• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive Accuracy

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Intelligent prediction of engineered cementitious composites with limestone calcined clay cement (LC3-ECC) compressive strength based on novel machine learning techniques

  • Enming Li;Ning Zhang;Bin Xi;Vivian WY Tam;Jiajia Wang;Jian Zhou
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.577-594
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    • 2023
  • Engineered cementitious composites with calcined clay limestone cement (LC3-ECC) as a kind of green, low-carbon and high toughness concrete, has recently received significant investigation. However, the complicated relationship between potential influential factors and LC3-ECC compressive strength makes the prediction of LC3-ECC compressive strength difficult. Regarding this, the machine learning-based prediction models for the compressive strength of LC3-ECC concrete is firstly proposed and developed. Models combine three novel meta-heuristic algorithms (golden jackal optimization algorithm, butterfly optimization algorithm and whale optimization algorithm) with support vector regression (SVR) to improve the accuracy of prediction. A new dataset about LC3-ECC compressive strength was integrated based on 156 data from previous studies and used to develop the SVR-based models. Thirteen potential factors affecting the compressive strength of LC3-ECC were comprehensively considered in the model. The results show all hybrid SVR prediction models can reach the Coefficient of determination (R2) above 0.95 for the testing set and 0.97 for the training set. Radar and Taylor plots also show better overall prediction performance of the hybrid SVR models than several traditional machine learning techniques, which confirms the superiority of the three proposed methods. The successful development of this predictive model can provide scientific guidance for LC3-ECC materials and further apply to such low-carbon, sustainable cement-based materials.

Comparing the effects of letter-based and syllable-based speaking rates on the pronunciation assessment of Korean speakers of English (철자 기반과 음절 기반 속도가 한국인 영어 학습자의 발음 평가에 미치는 영향 비교)

  • Hyunsong Chung
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • This study investigated the relative effectiveness of letter-based versus syllable-based measures of speech rate and articulation rate in predicting the articulation score, prosody fluency, and rating sum using "English speech data of Koreans for education" from AI Hub. We extracted and analyzed 900 utterances from the training data, including three balanced age groups (13, 19, and 26 years old). The study built three models that best predicted the pronunciation assessment scores using linear mixed-effects regression and compared the predicted scores with the actual scores from the validation data (n=180). The correlation coefficients between them were also calculated. The findings revealed that syllable-based measures of speech and articulation rates were more effective than letter-based measures in all three pronunciation assessment categories. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and actual scores ranged from .65 to .68, indicating the models' good predictive power. However, it remains inconclusive whether speech rate or articulation rate is more effective.

Time Series Analysis for Predicting Deformation of Earth Retaining Walls (시계열 분석을 이용한 흙막이 벽체 변형 예측)

  • Seo, Seunghwan;Chung, Moonkyung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.65-79
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    • 2024
  • This study employs traditional statistical auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and deep learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) models to predict the deformation of earth retaining walls using inclinometer data from excavation sites. It compares the predictive capabilities of both models. The ARIMA model excels in analyzing linear patterns as time progresses, while the LSTM model is adept at handling complex nonlinear patterns and long-term dependencies in the data. This research includes preprocessing of inclinometer measurement data, performance evaluation across various data lengths and input conditions, and demonstrates that the LSTM model provides statistically significant improvements in prediction accuracy over the ARIMA model. The findings suggest that LSTM models can effectively assess the stability of retaining walls at excavation sites. Additionally, this study is expected to contribute to the development of safety monitoring systems at excavation sites and the advancement of time series prediction models.

Real-time private consumption prediction using big data (빅데이터를 이용한 실시간 민간소비 예측)

  • Seung Jun Shin;Beomseok Seo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.13-38
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    • 2024
  • As economic uncertainties have increased recently due to COVID-19, there is a growing need to quickly grasp private consumption trends that directly reflect the economic situation of private economic entities. This study proposes a method of estimating private consumption in real-time by comprehensively utilizing big data as well as existing macroeconomic indicators. In particular, it is intended to improve the accuracy of private consumption estimation by comparing and analyzing various machine learning methods that are capable of fitting ultra-high-dimensional big data. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been demonstrated that when the number of covariates including big data is large, variables can be selected in advance and used for model fit to improve private consumption prediction performance. In addition, as the inclusion of big data greatly improves the predictive performance of private consumption after COVID-19, the benefit of big data that reflects new information in a timely manner has been shown to increase when economic uncertainty is high.

