• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction risk

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Explosion Likelihood Investigation of Facility Using CVD Equipment Using SEMI S6 (SEMI S6를 적용한 CVD 설비의 폭발분위기 조성 가능성 분석)

  • Mi Jeong Lee;Dae Won Seo;Seong Hee Lee;Dong Geon Lee;Se Jong Bae;Jong-Bae Baek
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.61 no.1
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    • pp.62-67
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    • 2023
  • Due to the prolonged impact of COVID-19, the demand for Information Technology (IT) products is increasing, and their production facilities are expanded. Consequently, the use of harmful and dangerous chemicals are increased, the risk of fire(s) and explosion(s) is also elevated. In order to mitigate these risks, the government sets standards, such as KS C IEC 60079-10-1, and manages explosion-prone hazardous facilities where flammable substances are manufactured, used, and handled. However, using the standards of KS, it is difficult to predict the actual possibility of an explosion in a facility, because ventilation (an important factor) is not considered when setting up a hazardous work environment. In this study, the SEMI S6, Tracer Gas Test was applied to the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) facility, a major part of the display industry, to evaluate ventilation performance and to confirm the possibility of creating a less explosive environment. Based on the results, it was confirmed that the ventilation performance in the assumed scenarios met the standards stipulated in SEMI S6, along with supporting the possibility of creating a less explosive working condition. Therefore, it is recommended to use the prediction tool using engineering techniques, as well as KS standards, in such hazardous environments to prevent accidents and/or reduce economic burden following accidents.

Comparison of Machine Learning Models to Predict the Occurrence of Ground Subsidence According to the Characteristics of Sewer (하수관로 특성에 따른 지반함몰 발생 예측을 위한 기계학습 모델 비교)

  • Lee, Sungyeol;Kim, Jinyoung;Kang, Jaemo;Baek, Wonjin
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.5-10
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    • 2022
  • Recently, ground subsidence has been continuously occurring in downtown areas, threatening the safety of citizens. Various underground facilities such as water and sewage pipelines and communication pipelines are buried under the road. It is reported that the cause of ground subsidence is the deterioration of various facilities and the reckless development of the underground. In particular, it is known that the biggest cause of ground subsidence is the aging of sewage pipelines. As an existing study related to this, several representative factors of sewage pipelines were selected and a study to predict the risk of ground subsidence through statistical analysis has been conducted. In this study, a data SET was constructed using the characteristics of OO city's sewage pipe characteristics and ground subsidence data, The data set constructed from the characteristics of the sewage pipe of OO city and the location of the ground subsidence was used. The goal of this study was to present a classification model for the occurrence of ground subsidence according to the characteristics of sewage pipes through machine learning. In addition, the importance of each sewage pipe characteristic affecting the ground subsidence was calculated.

A global-scale assessment of agricultural droughts and their relation to global crop prices (전 지구 농업가뭄 발생특성 및 곡물가격과의 상관성 분석)

  • Kim, Daeha;Lee, Hyun-Ju
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.883-893
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    • 2023
  • While South Korea's dependence on imported grains is very high, droughts impacts from exporting countries have been overlooked. Using the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), this study globally analyzed frequency, extent, and long-term trends of agricultural droughts and their relation to natural oscillations and global crop prices. Results showed that global-scale correlations were found between ESI and soil moisture anomalies, and they were particularly strong in crop cultivation areas. The high correlations in crop cultivation areas imply a strong land-atmosphere coupling, which can lead to relatively large yield losses with a minor soil moisture deficits. ESI showed a clear decreasing trend in crop cultivation areas from 1991 to 2022, and this trend may continue due to global warming. The sharp increases in the grain prices in 2012 and 2022 were likely related to increased drought areas in major grain-exporting countries, and they seemed to elevate South Korea's producer price index. This study suggests the need for drought risk management for grain-exporting countries to reduce socioeconomic impacts in South Korea.

