• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive

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A Model for Health Promoting Behaviors in Late-middle Aged Woman (중년후기 여성의 건강증진행위 모형구축)

  • Park, Chai-Soon
    • Women's Health Nursing
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.298-331
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    • 1996
  • Recent improvements in living standard and development in medical care led to an increased interest in life expectancy and personal health, and also led to a more demand for higher quality of life. Thus, the problem of women's health draw a fresh interest nowadays. Since late-middle aged women experience various physical and socio-psychological changes and tend to have chronic illnesses, these women have to take initiatives for their health control by realizing their own responsibility. The basic elements for a healthy life of these women are understanding of their physical and psychological changes and acceptance of these changes. Health promoting behaviors of an individual or a group are actions toward increasing the level of well-being and self-actualization, and are affected by various variables. In Pender's health promoting model, variables are categorized into cognitive factors(individual perceptions), modifying factors, and variables affecting the likelihood for actions, and the model assumes the health promoting behaviors are affected by cognitive factors which are again affected by demographic factors. Since Pender's model was proposed based on a tool broad conceptual frame, many studies done afterwards have included only a limited number of variables of Pender's model. Furthermore, Pender's model did not precisely explain the possibilities of direct and indirect paths effects. The objectives of this study are to evaluate Pender's model and thus propose a model that explains health promoting behaviors among late-middle aged women in order to facilitate nursing intervention for this group of population. The hypothetical model was developed based on the Pender's health promoting model and the findings from past studies on women's health. Data were collected by self-reported questionnaires from 417 women living in Seoul, between July and November 1994. Questionnaires were developed based on instruments of Walker and others' health promotion lifestyle profile, Wallston and others' multidimensional health locus of control, Maoz's menopausal symptom check list and Speake and others' health self-rating scale. IN addition, items measuring self-efficacy were made by the present author based on past studies. In a pretest, the questionnaire items were reliable with Cronbach's alpha ranging from .786 to .934. The models for health promoting behaviors were tested by using structural equation modelling technique with LISREL 7.20. The results were summarized as follows : 1. The overall fit of the hypothetical model to the data was good (chi-square=4.42, df=5, p=.490, GFI=.995, AGFI=.962, RMSR=.024). 2. Paths of the model were modified by considering both its theoretical implication and statistical significance of the parameter estimates. Compared to the hypothetical model, the revised model has become parsimonious and had a better fit to the data (chi-square =4.55, df=6, p=.602, GFI=.995, AGFI=.967, RMSR=.024). 3. The results of statistical testing were as follows : 1) Family function internal health locus of control, self-efficacy, and education level exerted significant effects on health promoting behaviors(${\gamma}_{43}$=.272, T=3.714; ${\beta}_[41}$=.211, T=2.797; ${\beta}_{42}$=.199, T=2.717; ${\gamma}_{41}$=.136, T=1.986). The effect of economic status, physical menopausal symptoms, and perceived health status on health promoting behavior were insignificant(${\gamma}_{42}$=.095, T=1.456; ${\gamma}_{44}$=.101, T=1.143; ${\gamma}_{43}$=.082, T=.967). 2) Family function had a significance direct effect on internal health locus of control (${\gamma}_{13}$=.307, T=3.784). The direct effect of education level on internal health locus of control was insignificant(${\gamma}_{11}$=-.006, T=-.081). 3) The directs effects of family functions & internal health locus of control on self-efficacy were significant(${\gamma}_{23}$=.208, T=2.607; ${\beta}_{21}$=.191, T=2.2693). But education level and economic status did not exert a significant effect on self-efficacy(${\gamma}_{21}$=.137, T=1.814; ${\beta}_{22}$=.137, T=1.814; ${\gamma}_{22}$=.112, T=1.499). 4) Education level had a direct and positive effect on perceived health status, but physical menopausal symptoms had a negative effect on perceived health status and these effects were all significant(${\gamma}_{31}$=.171, T=2.496; ${\gamma}_{34}$=.524, T=-7.120). Internal health locus and self-efficacy had an insignificant direct effect on perceived health status(${\beta}_{31}$=.028, T=.363; ${\beta}_{32}$=.041, T=.557). 5) All predictive variables of health promoting behaviors explained 51.8% of the total variance in the model. The above findings show that health promoting behaviors are explained by personal, environmental and perceptual factors : family function, internal health locus of control, self-efficacy, and education level had stronger effects on health promoting behaviors than predictors in the model. A significant effect of family function on health promoting behaviors reflects an important role of the Korean late-middle aged women in family relationships. Therefore, health professionals first need to have a proper evaluation of family function in order to reflect the family function style into nursing interventions and development of strategies. These interventions and strategies will enhance internal health locus of control and self-efficacy for promoting health behaviors. Possible strategies include management of health promoting programs, use of a health information booklets, and individual health counseling, which will enhance internal health locus of control and self-efficacy of the late-middle aged women by making them aware of health responsibilities and value for oneself. In this study, an insignificant effect of physical menopausal symptoms and perceived health status on health promoting behaviors implies that they are not motive factors for health promoting behaviors. Further analytic researches are required to clarify the influence of physical menopausal symptoms and perceived health status on health promoting behaviors with-middle aged women.

