• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of variables

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Determinants of IPO Failure Risk and Price Response in Kosdaq (코스닥 상장 시 실패위험 결정요인과 주가반응에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sung-Bae;Nam, Sam-Hyun;Yi, Hwa-Deuk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • Recently, failure rates of Kosdaq IPO firms are increasing and their survival rates tend to be very low, and when these firms do fail, often times backed by a number of governmental financial supports, they may inflict severe financial damage to investors, let alone economy as a whole. To ensure investors' confidence in Kosdaq and foster promising and healthy businesses, it is necessary to precisely assess their intrinsic values and survivability. This study investigates what contributed to the failure of IPO firms and analyzed how these elements are factored into corresponding firms' stock returns. Failure risks are assessed at the time of IPO. This paper considers factors reflecting IPO characteristics, a firm's underwriter prestige, auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds. The study further went on to examine how, if at all, these failure risks involved during IPO led to post-IPO stock prices. Sample firms used in this study include 98 Kosdaq firms that have failed and 569 healthy firms that are classified into the same business categories, and Logit models are used in estimate the probability of failure. Empirical results indicate that auditor's quality, IPO offer price, firm's age, and IPO proceeds shown significant relevance to failure risks at the time of IPO. Of other variables, firm's size and ROA, previously deemed significantly related to failure risks, in fact do not show significant relevance to those risks, whereas financial leverage does. This illustrates the efficacy of a model that appropriately reflects the attributes of IPO firms. Also, even though R&D expenditures were believed to be value relevant by previous studies, this study reveals that R&D is not a significant factor related to failure risks. In examing the relation between failure risks and stock prices, this study finds that failure risks are negatively related to 1 or 2 year size-adjusted abnormal returns after IPO. The results of this study may provide useful knowledge for government regulatory officials in contemplating pertinent policy and for credit analysts in their proper evaluation of a firm's credit standing.

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Development of simple tools for algal bloom diagnosis in agricultural lakes (농업용 호소의 조류 발생 진단을 위한 간편 도구의 개발)

  • Nam, Gui-Sook;Lee, Seung-Heon;Jo, Hyun-Jung;Park, Joo-Hyun;Cho, Young-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.433-445
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    • 2019
  • This study was designed to develop simple tools to easily and efficiently predict the occurrence of algal bloom in agricultural lakes. Physicochemical water quality parameters were examined to reflect the phytoplankton productivity in 182 samples collected from 15 agricultural lakes from April to October 2018. Total phytoplankton abundance was significantly correlated with chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) (r=0.666) and Secchi depth (SD) (r= -0.351). The abundances of cyanobacteria and harmful cyanobacteria were also correlated with Chl-a (r=0.664, r=0.353) and SD (r= -0.340, r= -0.338), respectively, but not with total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP). The Chl-a concentration was correlated with SD (r= -0.434), showing a higher similarity than phytoplankton abundance. Therefore, Chl-a and SD were selected as diagnostic factors for algal bloom prediction, instead of analyzing the standing crop of harmful cyanobacteria used in algae alarm systems. Specifically, accurate diagnoses were made using realtime SD measurements. The algal bloom diagnostic tool is an inverse cone-shaped container with an algal bloom diagnosis chart that modified SD and turbidity measurement methods. Lake water was collected to observe the number of rings visible in the container or the number indicated in each ring, depending on the degree of algal bloom,and to determine the final stage of algal blooming by comparison to the colorimetric level on the diagnosis chart. For an accurate diagnosis, we presented 4-step diagnostic criteria based on the concentration of Chl-a and the number of rings and a fan-shaped algal bloom diagnosis chart with Hexa code names. This tool eliminated the variables and errors of previous methods and the results were easily interpreted. This study is expected to facilitate the diagnosis of algal bloom in agricultural lakes and the establishment of an efficient algal bloom management plan.