Computing machinery techniques for performance prediction of TBM using rock geomechanical data in sedimentary and volcanic formations

  • Hanan Samadi;Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh;Shtwai Alsubai;Abdullah Alqahtani;Abed Alanazi;Ahmed Babeker Elhag
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.223-241
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    • 2024
  • Evaluating the performance of Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs) stands as a pivotal juncture in the domain of hard rock mechanized tunneling, essential for achieving both a dependable construction timeline and utilization rate. In this investigation, three advanced artificial neural networks namely, gated recurrent unit (GRU), back propagation neural network (BPNN), and simple recurrent neural network (SRNN) were crafted to prognosticate TBM-rate of penetration (ROP). Drawing from a dataset comprising 1125 data points amassed during the construction of the Alborze Service Tunnel, the study commenced. Initially, five geomechanical parameters were scrutinized for their impact on TBM-ROP efficiency. Subsequent statistical analyses narrowed down the effective parameters to three, including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), peak slope index (PSI), and Brazilian tensile strength (BTS). Among the methodologies employed, GRU emerged as the most robust model, demonstrating exceptional predictive prowess for TBM-ROP with staggering accuracy metrics on the testing subset (R2 = 0.87, NRMSE = 6.76E-04, MAD = 2.85E-05). The proposed models present viable solutions for analogous ground and TBM tunneling scenarios, particularly beneficial in routes predominantly composed of volcanic and sedimentary rock formations. Leveraging forecasted parameters holds the promise of enhancing both machine efficiency and construction safety within TBM tunneling endeavors.

Analysis of Activation Energy of Thermal Aging Embrittlement in Cast Austenite Stainless Steels (주조 오스테나이트 스테인리스강의 열취화 활성화에너지 분석)

  • Gyeong-Geun Lee;Suk-Min Hong;Ji-Su Kim;Dong-Hyun Ahn;Jong-Min Kim
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Pressure Vessels and Piping
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 2024
  • Cast austenitic stainless steels (CASS) and austenitic stainless steel weldments with a ferrite-austenite duplex structure are widely used in nuclear power plants, incorporating ferrite phase to enhance strength, stress relief, and corrosion resistance. Thermal aging at 290-325℃ can induce embrittlement, primarily due to spinodal decomposition and G-phase precipitation in the ferrite phase. This study evaluates the effects of thermal aging by collecting and analyzing various mechanical properties, such as Charpy impact energy, ferrite microhardness, and tensile strength, from various literature sources. Different model expressions, including hyperbolic tangent and phase transformation equations, are applied to calculate activation energy (Q) of room-temperature impact energies, and the results are compared. Additionally, predictive models for Q based on material composition are evaluated, and the potential of machine learning techniques for improving prediction accuracy is explored. The study also examines the use of ferrite microhardness and tensile strength in calculating Q and assessing thermal embrittlement. The findings provide insights for developing advanced prediction models for the thermal embrittlement behavior of CASS and the weldments of austenitic steels, contributing to the safety and reliability of nuclear power plant components.

A gene expression programming-based model to predict water inflow into tunnels

  • Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh;Hawkar Hashim Ibrahim;Laith R. Flaih;Abed Alanazi;Abdullah Alqahtani;Shtwai Alsubai;Nabil Ben Kahla;Adil Hussein Mohammed
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2024
  • Water ingress poses a common and intricate geological hazard with profound implications for tunnel construction's speed and safety. The project's success hinges significantly on the precision of estimating water inflow during excavation, a critical factor in early-stage decision-making during conception and design. This article introduces an optimized model employing the gene expression programming (GEP) approach to forecast tunnel water inflow. The GEP model was refined by developing an equation that best aligns with predictive outcomes. The equation's outputs were compared with measured data and assessed against practical scenarios to validate its potential applicability in calculating tunnel water input. The optimized GEP model excelled in forecasting tunnel water inflow, outperforming alternative machine learning algorithms like SVR, GPR, DT, and KNN. This positions the GEP model as a leading choice for accurate and superior predictions. A state-of-the-art machine learning-based graphical user interface (GUI) was innovatively crafted for predicting and visualizing tunnel water inflow. This cutting-edge tool leverages ML algorithms, marking a substantial advancement in tunneling prediction technologies, providing accuracy and accessibility in water inflow projections.

