• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictive

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Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Clostridium perfringens in beef jerky (육포에서 Clostridium perfringens의 정량적 미생물 위해평가)

  • Nam, Gun Woo;Kim, Su Jin;Yoon, Ki Sun
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.621-628
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    • 2018
  • We developed a quantitative microbial risk assessment model for determning the effect of seasoning on Clostridium perfringens behavior in beef jerky under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. C. perfringens was not detected (<0.5 log CFU/g) in beef jerky samples (n=275), regardless of storage conditions or the presence of seasoning. Survival models of C. perfringens on beef jerky were developed as a function of temperature (10, 17, 25, and $35^{\circ}C$). Risk of C. perfringens due to the consumption of beef jerky was estimated with @RISK and FDA-iRISK. The probability of foodborne illness due to C. perfringens through consumption of seasoned, vacuum packed beef jerky was estimated to be $2.77{\times}10^{-16}$ per person per day. Overall, the risk of contamination of beef jerky with C. perfringens is very low.

A Cohort Study of Children and Adolescents Victims with Sexual Abuse in Korea and Their Initial Assessment Results (아동청소년 성폭력 피해자들을 위한 코호트 연구 : 코호트 구축과 초기 평가 결과)

  • Kim, Kyung-Yoon;Lee, Na-Hyun;Cheon, Keun-Ah;Song, Dong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : The goals of the study are how to establish the cohort systems for the children and adolescents victims with sexual abuse in Korea and to identify the risk and protective factors that influence mental health in child sexual abuse (CSA). This is initial assessment data based on the analysis of cohort variables for baseline evaluation of subjects. Methods : We constructed the cohort systems for CSA victims recruited by Seoul Sunflower Children Center, CSA victims protection center. The initial assessment data which consisted of demographic and psychological inventories of CSA victims and their parents/families, psychiatric diagnoses were the results of statistical analysis of 65 subjects under 19 years old for 3 years 7 months. Results : The initial data were followings : female participants, N=56; mean age, 11.6 (SD=4.5); the most sexual assault, molestation 71.8%; victims, family and acquaintance 87.1%; 61.5% of the subjects diagnosed with psychiatric disorder; 29.2% diagnosed with PTSD and 23.1% diagnosed with depression. Mean duration for abuse to report is 1.5 years. Mean score of IES-R-K, TSCYC-avoidant and CBCL-problematic behavior were increased above clinical cut-off. Conclusions : CSA victims tend to have high risks in mental health problem. The cohort study could provide the risk and protective factors of CSA in mental health, and construct the predictive model for mental illness in Korea.

Clinical Characteristics of NSSI and Predictors of Suicide Attempts in Clinically Depressed Korean Adolescents (일 대학병원에 방문한 우울한 청소년에서 비자살성 자해행동의 임상적 특성과 자살 시도 예측요인)

  • Kim, Gyung-Mee
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence and clinical characteristics of nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI), and its association with suicide attempts among clinically depressed adolescents in Korea. Methods : In total, 113 depressed adolescents aged 12-18 years in South Korea were enrolled in this study. We assessed sociodemographic and clinical characteristics including suicidality and non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) using various self-reported scales and semi-structured interview for diagnosis of psychiatric disorders. Demographic and clinical characteristics of the subjects were compared between NSSI and non-NSSI groups. We examined significant predictors of suicide attempts using logistic regression analysis. Results : Among 113 depressed participants, 48 (42.1%) adolescents were classified into the NSSI group. In the NSSI group, there were significantly more females, showed higher depression, higher state-anxiety, and more suicide ideation. The most predictive factors of suicide attempts were history of NSSI, observed suicide/NSSI behaviors of their family or friends, and total state anxiety score. Conclusions : NSSI is more common problem among clinically depressed adolescents and history of NSSI is a significant predictor of present suicide attempts. To include the assessment of NSSI for clinically depressed adolescent may be crucial for intervention programs for high risk adolescents of suicide in Korea.

