• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of variables

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Development of Deep-Learning-Based Models for Predicting Groundwater Levels in the Middle-Jeju Watershed, Jeju Island (딥러닝 기법을 이용한 제주도 중제주수역 지하수위 예측 모델개발)

  • Park, Jaesung;Jeong, Jiho;Jeong, Jina;Kim, Ki-Hong;Shin, Jaehyeon;Lee, Dongyeop;Jeong, Saebom
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.697-723
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    • 2022
  • Data-driven models to predict groundwater levels 30 days in advance were developed for 12 groundwater monitoring stations in the middle-Jeju watershed, Jeju Island. Stacked long short-term memory (stacked-LSTM), a deep learning technique suitable for time series forecasting, was used for model development. Daily time series data from 2001 to 2022 for precipitation, groundwater usage amount, and groundwater level were considered. Various models were proposed that used different combinations of the input data types and varying lengths of previous time series data for each input variable. A general procedure for deep-learning-based model development is suggested based on consideration of the comparative validation results of the tested models. A model using precipitation, groundwater usage amount, and previous groundwater level data as input variables outperformed any model neglecting one or more of these data categories. Using extended sequences of these past data improved the predictions, possibly owing to the long delay time between precipitation and groundwater recharge, which results from the deep groundwater level in Jeju Island. However, limiting the range of considered groundwater usage data that significantly affected the groundwater level fluctuation (rather than using all the groundwater usage data) improved the performance of the predictive model. The developed models can predict the future groundwater level based on the current amount of precipitation and groundwater use. Therefore, the models provide information on the soundness of the aquifer system, which will help to prepare management plans to maintain appropriate groundwater quantities.

Warm Season Hydro-Meteorological Variability in South Korea Due to SSTA Pattern Changes in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Region (열대 태평양 SSTA 패턴 변화에 따른 우리나라 여름철 수문 변동 분석)

  • Yoon, Sun-kwon;Kim, Jong-Suk;Lee, Tae-Sam;Moon, Young-IL
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-63
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we analyzed the effects of regional hydrologic variability during warm season (June-September) in South Korea due to ENSO (El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation) pattern changes over the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). We performed composite analysis (CA) and statistical significance test by Student's t-test using observed hydrologic data (such as, precipitation and streamflow) in the 113 sub-watershed areas over the 5-Major River basin, in South Korea. As a result of this study, during the warm-pool (WP) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year shows a significant increasing tendency than normal years. Particularly, during the cold-tongue (CT) El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ decaying years clearly decreasing tendency compared to the normal years was appeared. In addition, the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ years tended to show a slightly increasing tendency and maintain the average year state. In addition, from the result of scatter plot of the percentage anomaly of hydrologic variables during warm season, it is possible to identify the linear increasing tendency. Also the center of the scatter plot shows during the WP El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ year (+17.93%, +26.99%), the CT El $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (-8.20%, -15.73%), and the La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$ year (+8.89%, +15.85%), respectively. This result shows a methodology of the tele-connection based long-range water resources prediction for reducing climate forecasting uncertainty, when occurs the abnormal SSTA (such as, El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$ and La $Ni{\tilde{n}}a$) phenomenon in the TPO region. Furthermore, it can be a useful data for water managers and end-users to support long-range water-related policy making.

A STUDY ON THE CORRELATIONSHIP OF SUBMENTOVERTEX VIEW AND LATERAL CEPHALOGRAM MEASUREMENTS (이하두정방사선사진과 측모두부방사선사진상에서의 계측치 상호연관성에 관한연구)

  • Cho, Jae-Hyung;Ryu, Young-Kyu
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.414-420
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    • 1996
  • Cephalometric measureements have disadvantage of representing cranio-facial structures in two dimension only and therefore they pose limitations in describing three-dimentional structures of cranio-facial region. More interests have been put on the correlation between the two planes. This study evaluated correlations between facial type score, which allows effects on malocclusion, growth change prediction and establishment of treatment method and prognosis, and measurements from submentovertex view. Cephalometric view and submentovertex view were taken of skeletal Class I adults with optimal profile and correlations between them have been observed. Following results were obtained: 1. To learn about factors that influence average condylar angulation, FACE, INT-CO-ANG, MN-CORPUS, CON-RATIO, GON-RATIO, MN-RATIO were used as variables and underwent multiple regression analysis. As a result, the following equation was obtained : CON-AVE=.l73(FACE)-.322(INT-CO-ANG)+36.34(GON-RATIO) +.420(MN-CORPUS) (($R^2=.85451$) 2. The following equation was obtained concerning facial type score. FACE= .050(CON-ANG)+.023(INT-CO-ANG)-.075(MN-CORPUS)($R^2=.31547$) 3. Among the submentovertex measurements, MN-CORPUS, CON-RATIO, GON-RATIO, MN-RATIO showed close correlations. (P<0.05) 4. Average condylar angualtions were $23.37^{\circ}$ on the right and $20.71^{\circ}$ on left. There was a difference between the two. FACE : facial type soore. CON-ANG: mean value of condylar angulation. CON-AVE: mean value of Rt. Lt condylar angulation. INT-CO-ANG : angle between Rt. Lt condylar axis. MN-CORPUS : angle formed between RT. Lt gonion & pogonion. CON-RATIO: lntercondylar distance/mandibular body length. GON-RATIO : intergonion distanoe/mandibular body length. MN-RATIO: lntermylohyoid distance/mandibular body length. MX-RATIO: intermaxillary tuberosity distance/ANS-PNS distance.

