• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction models

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Numerical study on the thermal-hydraulic safety of the fuel assembly in the Mast assembly (수치해석을 이용한 마스트집합체 내 핵연료 집합체의 열수력적 안전성 연구)

  • Kim, YoungSoo;Yun, ByongJo;Kim, HuiYung;Jeon, JaeYeong
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.149-163
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we conducted study on the confirmation of thermal-hydraulic safety for Mast assembly with Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) analysis. Before performing the natural convection analysis for the Mast assembly by using CFD code, we validated the CFD code against two benchmark natural convection data for the evaluation of turbulence models and confirmation of its applicability to the natural convection flow. From the first benchmark test which was performed by Betts et al. in the simple rectangular channel, we selected standard k-omega turbulence model for natural convection. And then, calculation performance of CFD code was also investigated in the sub-channel of rod bundle by comparing with PNL(Pacific Northwest Laboratory) experimental data and prediction results by MATRA and Fluent 12.0 which were performed by Kwon et al.. Finally, we performed main natural convection analysis for fuel assembly inside the Mast assembly by using validated turbulence model. From the calculation, we observed stable natural circulation flow between the mast assembly and pool side and evaluated the thermal-hydraulic safety by calculating the departure from nucleate boiling ratio.

Comparative molecular similarity indices analyses (CoMSIA) and hologram quantitative structure activity relationship (HQSAR) on the fungicial activity of 2-N-benzyl-5-phenoxy-3-isothiazolone derivatives against phytophthora blight fungus (고추역병균에 대한 2-N-benzyl-5-Phenoxy-3-isothiazolone 유도체의 살균활성에 관한 비교분자 유사성 지수분석(CoMSIA)과 홀로그램 구조-활성 관계(HQSAR))

  • Sung, Nack-Do;Kim, Ki-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.209-217
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    • 2002
  • Two different QSAR methods, the comparative molecular similarity indices analyses (CoMSIA) and hologram quantitative structure activity relationship (HQSAR) are studied for the fungicidal activities ($pI_{50}$) of 2-N-benzyl-5-phenoxy-3-isothiazolone derivatives against sensitive (SPC: 95CC7105) and resisitive (RPC: 95CC7303) phytophthora blight fungus (Phytaphthora capsici). According to the findings from these QSAR investigation, the cross-validation value, $q^2$ and Pearson correlation coefficient, $r^2$ in the two methods were CoMSIA: RPC; $q^2=0.675,\;r^2=0.942$, SPC; $q^2=0.350,\;r^2=0.876$ and HQSAR: RPC; $q^2=0.519,\;r^2=0.869$, SPC; $q^2=0.483,\;r^2=0.990$, respectively. Therefore, the two models of comparative statistical significance were obtained. From the CoMSIA contour maps, the important factors for selective fungicidal activity against RPC are to be expected that the lower hydrophobic and not bulkiness substituent as hydrogen bonding acceptor have to introduce to meta and para-position (C1-C6) on the phenoxy moiety. And the results of prediction suggest that HQSAR method showed higher fungicidal activity than CoMSIA method.

Estimation of Heading Date for Rice Cultivars Using ORYZA (v3) (ORYZA (v3) 모델을 사용한 벼 품종별 출수기 예측)

  • Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.246-251
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    • 2017
  • Crop models have been used to predict a heading date for efficient management of fertilizer application. Recently, the ORYZA (v3) model was developed to improve the ORYZA2000 model, which has been used for simulation of rice growth in Korea. Still, little effort has been made to assess applicability of the ORYZA (v3) model to rice farms in Korea. The objective of this study was to evaluate reliability of heading dates predicted using the the ORYZA (v3) model, which would indicate applicability of the model to a decision support system for fertilizer application. Field experiments were conducted from 2015-2016 at the Rural Development Administration (RDA) to obtain rice phenology data. Shindongjin cultivar which is mid-late maturity type was grown under a conventional fertilizer management, e.g., application of fertilizer at the rate of 11 Kg N/10a. Another set of heading dates was obtained from annual reports at experiment farms operated by the National Institute of Crop Science and Agricultural Technology Centers in each province. The input files for the ORYZA (v3) model were prepared using weather and soil data collected from the Korean Meteorology Administration (KMA) and the Korean Soil Information System, respectively. Input parameters for crop management, e.g., transplanting date and planting density, were set to represent management used for the field experiment. The ORYZA (v3) model predicted heading date within 1 day for two seasons. The crop model also had a relatively small error in prediction of heading date for three ecotypes of rice cultivars at experiment farms where weather input data were obtained from a near-by weather station. Those results suggested that the ORYZA (v3) model would be useful for development of a decision support system for fertilizer application when reliable input data for weather variables become available.