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The Effect of Brand Extension of Private Label on Consumer Attitude - a focus on the moderating effect of the perceived fit difference between parent brands and an extended brand - (PL의 브랜드확장이 소비자태도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : 모브랜드 적합도 인식 차이의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jong-Keun;Kim, Hyang-Mi;Lee, Jong-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2011
  • Introduction: Sales of private labels(PU have been growing m recent years. Globally, PLs have already achieved 20% share, although between 25 and 50% share in most of the European markets(AC. Nielson, 2005). These products are aimed to have comparable quality and prices as national brand(NB) products and have been continuously eroding manufacturer's national brand market share. Stores have also started introducing premium PLs that are of higher-quality and more reasonably priced compared to NBs. Worldwide, many retailers already have a multiple-tier private label architecture. Consumers as a consequence are now able to have a more diverse brand choice in store than ever before. Since premium PLs are priced higher than regular PLs and even, in some cases, above NBs, stores can expect to generate higher profits. Brand extensions and private label have been extensively studied in the marketing field. However, less attention has been paid to the private label extension. Therefore, this research focuses on private label extension using the Multi-Attribute Attitude Model(Fishbein and Ajzen, 1975). Especially there are few studies that consider the hierarchical effect of the PL's two parent brands: store brand and the original PL. We assume that the attitude toward each of the two parent brands affects the attitude towards the extended PL. The influence from each parent brand toward extended PL will vary according to the perceived fit between each parent brand and the extended PL. This research focuses on how these two parent brands act as reference points to one another in the consumers' choice consideration. Specifically we seek to understand how store image and attitude towards original PL affect consumer perceptions of extended premium PL. How consumers perceive extended premium PLs could provide strategic suggestions for retailer managers with specific suggestions on whether it is more effective: to position extended premium PL similarly or dissimilarly to original PL especially on the quality dimension and congruency with store image. There is an extensive body of research on branding and brand extensions (e.g. Aaker and Keller, 1990) and more recently on PLs(e.g. Kumar and Steenkamp, 2007). However there are no studies to date that look at the upgrading and influence of original PLs and attitude towards store on the premium PL extension. This research wishes to make a contribution to this gap using the perceived fit difference between parent brands and extended premium PL as the context. In order to meet the above objectives, we investigate which factors heighten consumers' positive attitude toward premium PL extension. Research Model and Hypotheses: When considering the attitude towards the premium PL extension, we expect four factors to have an influence: attitude towards store; attitude towards original PL; perceived congruity between the store image and the premium PL; perceived similarity between the original PL and the premium PL. We expect that all these factors have an influence on consumer attitude towards premium PL extension. Figure 1 gives the research model and hypotheses. Method: Data were collected by an intercept survey conducted on consumers at discount stores. 403 survey responses were attained (total 59.8% female, across all age ranges). Respondents were asked to respond to a series of Questions measured on 7 point likert-type scales. The survey consisted of Questions that measured: the trust towards store and the original PL; the satisfaction towards store and the original PL; the attitudes towards store, the original PL, and the extended premium PL; the perceived similarity of the original PL and the extended premium PL; the perceived congruity between the store image and the extended premium PL. Product images with specific explanations of the features of premium PL, regular PL and NB we reused as the stimuli for the Question response. We developed scales to measure the research constructs. Cronbach's alphaw as measured each construct with the reliability for all constructs exceeding the .70 standard(Nunnally, 1978). Results: To test the hypotheses, path analysis was conducted using LISREL 8.30. The path analysis for verification of the model produced satisfactory results. The validity index shows acceptable results(${\chi}^2=427.00$(P=0.00), GFI= .90, AGFI= .87, NFI= .91, RMSEA= .062, RMR= .047). With the increasing retailer use of premium PLBs, the intention of this research was to examine how consumers use original PL and store image as reference points as to the attitude towards premium PL extension. Results(see table 1 & 2) show that the attitude of each parent brand (attitudes toward store and original pL) influences the attitude towards extended PL and their perceived fit moderates these influences. Attitude toward the extended PL was influenced by the relative level of perceived fit. Discussion of results and future direction: These results suggest that the future strategy for the PL extension needs to consider that positive parent brand attitude is more strongly associated with the attitude toward PL extensions. Specifically, to improve attitude towards PL extension, building and maintaining positive attitude towards original PL is necessary. Positioning premium PL congruently to store image is also important for positive attitude. In order to improve this research, the following alternatives should also be considered. To improve the research model's predictive power, more diverse products should be included in study. Other attributes of product should also be included such as design, brand name since we only considered trust and satisfaction as factors to build consumer attitudes.