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Review of Policy Direction and Coupled Model Development between Groundwater Recharge Quantity and Climate Change (기후변화 연동 지하수 함양량 산정 모델 개발 및 정책방향 고찰)

  • Lee, Moung-Jin;Lee, Joung-Ho;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Houng, Hyun-Jung
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.157-184
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    • 2010
  • Global climate change is destroying the water circulation balance by changing rates of precipitation, recharge and discharge, and evapotranspiration. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) makes "changes in rainfall pattern due to climate system changes and consequent shortage of available water resource" a high priority as the weakest part among the effects of human environment caused by future climate changes. Groundwater, which occupies a considerable portion of the world's water resources, is related to climate change via surface water such as rivers, lakes, and marshes, and "direct" interactions, being indirectly affected through recharge. Therefore, in order to quantify the effects of climate change on groundwater resources, it is necessary to not only predict the main variables of climate change but to also accurately predict the underground rainfall recharge quantity. In this paper, the authors selected a relevant climate change scenario, In this context, the authors selected A1B from the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) which is distributed at Korea Meteorological Administration. By using data on temperature, rainfall, soil, and land use, the groundwater recharge rate for the research area was estimated by period and embodied as geographic information system (GIS). In order to calculate the groundwater recharge quantity, Visual HELP3 was used as main model for groundwater recharge, and the physical properties of weather, temperature, and soil layers were used as main input data. General changes to water circulation due to climate change have already been predicted. In order to systematically solve problems associated with how the groundwater resource circulation system should be reflected in future policies pertaining to groundwater resources, it may be urgent to recalculate the groundwater recharge quantity and consequent quantity for using via prediction of climate change in Korea in the future and then reflection of the results. The space-time calculation of changes to the groundwater recharge quantity in the study area may serve as a foundation to present additional measures for the improved management of domestic groundwater resources.

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An Analysis on Factors Related to the Job Satisfaction of Dental Hygienists at J Region (J지역 치과위생사의 직무스트레스 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Hyun-Ok;Ju, On-Ju;Kim, Young-Im
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the job stress and job stressors of dental hygienists. The subjects in the study were 220 dental hygienists who worked in north Jeolla province. After a mail survey was conducted from July 24 through September 24, 2006, the responses from 180 dental hygienists(response rate 81.8%) were gathered, and 156 answer sheets were analyzed except 24 incomplete ones that couldn't be analyzable. The findings of the study were as follows: 1. As for the correlation of overall job stress to turnover intention, their entire stress was under the influence of unreasonable treatment (r = 0.382), conflicts as a professional(r = 0.285), tough working environments(r = 0.303), conflicts with colleagues(r = 0.233), and heavy workload (r = 0.262). Those who were more stressed were more willing to change their occupation, and their stress level made a statistically significant difference to that(p < 0.01). 2. A multiple regression analysis was carried out by selecting the job stressors and turnover intention as independent and dependent variables respectively to see how each of the stressors affected job stress. And unreasonable treatment(p < 0.001) was identified as what had the biggest impact on that, followed by conflicts as a professional(p < 0.05), and tough working environments (p < 0.05). The stressors made a 22.2% prediction of turnover intention.

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Health Care Utilization Pattern and Its Related Factors of Low-income Population with Abnormal Results through Health Examination (저소득층 건강검진 유소견자의 의료이용 양상 및 관련요인)

