• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction formula

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Comparative Study on the Prediction Method of Bearing Capacity for Single Stone Column (단일 쇄석다짐말뚝의 지지력 예측방법에 대한 비교 연구)

  • Chun, Byung-Sik;Kim, Won-Cheul;Jo, Yang-Woon
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2004
  • Stone column is a soil improvement method and can be applicable for loose sand or weak cohesive soil. Since the lack of sand in korea, stone column seems one of the most adaptable approach for poor ground as a soil improvement technique. However, this method was not studied for practical application. In this paper, the most affective design parameters for the bearing capacity of stone column were studied. The parametric study of major design factors for single stone column was carried out under the bulging and general shear failure condition, respectively. Especially, a test result of single stone column by static load was compared with the bearing capacity values of suggested formulas. The analysis result showed that the ultimate bearing capacity by the formula was much less than the measured value by the static load test. Especially, the result of the parametric study under general shear failure condition showed that the bearing capacity has big difference between each suggested formulas with the variation of the major design parameters. Therefore, the result of this study can be appliable for the future stone column project.

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Sound transmission of multi-layered micro-perforated plates in a cylindrical impedance tube (원통형 임피던스 튜브 내 다중 미세천공 판의 음향투과)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sil;Ma, Pyung-Sik;Kim, Bong-Ki;Lee, Seong-Hyun;Seo, Yun-Ho
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.270-278
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, sound transmission of Micro-Perforated Plates (MPPs) installed in an impedance tube with a circular cross-section is described using an analytic method. Vibration of the plates is expressed in terms of an infinite series of modal functions, where modal function in the radial direction is given by the Bessel function. Under the plane wave assumption, a low frequency approximation is derived, and a formula for the sound transmission coefficient of multi-layered MPPs is presented using the transfer matrix method. The Sound Transmission Losses (STLs) of single and double MPPs are computed using the proposed method and compared with those done by the Finite Element Method (FEM), which shows an excellent agreement. As the perforation increases, the STL is degraded, since the STL becomes dominated by the perforation ratio rather than by vibration of the plate. The STL shows dips at natural frequencies as well as at the mass-spring-mass resonance frequency. The proposed model for the STL prediction in this study can be applied to an arbitrary number of MPPs, where each MPP may or may not have a perforation.

A dryout mechanism model for rectangular narrow channels at high pressure conditions

  • Song, Gongle;Liang, Yu;Sun, Rulei;Zhang, Dalin;Deng, Jian;Su, G.H.;Tian, Wenxi;Qiu, Suizheng
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.10
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    • pp.2196-2203
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    • 2020
  • A dryout mechanism model for rectangular narrow channels at high pressure conditions is developed by assuming that the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability triggered the occurrence of dryout. This model combines the advantages of theoretical analysis and empirical correlation. The unknown coefficients in the theoretical derivation are supported by the experimental data. Meanwhile, the decisive restriction of the experimental conditions on the applicability of the empirical correlation is avoided. The expression of vapor phase velocity at the time of dryout is derived, and the empirical correlation of liquid film thickness is introduced. Since the CHF value obtained from the liquid film thickness should be the same as the value obtained from the Kelvin-Helmholtz critical stability under the same condition, the convergent CHF value is obtained by iteratively calculating. Comparing with the experimental data under the pressure of 6.89-13.79 MPa, the average error of the model is -15.4% with the 95% confidence interval [-20.5%, -10.4%]. And the pressure has a decisive influence on the prediction accuracy of this model. Compared with the existing dryout code, the calculation speed of this model is faster, and the calculation accuracy is improved. This model, with great portability, could be applied to different objects and working conditions by changing the expression of the vapor phase velocity when the dryout phenomenon is triggered and the calculation formula of the liquid film.

