• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.123-131
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• 2020

There have been a lot of studies in the past for the method of predicting the failure of a machine, and recently, a lot of researches and applications have been generated to diagnose the physical condition of the machine and the parts and to calculate the remaining life through various methods. Survival models are also used to predict plant failures based on past anomaly cycles. In particular, special machine that reflect the fluid flow and process characteristics of chemical plants are connected to hundreds or thousands of sensors, so there are not many factors that need to be considered, such as process and material data as well as application of derivative variables. In this paper, the data were preprocessed through time series anomaly detection based on unsupervised learning to predict the abnormalities of these special machine. Next, clustering results reflecting clustering-based data characteristics were applied to produce additional variables, and a learning data set was created based on the history of past facility abnormalities. Finally, the prediction methodology based on the supervised learning algorithm was applied, and the model update was confirmed to improve the accuracy of the prediction of facility failure. Through this, it is expected to improve the efficiency of facility operation by flexibly replacing the maintenance time and parts supply and demand by predicting abnormalities of machine and extracting key factors.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.57-65
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• 2008

In the vehicle design, the research on driving posture has stood out as one of the important issues. Recently, the research on 3D human modeling focused on more exact implementation of real driving posture. However, prediction of driving posture through the 3D human modeling fail to reflect on the model the phenomenon called sagging, which refers to the retraction or shrinking of the torso while driving. 30 male subjects participated in the experiment where total subjects were divided into four groups according to height percentile(under 50%ile, 51%ile to 75%ile, 76%ile to 95%ile, over 95%ile). The independent variables were seat back angle(4 levels) and seat pan angle(2 levels). The dependent variable was capacity or the degree of retraction of the torso. First this study measured the sagging capacity by using a paired T-test between erect and retracted posture. Secondly it was tried to find out significant anthropometric variables that were statistically correlated by the analysis of correlation. Finally, a prediction model was derived which explains the capacity of sagging.

• Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.11-15
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• 2018

Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer related death among women. So prediction of overall survival status is important into decided in adjuvant treatment. Deep belief network is a kind of artificial intelligence (AI). We intended to construct prediction model by deep belief network using associated clinicopathologic factors. 103881 cases were found in the Korean Breast Cancer Registry. After preprocessing of data, a total of 15733 cases were enrolled in this study. The median follow-up period was 82.4 months. In univariate analysis for overall survival (OS), the patients with advanced AJCC stage showed relatively high HR (HR=1.216 95% CI: 0.011-289.331, p=0.001). Based on results of univariate and multivariate analysis, input variables for learning model included 17 variables associated with overall survival rate. output was presented in one of two states: event or cencored. Individual sensitivity of training set and test set for predicting overall survival status were 89.6% and 91.2% respectively. And specificity of that were 49.4% and 48.9% respectively. So the accuracy of our study for predicting overall survival status was 82.78%. Prediction model based on Deep belief network appears to be effective in predicting overall survival status and, in particular, is expected to be applicable to decide on adjuvant treatment after surgical treatment.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.457-465
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• 2017

The Taiwanese liquid crystal display (LCD) industry has traditionally produced a huge amount of waste glass that is placed in landfills. Waste glass recycling can reduce the material costs of concrete and promote sustainable environmental protection activities. Concrete is always utilized as structural material; thus, the concrete compressive strength with a variety of mixtures must be studied using predictive models to achieve more precise results. To create an efficient waste LCD glass concrete (WLGC) design proportion, the related studies utilized a multivariable regression analysis to develop a compressive strength waste LCD glass concrete equation. The mix design proportion for waste LCD glass and the compressive strength relationship is complex and nonlinear. This results in a prediction weakness for the multivariable regression model during the initial growing phase of the compressive strength of waste LCD glass concrete. Thus, the R ratio for the predictive multivariable regression model is 0.96. Neural networks (NN) have a superior ability to handle nonlinear relationships between multiple variables by incorporating supervised learning. This study developed a multivariable prediction model for the determination of waste LCD glass concrete compressive strength by analyzing a series of laboratory test results and utilizing a neural network algorithm that was obtained in a related prior study. The current study also trained the prediction model for the compressive strength of waste LCD glass by calculating the effects of several types of factor combinations, such as the different number of input variables and the relevant filter for input variables. These types of factor combinations have been adjusted to enhance the predictive ability based on the training mechanism of the NN and the characteristics of waste LCD glass concrete. The selection priority of the input variable strategy is that evaluating relevance is better than adding dimensions for the NN prediction of the compressive strength of WLGC. The prediction ability of the model is examined using test results from the same data pool. The R ratio was determined to be approximately 0.996. Using the appropriate input variables from neural networks, the model validation results indicated that the model prediction attains greater accuracy than the multivariable regression model during the initial growing phase of compressive strength. Therefore, the neural-based predictive model for compressive strength promotes the application of waste LCD glass concrete.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.455-464
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• 2012