IPMN-LEARN: A linear support vector machine learning model for predicting low-grade intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

  • Yasmin Genevieve Hernandez-Barco;Dania Daye;Carlos F. Fernandez-del Castillo;Regina F. Parker;Brenna W. Casey;Andrew L. Warshaw;Cristina R. Ferrone;Keith D. Lillemoe;Motaz Qadan
    • Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.195-200
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    • 2023
  • Backgrounds/Aims: We aimed to build a machine learning tool to help predict low-grade intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) in order to avoid unnecessary surgical resection. IPMNs are precursors to pancreatic cancer. Surgical resection remains the only recognized treatment for IPMNs yet carries some risks of morbidity and potential mortality. Existing clinical guidelines are imperfect in distinguishing low-risk cysts from high-risk cysts that warrant resection. Methods: We built a linear support vector machine (SVM) learning model using a prospectively maintained surgical database of patients with resected IPMNs. Input variables included 18 demographic, clinical, and imaging characteristics. The outcome variable was the presence of low-grade or high-grade IPMN based on post-operative pathology results. Data were divided into a training/validation set and a testing set at a ratio of 4:1. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was used to assess classification performance. Results: A total of 575 patients with resected IPMNs were identified. Of them, 53.4% had low-grade disease on final pathology. After classifier training and testing, a linear SVM-based model (IPMN-LEARN) was applied on the validation set. It achieved an accuracy of 77.4%, with a positive predictive value of 83%, a specificity of 72%, and a sensitivity of 83% in predicting low-grade disease in patients with IPMN. The model predicted low-grade lesions with an area under the curve of 0.82. Conclusions: A linear SVM learning model can identify low-grade IPMNs with good sensitivity and specificity. It may be used as a complement to existing guidelines to identify patients who could avoid unnecessary surgical resection.

Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Voids in the Mineral Aggregation in Asphalt Mixtures (아스팔트 혼합물의 골재 간극률 예측을 위한 기계학습 프레임워크)

  • Hyemin Park;Ilho Na;Hyunhwan Kim;Bongjun Ji
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2024
  • The Voids in the Mineral Aggregate (VMA) within asphalt mixtures play a crucial role in defining the mixture's structural integrity, durability, and resistance to environmental factors. Accurate prediction and optimization of VMA are essential for enhancing the performance and longevity of asphalt pavements, particularly in varying climatic and environmental conditions. This study introduces a novel machine learning framework leveraging ensemble machine learning model for predicting VMA in asphalt mixtures. By analyzing a comprehensive set of variables, including aggregate size distribution, binder content, and compaction levels, our framework offers a more precise prediction of VMA than traditional single-model approaches. The use of advanced machine learning techniques not only surpasses the accuracy of conventional empirical methods but also significantly reduces the reliance on extensive laboratory testing. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of a data-driven approach in the field of asphalt mixture design, showcasing a path toward more efficient and sustainable pavement engineering practices. This research contributes to the advancement of predictive modeling in construction materials, offering valuable insights for the design and optimization of asphalt mixtures with optimal void characteristics.

A Study on the Big Data Analysis and Predictive Models for Quality Issues in Defense C5ISR (국방 C5ISR 분야 품질문제의 빅데이터 분석 및 예측 모델에 대한 연구)

  • Hyoung Jo Huh;Sujin Ko;Seung Hyun Baek
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.551-571
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to propose useful suggestions by analyzing the causal effect relationship between the failure rate of quality and the process variables in the C5ISR domain of the defense industry. Methods: The collected data through the in house Systems were analyzed using Big data analysis. Data analysis between quality data and A/S history data was conducted using the CRISP-DM(Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining) analysis process. Results: The results of this study are as follows: After evaluating the performance of candidate models for the influence of inspection data and A/S history data, logistic regression was selected as the final model because it performed relatively well compared to the decision tree with an accuracy of 82%/67% and an AUC of 0.66/0.57. Based on this model, we estimated the coefficients using 'R', a data analysis tool, and found that a specific variable(continuous maximum discharge current time) had a statistically significant effect on the A/S quality failure rate and it was analysed that 82% of the failure rate could be predicted. Conclusion: As the first case of applying big data analysis to quality issues in the defense industry, this study confirms that it is possible to improve the market failure rates of defense products by focusing on the measured values of the main causes of failures derived through the big data analysis process, and identifies improvements, such as the number of data samples and data collection limitations, to be addressed in subsequent studies for a more reliable analysis model.