• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of Success

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A Study on the Prediction Index for Chart Success of Digital Music Contents based on Analysis of Social Data (소셜 데이터 분석을 통한 음원 흥행 예측 지표 연구)

  • Kim, Ga-Yeon;Kim, Myoung-Jun
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.1105-1114
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    • 2018
  • The growth rate of the domestic digital music contents market has been remarkable recently. Accordingly, the necessity of prediction for chart success of digital music contents has grown. This paper proposes prediction indexes for chart success of digital music contents through analysis of correlation between social data such as Internet news, SNS and entry rankings in Melon's weekly music charts. We collected a total of 10 social data items for each male and female artist, and executed cluster analysis. Through this, we found meaningful prediction indexes for chart success of digital music contents for each male and female artist.

Prediction of rebound in shotcrete using deep bi-directional LSTM

  • Suzen, Ahmet A.;Cakiroglu, Melda A.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.555-560
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    • 2019
  • During the application of shotcrete, a part of the concrete bounces back after hitting to the surface, the reinforcement or previously sprayed concrete. This rebound material is definitely not added to the mixture and considered as waste. In this study, a deep neural network model was developed to predict the rebound material during shotcrete application. The factors affecting rebound and the datasets of these parameters were obtained from previous experiments. The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture of the proposed deep neural network model was used in accordance with this data set. In the development of the proposed four-tier prediction model, the dataset was divided into 90% training and 10% test. The deep neural network was modeled with 11 dependents 1 independent data by determining the most appropriate hyper parameter values for prediction. Accuracy and error performance in success performance of LSTM model were evaluated over MSE and RMSE. A success of 93.2% was achieved at the end of training of the model and a success of 85.6% in the test. There was a difference of 7.6% between training and test. In the following stage, it is aimed to increase the success rate of the model by increasing the number of data in the data set with synthetic and experimental data. In addition, it is thought that prediction of the amount of rebound during dry-mix shotcrete application will provide economic gain as well as contributing to environmental protection.

Developing a Model for Predicting Success of Machine Learning based Health Consulting (머신러닝 기반 건강컨설팅 성공여부 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Sang Ho;Song, Tae-Min
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.91-103
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    • 2018
  • This study developed a prediction model using machine learning technology and predicted the success of health consulting by using life log data generated through u-Health service. The model index of the Random Forest model was the highest using. As a result of analyzing the Random Forest model, blood pressure was the most influential factor in the success or failure of metabolic syndrome in the subjects of u-Health service, followed by triglycerides, body weight, blood sugar, high cholesterol, and medication appear. muscular, basal metabolic rate and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were increased; waist circumference, Blood sugar and triglyceride were decreased. Further, biometrics and health behavior improved. After nine months of u-health services, the number of subjects with four or more factors for metabolic syndrome decreased by 28.6%; 3.7% of regular drinkers stopped drinking; 23.2% of subjects who rarely exercised began to exercise twice a week or more; and 20.0% of smokers stopped smoking. If the predictive model developed in this study is linked with CBR, it can be used as case study data of CBR with high probability of success in the prediction model to improve the compliance of the subject and to improve the qualitative effect of counseling for the improvement of the metabolic syndrome.

Interval prediction on the sum of binary random variables indexed by a graph

  • Park, Seongoh;Hahn, Kyu S.;Lim, Johan;Son, Won
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.261-272
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

A Split Criterion for Binary Decision Trees

  • Choi, Hyun Jip;Oh, Myong Rok
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.411-423
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we propose a split criterion for binary decision trees. The proposed criterion selects the optimal split by measuring the prediction success of the candidate splits at a given node. The criterion is shown to have the property of exclusive preference. Examples are given to demonstrate the properties of the criterion.

CT Angiography-Derived RECHARGE Score Predicts Successful Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Patients with Chronic Total Occlusion

  • Jiahui Li;Rui Wang;Christian Tesche;U. Joseph Schoepf;Jonathan T. Pannell;Yi He;Rongchong Huang;Yalei Chen;Jianan Li;Xiantao Song
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.697-705
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    • 2021
  • Objective: To investigate the feasibility and the accuracy of the coronary CT angiography (CCTA)-derived Registry of Crossboss and Hybrid procedures in France, the Netherlands, Belgium and United Kingdom (RECHARGE) score (RECHARGECCTA) for the prediction of procedural success and 30-minutes guidewire crossing in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for chronic total occlusion (CTO). Materials and Methods: One hundred and twenty-four consecutive patients (mean age, 54 years; 79% male) with 131 CTO lesions who underwent CCTA before catheter angiography (CA) with CTO-PCI were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The RECHARGECCTA scores were calculated and compared with RECHARGECA and other CTA-based prediction scores, including Multicenter CTO Registry of Japan (J-CTO), CT Registry of CTO Revascularisation (CT-RECTOR), and Korean Multicenter CTO CT Registry (KCCT) scores. Results: The procedural success rate of the CTO-PCI procedures was 72%, and 61% of cases achieved the 30-minutes wire crossing. No significant difference was observed between the RECHARGECCTA score and the RECHARGECA score for procedural success (median 2 vs. median 2, p = 0.084). However, the RECHARGECCTA score was higher than the RECHARGECA score for the 30-minutes wire crossing (median 2 vs. median 1.5, p = 0.001). The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the RECHARGECCTA and RECHARGECA scores for predicting procedural success showed no statistical significance (0.718 vs. 0.757, p = 0.655). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and the negative predictive value of the RECHARGECCTA scores of ≤ 2 for predictive procedural success were 78%, 60%, 43%, and 87%, respectively. The RECHARGECCTA score showed a discriminative performance that was comparable to those of the other CTA-based prediction scores (AUC = 0.718 vs. 0.665-0.717, all p > 0.05). Conclusion: The non-invasive RECHARGECCTA score performs better than the invasive determination for the prediction of the 30-minutes wire crossing of CTO-PCI. However, the RECHARGECCTA score may not replace other CTA-based prediction scores for predicting CTO-PCI success.

