• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of Storage Period

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Study on the Thermal Storage Characteristics of a Multi-capsule type LTES System -Analysis for Heat Charging and Discharging Process for Water Flow- (다관형 잠열축열장치의 축열특성연구 -물을 매체로 한 축열 및 방열과정 분석-)

  • Kim, Y.B.
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 1994
  • This study was designed to seek information on the heat charging and discharging characteristics of a multi-capsule type LTES(Latent Heat of Fusion Thermal Energy Storage) system, and especially prediction equation of outlet water temperature from the system. During heat charging process, the water temperature in the LTES tank increased very slowly in comparison with a predicted one and was kept near the melting point of the PCM for about 25 minutes. During heat discharging process, the latent heat discharging period of the outlet water temperature became longer as the inlet water temperature became higher and/or mass flow rate became lower. The dimensionless temperature of the outlet water was predicted by linking three equations of ${\theta}=1.1Exp(-{\tau}/0.82)$, ${\theta}=-0.06{\tau}+0.3$, ${\theta}=0.8Exp(-{\tau}/1.4)$ ($r^2{\leq}0.88$) depending on discharging period regardless of mass flow rates on the case of the inlet water temperature at $21.5^{\circ}C$.

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A Study on Warranty and Quality Assurance Model for Guided Missiles Based on Storage Reliability (저장신뢰도 기반의 유도탄 품질보증모델에 대한 연구)

  • Jung, Sanghoon;Lee, Sangbok
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop a quality assurance model and to determine appropriate warranty period for a guided missile using its field data. Methods: 10 years of actual firing data is collected from the defense industry company and military. Parametric maximum likelihood estimation for a reliability function is determined with the data. Results: The reliability function estimates average lifetime of the missile. That function shows a user requirement, 80% reliability (lifetime) is come up when 8 years have passed, which is longer than the estimates in the missile's development phase. Conclusion: Quality assurance warranty for a guided missile must be established with actual test data. It is necessary to update and modify the reliability prediction and the warranty period with actual field test data.

A Study of Factors Influencing the Range of 81mm HE shells One-Shot systems based on CART Regression analysis (CART 회귀분석 기반 일회성 시스템 81mm 고폭탄 사거리에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Myung Sung Kim;Jun Hyeok Choi;Young Min Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2023
  • For one-shot systems such as 81mm high-explosive ammunition, research on performance prediction is insignificant due to research manpower infrastructure and lack of interest and difficulties in securing field data, which can only be done by special task workers. In order to evaluate the actual range of ammunition, the storage ammunition reliability evaluation checks the range by firing actual ammunition through a functional test. Test evaluation is a method of extracting a sample from the population, launching it, and recording the results accordingly. As a result of these tests, the range, which is an indicator of ammunition performance, can be measured differently according to meteorological factors such as temperature, atmospheric pressure, and humidity according to the location of the test site. In this study, various environmental factors generated at the test site and storage period analyze the correlation with the range, which is the performance of ammunition, and analyze the priority of importance for each factor and the numerical standards that environmental factors affect range. Through this, a new approach to one-shot system performance prediction was presented.

Prediction of Shelf-life for 81mm Mortar High Explosive Ammunition Using Multiple Regression Model (다중 회귀 모델을 활용한 81mm 박격포 고폭탄 저장수명 예측)

  • Young-Jin Jung;Ji-Soo Hong;Kang-Young Lee;Sung-Woo Kang
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to develop a regression model using data from the Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program (ASRP) to predict the shelf life of 81mm mortar high-explosive shells. Ammunition is a single-use item that is discarded after use, and its quality is managed through sampling inspections. In particular, shelf life is closely related to the performance of the propellant. This research seeks to predict the shelf life of ammunition using a regression model. The experiment was conducted using 107 ASRP data points. The dependent variable was 'Storage Period', while the independent variables were 'Mean Ammunition Velocity,' 'Standard Deviation of Mean Ammunition Velocity,' and 'Stabilizer'. The explanatory power of the regression model was an R-squared value of 0.662. The results indicated that it takes approximately 55 years for the storage grade to change from A to C and about 62 years to change from C to D. The proposed model enhances the reliability of ammunition management, prevents unnecessary disposal, and contributes to the efficient use of defense resources. However, the model's explanatory power is somewhat limited due to the small dataset. Future research is expected to improve the model with additional data collection. Expanding the research to other types of ammunition may further aid in improving the military's ammunition management system.