  • Kwon, Bog-Soon;Kam, Sin;Han, Chang-Hyun
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.87-105
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the health care utilization pattern and its related factors of low-income population with abnormal results through health examination. Methods: Analysed data were collected through a questionnaire survey, which was given to 263 persons who 30 years or over with abnormal results through health examination at Health Center. This survey was conducted in March, 2003. This study employed Andersen's prediction model as most well known medical demand mode and data were analysed through 2-test, and multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: The proportion of medical utilization for thorough examination or treatment among study subjects was 51.0%. In multiple logistic regression analysis as dependent variable with medical utilization, the variables affecting the medical utilization were 'feeling about abnormal result(anxiety versus no anxiety: odds ratio 2.25, 95% confidence intervals 1.07-4.75)', 'type of health security(medicaid type I versus health insurance: odds ratio 2.82, 95% confidence intervals 1.04-7.66; medicaid type II versus health insurance: odds ratio 3.22, 95% confidence intervals 1.37-7.53)', 'experience of health examination during past 2 years(odds ratio 2.39, 95% confidence intervals 1.09-5.21)' and 'family member's response for abnormal result(recommendation for medical utilization versus no response: odds ratio 4.90, 95% confidence intervals 1.75-13.75; family member recommended to utilize medical facilities with him/her versus no response: odds ratio 19.47, 95% confidence intervals 5.01-75.73)'. The time of medical utilization was 8-15 days after they received the result(29.9%), 16-30 days after they receive the result(27.6%), 2-7 days after they received the result(20.9%) in order. The most important reason why they didn't take a medical utilization was that it seemed insignificant to them(32.4%). Conclusions: In order to promote medical utilization of low-income population, health education for abnormal result and its management would be necessary to family member as well as person with abnormal result. And follow-up management program for person with abnormal result through health examination such as home-visit health care would be necessary.

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Habitat characteristics and prediction of potential distribution according to climate change for Macromia daimoji Okumura, 1949 (Odonata: Macromiidae) (노란잔산잠자리(Macromia daimojiOkumura, 1949)의 서식지 특성 및 기후변화에 따른 잠재적 분포 예측)

  • Soon Jik Kwon;Hyeok Yeong Kwon;In Chul Hwang;Chang Su Lee;Tae Geun Kim;Jae Heung Park;Yung Chul Jun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2024
  • Macromia daimoji Okumura, 1949 was designated as an endangered species and also categorized as Class II Endangered wildlife on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List in Korea. The spatial distribution of this species ranged within a region delimited by northern latitude from Sacheon-si(35.1°) to Yeoncheon-gun(38.0°) and eastern longitude from Yeoncheon-gun(126.8°) to Yangsan-si(128.9°). They generally prefer microhabitats such as slowly flowing littoral zones of streams, alluvial stream islands and temporarily formed puddles in the sand-based lowland streams. The objectives of this study were to analyze the similarity of benthic macroinvertebrate communities in M. daimoji habitats, to predict the current potential distribution patterns as well as the changes of distribution ranges under global climate change circumstances. Data was collected both from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and by field surveys from April 2009 to September 2022. We adopted MaxEnt model to predict the current and future potential distribution for M. daimoji using downloaded 19 variables from the WorldClim database. The differences of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in the mainstream of Nakdonggang were smaller than those in its tributaries and the other streams, based on the surrounding environments and stream sizes. MaxEnt model presented that potential distribution displayed high inhabiting probability in Nakdonggang and its tributaries. Applying to the future scenarios by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), SSP1 scenario was predicted to expand in a wide area and SSP5 scenario in a narrow area, comparing with current potential distribution. M. daimoji is not only directly threatened by physical disturbances (e.g. river development activities) but also vulnerable to rapidly changing climate circumstances. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the habitat environments and establish conservation strategies for preserving population of M. daimoji.

Factors Affecting Blood Pressure of Aged People in Rural Area (일부농촌지역노인(一部農村地域老人)들의 혈압(血壓)과 관계(關係)된 제요인분석(諸要因分析))

  • Kil, Sang-Sun;Ki, No-Suk;Hwang, In-Dam
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.42-48
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    • 1985
  • This study was carried out to obtain the basic data for epdemiological survey of hypertension in old population (60 years or more). From May, 1983 to April, 1984, 365 males and 335 females who inhabit in Ko-Chang Gun, Chonbuk Province were investigated for several factors as their socio-econmic status and laboratory examinations with blood pressure, and which factors were analysed by simple correlation and multiple regression analysis. The results are summarized as follows; 1) Sample size of this study is equivalent to 5.2%(male;6.7%, female;4.3%) of population in 60 years or more age group, and the mean age of samples is 70.6${\pm}$5.3 (yr.) in males and 71.4${\pm}$5.3 (yr.) in female (P>0.05). 2) Mean blood pressure of males are 135.9${\pm}$21.3mm Hg in systolic and 85.3${\pm}$13.4mm Hg in diastolic phase and in female, 131.0${\pm}$23.6 mm Hg and 84.1${\pm}$19.9 mm Hg (P < 0.01). Their prevalence rates of hypertension (${\geq}$ 140 mm Hg in systolic, ${\geq}$ 95 mm Hg in diastolic phases) are 33.7% in males, 40.6% in females (P < 0.01). 3) Serum cholesterol levels and other independent variables are revealed in normal ranges, and except to Vervaeck index (89.4${\pm}$5.6 in males, 87.5${\pm}$6.7 in females, p<0.01), other are not significant sexual differences (P>0.05). 4) In the simple correlation analysis, the main factors that affect to blood pressure are serum cholesterol levels (P < 0.05) and Vervaeck index (P < 0.01) in males, age (P <0.05) and Vervaeck index (P <0.01) in females. 5) In multiple regression analysis, prediction equations for blood pressure are calculated as follows; Ysm=-64.55+0.161(X1)+0.124(X2)-0.047(X3)+1.953(X4) Ydm=18.61-0.125(X1)+0.060(X2)+0.032(X3)+0.720(X4) Ysf=-0.22+0.536(X1)+0.134(X2)+0.068(X3+0.788(X4) Yaf=-14.46+0.685(X1)+0.033(X2)+0.176(X3)+0.362(X4) Ysm : Systolic blood pressure in male, Ydm : Diastolic blood pressure in male, Ysf : Systolic blood pressure in female, Ydf : Diastolic blood pressure in female. X1 : Age(year), X2 : Serum cholesterol level (mg%), X3 : Fastin blood sugar (mg% ), X4 : Vervaeck index.