Adverse Outcome Pathways for Prediction of Chemical Toxicity at Work: Their Applications and Prospects (작업장 화학물질 독성예측을 위한 독성발현경로의 응용과 전망)

  • Rim, Kyung-Taek;Choi, Heung-Koo;Lee, In-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.141-158
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: An adverse outcome pathway is a biological pathway that disturbs homeostasis and causes toxicity. It is a conceptual framework for organizing existing biological knowledge and consists of the molecular initiating event, key event, and adverse output. The AOP concept provides intuitive risk identification that can be helpful in evaluating the carcinogenicity of chemicals and in the prevention of cancer through the assessment of chemical carcinogenicity predictions. Methods: We reviewed various papers and books related to the application of AOPs for the prevention of occupational cancer. We mainly used the internet to search for the necessary research data and information, such as via Google scholar(http://scholar.google.com), ScienceDirect(www.sciencedirect.com), Scopus(www.scopus. com), NDSL(http: //www.ndsl.kr/index.do) and PubMed(http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed). The key terms searched were "adverse outcome pathway," "toxicology," "risk assessment," "human exposure," "worker," "nanoparticle," "applications," and "occupational safety and health," among others. Results: Since it focused on the current state of AOP for the prediction of toxicity from chemical exposure at work and prospects for industrial health in the context of the AOP concept, respiratory and nanomaterial hazard assessments. AOP provides an intuitive understanding of the toxicity of chemicals as a conceptual means, and it works toward accurately predicting chemical toxicity. The AOP technique has emerged as a future-oriented alternative to the existing paradigm of chemical hazard and risk assessment. AOP can be applied to the assessment of chemical carcinogenicity along with efforts to understand the effects of chronic toxic chemicals in workplaces. Based on these predictive tools, it could be possible to bring about a breakthrough in the prevention of occupational and environmental cancer. Conclusions: The AOP tool has emerged as a future-oriented alternative to the existing paradigm of chemical hazard and risk assessment and has been widely used in the field of chemical risk assessment and the evaluation of carcinogenicity at work. It will be a useful tool for prediction, and it is possible that it can help bring about a breakthrough in the prevention of occupational and environmental cancer.

The Effect of Website Characteristics and Online Service Quality of Kidult Online Shopping Mall on The Reliability and Repurchase Intention (키덜트 전문 쇼핑몰의 사이트 특성과 온라인 서비스 품질이 신뢰 및 재구매 의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sang Won;Kim, Hong Keun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.161-178
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of characteristics of the online shopping mall website and the service quality factors required on the online service on the reliability and repurchase intention. Through this, the key customer response service and operation management strategy can be proposed for the growth of kidult online shopping mall which is continuously spreading. Also, implications for development direction can be suggested. For this purpose, the ES-QUAL and E-Rec-S-QUAL factors proposed by Parasuraman et al.(2005) were set as independent variables, as well as professionalism, diversity, playfulness, and personalization, and website reliability as a mediating factor, and repurchase intention as a dependent variable. For the analysis, a structured questionnaires survey was conducted to 200 domestic online shopping mall users. The main results are as follows. First, the professionalism, personalization in the characteristics, and service quality factors had positive effects on website reliability. Second, playfulness, personalization in the characteristics, and service quality factors had positive effects on repurchase intention. Third, website reliability had a positive effect on repurchase intention. Fourth, website reliability was found to mediate the relationship between predictive (independent) variables and dependent variables. The above results show that if a professional online shopping mall is equipped with online service quality and establish personalization through enhancing the professionalism, the online shopping mall can form a website reliability and expect to build continuous relationship with customers. In addition, implications can be suggested for future customer response service and operation management strategies.