Influence of Mixture Non-uniformity on Methane Explosion Characteristics in a Horizontal Duct (수평 배관의 메탄 폭발특성에 있어서 불균일성 혼합기의 영향)

  • Ou-Sup Han;Yi-Rac Choi;HyeongHk Kim;JinHo Lim
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.62 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2024
  • Fuel gases such as methane and propane are used in explosion hazardous area of domestic plants and can form non-uniform mixtures with the influence of process conditions due to leakage. The fire-explosion risk assessment using literature data measured under uniform mixtures, damage prediction can be obtained the different results from actual explosion accidents by gas leaks. An explosion characteristics such as explosion pressure and flame velocity of non-uniform gas mixtures with concentration change similar to that of facility leak were examined. The experiments were conducted in a closed 0.82 m long stainless steel duct with observation recorded by color high speed camera and piezo pressure sensor. Also we proposed the quantification method of non-uniform mixtures from a regression analysis model on the change of concentration difference with time in explosion duct. For the non-uniform condition of this study, the area of flame surface enlarged with increasing the concentration non-uniform in the flame propagation of methane and was similar to the wrinkled flame structure existing in a turbulent flame. The time to peak pressure of methane decreased as the non-uniform increased and the explosion pressure increased with increasing the non-uniform. The ranges of KG (Deflagration index) of methane with the concentration non-uniform were 1.30 to 1.58 [MPa·m/s] and the increase rate of KG was 17.7% in methane with changing from uniform to non-uniform.

Implementation of an Automated Agricultural Frost Observation System (AAFOS) (농업서리 자동관측 시스템(AAFOS)의 구현)

  • Kyu Rang Kim;Eunsu Jo;Myeong Su Ko;Jung Hyuk Kang;Yunjae Hwang;Yong Hee Lee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2024
  • In agriculture, frost can be devastating, which is why observation and forecasting are so important. According to a recent report analyzing frost observation data from the Korea Meteorological Administration, despite global warming due to climate change, the late frost date in spring has not been accelerated, and the frequency of frost has not decreased. Therefore, it is important to automate and continuously operate frost observation in risk areas to prevent agricultural frost damage. In the existing frost observation using leaf wetness sensors, there is a problem that the reference voltage value fluctuates over a long period of time due to contamination of the observation sensor or changes in the humidity of the surrounding environment. In this study, a datalogger program was implemented to automatically solve these problems. The established frost observation system can stably and automatically accumulate time-resolved observation data over a long period of time. This data can be utilized in the future for the development of frost diagnosis models using machine learning methods and the production of frost occurrence prediction information for surrounding areas.

Prediction of Damages and Evacuation Strategies for Gas Leaks from Chlorine Transport Vehicles (염소 운송차량 가스누출시 피해예측 및 대피방안)

  • Yang, Yong-Ho;Kong, Ha-Sung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.407-417
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    • 2024
  • The objective of this study is to predict and reduce potential damage caused by chlorine gas leaks, a hazardous material, when vehicles transporting it overturn due to accidents or other incidents. The goal is to forecast the anticipated damages caused by chlorine toxicity levels (ppm) and to design effective response strategies for mitigating them. To predict potential damages, we conducted quantitative assessments using the ALOHA program to calculate the toxic effects (ppm) and damage distances resulting from chlorine leaks, taking into account potential negligence of drivers during transportation. The extent of damage from toxic gas leaks is influenced by various factors, including the amount of the leaked hazardous material and the meteorological conditions at the time of the leak. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of damage distances was conducted by examining various scenarios that involved variations in the amount of leakage and weather conditions. Under intermediate conditions (leakage quantity: 5 tons, wind speed: 3 m/s, atmospheric stability: D), the estimated distance for exceeding the AEGL-2 level of 2 ppm was calculated to be 9 km. This concentration poses a high risk of respiratory disturbance and potential human casualties, comparable to the toxicity of hydrogen chloride. In particular, leaks in urban areas can lead to significant loss of life. In the event of a leakage incident, we proposed a plan to minimize damage by implementing appropriate response strategies based on the location and amount of the leak when an accident occurs.