A Study on Prediction of Asian Dusts Using the WRF-Chem Model in 2010 in the Korean Peninsula (WRF-Chem 모델을 이용한 2010년 한반도의 황사 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Ok Jin;Moon, Yun Seob
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.90-108
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    • 2015
  • The WRF-Chem model was applied to simulate the Asian dust event affecting the Korean Peninsula from 11 to 13 November 2010. GOCART dust emission schemes, RADM2 chemical mechanism, and MADE/SORGAM aerosol scheme were adopted within the WRF-Chem model to predict dust aerosol concentrations. The results in the model simulations were identified by comparing with the weather maps, satellite images, monitoring data of $PM_{10}$ concentration, and LIDAR images. The model results showed a good agreement with the long-range transport from the dust source area such as Northeastern China and Mongolia to the Korean Peninsula. Comparison of the time series of $PM_{10}$ concentration measured at Backnungdo showed that the correlation coefficient was 0.736, and the root mean square error was $192.73{\mu}g/m^3$. The spatial distribution of $PM_{10}$ concentration using the WRF-Chem model was similar to that of the $PM_{2.5}$ which were about a half of $PM_{10}$. Also, they were much alike in those of the UM-ADAM model simulated by the Korean Meteorological Administration. Meanwhile, the spatial distributions of $PM_{10}$ concentrations during the Asian dust events had relevance to those of both the wind speed of u component ($ms^{-1}$) and the PBL height (m). We performed a regressive analysis between $PM_{10}$ concentrations and two meteorological variables (u component and PBL) in the strong dust event in autumn (CASE 1, on 11 to 23 March 2010) and the weak dust event in spring (CASE 2, on 19 to 20 March 2011), respectively.

Development of Deep-Learning-Based Models for Predicting Groundwater Levels in the Middle-Jeju Watershed, Jeju Island (딥러닝 기법을 이용한 제주도 중제주수역 지하수위 예측 모델개발)

  • Park, Jaesung;Jeong, Jiho;Jeong, Jina;Kim, Ki-Hong;Shin, Jaehyeon;Lee, Dongyeop;Jeong, Saebom
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.697-723
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    • 2022
  • Data-driven models to predict groundwater levels 30 days in advance were developed for 12 groundwater monitoring stations in the middle-Jeju watershed, Jeju Island. Stacked long short-term memory (stacked-LSTM), a deep learning technique suitable for time series forecasting, was used for model development. Daily time series data from 2001 to 2022 for precipitation, groundwater usage amount, and groundwater level were considered. Various models were proposed that used different combinations of the input data types and varying lengths of previous time series data for each input variable. A general procedure for deep-learning-based model development is suggested based on consideration of the comparative validation results of the tested models. A model using precipitation, groundwater usage amount, and previous groundwater level data as input variables outperformed any model neglecting one or more of these data categories. Using extended sequences of these past data improved the predictions, possibly owing to the long delay time between precipitation and groundwater recharge, which results from the deep groundwater level in Jeju Island. However, limiting the range of considered groundwater usage data that significantly affected the groundwater level fluctuation (rather than using all the groundwater usage data) improved the performance of the predictive model. The developed models can predict the future groundwater level based on the current amount of precipitation and groundwater use. Therefore, the models provide information on the soundness of the aquifer system, which will help to prepare management plans to maintain appropriate groundwater quantities.

Warm Season Hydro-Meteorological Variability in South Korea Due to SSTA Pattern Changes in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Region (열대 태평양 SSTA 패턴 변화에 따른 우리나라 여름철 수문 변동 분석)

  • Yoon, Sun-kwon;Kim, Jong-Suk;Lee, Tae-Sam;Moon, Young-IL
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-63
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we analyzed the effects of regional hydrologic variability during warm season (June-September) in South Korea due to ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation) pattern changes over the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). We performed composite analysis (CA) and statistical significance test by Student's t-test using observed hydrologic data (such as, precipitation and streamflow) in the 113 sub-watershed areas over the 5-Major River basin, in South Korea. As a result of this study, during the warm-pool (WP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year shows a significant increasing tendency than normal years. Particularly, during the cold-tongue (CT) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ decaying years clearly decreasing tendency compared to the normal years was appeared. In addition, the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ years tended to show a slightly increasing tendency and maintain the average year state. In addition, from the result of scatter plot of the percentage anomaly of hydrologic variables during warm season, it is possible to identify the linear increasing tendency. Also the center of the scatter plot shows during the WP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year (+17.93%, +26.99%), the CT El $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (-8.20%, -15.73%), and the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (+8.89%, +15.85%), respectively. This result shows a methodology of the tele-connection based long-range water resources prediction for reducing climate forecasting uncertainty, when occurs the abnormal SSTA (such as, El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$) phenomenon in the TPO region. Furthermore, it can be a useful data for water managers and end-users to support long-range water-related policy making.