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A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

Customer Behavior Prediction of Binary Classification Model Using Unstructured Information and Convolution Neural Network: The Case of Online Storefront (비정형 정보와 CNN 기법을 활용한 이진 분류 모델의 고객 행태 예측: 전자상거래 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Seungsoo;Kim, Jongwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.221-241
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    • 2018
  • Deep learning is getting attention recently. The deep learning technique which had been applied in competitions of the International Conference on Image Recognition Technology(ILSVR) and AlphaGo is Convolution Neural Network(CNN). CNN is characterized in that the input image is divided into small sections to recognize the partial features and combine them to recognize as a whole. Deep learning technologies are expected to bring a lot of changes in our lives, but until now, its applications have been limited to image recognition and natural language processing. The use of deep learning techniques for business problems is still an early research stage. If their performance is proved, they can be applied to traditional business problems such as future marketing response prediction, fraud transaction detection, bankruptcy prediction, and so on. So, it is a very meaningful experiment to diagnose the possibility of solving business problems using deep learning technologies based on the case of online shopping companies which have big data, are relatively easy to identify customer behavior and has high utilization values. Especially, in online shopping companies, the competition environment is rapidly changing and becoming more intense. Therefore, analysis of customer behavior for maximizing profit is becoming more and more important for online shopping companies. In this study, we propose 'CNN model of Heterogeneous Information Integration' using CNN as a way to improve the predictive power of customer behavior in online shopping enterprises. In order to propose a model that optimizes the performance, which is a model that learns from the convolution neural network of the multi-layer perceptron structure by combining structured and unstructured information, this model uses 'heterogeneous information integration', 'unstructured information vector conversion', 'multi-layer perceptron design', and evaluate the performance of each architecture, and confirm the proposed model based on the results. In addition, the target variables for predicting customer behavior are defined as six binary classification problems: re-purchaser, churn, frequent shopper, frequent refund shopper, high amount shopper, high discount shopper. In order to verify the usefulness of the proposed model, we conducted experiments using actual data of domestic specific online shopping company. This experiment uses actual transactions, customers, and VOC data of specific online shopping company in Korea. Data extraction criteria are defined for 47,947 customers who registered at least one VOC in January 2011 (1 month). The customer profiles of these customers, as well as a total of 19 months of trading data from September 2010 to March 2012, and VOCs posted for a month are used. The experiment of this study is divided into two stages. In the first step, we evaluate three architectures that affect the performance of the proposed model and select optimal parameters. We evaluate the performance with the proposed model. Experimental results show that the proposed model, which combines both structured and unstructured information, is superior compared to NBC(Naïve Bayes classification), SVM(Support vector machine), and ANN(Artificial neural network). Therefore, it is significant that the use of unstructured information contributes to predict customer behavior, and that CNN can be applied to solve business problems as well as image recognition and natural language processing problems. It can be confirmed through experiments that CNN is more effective in understanding and interpreting the meaning of context in text VOC data. And it is significant that the empirical research based on the actual data of the e-commerce company can extract very meaningful information from the VOC data written in the text format directly by the customer in the prediction of the customer behavior. Finally, through various experiments, it is possible to say that the proposed model provides useful information for the future research related to the parameter selection and its performance.