Effects of Patient Safety Motivation and Degree of Patient Safety on Patient Safety Management Activities of Geriatric Hospitals Nurses (노인 요양병원 간호사의 환자 안전동기와 환자안전도가 환자안전관리 활동에 미치는 영향)

  • Ju-Yul Lee;Soon-Ok Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.773-785
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    • 2023
  • This study is a descriptive research conducted to identify the factors influencing patient safety management activities of geriatric hospitals nurses and use basic data to prevent patient safety accidents. Subjects were 220 nurses and data were collected by questionnaires from february 1 to 28, 2023. Data were analyzed using t-test, ANOVA, Scheffe's test, Pearson correlation coefficients and Multiple regression analysis using the SPSS 29.0 program. Patient safety motivation was positive correlated with degree of patient safety(r=.41, p<.001), and degree of patient safety was positive correlated with patient safety nursing activity(r=.18, p<.01). Degree of patient safety(𝛽=.21, p<.001) and patient safety guidelines(𝛽=.16, p<.001) were main factors that affect patient safety nursing activity, and its explanatory power was 7.5%(Adj R2=.075, p<.001). For patient safety nursing activity, it is proposed to develop and apply a education program that strengthens practical training for effective coping after safety accidents along with risk prediction training to prevent before safety accidents.

Prediction of Decompensation and Death in Advanced Chronic Liver Disease Using Deep Learning Analysis of Gadoxetic Acid-Enhanced MRI

  • Subin Heo;Seung Soo Lee;So Yeon Kim;Young-Suk Lim;Hyo Jung Park;Jee Seok Yoon;Heung-Il Suk;Yu Sub Sung;Bumwoo Park;Ji Sung Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.1269-1280
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    • 2022
  • Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of quantitative indices obtained from deep learning analysis of gadoxetic acid-enhanced hepatobiliary phase (HBP) MRI and their longitudinal changes in predicting decompensation and death in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Materials and Methods: We included patients who underwent baseline and 1-year follow-up MRI from a prospective cohort that underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance between November 2011 and August 2012 at a tertiary medical center. Baseline liver condition was categorized as non-ACLD, compensated ACLD, and decompensated ACLD. The liver-to-spleen signal intensity ratio (LS-SIR) and liver-to-spleen volume ratio (LS-VR) were automatically measured on the HBP images using a deep learning algorithm, and their percentage changes at the 1-year follow-up (ΔLS-SIR and ΔLS-VR) were calculated. The associations of the MRI indices with hepatic decompensation and a composite endpoint of liver-related death or transplantation were evaluated using a competing risk analysis with multivariable Fine and Gray regression models, including baseline parameters alone and both baseline and follow-up parameters. Results: Our study included 280 patients (153 male; mean age ± standard deviation, 57 ± 7.95 years) with non-ACLD, compensated ACLD, and decompensated ACLD in 32, 186, and 62 patients, respectively. Patients were followed for 11-117 months (median, 104 months). In patients with compensated ACLD, baseline LS-SIR (sub-distribution hazard ratio [sHR], 0.81; p = 0.034) and LS-VR (sHR, 0.71; p = 0.01) were independently associated with hepatic decompensation. The ΔLS-VR (sHR, 0.54; p = 0.002) was predictive of hepatic decompensation after adjusting for baseline variables. ΔLS-VR was an independent predictor of liver-related death or transplantation in patients with compensated ACLD (sHR, 0.46; p = 0.026) and decompensated ACLD (sHR, 0.61; p = 0.023). Conclusion: MRI indices automatically derived from the deep learning analysis of gadoxetic acid-enhanced HBP MRI can be used as prognostic markers in patients with ACLD.