Prediction of Food Franchise Success and Failure Based on Machine Learning (머신러닝 기반 외식업 프랜차이즈 가맹점 성패 예측)

  • Ahn, Yelyn;Ryu, Sungmin;Lee, Hyunhee;Park, Minseo
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.347-353
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    • 2022
  • In the restaurant industry, start-ups are active due to high demand from consumers and low entry barriers. However, the restaurant industry has a high closure rate, and in the case of franchises, there is a large deviation in sales within the same brand. Thus, research is needed to prevent the closure of food franchises. Therefore, this study examines the factors affecting franchise sales and uses machine learning techniques to predict the success and failure of franchises. Various factors that affect franchise sales are extracted by using Point of Sale (PoS) data of food franchise and public data in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. And for more valid variable selection, multicollinearity is removed by using Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). Finally, classification models are used to predict the success and failure of food franchise stores. Through this method, we propose success and failure prediction model for food franchise stores with the accuracy of 0.92.

Analysis for Evaluation Factor and Success Prediction of Port Innovative Cluster Using Kohonen Network (항만혁신클러스터의 성공도 예측과 평가요소 분석)

  • Jang Woon-Jae;Keum Jong-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.327-332
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    • 2005
  • This paper aims to analysis for evaluation factor and success prediction of port innovative cluster. This paper is divided three factors such ac policy, source and operation. In addition, three factors are divided into the twelve detail factors. the weight of each factor is calculated by Kohonen Network. At the result, this paper places the priority on the source factor.

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The Impact of Right Atrial Size to Predict Success of Direct Current Cardioversion in Patients With Persistent Atrial Fibrillation

  • Christoph Doring;Utz Richter;Stefan Ulbrich;Carsten Wunderlich;Micaela Ebert;Sergio Richter;Axel Linke;Krunoslav Michael Sveric
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • v.53 no.5
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    • pp.331-343
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    • 2023
  • Background and Objectives: The prognostic implication of right atrial (RA) and left atrial (LA) size for an immediate success of direct current cardioversion (DCCV) in atrial fibrillation (AF) remains unclear. This study aimed to compare RA and LA size for the prediction of DCCV success. Methods: Between 2012 and 2018, 734 consecutive outpatients were screened for our prospective registry. Each eligible patient received a medical history, blood analysis, and transthoracic echocardiography with a focus on indexed RA (iRA) area and LA volume (iLAV) prior to DCCV with up to three biphasic shocks (200-300-360 J) or additional administration of amiodarone or flecainide to restore sinus rhythm. Results: We enrolled 589 patients, and DCCV was in 89% (n=523) successful. Mean age was 68 ± 10 years, and 40% (n=234) had New York heart association class >II. A prevalence of the male sex (64%, n=376) and of persistent AF (86%, n=505) was observed. Although DCCV success was associated with female sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-3.65), with absence of coronary heart disease and normal left ventricular function (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.26-4.25), with short AF duration (OR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.05-4.04) in univariable regression, only iRA area remained a stable and independent predictor of DCCV success (OR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.12-0.69; area under the curve 0.71), but not iLAV size (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.56) in multivariable analysis. Conclusions: iRA area is superior to iLAV for the prediction of immediate DCCV success in AF.

Predicting Success of Crowdfunding Campaigns using Multimedia and Linguistic Features (멀티미디어 및 언어적 특성을 활용한 크라우드펀딩 캠페인의 성공 여부 예측)

  • Lee, Kang-hee;Lee, Seung-hun;Kim, Hyun-chul
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.281-288
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    • 2018
  • Crowdfunding has seen an enormous rise, becoming a new alternative funding source for emerging startup companies in recent years. Despite the huge success of crowdfunding, it has been reported that only around 40% of crowdfunding campaigns successfully raise the desired goal amount. The purpose of this study is to investigate key factors influencing successful fundraising on crowdfunding platforms. To this end, we mainly focus on contents of project campaigns, particularly their linguistic cues as well as multiple features extracted from project information and multimedia contents. We reveal which of these features are useful for predicting success of crowdfunding campaigns, and then build a predictive model based on those selected features. Our experimental results demonstrate that the built model predicts the success or failure of a crowdfunding campaign with 86.15% accuracy.