A Study on the Planting Improvement and Original Landscape of Gyeonghoeru Area in Gyongbokkung Palace (경복궁 경회루 권역의 식생경관원형과 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Choong-sik;Jeong, Seul-ki
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to calculate the optimum height of trees, estimating a model for the prediction of tree growth for the landscape improvement of the Gyeonghoeru area. For the verification of measures for management, this study conducted a photographic survey of the Gyeonghoeru area and used the Pressler's formula to examine the growth rate of the pine forest of Mansesan. The results of the study are as follows. First, as a result of a field survey and landscape analysis, trees in the Gyeonghoeru area are large ones with more than a diameter at breast height of 30cm, except for weeping cherry trees and persimmon trees, and especially, it is necessary to manage them or replace with small trees through the landscape of Mansesan, which screens the landscape and pruning the trees in the terraced flower garden in the north. Second, as a result of a measurement of the growth rate of trees, for 10 years on average, they grew up by 14% in source diameter and 5% in tree height 5% in south of Mansesan and by 7% in source diameter and 2.4% in tree height in the north of Mansesan. Furthermore, when a simulation was prepared based on the measured growth rate of trees, it was found out that 20 years later, on the landscape on the second floor of Gyeonghoeru, the pine forest of Mansesan would cut off the skyline of Mt. Inwang-san. Third, this study analyzed a landscape improvement simulation and proposed a plan for tree management to take a view of the landscape of the Gyeonghoeru area. This study has a significance that it drew an efficient planting maintenance policy, considering the landscape characteristics of the Gyeonghoeru area.

The Improvement of Excavation Efficiency of Roadheader by Using Pre-Cracked Method in High Strength Rock (선균열공법을 활용한 고강도 암반구간 로드헤더 굴진효율 향상방안 연구)

  • Hyung-Ryul Kim;Sang-Jun Jung;Jun-Ho Kang
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.141-149
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    • 2023
  • Recently, as the demand for urban underground space increases, urban tunnel planning is actively progressing. In particular, the application of the roadheader excavation method, which has favorable applicability to urban tunnel, is increasing. However, it is known that the roadheader excavation method has a limitation in that excavation efficiency for high strength rock with a Uniaxial Compressive Strength (UCS) of 100 MPa or more is lowered. In this study, The pre-cracked method was presented as a method to improve the excavation efficiency of roadheader for high strength rock and its applicability was evaluated. The net cutting rate was evaluated using the Bilgin prediction formula, which can calculate the net cutting rate by considering the UCS and RQD (Rock Quality Designation). It was found that the net cutting rate increased as the RQD decreased under the rock condition with the same UCS. This is judged to increase the excavation efficiency of the roadheader in the jointed high strength rock. Additionally, the field applicability of the pre-cracked method for high strength rock was verified through field tests. It was confirmed that the crack zone was formed around the charging hole, and it is considered that the pre-cracked method can be applied to the high strength rock.

Urban Growth Prediction each Administrative District Considering Social Economic Development Aspect of Climate Change Scenario (기후변화시나리오의 사회경제발전 양상을 고려한 행정구역별 도시성장 예측)

  • Kim, Jin Soo;Park, So Young
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2013
  • Land-use/cover changes not only amplify or alleviate influence of climate changes but also they are representative factors to affect environmental change along with climate changes. Thus, the use of land-use/cover changes scenario, consistent climate change scenario is very important to evaluate reliable influences by climate change. The purpose for this study is to predict and analyze the future urban growth considering social and economic scenario from RCP scenario suggested by the 5th evaluation report of IPCC. This study sets land-use/cover changes scenario based on storyline from RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenario. Urban growth rate for each scenario is calculated by urban area per person and GDP for the last 25 years and regression formula based on double logarithmic model. In addition, the urban demand is predicted by the future population and GDP suggested by the government. This predicted demand is spatially distributed by the urban growth probability map made by logistic regression. As a result, the accuracy of urban growth probability map is appeared to be 89.3~90.3% high and the prediction accuracy for RCP 4.5 showed higher value than that of RCP 8.5. Urban areas from 2020 to 2050 showed consistent growth while the rate of increasing urban areas for RCP 8.5 scenario showed higher value than that of RCP 4.5 scenario. Increase of urban areas is predicted by the fact that famlands are damaged. Especially RCP 8.5 scenario indicated more increase not only farmland but also forest than RCP 4.5 scenario. In addition, the decrease of farmland and forest showed higher level from metropolitan cities than province cities. The results of this study is believed to be used for basic data to clarify complex two-way effects quantitatively for future climate change, land-use/cover changes.

Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

A Study on the Installation of Groyne using Critical Movement Velocity and Limiting Tractive Force (이동한계유속과 한계소류력을 활용한 수제 설치에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yeong Sik;Park, Shang Ho;An, Ik Tae;Choo, Yeon Moon
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.194-199
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    • 2020
  • Unlike in the past, the world is facing water shortages due to climate change and difficulties in simultaneously managing the risks of flooding. The Four Major Rivers project was carried out with the aim of realizing a powerful nation of water by managing water resources and fostering the water industry, and the construction period was relatively short compared to the unprecedented scale. Therefore, the prediction and analysis of how the river environment changes after the Four Major Rivers Project is insufficient. Currently, part of the construction section of the Four Major Rivers Project is caused by repeated erosion and sedimentation due to the effects of sandification caused by large dredging and flood-time reservoirs, and the head erosion of the tributaries occurs. In order to solve these problems, the riverbed maintenance work was installed, but it resulted in erosion of both sides of the river and the development of new approaches and techniques to keep the river bed stable, such as erosion and excessive sedimentation, is required. The water agent plays a role of securing a certain depth of water for the main stream by concentrating the flow so much in the center and preventing levee erosion by controlling the flow direction and flow velocity. In addition, Groyne products provide various ecological environments by forming a natural form of riverbeds by inducing local erosion and deposition in addition to the protection functions of the river bank and embankment. Therefore, after reviewing the method of determining the shape of the Groyne structure currently in use by utilizing the mobile limit flow rate and marginal reflux force, a new Critical Movement Velocity(${\bar{U}}_d$) and a new resistance coefficient formula considering the mathematical factors applicable to the actual domestic stream were developed and the measures applicable to Groyne installation were proposed.

Investigation of Norovirus Occurrence and Influence of Environmental Factors in Food Service Institutions of ChungCheong Area (충청지역 집단급식소의 노로바이러스 실태조사와 환경요인의 영향)

  • Jung, Woo-Young;Eom, Joon-Ho;Kim, Byeong-Jo;Yun, Min-Ho;Ju, In-Sun;Kim, Chang-Soo;Kim, Mi-Ra;Byun, Jung-A;Park, You-Gyoung;Son, Sang-Hyuck;Lee, Eun-Mi;Jung, Rae-Seok;Na, Mi-Ae;Yuk, Dong-Yeon;Gang, Ji-Yeon;Heo, Ok-Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.153-161
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the appearance of norovirus in the water for food in food service institutions and the influence of physicochemical and microbial factors of norovirus in order to work out basic data to predict the detection of norovirus. Among 82 samples of water for food in food service institutions, norovirus appeared in 7 samples and the rate of appearance was 8.5%. As for the type of norovirus, one samples contained GI type (genotype GI-6) and six samples contained GII type (genotype GII-2, GII-4, GII-12). In the regression model of prediction of norovirus, the rate of appearance was correlated with $NH_3$-N, total solids and the consumption of $KMnO_4$, out of such variables as $NH_3$-N, total solids, the consumption of $KMnO_4$, depth, chloride and total colony counts, and its contribution rate for effectiveness was 78.60%. In order to examine the influential factor of environment upon the detection of norovirus, Pearson's correlation analysis was carried out. The predictable regression formula for appearance rate of norovirus was expressed as -1.818 + 42.677 [$NH_3$-N] + 0.023 [total solids] + 0.762 [consumption of $KMnO_4$] -0.009 [depth] -0.146 [chloride] + 0.007 [total colony counts] (R = 0.904, $R^2$ = 0.818, adjusted $R^2$ = 0.786, p < 0.05). The most influential factors upon the detection of norovirus were $NH_3$-N, total solids and the consumption of $KMnO_4$. In other words, when the measured values of $NH_3$-N, total solids and the consumption of $KMnO_4$ were higher, the possibility of appearance of norovirus increased.