Blood-Blister Aneurysms of the Internal Carotid Artery in Tibetan and Han Populations : A Retrospective Observational Study

  • Bowen Huang;Yanming Ren;Hao Liu;Anqi Xiao;Lunxin Liu;Hong Sun;Yi Liu;Hao Li;Lu Ma;Chang-Wei Zhang;Chao-Hua Wang;Min He;Yuekang Zhang;Chao You;Jin Li
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.67 no.3
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    • pp.345-353
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    • 2024
  • Objective : Blood-blister aneurysms (BBAs) of the internal carotid artery (ICA) are challenging lesions with high morbidity and mortality rates. Although research on BBAs is well documented in different populations, the study of BBAs in the Tibetan population is extremely rare. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics of BBAs and analyze the treatment modalities and long-term outcomes in the Tibetan population in comparison with the Han population. Methods : The characteristics of patients with BBAs of the ICA from January 2009 to January 2021 at our institution were reviewed. The features of aneurysms, treatment modalities, complications, and follow-up outcomes were retrospectively analyzed. Results : A total of 130 patients (41 Tibetan and 89 Han patients) with BBAs of the ICA who underwent treatment were enrolled. Compared with the Han group, the Tibetan group significantly demonstrated a high ratio of BBAs among ICAs (8.6%, 41/477 vs. 1.6%, 89/5563; p<0.05), a high ratio of vasospasm (34.1%, 14/41 vs. 6.7%, 6/89; p=0.001), a high risk of ischemic events (43.9%, 18/41 vs. 22.5%, 20/89; p<0.05), and a low ratio of good outcomes (modified Rankin scale, 0-2) at the 1-year follow-up (51.2%, 21/41 vs. 74.2%, 66/89; p<0.05). The multivariate regression model showed that ischemic events significantly contributed to the prediction of outcomes at 1 year. Further analysis revealed that microsurgery and vasospasm were associated with ischemic events. Conclusion : In comparison with Han patients, the Tibetan population had a high ratio of BBA occurrence, a high incidence of ischemic events, and a high ratio of poor outcomes. The endovascular approach showed more benefits in BBA patients.

International Research Trend on Mountainous Sediment-related Disasters Induced by Earthquakes (지진 유발 산지토사재해 관련 국외 연구동향 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-In;Seo, Jung-Il;Kim, Jin-Hak;Ryu, Dong-Seop;Seo, Jun-Pyo;Kim, Dong-Yeob;Lee, Chang-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.4
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    • pp.431-440
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    • 2017
  • The 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake ($M_L$ 5.8) (occurred on September 12, 2016) and the 2017 Pohang Earthquake ($M_L$ 5.4) (occurred on November 15, 2017) caused unprecedented damages in South Korea. It is necessary to establish basic data related to earthquake-induced mountainous sediment-related disasters over worldwide. In this study, we analyzed previous international studies on the earthquake-induced mountainous sediment-related disasters, then classified research areas according to research themes using text-mining and co-word analysis in VOSviewer program, and finally examined spatio-temporal research trends by research area. The result showed that the related-researches have been rapidly increased since 2005, which seems to be affected by recent large-scale earthquakes occurred in China, Taiwan and Japan. In addition, the research area related to mountainous sediment-related disasters induced by earthquakes was classified into four subjects: (i) mechanisms of disaster occurrence; (ii) rainfall parameters controlling disaster occurrence; (iii) prediction of potential disaster area using aerial and satellite photographs; and (iv) disaster risk mapping through the modeling of disaster occurrence. These research areas are considered to have a strong correlation with each other. On the threshold year (i.e., 2012-2013), when cumulative number of research papers was reached 50% of total research papers published since 1987, proportions per unit year of all research areas should increase. Especially, the proportion of the research areas related to prediction of potential disaster area using aerial and satellite photographs is highly increased compared to other three research areas. These trends are responsible for the rapidly increasing research papers with study sites in China, and the research papers examined in Taiwan, Japan, and the United States have also contributed to increases in all research areas. The results are could be used as basic data to present future research direction related to mountainous sediment-related disasters induced by earthquakes in South Korea.