Prediction Model of Endurance Time to Isotonic Contraction Exercise for Biceps Brachii using Multiple Regression Analysis with Personal Factors and Anthropometric Data (신체측정치수를 적용하여 다중회귀 분석을 통한 위팔두갈래근 등장성 운동의 근지구력시간 예측모델 연구)

  • Jeong, Ju-Young;Lee, Sang-Sik
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.178-186
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    • 2015
  • Endurance time is very important indicator to estimate muscle fatigue. In the case of measuring endurance time directly, it is dangerous for subject to perform a test until the point of failure to main time force. Therefore, this paper presents the model to estimate endirance time using indirect measurements such as personal factors and anthropometrical data. Previous studies had shown that personal factors such as gender and age were not related to endurance time, but recently studies have shown that it is estimated by using independent variable or predictor such as GTA (Gravitational Torque of the horizontal, stretched arm) and MVC (Maximum Voluntary Contraction). The present study investigated variables to estimate endurance time using personal factors and anthrometrical data during isotonic contractions. Twenty five healthy subject volunteered for this study, and performed three test sessions of isotonic contraction exercises at 10~50% respectively. Afterward the correlation coefficient and p-values were compared among regression models using personal factors and anthropometrical data. The results demonstrated that multi-regression model had significant coefficient of correlation, and was useful estimate endurance time.

Downscaling of AMSR2 Sea Ice Concentration Using a Weighting Scheme Derived from MODIS Sea Ice Cover Product (MODIS 해빙피복 기반의 가중치체계를 이용한 AMSR2 해빙면적비의 다운스케일링)

  • Ahn, Jihye;Hong, Sungwook;Cho, Jaeil;Lee, Yang-Won
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.687-701
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    • 2014
  • Sea ice is generally accepted as an important factor to understand the process of earth climate changes and is the basis of earth system models for analysis and prediction of the climate changes. To continuously monitor sea ice changes at kilometer scale, it is demanded to create more accurate grid data from the current, limited sea ice data. In this paper we described a downscaling method for Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) from 10 km to 1 km resolution using a weighting scheme of sea ice days ratio derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea ice cover product that has a high correlation with the SIC. In a case study for Okhotsk Sea, the sea ice areas of both data (before and after downscaling) were identical, and the monthly means and standard deviations of SIC exhibited almost the same values. Also, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses showed that three kinds of SIC data (ERA-Interim, original AMSR2, and downscaled AMSR2) had very similar principal components for spatial and temporal variations. Our method can apply to downscaling of other continuous variables in the form of ratio such as percentage and can contribute to monitoring small-scale changes of sea ice by providing finer SIC data.

Prediction of Rice Yield Loss and Economic Threshold Level by Densities of Sagittaria trifolia and Bidens frondosa in Direct-seeding Flooded Rice (벼 담수직파에서 벗풀과 미국가막사리의 발생밀도에 따른 쌀 수량예측 및 경제적 방제밀도 수준 설정)

  • Kim, Sang-Kuk;Kim, Su-Yong;Won, Jong-Gun;Shin, Jong-Hee;Kwon, Oh-Do
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.340-347
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to predict the rice yield loss and to determine the economic threshold levels for direct-seeding flooded rice cultivation from competition to the most serious weeds, Sagittaria trifolia L. and Bidens frondosa L. The rice yield loss models of S. trifolia and B. frondosa were predicted as Y = 497.0/(1+0.003760x), $R^2$=0.869 and Y = 486.0/(1+0.007612x), $R^2$ = 0.887, respectively. In comparison of the competitiveness represented by parameter ${\beta}$, it was 0.003760 in S. trifolia and 0.007612 in B. frondosa, respectively. Economic thresholds calculated using Cousens' equation was negatively related with the competitiveness of weed. The economic thresholds of S. trifolia and B. frondosa were 7.6 and 3.9 plants per $m^2$, respectively.