Service Life Prediction of Rubber Bushing for Tracked Vehicles

  • Woo, Chang-Su;Kang, In-Sug;Lee, Kang-Suk
    • Elastomers and Composites
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.81-87
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    • 2020
  • Service life prediction and evaluation of rubber components is the foundational technology necessary for securing the safety and reliability of the product and to ensure an optimum design. Even though the domestic industry has recognized the importance thereof, technology for a systematic design and analysis of the same has not yet been established. In order to develop this technology, identifying the fatigue damage parameters that affect service life is imperative. Most anti-vibration rubber components had been damaged by repeated load and aging. Hence, the evaluation of the fatigue characteristics is indispensable. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a method that can predict the service life of rubber components relatively accurately in a short period of time. This method works even in the initial designing stage. We followed the service life prediction procedure of the proposed rubber components. The weak part of the rubber and the maximum strain were analyzed using finite element analysis of the rubber bushing for the tracked vehicles. In order to predict the service life of the rubber components that were in storage for a certain period of time, the fatigue test was performed on the three-dimensional dumbbell specimen, based on the results obtained by the rubber material acceleration test. The service life formula of the rubber bushing for tracked vehicles was derived using both finite element analysis and the fatigue test. The service life of the rubber bushing for tracked vehicles was estimated to be about 1.7 million cycles at room temperature (initial stage) and about 400,000 cycles when kept in storage for 3 years. Through this paper, the service life for various rubber parts is expected be predicted and evaluated. This will contribute to improving the durability and reliability of rubber components.

Evaluation of Beef Freshness Using Visible-near Infrared Reflectance Spectra (가시광선-근적외선 반사스펙트럼을 이용한 쇠고기의 신선도 평가)

  • Choi, Chang-Hyun;Kim, Jong-Hun;Kim, Yong-Joo
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study was to develop models to predict freshness factors (total viable counts (TVC), pH, volatile basic nitrogen (VBN), trimethylamine (TMA), and thiobarbituric acid (TBA) values) and the storage period in beef using a visible and near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic technique. A total of 216 beef spectra were collected during the storage period from 0 to 14 d at a $10^{\circ}C$ storage. A spectrophotometer was used to measure reflectance spectra from beef samples, and beef freshness spectra were divided into a calibration set and a validation set. Multi-linear regression (MLR) models using the stepwise method were developed to predict the factors. The MLR results showed that beef freshness had a good correlation between the predicted and measured factors using the selected wavelength. The correlation of determination ($r^2$), standard error of prediction (SEP), and ratio of standard deviation to SEP (RPD) of the prediction set for TVC was 0.74, 0.64, and 2.75 Log CFU/$cm^2$, respectively. The $r^2$, SEP, and RPD values for pH were 0.43, 0.10, and 1.10; those for VBN were 0.73, 1.45, and 2.00 mg%; those for TMA were 0.70, 0.19, and 2.58 mg%; those for TBA values were 0.73, 0.13, and 2.77 mg MA/kg; and those for storage period were 0.77, 1.94, and 2.53 d, respectively. The results indicate that visible and NIR spectroscopy can predict beef freshness during storage.

Prediction of Shelf-life of Sea Tangle Drink (다시마음료의 유통기한 설정)

  • Park, Jae-Hee;An, Duck Soon;Lee, Dong Sun;Park, Eunju
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.784-790
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    • 2014
  • This study was designed to establish the shelf-life of sea tangle drink. Quality changes, including pH, total acidity, color, sensory evaluation, total aerobic bacteria, and coliform, were measured periodically in sea tangle drink kept at 15, 25, and $37^{\circ}C$ for 8 months. The pH level and total acidity did not remarkably change during the storage period regardless of storage temperature. In terms of color, lightness did not change during the storage period, whereas redness decreased. Yellowness did not change at $15^{\circ}C$ during the storage period, although it increased at 25 and $37^{\circ}C$ at 8 months. Color difference (${\Delta}E$) value was the lowest at $15^{\circ}C$ (12.14), followed by $25^{\circ}C$ (12.57) and $37^{\circ}C$ (14.43). During the storage period, total aerobic bacteria and coliform were not detected. There were no changes in appearance, smell, taste, texture, and overall acceptability of sea tangle drink (not exceeding 3 points) throughout the entire storage period. By using correlation coefficients, color value was selected as an indicating parameter for the shelf-life establishment of sea tangle drink. Based on the forecasted distribution day by annual temperature, the shelf-life of sea tangle drink based on color with the highest correlation coefficient was predicted as 27.10 months.