The Usefulness of Dyspnea Rating in Evaluation for Pulmonary Impairment/Disability in Patients with Chronic Pulmonary Disease (만성폐질환자의 폐기능손상 및 장애 평가에 있어서 호흡곤란정도의 유용성)

  • Park, Jae-Min;Lee, Jun-Gu;Kim, Young-Sam;Chang, Yoon-Soo;Ahn, Kang-Hyun;Cho, Hyun-Myung;Kim, Se-Kyu;Chang, Joon;Kim, Sung-Kyu;Lee, Won-Young
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.204-214
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    • 1999
  • Background: Resting pulmonary function tests(PFTs) are routinely used in the evaluation of pulmonary impairment/disability. But the significance of the cardiopulmonary exercise test(CPX) in the evaluation of pulmonary impairment is controvertible. Many experts believe that dyspnea, though a necessary part of the assessment, is not a reliable predictor of impairment. Nevertheless, oxygen requirements of an organism at rest are different from at activity or exercising, and a clear relationship between resting PFTs and exercise tolerance has not been established in patients with chronic pulmonary disease. As well, the relationship between resting PFTs and dyspnea is complex. To investigate the relationship of dyspnea, resting PFTs, and CPX, we evaluated the patients of stabilized chronic pulmonary disease with clinical dyspnea rating(baseline dyspnea index, BDI), resting PFTs, and CPX. Method: The 50 patients were divided into two groups: non-severe and severe group on basis of results of resting PFTs(by criteria of ATS), CPX(by criteria of ATS or Ortega), and dyspnea rating(by focal score of BDI). Groups were compared with respect to pulmonary function, indices of CPX, and dyspnea rating. Results: 1. According to the criteria of pulmonary impairment with resting PFTs, $VO_2$max, and focal score of BDI were significantly low in the severe group(p<0.01). According to the criteria of $VO_2$max(ml/kg/min) and $VO_2$max(%), the parameters of resting PFTs, except $FEV_1$ were not significantly different between non-severe and severe(p>0.05). According to focal score($FEV_1$(%), FVC(%), MW(%), $FEV_1/FVC$, and $VO_2$max were significantly lower in the severe group(p<0.01). However, in the more severe dyspneic group(focal score<5), only $VO_2$max(ml/kg/min) and $VO_2$max(%) were low(p<0.01). $FEV_1$(%) was correlated with $VO_2$max(%)(r=0.52;p<0.01), but not predictive of exercise performance. The focal score had the correlation with max WR(%) (r=0.55;p<0.01). Sensitivity and specificity analysis were utilized to compare the different criteria used to evaluate the severity of pulmonary impairment, revealed that the classification would be different according to the criteria used. And focal score for dyspnea showed similar sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion : According to these result, resting PFTs were not superior to rating of dyspnea in prediction of exercise performance in patients with chronic pulmonary diseases and less correlative with focal score for dyspnea than $VO_2$max and max WR. Therefore, if not contraindicated, CPX would be considered to evaluate the severity of pulmonary impairment in patients with chronic pulmonary diseases, including with severe resting PFTs. Current criteria used to evaluate the severity of impairment were insufficient in considering the degree of dyspnea, so new criteria, including the severity of dyspnea, may be necessary.