A STUDY ON THE CORRELATIONSHIP OF SUBMENTOVERTEX VIEW AND LATERAL CEPHALOGRAM MEASUREMENTS (이하두정방사선사진과 측모두부방사선사진상에서의 계측치 상호연관성에 관한연구)

  • Cho, Jae-Hyung;Ryu, Young-Kyu
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.414-420
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    • 1996
  • Cephalometric measureements have disadvantage of representing cranio-facial structures in two dimension only and therefore they pose limitations in describing three-dimentional structures of cranio-facial region. More interests have been put on the correlation between the two planes. This study evaluated correlations between facial type score, which allows effects on malocclusion, growth change prediction and establishment of treatment method and prognosis, and measurements from submentovertex view. Cephalometric view and submentovertex view were taken of skeletal Class I adults with optimal profile and correlations between them have been observed. Following results were obtained: 1. To learn about factors that influence average condylar angulation, FACE, INT-CO-ANG, MN-CORPUS, CON-RATIO, GON-RATIO, MN-RATIO were used as variables and underwent multiple regression analysis. As a result, the following equation was obtained : CON-AVE=.l73(FACE)-.322(INT-CO-ANG)+36.34(GON-RATIO) +.420(MN-CORPUS) (($R^2=.85451$) 2. The following equation was obtained concerning facial type score. FACE= .050(CON-ANG)+.023(INT-CO-ANG)-.075(MN-CORPUS)($R^2=.31547$) 3. Among the submentovertex measurements, MN-CORPUS, CON-RATIO, GON-RATIO, MN-RATIO showed close correlations. (P<0.05) 4. Average condylar angualtions were $23.37^{\circ}$ on the right and $20.71^{\circ}$ on left. There was a difference between the two. FACE : facial type soore. CON-ANG: mean value of condylar angulation. CON-AVE: mean value of Rt. Lt condylar angulation. INT-CO-ANG : angle between Rt. Lt condylar axis. MN-CORPUS : angle formed between RT. Lt gonion & pogonion. CON-RATIO: lntercondylar distance/mandibular body length. GON-RATIO : intergonion distanoe/mandibular body length. MN-RATIO: lntermylohyoid distance/mandibular body length. MX-RATIO: intermaxillary tuberosity distance/ANS-PNS distance.

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Review of Policy Direction and Coupled Model Development between Groundwater Recharge Quantity and Climate Change (기후변화 연동 지하수 함양량 산정 모델 개발 및 정책방향 고찰)

  • Lee, Moung-Jin;Lee, Joung-Ho;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Houng, Hyun-Jung
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.157-184
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    • 2010
  • Global climate change is destroying the water circulation balance by changing rates of precipitation, recharge and discharge, and evapotranspiration. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) makes "changes in rainfall pattern due to climate system changes and consequent shortage of available water resource" a high priority as the weakest part among the effects of human environment caused by future climate changes. Groundwater, which occupies a considerable portion of the world's water resources, is related to climate change via surface water such as rivers, lakes, and marshes, and "direct" interactions, being indirectly affected through recharge. Therefore, in order to quantify the effects of climate change on groundwater resources, it is necessary to not only predict the main variables of climate change but to also accurately predict the underground rainfall recharge quantity. In this paper, the authors selected a relevant climate change scenario, In this context, the authors selected A1B from the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) which is distributed at Korea Meteorological Administration. By using data on temperature, rainfall, soil, and land use, the groundwater recharge rate for the research area was estimated by period and embodied as geographic information system (GIS). In order to calculate the groundwater recharge quantity, Visual HELP3 was used as main model for groundwater recharge, and the physical properties of weather, temperature, and soil layers were used as main input data. General changes to water circulation due to climate change have already been predicted. In order to systematically solve problems associated with how the groundwater resource circulation system should be reflected in future policies pertaining to groundwater resources, it may be urgent to recalculate the groundwater recharge quantity and consequent quantity for using via prediction of climate change in Korea in the future and then reflection of the results. The space-time calculation of changes to the groundwater recharge quantity in the study area may serve as a foundation to present additional measures for the improved management of domestic groundwater resources.

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An Analysis on Factors Related to the Job Satisfaction of Dental Hygienists at J Region (J지역 치과위생사의 직무스트레스 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Hyun-Ok;Ju, On-Ju;Kim, Young-Im
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the job stress and job stressors of dental hygienists. The subjects in the study were 220 dental hygienists who worked in north Jeolla province. After a mail survey was conducted from July 24 through September 24, 2006, the responses from 180 dental hygienists(response rate 81.8%) were gathered, and 156 answer sheets were analyzed except 24 incomplete ones that couldn't be analyzable. The findings of the study were as follows: 1. As for the correlation of overall job stress to turnover intention, their entire stress was under the influence of unreasonable treatment (r = 0.382), conflicts as a professional(r = 0.285), tough working environments(r = 0.303), conflicts with colleagues(r = 0.233), and heavy workload (r = 0.262). Those who were more stressed were more willing to change their occupation, and their stress level made a statistically significant difference to that(p < 0.01). 2. A multiple regression analysis was carried out by selecting the job stressors and turnover intention as independent and dependent variables respectively to see how each of the stressors affected job stress. And unreasonable treatment(p < 0.001) was identified as what had the biggest impact on that, followed by conflicts as a professional(p < 0.05), and tough working environments (p < 0.05). The stressors made a 22.2% prediction of turnover intention.

