• 제목/요약/키워드: Prediction of Success

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The Role of PK/PD Modeling and Simulation in Model-based New Drug Development (모델 기반학적 신약개발에서 약동/약력학 모델링 및 시뮬레이션의 역할)

  • Yun, Hwi-Yeol;Baek, In-Hwan;Seo, Jeong-Won;Bae, Kyung-Jin;Lee, Mann-Hyung;Kang, Won-Ku;Kwon, Kwang-Il
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.84-96
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    • 2008
  • In the recent, pharmacokinetic (PK)/pharmacodynamic (PD) modeling has appeared as a critical path tools in new drug development to optimize drug efficacy and safety. PK/PD modeling is the mathematical approaches of the relationships between PK and PD. This approach in new drug development can be estimated inaccessible PK and PD parameters, evaluated competing hypothesis, and predicted the response under new conditions. Additionally, PK/PD modeling provides the information about systemic conditions for understanding the pharmacology and biology. These advantages of PK/PD model development are to provide the early decision-making information in new drug development process, and to improve the prediction power for the success of clinical trials. The purpose of this review article is to summarize the PK/PD modeling process, and to provide the theoretical and practical information about widely used PK/PD models. This review also provides model schemes and the differential equations for the development of PK/PD model.

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A Hybrid Multi-Level Feature Selection Framework for prediction of Chronic Disease

  • G.S. Raghavendra;Shanthi Mahesh;M.V.P. Chandrasekhara Rao
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.23 no.12
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    • pp.101-106
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    • 2023
  • Chronic illnesses are among the most common serious problems affecting human health. Early diagnosis of chronic diseases can assist to avoid or mitigate their consequences, potentially decreasing mortality rates. Using machine learning algorithms to identify risk factors is an exciting strategy. The issue with existing feature selection approaches is that each method provides a distinct set of properties that affect model correctness, and present methods cannot perform well on huge multidimensional datasets. We would like to introduce a novel model that contains a feature selection approach that selects optimal characteristics from big multidimensional data sets to provide reliable predictions of chronic illnesses without sacrificing data uniqueness.[1] To ensure the success of our proposed model, we employed balanced classes by employing hybrid balanced class sampling methods on the original dataset, as well as methods for data pre-processing and data transformation, to provide credible data for the training model. We ran and assessed our model on datasets with binary and multivalued classifications. We have used multiple datasets (Parkinson, arrythmia, breast cancer, kidney, diabetes). Suitable features are selected by using the Hybrid feature model consists of Lassocv, decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting,Adaboost, stochastic gradient descent and done voting of attributes which are common output from these methods.Accuracy of original dataset before applying framework is recorded and evaluated against reduced data set of attributes accuracy. The results are shown separately to provide comparisons. Based on the result analysis, we can conclude that our proposed model produced the highest accuracy on multi valued class datasets than on binary class attributes.[1]

A gene expression programming-based model to predict water inflow into tunnels

  • Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh;Hawkar Hashim Ibrahim;Laith R. Flaih;Abed Alanazi;Abdullah Alqahtani;Shtwai Alsubai;Nabil Ben Kahla;Adil Hussein Mohammed
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2024
  • Water ingress poses a common and intricate geological hazard with profound implications for tunnel construction's speed and safety. The project's success hinges significantly on the precision of estimating water inflow during excavation, a critical factor in early-stage decision-making during conception and design. This article introduces an optimized model employing the gene expression programming (GEP) approach to forecast tunnel water inflow. The GEP model was refined by developing an equation that best aligns with predictive outcomes. The equation's outputs were compared with measured data and assessed against practical scenarios to validate its potential applicability in calculating tunnel water input. The optimized GEP model excelled in forecasting tunnel water inflow, outperforming alternative machine learning algorithms like SVR, GPR, DT, and KNN. This positions the GEP model as a leading choice for accurate and superior predictions. A state-of-the-art machine learning-based graphical user interface (GUI) was innovatively crafted for predicting and visualizing tunnel water inflow. This cutting-edge tool leverages ML algorithms, marking a substantial advancement in tunneling prediction technologies, providing accuracy and accessibility in water inflow projections.