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Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

The Study on the Independent Predictive Factor of Restenosis after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention used Drug-Eluting Stent : Case on MDCT Calcium-Scoring Implementation Patient (약물용출 스텐트를 이용한 관상동맥중재술 후 재협착의 독립적 예측인자에 관한 연구 : MDCT calcium-scoring 시행 환자 대상으로)

  • Kim, In-Soo;Han, Jae-Bok;Jang, Seong-Joo;Jang, Young-Ill
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2010
  • We sought to confirm an independent factor about in-stent restenosis (ISR) in the patients who underwent drug-eluting stent (DES) and know a possibility as a predictor of measured coronary artery calcium score by MDCT. A total of 178 patients (159 men, $61.7{\pm}10.0$ years of age) with 190 coronary artery lesions were included in this study out of 1,131 patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with DES implantation for significant stenosis on MDCT at Chonnam National University Hospital between May 2006 and May 2009. All lesions were divided into two groups with the presence of ISR : group I (re ISR, N = 57) and group II (no ISR, N = 133). Compared to group II, group I was more likely to be older ($65.8{\pm}9.0$ vs. $60.2{\pm}9.9$ years, p = 0.0001), diabetic (21.8% vs. 52.6%, p = 0.0001), have old myocardial infarction (8.8% vs. 2.3%, p = 0.040), left main stem disease (5.3% vs. 0.8%, p = 0.047), and smaller stent size ($3.1{\pm}0.3\;mm$ vs. $3.3{\pm}0.4\;mm$, p = 0.004). Group II was more likely to be smokers (19.3% vs. 42.1%, p = 0.003), have dyslipidemia (8.8% vs. 23.3%, p = 0.019). Left ventricular ejection fraction, lesion complexity, and stent length were not different between the two groups. Total CAC score was $389.3{\pm}458.3$ in group I and $371.2{\pm}500.8$ in group II (p = 0.185). No statistical difference was observed between the groups in CAC score in the culprit vessel, left main stem, left anterior descending artery, left circumflex artery, and right coronary artery. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, left main stem disease (OR = 168.0, 95% CI = 7.83-3,604.3, p = 0.001), male sex (OR = 36.5, 95% CI = 5.89-2,226.9, p = 0.0001), and the presence of diabetes (OR = 2.62, 95% CI = 1.071-6.450, p = 0.035) were independent predictors of ISR after DES implantation. In patients who underwent DES implantation for significant coronary stenosis on MDCT, ISR was associated with left main stem disease, male sex, and the presence of diabetes. However, CAC score by MDCT was not a predictor of ISR in this study population.

Effect of Bronchial Artery Embolization(BAE) in Management of Massive Hemoptysis (대량 객혈환자에서 기관지 동맥색전술의 효과)

  • Yeo, Dong-Seung;Lee, Suk-Young;Hyun, Dae-Seong;Lee, Sang-Haak;Kim, Seok-Chan;Choi, Young-Mee;Suh, Ji-Won;Ahn, Joong-Hyun;Song, So-Hyang;Kim, Chi-Hong;Moon, Hwa-Sik;Song, Jeong-Sup;Park, Sung-Hak;Kim, Ki-Tae
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 1999
  • Background : Massive and untreated hemoptysis is associated with a mortality of greater than 50 percent. Since the bleeding is from a bronchial arterial source in the vast majority of patients, embolization of the bronchial arteries(BAE) has become an accepted treatment in the management of massive hemoptysis because it achieves immediate control of bleeding in 75 to 90 percent of the patients. Methods: Between 1990 and 1996, we treated 146 patients with hemoptysis by bronchial artery embolization. Catheters(4, 5, or 7F) and gelfoam, ivalon, and/or microcoil were used for embolization. Results: Pulmonary tuberculosis and related disorders were the most common underlying disease of hemoptysis(72.6%). Immediate success rate to control bleeding within 24hours was 95%, and recurrence rate was 24.7%. The recurrence rate occured within 6 months after embolization was 63.9%. Initial angiographic findings such as bilaterality, systemic-pulmonary artery shunt, neovascularity, aneurysm were not statistically correlated with rebleeding tendency(P>0.05). Among Initial radiographic findings, only pleural lesions were significantly correlated with rebleeding tendency(P<0.05). At additional bronchial artery angiograpy done due to rebleeding, recanalization of previous embolized arteries were 63.9%, and the presence of new feeding arteries were 16.7%, and 19.4% of patients with rebleeding showed both The complications such as fever, chest pain, headache, nausea and vomiting, arrhythmia, paralylytic ileus, transient sensory loss (lower extremities), hypotension, urination difficulty were noticed at 40 patients(27.4%). Conclusion: We conclude that bronchial artery embolization is relatively safe method achieving immediate control of massive hemoptysis. At initial angiographic findings, we could not find any predictive factors for subsequent rebleeding. It may warrant further study whether patients with pleural disease have definetely increased rebleeding tendency.

