• 제목/요약/키워드: Prediction of Damage

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태풍타입별 피해 분석 및 다중회귀분석을 활용한 태풍피해예측모델 개발 연구 (Typhoon Path and Prediction Model Development for Building Damage Ratio Using Multiple Regression Analysis)

  • 양성필;손기영;이경훈;김지명
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제16권5호
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    • pp.437-445
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    • 2016
  • 태풍은 인류에 큰 피해를 주는 재난재해로 몇몇 선진국에서는 태풍으로 인한 건축물 피해액 사전예측 모델에 관한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 국내에서도 해외 연구를 토대로 국내에 적용시키는 연구가 진행되었지만, 태풍의 특성이나 크기 등이 차이가 나므로 국내에 적합한 모델이 필요한 실정이다. 또한, 국내의 연구는 태풍의 특성, 지역적 특성만을 고려하여 진행 하였으나, 태풍은 복합재해로서 태풍의 특성, 지리적 특성만이 아닌 태풍의 진로, 건설환경, 등 다양한 요인을 고려하여야한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 국내에 영향을 미친 태풍을 7가지 타입으로 분류하여 건물피해액 영향인자를 도출하고, 회귀분석을 실시하여 태풍 타입별 건물피해율 예측모델을 개발 목적으로 한다. 이는 선진국의 자연재해 예측모델들과 같이 국내의 상황에 맞는 태풍에 따른 피해를 예측하기 위한 모델 개발을 위한 자료로 활용 될 것이다.

보강재 본딩접합 복합재 적층판구조 피로손상 균열진전 수명예측에 대한 연구 (A Study on Prediction of Fatigue Damage Crack Growth for Stiffener Bonded Composite Laminate Panel)

  • 권정호;정성문
    • Composites Research
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.79-84
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구에서는 적층판 시편의 피로손상 균열진전 시험결과와 적층보강판 구조의 응력강도 해석결과를 기초로 충격손상을 모사한 원공과 노치손상을 내재한 보강재 본딩접합 적층보강판 구조의 피로손상 균열진전 수명예측에 대하여 고찰하였다. 그리고 적층보강판 구조시편에 대한 손상허용 시험결과와 손상진전 수명예측 해석결과를 비교분석한 결과 손상균열 길이 변화에 따라 최종파단에 대한 잔여강도를 예측하고 손상허용성 평가를 할 수 있었다.

Correlation Analysis between Building Damage Cost and Major Factors Affected by Typhoon

  • Yang, Sungpil;Yu, Yeongjin;Kim, Sangho;Son, Kiyoung
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.702-703
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    • 2015
  • Currently, according to the climate change, serious damage by Typhoon has been occurred in the world. In this respect, the research on the damage prediction model to minimize the damage from various natural disaster has been conducted in several developed countries. In the case of U.S, various damage prediction models of buildings from natural disasters have been used widely in many organizations such as insurance companies and governments. In South Korea, although studies regarding damage prediction model of hurricane have been conducted, the scope has been only limited to consider the property of hurricane. However, it is necessary to consider various factors such as socio-economic, physical, geographical, and built environmental factors to predict the damages. Therefore, to address this issue, correlation analysis is conducted between various variables based on the data of hurricane from 2003 to 2012. The findings of this study can be utilized to develop for predicting the damage of hurricane on buildings.

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용접구조물의 피로수명예측을 위한 수치해석모델 (Numerical Analysis Model for Fatigue Life Prediction of Welded Structures)

  • 이치승;이제명
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.49-54
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    • 2009
  • In this study, the numerical analysis model for fatigue life prediction of welded structures are presented. In order to evaluate the structural degradation of welded structures due to fatigue loading, continuum damage mechanics approach is applied. Damage evolution equation of welded structures under arbitrary fatigue loading is constructed as a unified plasticity-damage theory. Moreover, by integration of damage evolution equation regarding to stress amplitude and number of cycles, the simplified fatigue life prediction model is derived. The proposed model is compared with fatigue test results of T-joint welded structures to obtain its validation and usefulness. It is confirmed that the predicted fatigue life of T-joint welded structures are coincided well with the fatigue test results.

PREDICTION OF TOKAI EARTHQUAKE DISASTER DAMAGE IN HAMAMATSU CITY AND THE COMPARISON TO THE PREDICTION REPORT OF SHIZUOKA PREFECTURE GOVERNMENT USING GIS

  • Iwasaki, Kazutaka;Komiyaka, Tsukasa
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 2007년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2007
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    • pp.321-324
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    • 2007
  • It is commonly believed that a gigantic earthquake (Tokai Earthquake) could occur in Shizuoka Prefecture in the near future. The Shizuoka Prefecture Government made the prediction report of Tokai Earthquake disaster damage. But this report does not pay attention to the ground conditions. The authors make a prediction map using GIS of Tokai Earthquake disaster damage in Asada-cho and Hirosawa Ni-chome in the central Hamamatsu City and revealed the location of dangerous houses and dangerous points in road networks in each town. These information could be useful when people try to find escape routes in an earthquake.