Feasibility Evaluation of High-Tech New Product Development Projects Using Support Vector Machines

  • Shin, Teak-Soo;Noh, Jeon-Pyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 2005
  • New product development (NPD) is defined as the transformation of a market opportunity and a set of assumptions about product technology into a product available for sale. Managers charged with project selection decisions in the NPD process, such as go/no-go choices and specific resource allocation decisions, are faced with a complicated problem. Therefore, the ability to develop new successful products has identifies as a major determinant in sustaining a firm's competitive advantage. The purpose of this study is to develop a new evaluation model for NPD project selection in the high -tech industry using support vector machines (SYM). The evaluation model is developed through two phases. In the first phase, binary (go/no-go) classification prediction model, i.e. SVM for high-tech NPD project selection is developed. In the second phase. using the predicted output value of SVM, feasibility grade is calculated for the final NPD project decision making. In this study, the feasibility grades are also divided as three level grades. We assume that the frequency of NPD project cases is symmetrically determined according to the feasibility grades and misclassification errors are partially minimized by the multiple grades. However, the horizon of grade level can be changed by firms' NPD strategy. Our proposed feasibility grade method is more reasonable in NPD decision problems by considering particularly risk factor of NPD in viewpoints of future NPD success probability. In our empirical study using Korean NPD cases, the SVM significantly outperformed ANN and logistic regression as benchmark models in hit ratio. And the feasibility grades generated from the predicted output value of SVM showed that they can offer a useful guideline for NPD project selection.

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Extracting the Distribution Potential Area of Debris Landform Using a Fuzzy Set Model (퍼지집합 모델을 이용한 암설지형 분포 가능지 추출 연구)

  • Wi, Nun-Sol;JANG, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.77-91
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    • 2017
  • Many debris landforms in the mountains of Korea have formed in the periglacial environment during the last glacial stage when the generation of sediments was active. Because these landforms are generally located on steep slopes and mostly covered by vegetation, however, it is difficult to observe and access them through field investigation. A scientific method is required to reduce the survey range before performing field investigation and to save time and cost. For this purpose, the use of remote sensing and GIS technologies is essential. This study has extracted the potential area of debris landform formation using a fuzzy set model as a mathematical data integration method. The first step was to obtain information about the location of debris landforms and their related factors. This information was verified through field observation and then used to build a database. In the second step, we conducted the fuzzy set modeling to generate a map, which classified the study area based on the possibility of debris formation. We then applied a cross-validation technique in order to evaluate the map. For a quantitative analysis, the calculated potential rate of debris formation was evaluated by plotting SRC(Success Rate Curve) and calculating AUC(Area Under the Curve). The prediction accuracy of the model was found to be 83.1%. We posit that the model is accurate and reliable enough to contribute to efficient field investigation and debris landform management.

The Study on the Extraction of the Distribution Potential Area of Debris Landform Using Fuzzy Set and Bayesian Predictive Discriminate Model (퍼지집합과 베이지안 확률 기법을 이용한 암설사면지형 분포지역 추출에 관한 연구)

  • Wi, Nun-Sol;JANG, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.105-118
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    • 2017
  • The debris slope landforms which are existent in Korean mountains is generally on the steep slopes and mostly covered by vegetation, it is difficult to investigate the landform. Therefore a scientific method is required to come up with an effective field investigation plan. For this purpose, the use of Remote Sensing and GIS technologies for a spatial analysis is essential. This study has extracted the potential area of debrisslope landform formation using Fuzzy set and Bayesian Predictive Discriminate Model as mathematical data integration methods. The first step was to obtain information about debris locations and their related factors. This information was verified through field investigation and then used to build a database. In the second step, the map that zoning the study area based on the degree of debris formation possibility was generated using two modeling methods, and then cross validation technique was applied. In order to quantitatively analyze the accuracy of two modeling methods, the calculated potential rate of debrisformation within the study area was evaluated by plotting SRC(Success Rate Curve) and calculating AUC(Area Under the Curve). As a result, the prediction accuracy of Fuzzy set model wes 83.1% and Bayesian Predictive Discriminate Model wes 84.9%. It showed that two models are accurate and reliable and can contribute to efficient field investigation and debris landform management.