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Health Care Utilization Pattern and Its Related Factors of Low-income Population with Abnormal Results through Health Examination (저소득층 건강검진 유소견자의 의료이용 양상 및 관련요인)

  • Kwon, Bog-Soon;Kam, Sin;Han, Chang-Hyun
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.87-105
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the health care utilization pattern and its related factors of low-income population with abnormal results through health examination. Methods: Analysed data were collected through a questionnaire survey, which was given to 263 persons who 30 years or over with abnormal results through health examination at Health Center. This survey was conducted in March, 2003. This study employed Andersen's prediction model as most well known medical demand mode and data were analysed through 2-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: The proportion of medical utilization for thorough examination or treatment among study subjects was 51.0%. In multiple logistic regression analysis as dependent variable with medical utilization, the variables affecting the medical utilization were 'feeling about abnormal result(anxiety versus no anxiety: odds ratio 2.25, 95% confidence intervals 1.07-4.75)', 'type of health security(medicaid type I versus health insurance: odds ratio 2.82, 95% confidence intervals 1.04-7.66; medicaid type II versus health insurance: odds ratio 3.22, 95% confidence intervals 1.37-7.53)', 'experience of health examination during past 2 years(odds ratio 2.39, 95% confidence intervals 1.09-5.21)' and 'family member's response for abnormal result(recommendation for medical utilization versus no response: odds ratio 4.90, 95% confidence intervals 1.75-13.75; family member recommended to utilize medical facilities with him/her versus no response: odds ratio 19.47, 95% confidence intervals 5.01-75.73)'. The time of medical utilization was 8-15 days after they received the result(29.9%), 16-30 days after they receive the result(27.6%), 2-7 days after they received the result(20.9%) in order. The most important reason why they didn't take a medical utilization was that it seemed insignificant to them(32.4%). Conclusions: In order to promote medical utilization of low-income population, health education for abnormal result and its management would be necessary to family member as well as person with abnormal result. And follow-up management program for person with abnormal result through health examination such as home-visit health care would be necessary.

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Habitat characteristics and prediction of potential distribution according to climate change for Macromia daimoji Okumura, 1949 (Odonata: Macromiidae) (노란잔산잠자리(Macromia daimojiOkumura, 1949)의 서식지 특성 및 기후변화에 따른 잠재적 분포 예측)

  • Soon Jik Kwon;Hyeok Yeong Kwon;In Chul Hwang;Chang Su Lee;Tae Geun Kim;Jae Heung Park;Yung Chul Jun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2024
  • Macromia daimoji Okumura, 1949 was designated as an endangered species and also categorized as Class II Endangered wildlife on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List in Korea. The spatial distribution of this species ranged within a region delimited by northern latitude from Sacheon-si(35.1°) to Yeoncheon-gun(38.0°) and eastern longitude from Yeoncheon-gun(126.8°) to Yangsan-si(128.9°). They generally prefer microhabitats such as slowly flowing littoral zones of streams, alluvial stream islands and temporarily formed puddles in the sand-based lowland streams. The objectives of this study were to analyze the similarity of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in M. daimoji habitats, to predict the current potential distribution patterns as well as the changes of distribution ranges under global climate change circumstances. Data was collected both from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and by field surveys from April 2009 to September 2022. We adopted MaxEnt model to predict the current and future potential distribution for M. daimoji using downloaded 19 variables from the WorldClim database. The differences of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in the mainstream of Nakdonggang were smaller than those in its tributaries and the other streams, based on the surrounding environments and stream sizes. MaxEnt model presented that potential distribution displayed high inhabiting probability in Nakdonggang and its tributaries. Applying to the future scenarios by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), SSP1 scenario was predicted to expand in a wide area and SSP5 scenario in a narrow area, comparing with current potential distribution. M. daimoji is not only directly threatened by physical disturbances (e.g. river development activities) but also vulnerable to rapidly changing climate circumstances. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the habitat environments and establish conservation strategies for preserving population of M. daimoji.