• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction of Damage

Search Result 1,066, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

Typhoon Path and Prediction Model Development for Building Damage Ratio Using Multiple Regression Analysis (태풍타입별 피해 분석 및 다중회귀분석을 활용한 태풍피해예측모델 개발 연구)

  • Yang, Seong-Pil;Son, Kiyoung;Lee, Kyoung-Hun;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
    • /
    • v.16 no.5
    • /
    • pp.437-445
    • /
    • 2016
  • Since typhoon is a critical meteorological disaster, some advanced countries have developed typhoon damage prediction models. However, although South Korea is vulnerable to typhoons, there is still shortage of study in typhoon damage prediction model reflecting the vulnerability of domestic building and features of disaster. Moreover, many studies have been only focused on the characteristics and typhoon and regional characteristics without various influencing factors. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze typhoon damage by path and develop to prediction model for building damage ratio by using multiple regression analysis. This study classifies the building damages by typhoon paths to identify influencing factors then the correlation analysis is conducted between building damage ratio and their factors. In addition, a multiple regression analysis is applied to develop a typhoon damage prediction model. Four categories; typhoon information, geography, construction environment, and socio-economy, are used as the independent variables. The results of this study will be used as fundamental material for the typhoon damage prediction model development of South Korea.

A Study on Prediction of Fatigue Damage Crack Growth for Stiffener Bonded Composite Laminate Panel (보강재 본딩접합 복합재 적층판구조 피로손상 균열진전 수명예측에 대한 연구)

  • Kwon, Jung-Ho;Jeong, Seong-Moon
    • Composites Research
    • /
    • v.26 no.2
    • /
    • pp.79-84
    • /
    • 2013
  • The prediction and analysis procedure of fatigue damage crack growth life for a stiffener bonded composite laminate panel including center hole and edge notch damage, was studied. It was performed on the basis of fatigue damage growth test results on a laminated skin panel specimens and the analysis results of stress intensity factor for the stiffener bonded composite panel. According to the comparison between experimental test and prediction results of fatigue damage growth life, it was concluded that the residual strength and damage tolerance assessment can be carried out along to the edge notch crack growth.

Correlation Analysis between Building Damage Cost and Major Factors Affected by Typhoon

  • Yang, Sungpil;Yu, Yeongjin;Kim, Sangho;Son, Kiyoung
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
    • /
    • 2015.10a
    • /
    • pp.702-703
    • /
    • 2015
  • Currently, according to the climate change, serious damage by Typhoon has been occurred in the world. In this respect, the research on the damage prediction model to minimize the damage from various natural disaster has been conducted in several developed countries. In the case of U.S, various damage prediction models of buildings from natural disasters have been used widely in many organizations such as insurance companies and governments. In South Korea, although studies regarding damage prediction model of hurricane have been conducted, the scope has been only limited to consider the property of hurricane. However, it is necessary to consider various factors such as socio-economic, physical, geographical, and built environmental factors to predict the damages. Therefore, to address this issue, correlation analysis is conducted between various variables based on the data of hurricane from 2003 to 2012. The findings of this study can be utilized to develop for predicting the damage of hurricane on buildings.

  • PDF

Numerical Analysis Model for Fatigue Life Prediction of Welded Structures (용접구조물의 피로수명예측을 위한 수치해석모델)

  • Lee, Chi-Seung;Lee, Jae-Myung
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.49-54
    • /
    • 2009
  • In this study, the numerical analysis model for fatigue life prediction of welded structures are presented. In order to evaluate the structural degradation of welded structures due to fatigue loading, continuum damage mechanics approach is applied. Damage evolution equation of welded structures under arbitrary fatigue loading is constructed as a unified plasticity-damage theory. Moreover, by integration of damage evolution equation regarding to stress amplitude and number of cycles, the simplified fatigue life prediction model is derived. The proposed model is compared with fatigue test results of T-joint welded structures to obtain its validation and usefulness. It is confirmed that the predicted fatigue life of T-joint welded structures are coincided well with the fatigue test results.

PREDICTION OF TOKAI EARTHQUAKE DISASTER DAMAGE IN HAMAMATSU CITY AND THE COMPARISON TO THE PREDICTION REPORT OF SHIZUOKA PREFECTURE GOVERNMENT USING GIS

  • Iwasaki, Kazutaka;Komiyaka, Tsukasa
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
    • /
    • 2007.10a
    • /
    • pp.321-324
    • /
    • 2007
  • It is commonly believed that a gigantic earthquake (Tokai Earthquake) could occur in Shizuoka Prefecture in the near future. The Shizuoka Prefecture Government made the prediction report of Tokai Earthquake disaster damage. But this report does not pay attention to the ground conditions. The authors make a prediction map using GIS of Tokai Earthquake disaster damage in Asada-cho and Hirosawa Ni-chome in the central Hamamatsu City and revealed the location of dangerous houses and dangerous points in road networks in each town. These information could be useful when people try to find escape routes in an earthquake.