Image Augmentation of Paralichthys Olivaceus Disease Using SinGAN Deep Learning Model (SinGAN 딥러닝 모델을 이용한 넙치 질병 이미지 증강)

  • Son, Hyun Seung;Choi, Han Suk
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.322-330
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    • 2021
  • In modern aquaculture, mass mortality is a very important issue that determines the success of aquaculture business. If a fish disease is not detected at an early stage in the farm, the disease spreads quickly because the farm is a closed environment. Therefore, early detection of diseases is crucial to prevent mass mortality of fish raised in farms. Recently deep learning-based automatic identification of fish diseases has been widely used, but there are many difficulties in identifying objects due to insufficient images of fish diseases. Therefore, this paper suggests a method to generate a large number of fish disease images by synthesizing normal images and disease images using SinGAN deep learning model in order to to solve the lack of fish disease images. We generate images from the three most frequently occurring Paralichthys Olivaceus diseases such as Scuticociliatida, Vibriosis, and Lymphocytosis and compare them with the original image. In this study, a total of 330 sheets of scutica disease, 110 sheets of vibrioemia, and 110 sheets of limphosis were made by synthesizing 10 disease patterns with 11 normal halibut images, and 1,320 images were produced by quadrupling the images.

Neurological Dynamic Development Cycles of Abstractions in Math Learning (수학학습의 추상적 개념발달에 대한 뇌신경학적 역동학습 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyungkyu
    • Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.559-566
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    • 2014
  • This is to understand the neurological dynamic cognitive processes of math learning based on the abstract mappings( level A2), abstract systems(level A3), and single principles(level A4), which are principles of Fischer's cognitive development theory. Math learning requires flexibility to adapt existing brain function in selecting new neurophysiological activities to learn desired knowledge. This study suggests a general statistical framework for the identification of neurological patterns in different abstract learning change with optimal support. We expected that functional brain networks derived from a simple math learning would change dynamically during the supportive learning associated with different abstract levels. Task based patterns of the brain structure and function on representations of underlying connectivity suggests the possible prediction for the success of the supportive learning.

Defect Severity-based Ensemble Model using FCM (FCM을 적용한 결함심각도 기반 앙상블 모델)

  • Lee, Na-Young;Kwon, Ki-Tae
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.22 no.12
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    • pp.681-686
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    • 2016
  • Software defect prediction is an important factor in efficient project management and success. The severity of the defect usually determines the degree to which the project is affected. However, existing studies focus only on the presence or absence of a defect and not the severity of defect. In this study, we proposed an ensemble model using FCM based on defect severity. The severity of the defect of NASA data set's PC4 was reclassified. To select the input column that affected the severity of the defect, we extracted the important defect factor of the data set using Random Forest (RF). We evaluated the performance of the model by changing the parameters in the 10-fold cross-validation. The evaluation results were as follows. First, defect severities were reclassified from 58, 40, 80 to 30, 20, 128. Second, BRANCH_COUNT was an important input column for the degree of severity in terms of accuracy and node impurities. Third, smaller tree number led to more variables for good performance.

Observing System Experiments Using the Intensive Observation Data during KEOP-2005 (KEOP-2005 집중관측자료를 이용한 관측시스템 실험 연구)

  • Won, Hye Young;Park, Chang-Geun;Kim, Yeon-Hee;Lee, Hee-Sang;Cho, Chun-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.299-316
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    • 2008
  • The intensive upper-air observation network was organized over southwestern region of the Korean Peninsula during the Korea Enhanced Observing Program in 2005 (KEOP-2005). In order to examine the effect of additional upper-air observation on the numerical weather forecasting, three Observing System Experiments (OSEs) using Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with KEOP-2005 data are conducted. Cold start case with KEOP-2005 data presents a remarkable predictability difference with only conventional observation data in the downstream and along the Changma front area. The sensitivity of the predictability tends to decrease under the stable atmosphere. Our results indicates that the effect of intensive observation plays a role in the forecasting of the sensitive area in the numerical model, especially under the unstable atmospheric conditions. When the intensive upper-air observation data (KEOP-2005 data) are included in the OSEs, the predictability of precipitation is partially improved. Especially, when KEOP-2005 data are assimilated at 6-hour interval, the predictability on the heavy rainfall showing higher Critical Success Index (CSI) is highly improved. Therefore it is found that KEOP-2005 data play an important role in improving the position and intensity of the simulated precipitation system.