This study investigates a 12 month-lead predictability of PNU Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) V1.1 hindcast, for which an oceanic data assimilated initialization is used to generate ocean initial condition. The CGCM, a participant model of APEC Climate Center (APCC) long-lead multi-model ensemble system, has been initialized at each and every month and performed 12-month-lead hindcast for each month during 1980 to 2011. The 12-month-lead hindcast consisted of 2-5 ensembles and this study verified the ensemble averaged hindcast. As for the sea-surface temperature concerns, it remained high level of confidence especially over the tropical Pacific and the mid-latitude central Pacific with slight declining of temporal correlation coefficients (TCC) as lead month increased. The CGCM revealed trustworthy ENSO prediction skills in most of hindcasts, in particular. For atmospheric variables, like air temperature, precipitation, and geopotential height at 500hPa, reliable prediction results have been shown during entire lead time in most of domain, particularly over the equatorial region. Though the TCCs of hindcasted precipitation are lower than other variables, a skillful precipitation forecasts is also shown over highly variable regions such as ITCZ. This study also revealed that there are seasonal and regional dependencies on predictability for each variable and lead.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.329-338
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• 2021

This study predicts the amount of wind power generation for rational operation plan of wind power generation and capacity calculation of ESS. For forecasting, we present a method of predicting wind power generation by combining a physical approach and a statistical approach. The factors of wind power generation are analyzed and variables are selected. By collecting historical data of the selected variables, the amount of wind power generation is predicted using deep learning. The model used is a hybrid model that combines a bidirectional long short term memory (LSTM) and a convolution neural network (CNN) algorithm. To compare the prediction performance, this model is compared with the model and the error which consist of the MLP(:Multi Layer Perceptron) algorithm, The results is presented to evaluate the prediction performance.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.1-6
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• 2021

This research examines the stock market index determinants and the prediction using the FFT curve fitting of the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE) Composite Index during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper has used daily data of Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE) Composite Index, interest rate, and exchange rate from 15 October 2019 to 15 September 2020, and a total of 224 observations, retrieved from Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Indonesia Statistics Central Bureau and Observation & Research of Taxation. The study covers descriptive statistics, multicollinearity test, hypothesis tests, determination test, and prediction using FFT curve fitting. The results unveil four fresh and robust evidence. Partially, the interest rate has affected positively and significantly the stock market index. Partially, the exchange rate has affected negatively and significantly the stock market index. The F-test result, interest rate, and exchange rate have significantly affected the stock market index (JKSE) simultaneously. Furthermore, the FFT curve fitting has predicted that the stock market fluctuates and increases over time. The results have shown a strong influence of the independent variables and the dependent variable. The value of Adjusted R-Square is 0.719, which means that the independent variables have simultaneously impacted the dependent variable for 71.9%; other factors have influenced the remaining 28.1%.

• 한국태양에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.04a
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• pp.184-189
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• 2009

In order to improve the operation of energy systems, it is necessary for the urban communities to have reliable optimization routines, both computerized and manual, implemented in their organizations. However, before a production plan for the energy system units can be constructed, a prediction of the energy systems first needs to be determined. So, several methodologies have been proposed for energy demand prediction, but due to uncertainties in urban community, many of them will fail in practice. The main topic of this paper has been the development of a method for energy demand prediction at urban community. Energy demand prediction is important input parameters to plan for the energy planing. This paper presents a energy demand prediction method which estimates heat and electricity for various building categories. The method has been based on artificial neural networks(ANN). The advantage of ANN with respect to the other method is their ability of modeling a multivariable problem given by the complex relationships between the variables. Also, the ANN can extract the relationships among these variables by means of learning with training data. In this paper, the ANN have been applied in oder to correlate weather conditions, calendar data, schedules, etc. Space heating, cooling, hot water and HVAC electricity can be predicted using this method. This method can produce 10% of errors hourly load profile from individual building to urban community.

• Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.1-7
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• 2008

This study quantified 7 trunk muscles' physiological cross-sectional areas (PCSAs) and developed prediction equations for the physiological cross-sectional area as a function of anthropometic variables for Korean people. Nine females and nine males were participated in the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans approximately from S1 through T8. Muscle fiber angle corrected cross-sectional areas (anatomical cross sectional areas: ACSAs) were recorded at each vertebral level and maximum value of ACSAs were determined as physiological cross sectional area (PCSA). There was a significant gender difference in PCSAs of all muscles (p<0.05). Stepwise linear regression techniques using anthropometric measures (e.g., height, weight, trunk depths and widths) as independent variables were conducted to develop prediction equations for the PCSA for each muscle. For males, six muscles' significant prediction equations (p<0.05) were developed except quadratus lumborum. For females, three prediction equations were developed for psoas, quadratus lumborum, and erector spinae muscles (p<0.05).

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.136-136
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• 2022

This study investigates the possibility of coupling empirical mode decomposition (EMD) for runoff prediction from machine learning (ML) models. Here, support vector regression (SVR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) were considered for ML algorithms. Precipitation (P), minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and their intrinsic mode functions (IMF) values were used for input variables at a monthly scale from Jan. 1973 to Dec. 2020 in the Grand river basin, Canada. The support vector machine-recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) technique was applied for finding the best combination of predictors among input variables. The results show that the proposed method outperformed the individual performance of SVR and CNN during the training and testing periods in the study area. According to the correlation coefficient (R), the EMD-SVR model outperformed the EMD-CNN model in both training and testing even though the CNN indicated a better performance than the SVR before using IMF values. The EMD-SVR model showed higher improvement in R value (38.7%) than that from the EMD-CNN model (7.1%). It should be noted that the coupled models of EMD-SVR and EMD-CNN represented much higher accuracy in runoff prediction with respect to the considered evaluation indicators, including root mean square error (RMSE) and R values.