  • PDF

Empirical seismic vulnerability probability prediction model of RC structures considering historical field observation

  • Si-Qi Li;Hong-Bo Liu;Ke Du;Jia-Cheng Han;Yi-Ru Li;Li-Hui Yin
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.86 no.4
    • /
    • pp.547-571
    • /
    • 2023
  • To deeply probe the actual earthquake level and fragility of typical reinforced concrete (RC) structures under multiple intensity grades, considering diachronic measurement building stock samples and actual observations of representative catastrophic earth shocks in China from 1990 to 2010, RC structures were divided into traditional RC structures (TRCs) and bottom reinforced concrete frame seismic wall masonry (BFM) structures, and the empirical damage characteristics and mechanisms were analysed. A great deal of statistics and induction were developed on the historical experience investigation data of 59 typical catastrophic earthquakes in 9 provinces of China. The database and fragility matrix prediction model were established with TRCs of 4,122.5284×104 m2 and 5,844 buildings and BFMs of 5,872 buildings as empirical seismic damage samples. By employing the methods of structural damage probability and statistics, nonlinear prediction of seismic vulnerability, and numerical and applied functional analysis, the comparison matrix of actual fragility probability prediction of TRC and BFM in multiple intensity regions under the latest version of China's macrointensity standard was established. A novel nonlinear regression prediction model of seismic vulnerability was proposed, and prediction models considering the seismic damage ratio and transcendental probability parameters were constructed. The time-varying vulnerability comparative model of the sample database was developed according to the different periods of multiple earthquakes. The new calculation method of the average fragility prediction index (AFPI) matrix parameter model has been proposed to predict the seismic fragility of an areal RC structure.

Assessment of seismic damage inspection and empirical vulnerability probability matrices for masonry structure

  • Li, Si-Qi;Chen, Yong-Sheng;Liu, Hong-Bo;Du, Ke;Chi, Bo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.387-399
    • /
    • 2022
  • To study the seismic damage of masonry structures and understand the characteristics of the multi-intensity region, according to the Dujiang weir urbanization of China Wenchuan earthquake, the deterioration of 3991 masonry structures was summarized and statistically analysed. First, the seismic damage of multistory masonry structures in this area was investigated. The primary seismic damage of components was as follows: Damage of walls, openings, joints of longitudinal and transverse walls, windows (lower) walls, and tie columns. Many masonry structures with seismic designs were basically intact. Second, according to the main factors of construction, seismic intensity code levels survey, and influence on the seismic capacity, a vulnerability matrix calculation model was proposed to establish a vulnerability prediction matrix, and a comparative analysis was made based on the empirical seismic damage investigation matrix. The vulnerability prediction matrix was established using the proposed vulnerability matrix calculation model. The fitting relationship between the vulnerability prediction matrix and the actual seismic damage investigation matrix was compared and analysed. The relationship curves of the mean damage index for macrointensity and ground motion parameters were drawn through calculation and analysis, respectively. The numerical analysis was performed based on actual ground motion observation records, and fitting models of PGA, PGV, and MSDI were proposed.

Damage Prediction in Reinforced Concrete Structures using Modal Response Parameters (진동모드특성치를 이용한 철근콘크리트 구조물의 손상예측)

  • 김정태
    • Magazine of the Korea Concrete Institute
    • /
    • v.6 no.6
    • /
    • pp.180-189
    • /
    • 1994
  • A practical methodology to detect and localm da~nagc in rcinforced concrete structures by utilizing modal response parameters of as built and tiamaged states is presented. First, a damage detection algorithm which yields information on the, location of damage directly from changes in mode shapes of structures is outlined. Next, the algorithm is implemented to detec and localize damage in a real, 1 1/3 scale, reinforced concrete structure. A set of pre-damage and post damage modal parameters are used for I he damage detection exercise. The results of the damage prediction show that the proposed algorithm can correctly locate the damage inflicted in the test structure.

Fatigue analysis of pressure vessel in view of wind and seismic loads (풍력과 지진하중을 고려한 압력용기의 피로해석)

  • 박진용;황운봉;박상철;박동환
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
    • /
    • v.15 no.2
    • /
    • pp.596-603
    • /
    • 1991
  • Fatigue life prediction of pressure vessel is studied analytically using cumulative damage models and linear elastic fracture mechanics method. The stresses are analyzed by finite element method. During operation, the maximum stress occurs at the outside of neck region while fatigue analysis indicates that the bottom of nozzle part has the shortest fatigue life. Previously proposed fatigue life prediction equation and cumulative damage model are modified successfully by introducing reference fatigue modulus. It is found that the modified life prediction equation and damage model are useful for lower stress level application.

Prediction of Creep Rupture Time and Strain of Steam Pipe Accounting for Material Damage and Grain Boundary Sliding (재료손상과 입계 미끄럼을 고려한 증기배관의 크리프 파단수명 및 변형률 예측)

  • 홍성호
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
    • /
    • v.19 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1182-1189
    • /
    • 1995
  • Several methods have been developed to predict the creep rupture time of the steam pipes in thermal power plant. However, existing creep life prediction methods give very conservative value at operating stress of power plant and creep rupture strain cannot be well estimated. Therefore, in this study, creep rupture time and strain prediction method accounting for material damage and grain boundary sliding is newly proposed and compared with the existing experimental data. The creep damage evolves by continuous cavity nucleation and constrained cavity growth. The results showed good correlation between the theoretically predicted creep rupture time and the experimental data. And creep rupture strain may be well estimated by using the proposed method.