Validity of Self-reported Hypertension and Factors Related to Discordance Between Self-reported and Objectively Measured Hypertension: Evidence From a Cohort Study in Iran

  • Najafi, Farid;Pasdar, Yahya;Shakiba, Ebrahim;Hamzeh, Behrooz;Darbandi, Mitra;Moradinazar, Mehdi;Navabi, Jafar;Anvari, Bita;Saidi, Mohammad Reza;Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.131-139
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: Self-reporting can be used to determine the incidence and prevalence of hypertension (HTN). The present study was conducted to determine the validity of self-reported HTN and to identify factors affecting discordance between self-reported and objectively measured HTN in participants in the Ravansar Non-Communicable Diseases (RaNCD) cohort. Methods: The RaNCD cohort included permanent residents of Ravansar, Iran aged 35-65 years. Self-reported data were collected before clinical examinations were conducted by well-trained staff members. The gold standard for HTN was anti-hypertensive medication use and blood pressure measurements. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and overall accuracy of self-reporting were calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to examine the discordance between self-reported HTN and the gold standard. Results: Of the 10 065 participants in the RaNCD, 4755 (47.4%) were male. The prevalence of HTN was 16.8% based on self-reporting and 15.7% based on medical history and HTN measurements. Of the participants with HTN, 297 (18.8%) had no knowledge of their disease, and 313 (19.9%) had not properly controlled their HTN despite receiving treatment. The sensitivity, specificity, and kappa for self-reported HTN were 75.5%, 96.4%, and 73.4%, respectively. False positives became more likely with age, body mass index (BMI), low socioeconomic status, and female sex, whereas false negatives became more likely with age, BMI, high socioeconomic status, smoking, and urban residency. Conclusions: The sensitivity and specificity of self-reported HTN were acceptable, suggesting that this method can be used for public health initiatives in the absence of countrywide HTN control and detection programs.

A Study of Future Residential Land Use Change considering Climate Change using Land Use Equilibrium Model in Jeju (토지이용균형 모델을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 주거용 토지이용변화 - 제주 지역을 대상으로 -)

  • Yoo, Somin;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Yamagata, Yoshiki;Kim, Jiyoung;Kim, Moon-Il;Lim, Chul-Hee
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2015
  • Climate change lead to environmental pollution caused by the radical economic growth and development of industry. The amount of damage from abnormal climate is increasing rapidly for this reason in Korea. In particular, the cities is a lot of carbon emission quantity from the radical growth. Thus the government present "low carbon green growth" for eco-friendly city planning. As one of the important factors effecting climate change, active researches on land use change is performed. In this study, we knew land use change of each scenarios using land use equilibrium model which is kind of predictive model of land use in Japan. First, we selected study area to Jeju lsland. For this study, indicators for input data were selected and spatial data for input data were established using GIS program. Second, we established future scenarios based in 2040s. There are 2 future scenarios: dispersion scenario, compact scenario. Third, we compared with residential area of current and residential area for future scenarios. Results showed that residential area of the difference between current and dispersion scenario were 1,230 ha and residential area of the difference between current and compact scenario were 1,515 ha. Finally, for comparing carbon dioxide absorption volume between dispersion scenarios and compact scenarios, we calculated carbon dioxide absorption volume according to residential area decreased of each future scenarios. Results showed that carbon dioxide absorption volume in dispersion scenario was 477,878 ton and carbon dioxide absorption volume in compact scenario was 588,606 ton. Therefore, the study showed that land use equilibrium model is expected to put to use for future enhancement in creating data for climate change stabilization. And it is also expected to be utilized for city planning research in Korea.

Landslide Susceptibility Prediction using Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence and Artificial Neural Network Models (Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence 및 Artificial Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 공간 취약성 예측 연구)

  • Lee, Saro;Oh, Hyun-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.299-316
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze landslide susceptibility in the Pyeongchang area using Weight of Evidence (WOE) and Evidential Belief Function (EBF) as probability models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a machine learning model in a geographic information system (GIS). This study examined the widespread shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall during Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006, which caused serious property damage and significant loss of life. For the landslide susceptibility mapping, 3,955 landslide occurrences were detected using aerial photographs, and environmental spatial data such as terrain, geology, soil, forest, and land use were collected and constructed in a spatial database. Seventeen factors that could affect landsliding were extracted from the spatial database. All landslides were randomly separated into two datasets, a training set (50%) and validation set (50%), to establish and validate the EBF, WOE, and ANN models. According to the validation results of the area under the curve (AUC) method, the accuracy was 74.73%, 75.03%, and 70.87% for WOE, EBF, and ANN, respectively. The EBF model had the highest accuracy. However, all models had predictive accuracy exceeding 70%, the level that is effective for landslide susceptibility mapping. These models can be applied to predict landslide susceptibility in an area where landslides have not occurred previously based on the relationships between landslide and environmental factors. This susceptibility map can help reduce landslide risk, provide guidance for policy and land use development, and save time and expense for landslide hazard prevention. In the future, more generalized models should be developed by applying landslide susceptibility mapping in various areas.