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Empirical seismic vulnerability probability prediction model of RC structures considering historical field observation

  • Si-Qi Li;Hong-Bo Liu;Ke Du;Jia-Cheng Han;Yi-Ru Li;Li-Hui Yin
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제86권4호
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    • pp.547-571
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    • 2023
  • To deeply probe the actual earthquake level and fragility of typical reinforced concrete (RC) structures under multiple intensity grades, considering diachronic measurement building stock samples and actual observations of representative catastrophic earth shocks in China from 1990 to 2010, RC structures were divided into traditional RC structures (TRCs) and bottom reinforced concrete frame seismic wall masonry (BFM) structures, and the empirical damage characteristics and mechanisms were analysed. A great deal of statistics and induction were developed on the historical experience investigation data of 59 typical catastrophic earthquakes in 9 provinces of China. The database and fragility matrix prediction model were established with TRCs of 4,122.5284×104 m2 and 5,844 buildings and BFMs of 5,872 buildings as empirical seismic damage samples. By employing the methods of structural damage probability and statistics, nonlinear prediction of seismic vulnerability, and numerical and applied functional analysis, the comparison matrix of actual fragility probability prediction of TRC and BFM in multiple intensity regions under the latest version of China's macrointensity standard was established. A novel nonlinear regression prediction model of seismic vulnerability was proposed, and prediction models considering the seismic damage ratio and transcendental probability parameters were constructed. The time-varying vulnerability comparative model of the sample database was developed according to the different periods of multiple earthquakes. The new calculation method of the average fragility prediction index (AFPI) matrix parameter model has been proposed to predict the seismic fragility of an areal RC structure.

Assessment of seismic damage inspection and empirical vulnerability probability matrices for masonry structure

  • Li, Si-Qi;Chen, Yong-Sheng;Liu, Hong-Bo;Du, Ke;Chi, Bo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.387-399
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    • 2022
  • To study the seismic damage of masonry structures and understand the characteristics of the multi-intensity region, according to the Dujiang weir urbanization of China Wenchuan earthquake, the deterioration of 3991 masonry structures was summarized and statistically analysed. First, the seismic damage of multistory masonry structures in this area was investigated. The primary seismic damage of components was as follows: Damage of walls, openings, joints of longitudinal and transverse walls, windows (lower) walls, and tie columns. Many masonry structures with seismic designs were basically intact. Second, according to the main factors of construction, seismic intensity code levels survey, and influence on the seismic capacity, a vulnerability matrix calculation model was proposed to establish a vulnerability prediction matrix, and a comparative analysis was made based on the empirical seismic damage investigation matrix. The vulnerability prediction matrix was established using the proposed vulnerability matrix calculation model. The fitting relationship between the vulnerability prediction matrix and the actual seismic damage investigation matrix was compared and analysed. The relationship curves of the mean damage index for macrointensity and ground motion parameters were drawn through calculation and analysis, respectively. The numerical analysis was performed based on actual ground motion observation records, and fitting models of PGA, PGV, and MSDI were proposed.

진동모드특성치를 이용한 철근콘크리트 구조물의 손상예측 (Damage Prediction in Reinforced Concrete Structures using Modal Response Parameters)

  • 김정태
    • 콘크리트학회지
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    • 제6권6호
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    • pp.180-189
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    • 1994
  • 철근콘크리트 구조물의 손상을 진동반응특성치의 변화를 측정한 자료로부터 예측할 수 있는 실용적인 방법론이 제시되었다. 먼저, 구조물에 발생한 손상의 위치를 구조물 모드형상의 변화로부터 결정할 수 있는 알고리즘이 요약되었다. 다음으로, 실물크기 1/3 촉소 건조된 철근콘크리트 구조물을 사용한 실험에서 알고리즘을 이용하여 손상의 위치를 예측하였다. 이 실험과정에는 손상발생 전$\cdot$후의 소수의 진동반응특성치가 사용되었다. 구조물의 손상을 예측한 결과로부터 알고리즘이 손상을 정확하게 발견하는 것으로 판명되었다.

풍력과 지진하중을 고려한 압력용기의 피로해석 (Fatigue analysis of pressure vessel in view of wind and seismic loads)

  • 박진용;황운봉;박상철;박동환
    • 대한기계학회논문집
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.596-603
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    • 1991
  • Fatigue life prediction of pressure vessel is studied analytically using cumulative damage models and linear elastic fracture mechanics method. The stresses are analyzed by finite element method. During operation, the maximum stress occurs at the outside of neck region while fatigue analysis indicates that the bottom of nozzle part has the shortest fatigue life. Previously proposed fatigue life prediction equation and cumulative damage model are modified successfully by introducing reference fatigue modulus. It is found that the modified life prediction equation and damage model are useful for lower stress level application.

재료손상과 입계 미끄럼을 고려한 증기배관의 크리프 파단수명 및 변형률 예측 (Prediction of Creep Rupture Time and Strain of Steam Pipe Accounting for Material Damage and Grain Boundary Sliding)

  • 홍성호
    • 대한기계학회논문집
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.1182-1189
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    • 1995
  • Several methods have been developed to predict the creep rupture time of the steam pipes in thermal power plant. However, existing creep life prediction methods give very conservative value at operating stress of power plant and creep rupture strain cannot be well estimated. Therefore, in this study, creep rupture time and strain prediction method accounting for material damage and grain boundary sliding is newly proposed and compared with the existing experimental data. The creep damage evolves by continuous cavity nucleation and constrained cavity growth. The results showed good correlation between the theoretically predicted creep rupture time and the experimental data. And creep rupture strain may be well estimated by using the proposed method.