Quality of Milk and Psychrotophic Bacteria (우유의 품질과 저온성균)

  • Chung, Chung-Il
    • Journal of Dairy Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.38-46
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    • 2000
  • Since generalization of cold storage of raw and processed milk, psychrotrophic bacteria has become more important. The number present in raw milk is related to sanitary conditions during pro-duction and to length and temperature of storage before pasteurization. Growth of psychrotrophs In raw milk often reduces the quality of pasteurized products. Recently, some pathogenic bacteria like Listeria monocytogenes, Yersinia enterocolitica, Bacillus cereus are reported to grow at low temperature and cause food poisoning. The presence of gram positive psychrotrophic bacteria which can survive pasteurization can limit the shelf life of pasteurized milk during extended storage and the survival of heat stable proteases and lipases produced by gram negative psychrotrophic bacteria often brings about proteolytic damage to milk protein in the products. Therefore, in order to prevent the deteorioration of milk and milk products by the growth of psychrotrophs, it is necessary to cool down the temperature of raw milk as soon as possible after milking and to keep the temperature below 5t during storage at farm. As psychrotrophic bacteria become readily predominant in raw milk under refregeration, it can be considered to change the traditional incubating temperature for SPC from 30${\sim}$32$^{\circ}C$ to 25${\sim}$27$^{\circ}C$ at which the psychrotrophs prefer to grow. The psychrotrophic bacterial count(PBC) is of limited use in dairy industry, because of the 10 days incubation period. Although estimates of psychrotrophic bacteria may provide an acceptable shelf-life prediction, there is no single, generally acceptable rapid method for replacing the PBC at the moment. Consequently, faster method for esmating psychrotrophic bacteria has to be developed.

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Prediction of sediment flow to Pleikrong reservoir due to the impact of climate change

  • Xuan Khanh Do;ThuNgaLe;ThuHienNguyen
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.38-38
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    • 2023
  • Pleikrong reservoir with a concrete gravity dam that impound more than 1 billion cubic meter storage volume is one of the largest reservoir in Central Highland of Vietnam. Sedimentation is a major problem in this area and it becomes more severe due to the effect of climate change. Over time, it gradually reduces the reservoir storage capacity affecting to the reliability of water and power supply. This study aims to integrate the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model with 14 bias-corrected GCM/RCM models under two emissions scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 to estimate sediment inflow to Pleikrong reservoir in the long term period. The result indicated that the simulated total amount of sediment deposited in the reservoir from 2010 to 2018 was approximately 39 mil m3 which is a 17% underestimate compared with the observed value of 47 mil m3. The results also show the reduction in reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation ranges from 25% to 62% by 2050, depending on the different climate change models. The reservoir reduced storage volume's rate in considering the impact of climate change is much faster than in the case of no climate change. The outcomes of this study will be helpful for a sustainable and climate-resilient plan of sediment management for the Pleikrongreservoir.

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Performance Prediction of a Hot Water Supply and Panel Heating System with Solar Energy (태양열 온수 및 난방 일체형 복합시스템의 성능예측)

  • Han, Yuri;Park, Youn Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2012
  • In this study, a simulation program was developed with heat transfer model in the thermal storage tank for a solar collector and burner combined heating and hot water supply system. Analysis was conducted with variation of operating condition and schedule to analyze performance of a hot water supply and panel heating system with a solar collector and burner combined thermal storage tank. The simulation program is divided two sections. One part is calculation of temperature variation of water which flows through the panel in the floor for heating of the residential house during 24 hours, and the other part is heat transfer calculation for the reaction time to get desired water temperature in the thermal storage tank. As results, light oil consumption and system performance during operation period were analyzed with variation of climate condition and with or without solar collector. Most of the case, oil could be saved about from 24 to 41% with installing the solar collector. The performance of the system is more dependent on radiation time of the solar collector rather than the intensity of the solar radiation which was adopted for the climate analysis.