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Sensitivity of Aerosol Optical Parameters on the Atmospheric Radiative Heating Rate (에어로졸 광학변수가 대기복사가열률 산정에 미치는 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Woo;Choi, In-Jin;Yoon, Soon-Chang;Kim, Yumi
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2013
  • We estimate atmospheric radiative heating effect of aerosols, based on AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and lidar observations and radiative transfer calculations. The column radiation model (CRM) is modified to ingest the AERONET measured variables (aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric parameter) and subsequently calculate the optical parameters at the 19 bands from the data obtained at four wavelengths. The aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and the top of the atmosphere, and atmospheric absorption on pollution (April 15, 2001) and dust (April 17~18, 2001) days are 3~4 times greater than those on clear-sky days (April 14 and 16, 2001). The atmospheric radiative heating rate (${\Delta}H$) and heating rate by aerosols (${\Delta}H_{aerosol}$) are estimated to be about $3\;K\;day^{-1}$ and $1{\sim}3\;K\;day^{-1}$ for pollution and dust aerosol layers. The sensitivity test showed that a 10% uncertainty in the single scattering albedo results in 30% uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere and 60% uncertainties in atmospheric forcing, thereby translated to about 35% uncertainties in ${\Delta}H$. This result suggests that atmospheric radiative heating is largely determined by the amount of light-absorbing aerosols.

Predicting the Potential Habitat and Future Distribution of Brachydiplax chalybea flavovittata Ris, 1911 (Odonata: Libellulidae) (기후변화에 따른 남색이마잠자리 잠재적 서식지 및 미래 분포예측)

  • Soon Jik Kwon;Yung Chul Jun;Hyeok Yeong Kwon;In Chul Hwang;Chang Su Lee;Tae Geun Kim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.335-344
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    • 2023
  • Brachydiplax chalybea flavovittata, a climate-sensitive biological indicator species, was first observed and recorded at Jeju Island in Korea in 2010. Overwintering was recently confirmed in the Yeongsan River area. This study was aimed to predict the potential distribution patterns for the larvae of B. chalybea flavovittata and to understand its ecological characteristics as well as changes of population under global climate change circumstances. Data was collected both from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and by field surveys from May 2019 to May 2023. We used for the distribution model among downloaded 19 variables from the WorldClim database. MaxEnt model was adopted for the prediction of potential and future distribution for B. chalybea flavovittata. Larval distribution ranged within a region delimited by northern latitude from Jeju-si, Jeju Special Self-Governing Province (33.318096°) to Yeoju-si, Gyeonggi-do (37.366734°) and eastern longitude from Jindo-gun, Jeollanam-do (126.054925°) to Yangsan-si, Gyeongsangnam-do (129.016472°). M type (permanent rivers, streams and creeks) wetlands were the most common habitat based on the Ramsar's wetland classification system, followed by Tp type (permanent freshwater marshes and pools) (45.8%) and F type (estuarine waters) (4.2%). MaxEnt model presented that potential distribution with high inhabiting probability included Ulsan and Daegu Metropolitan City in addition to the currently discovered habitats. Applying to the future scenarios by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it was predicted that the possible distribution area would expand in the 2050s and 2090s, covering the southern and western coastal regions, the southern Daegu metropolitan area and the eastern coastal regions in the near future. This study suggests that B. chalybea flavovittata can be used as an effective indicator species for climate changes with a monitoring of their distribution ranges. Our findings will also help to provide basic information on the conservation and management of co-existing native species.