Comparison of Carbonaceous Sediment Oxygen Demand in Lake Paldang and Lake Chungju (팔당호와 충주호 퇴적물의 탄소성 산소요구량 비교)

  • Shin, Yu-Na;Park, Hae-Kyung;Lee, Sang-Won;Kong, Dong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.439-448
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the seasonal variations of sediment oxygen demand (SOD) in Lake Paldang and Lake Chungju of the Han River system and to suggest SOD values as parameters for the water quality prediction models of two lakes. SOD was measured at laboratory using sediment collected at 2 sites in Lake Paldang from June to November and at 4 sites in Lake Chungju from May to November in 2005, respectively. It was found from the laboratory test that the SOD in Lake Paldang ranged from 337.8 to 881.0 mg $O_2m^{-2}d^{-1}$ and in Lake Chungju ranged from 143.0 to 969.1 mg $O_2m^{-2}d^{-1}$. The SOD of Lake Paldang showed similar variations to the content of organic matter of sediment. The SOD of Lake Chungju was positively correlated with temperature (r=0.78, p<0.01), $PO_4-P(r=0.79,\;p<0.01)$, TP (r=0.55, p<0.05), DTP (r=0.55, p<0.05), $NO_3-N$ (r=(0.72, p<0.01) of hypolimnetic water. These results indicate that the SOD of Lake Paldang was affected by the content and origin of organic matter of sediment and the SOD of Lake Chungju was closely correlated with physical and chemical factors.

A Study on the Tidal Harmonic Analysis, and long-term Sea Level Ocillations at Incheon Bay (인천만의 조석조화해석 및 장기해수면 변동연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.505-513
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    • 2010
  • This study investigate the characteristics of tidal constituents, and long-term mean sea level oscillations at Incheon bay. For this, the conditions of three tide stations around Incheon bay have examined, and carried out harmonic analysis on water level data for periods of about 40 years(1960~2007). Four major tidal constituents($M_2$, $S_2$, $K_1$, $O_1$) of each tide station showed tendency that change over the 18.61year lunar node cycle, and the type of tide at three stations is mainly semi-diurnal tides. And also, the past monthly tidal modulations are especially sensitive to the cumulative year of water level data in accuracy of tidal prediction. In case that regard the detached data at three tide stations as a single time series data of 40 years, the results of analysis on a single time series, long-term mean sea level oscillations and modulations of tidal datum at tide stations appears with a range of about 10cm, respectively. In addition, the predicted tides at the Inchcon harbor by global and regional tide models of OSU(Oregon State University) based on various satellite altimetric(Topex Poseidon, Topex Tandem, ERS, GFO) data are compared with the observed tides by KHOA(the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration). The results show that the high resolution regional model is a quite good agreement at coastal shallow water region.

Development of a Road Hazard Map Considering Meteorological Factors (기상인자를 고려한 도로 위험지도 개발)

  • Kim, Hyung Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2017
  • Recently, weather information is getting closer to our real life, and it is a very important factor especially in the transportation field. Although the damage caused by the abnormal climate changes around the world has been gradually increased and the correlation between the road risk and the possibility of traffic accidents is very high, the domestic research has been performed at the level of basic research. The Purpose of this study is to develop a risk map for the road hazard forecasting service of weather situation by linking real - time weather information and traffic information based on accident analysis data by weather factors. So, we have developed a collection and analysis about related data, processing, applying prediction models in various weather conditions and a method to provide the road hazard map for national highways and provincial roads on a web map. As a result, the road hazard map proposed in this study can be expected to be useful for road managers and users through online and mobile services in the future. In addition, information that can support safe autonomous driving by continuously archiving and providing a risk map database so as to anticipate and preemptively prepare for the risk due to meteorological factors in the autonomous driving vehicle, which is a key factor of the 4th Industrial Revolution, and this map can be expected to be fully utilized.

Influence of Housing Market Changes on Construction Company Insolvency (주택시장 변화가 규모별 건설업체 부실화에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Jang, Ho-Myun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.3260-3269
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    • 2014
  • The construction industry has strong ties with other industries, and so construction company insolvency also has a strong influence on other industries. Prediction models addressing the insolvency of construction company have been well studied. Although factors contributing to insolvency must precede those of predictions of insolvency, studies on these contributing factors are limited. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of changes in the housing market on construction company insolvency by using the Vector Error Correction Model. Construction companies were divided into two groups, and the expected default frequency(EDF), which indicates insolvency of each company was measured through the KMV model. The results verified that 10 largest construction companies were in a better financial condition compared to relatively smaller construction companies. As a result of conducting impulse response analysis, the EDF of large companies was found to be more sensitive to housing market change than that of small- and medium-sized construction companies.