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Breast Conservation Therapy Versus Mastectomy - Preliminary Results of Pattern of Failure and Survival Rate in Early Breast Cancer (조기유방암에서 유방보존치료와 유방전절제술의 치료결과 및 실패양상 비교)

  • Kim Yeon-Sil;Yoon Sei-Chul;Chung Su-Mi;Ryu Mi-Ryeong;Jung Sang-Sul;Choi Ihl-Bohng
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.115-123
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    • 2004
  • Purpose : This retrospective study was conducted to compare early preliminary results of breast conservation therapy (BCT) with mastectomy In early breast cancer. Materials and Methods : We evaluated 171 women with AJCC stage I and II breast cancer who had been treated at Kangnam St. Mary's Hospital from March 1989 to August 1996. Eighty-eight patients underwent mastectomy and 85 patients did conservative surgery with breast irradiation. in the BCT group, all patients received whole breast irradiation to a total dose of 45$\~$50 Gy/5$\~$6 wks, followed by a boost to the original tumor site at least 60 Gy. Chemotherapy was administered to 29 (34.1$\%$) patients in BCT and 40 (45.5$\%$) in mastectomy, with various sequencing of surgery and/or radiation. We compared survival rate, patterns of failure in each treatment group and the prognostic factors that had a significant effect on treatment failure. The median follow-up time was 63 months (19$\~$111 months). Log rank test was used to estimate the prognostic factors for treatment failure. Results : Overall survival, disease free survival, locoregional recurrence and distant metastasis rates were not significantly different between the two treatment groups. During the follow-up period, 11 patients (12.5$\%$)in the mastectomy group and 10 patients (11.8%$\%$ in the BCT group were failed. Six local recurrences occurred after mastectomy and 5 after BCT Five patients fatted at distant site in mastectomy and 4 in BCT. Of the local recurrence cases, five of 6 mastectomy patients and 3 of S BCT patients were alive with no evidence of disease after salvage surgery and/or chemoirradiation. Our results indicated that the major influence on survival was distant metastasis. Unfortunately, control of distant metastasisis was not frequently achieved. Even with salvage systemic therapy or radiotherapy, most of distant metastasis patients died or had uncontrolled disease in both treatment groups: only one of 4 BCT patients and none of mastectomy patients were alive without disease. There was no apparent difference in the incidence rate of contralateral breast cancer and non-breast 2$^{nd}$ primary tumor between the two treatment groups. Univariate Log-rank test identified the N stage and the involved axillary LN number as distinct prognostic factors that were highly predictive of treatment failure in both treatment groups. Additionally, marginal status in BCT and histologic nuclear grade In the mastectomy group were risk factors for treatment fallure (p < 0.05). Concousion : Although further careful follow-up is necessary to confirm the trends evident In this serles, it would appear that patterns of failure and survival rate following conservative surgery and radiotherapy in early breast cancer are similar to those following mastectomy. The great majority of patients with local recurrence had an exellent salvage rate in both treatment groups. Therefore, these preliminary short term results support BCT as an equally effective management for early breast cancer as an alternative to mastectomy.