also environmental factors, such as external economic conditions.

Prediction Model for Gas-Energy Consumption using Ontology-based Breakdown Structure of Multi-Family Housing Complex (온톨로지 기반 공동주택 분류체계를 활용한 가스에너지 사용량 예측 모델)

  • Hong, Tae-Hoon;Park, Sung-Ki;Koo, Choong-Wan;Kim, Hyun-Joong;Kim, Chun-Hag
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.110-119
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    • 2011
  • Global warming caused by excessive greenhouse gas emission is causing climate change all over the world. In Korea, greenhouse gas emission from residential buildings accounts for about 10% of gross domestic emission. Also, the number of deteriorated multi-family housing complexes is increasing. Therefore, the goal of this research is to establish the bases to manage energy consumption continuously and methodically during MR&R period of multi-family housings. The research process and methodologies are as follows. First, research team collected the data on project characteristics and energy consumption of multi-family housing complexes in Seoul. Second, an ontology-based breakdown structure was established with some primary characteristics affecting the energy consumption, which were selected by statistical analysis. Finally, a predictive model of energy consumption was developed based on the ontology-based breakdown structure, with application of CBR, ANN, MRA and GA. In this research, PASW (Predictive Analytics SoftWare) Statistics 18, Microsoft EXCEL, Protege 4.1 were utilized for data analysis and prediction. In future research, the model will be more continuous and methodical by developing the web-base system. And it has facility manager of government or local government, or multi-family housing complex make a decision with definite references regarding moderate energy consumption.