BRAFV600E Mutation is a Strong Preoperative Indicator for Predicting Malignancy in Thyroid Nodule Patients with Atypia of Undetermined Significance Identified by Fine Needle Aspiration (세침흡인검사 결과 Atypia of Undetermined Significance로 진단된 갑상선 결절에서 악성을 예측할 수 있는 위험인자)

  • Choi, Hye Rang;Choi, Bo-Yoon;Cho, Jae Hoon;Lim, Young Chang
    • Korean Journal of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery
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    • v.61 no.11
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    • pp.600-604
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    • 2018
  • Background and Objectives This study aimed to identify a reliable preoperative predictive factor for the development of thyroid cancer in patients with atypia of undetermined significance (AUS) identified by fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB). Subjects and Method This was a retrospective cohort study. Two hundred and ninety-nine patients diagnosed with AUS by preoperative FNAB who underwent curative thyroid surgery at our institution between September 2005 and February 2014 were analyzed. Clinical, radiological and molecular features were investigated as preoperative predictors for postoperative permanent malignant pathology. Results The final pathologic results revealed 36 benign tumors including nodular hyperplasia, follicular adenoma, adenomatous goiter, nontoxic goiter, and lymphocytic thyroiditis, as well as 263 malignant tumors including 1 follicular carcinoma and 1 invasive follicular carcinoma; the rest were papillary thyroid carcinomas. The malignancy rate was 87.9%. The following were identified as risk factors for malignancy by univariate analysis: $BRAF^{V600E}$ gene mutation, specific ultrasonographic findings including smaller nodule size, low echogenicity of the nodule, and irregular or spiculated margin (p<0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed that only $BRAF^{V600E}$ mutation was a statistically significant risk factor for malignancy (p<0.05). When $BRAF^{V600E}$ mutation was positive, 98.5% of enrolled patients developed malignant tumors. In addition, the diagnostic rate of malignancy in these cases was approximately 16-fold higher than BRAF-negative cases. Conclusion Patients with AUS thyroid nodules should undergo $BRAF^{V600E}$ gene mutation analysis to improve diagnostic accuracy and if the mutation is confirmed, surgery is recommended due to the high risk of malignancy.

Can Housing Prices Be an Alternative to a Census-based Deprivation Index? An Evaluation Based on Multilevel Modeling (주택가격이 센서스에 기반한 박탈지수의 대안이 될 수 있는가?: 다수준 모델에 기반한 평가)

  • Sohn, Chul;Nakaya, Tomoki
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.197-211
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    • 2018
  • We conducted this research to examine how well regional housing prices are suited to use as an alternative to conventional census-based regional deprivation indices in health and medical geography studies. To examine the relative performance of mean regional housing prices compared to conventional census-based regional deprivation indices, we compared several multilevel logistic regression models, where the first level was individuals and the second was health districts in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) in Korea, for the sake of adjusting the regional clustering tendency of unknown factors. In these models, we predicted two dichotomous variables that represented individuals' after-lunch tooth brushing behavior and use of dental floss by individual characteristics and regional indices. Then, we compared the relative predictive performance of the models using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The results from the estimations showed that mean regional housing prices and census-based deprivation indices were correlated with the two types of dental health behavior in a statistical sense. The results also revealed that the model with mean regional housing prices showed smaller AIC and BIC compared with other models with conventional census-based deprivation indices. These results imply that it is possible for housing prices summarized using aerial units to be used as an alternative to conventional census-based deprivation indices when the census variables employed cannot properly reflect the characteristics of the aerial units.