• 한국가스학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.61-69
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• 2017

생산성을 증대시키는 기술의 발달로 상업적인 생산이 가능해진 비전통 가스에 대한 개발이 북미를 중심으로 진행되고 있다. 셰일 저류층은 유체투과도가 낮으며, 일반적인 석유자원과 달리 수압파쇄로부터 생성된 균열을 통해 가스 생산이 이루어지므로 초기의 생산 감퇴율이 큰 반면 후반부에서는 감퇴하는 변화율이 매우 작은 특징을 나타낸다. 이러한 셰일가스의 생산량 변동성으로 인해 단일 예측값을 산출하는 생산감퇴곡선분석기법을 생산량 자료 분석에 적용할 경우 불확실성을 고려하기 어렵다. 이 연구에서는 미국 Eagle Ford 지역의 생산정 자료에 대하여 확률론적 기법 중 하나인 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용하였으며, 생산감퇴곡선인자에 대한 난수발생 시 핵밀도 함수를 활용하여 분포에 대한 가정 없이 자료의 특성을 반영한 확률분포를 도출하였다. 또한, 일반적으로 사용되고 있는 Arps 쌍곡선함수와 치밀/셰일층의 특성을 고려하여 생산량 예측이 가능한 Modified SEPD 적용에 있어 단일값이 아닌 확률에 따른 궁극가채량을 예측함으로써 불확실성을 최소화하고자 하였다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.96-103
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• 2023

Generally, human stampedes and crowd collapses occur when people press against each other, causing falls that may result in death or injury. Particularly, crowd accidents have become increasingly common since the 1990s, with an average of 380 deaths annually. For instance, in Korea, a stampede occurred during the Itaewon Halloween festival on October 29, 2022, when several people crowded onto a narrow, downhill road, which was 45 meters long and between 3.2 and 4 meters wide. Precisely, this stampede was primarily due to the excessive number of people relative to the road size. Essentially, stampedes can occur anywhere and at any time, not just at events, but also in other places where large crowds gather. More specifically, the likelihood of accidents increases when the crowd density exceeds a turbulence threshold of 5-6 /m². Meanwhile, festivals and events, which have become more frequent and are promoted through social media, garner people from near and far to a specific location. Besides, as cities grow, the number of people gathering in one place increases. While stampedes are rare, their impact is significant, and the uncertainty associated with them is high. Currently, there is no scientific system to analyze the risk of stampedes due to crowd concentration. Consequently, to prevent such accidents, it is essential to prepare for crowd disasters that reflect social changes and regional characteristics. Hence, this study proposes using digital topographic maps and crowd-density risk simulations to develop a 3D model of the region. Specifically, the crowd density simulation allows for an analysis of the density of people walking along specific paths, which enables the prediction of danger areas and the risk of crowding. By using the simulation method in this study, it is anticipated that safety measures can be rationally established for specific situations, such as local festivals, and preparations may be made for crowd accidents in downtown areas.

• 한국식품과학회지
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.827-833
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• 1988

본 연구는 식품의 동결시간에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대해 비교 검토하고. 시료 두께에 따른 동결시간 예측 모델을 유도하기 위해 정지공기식 동결법을 이용하여 피조개 등 4종의 시료에 대하여 실험하였다. 그 결과, 시료의 두께가 두꺼울수록, 표면열전달계수 및 초기온도에 의한 영향은 상당히 급증하였으며, 표면열전달계수의 값이 낮을수록 시료 두께에 미치는 영향은 크며. $150W/m^2^{\circ}C$ 이상에서는 동결시간에 미치는 영향이 거의 유사하게 나타났다. 또한 각 시료에 있어 초기 빙결점이 낮을수록 초기 수분함량이 많을수록, 밀도가 높을수록 동결시간이 길게 나타났고. 열적 물성치의 영향은 밀도, 수분함량, 비열 및 열전도도의 순으로 나타났다. 그리고 시료 초기온도, 초기 빙결점, 동결매체 온도에 따른 시료 두께별 동결 시간을 예측할 수 있는 중직선 회귀방정식을 유도한 결과 실험치와 비교하여 ${\pm}5%$의 오차를 보여 주었다.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.321-338
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• 2009

이 연구의 목적은 비대칭 분포를 가지는 현장 조사 자료로부터 GIS 기반 주제도를 생성하기 위한 공간 내삽 방법으로 단변량 크리깅 기법을 비교하는데 있다. 기존 정규 크리깅과 비선형 자료 변환에 기반을 둔 로그 정규 크리깅, 다중 가우시안 크리깅과 지시자 크리깅을 지화학 원소 비소와 납에 대해 사례 연구를 통해 비교하였다. 예측 능력의 비교 분석을 위해 leave-one-out 기반 교차 검증을 통한 오차 분석을 수행하였으며, 샘플링 밀도의 차이에 따른 오차의 변화 양상도 분석하였다. 비교 분석 결과, 지시자 크리깅이 전반적으로 가장 높은 예측 능력을 나타내었으며, 작은 값과 높은 값의 예측 능력도 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 정규 크리깅에 비해 비선형 자료 변환 기반 크리깅 기법들이 우수한 예측 능력을 나타내었지만, 기존에 많이 적용된 로그 정규 크리깅은 샘플링 밀도와 상관없이 편향 정도가 가장 크게 나타내었다. 이 연구를 통해 얻어지는 정량적 검증 결과는 비대칭 분포를 가지는 현장 조사 자료의 내삽을 위한 크기깅 기법의 선정에 유용하게 이용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.216-238
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• 2023

In intelligent transportation systems, traffic management is an important task. The accurate forecasting of traffic characteristics like flow, congestion, and density is still active research because of the non-linear nature and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal data. Inclement weather, such as rain and snow, and other special events such as holidays, accidents, and road closures have a significant impact on driving and the average speed of vehicles on the road, which lowers traffic capacity and causes congestion in a widespread manner. This work designs a model for multivariate short-term traffic congestion prediction using SLSTM_AE-BiLSTM. The proposed design consists of a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) network to predict traffic flow value and a Convolutional Neural network (CNN) model for detecting the congestion status. This model uses spatial static temporal dynamic data. The stacked Long Short Term Memory Autoencoder (SLSTM AE) is used to encode the weather features into a reduced and more informative feature space. BiLSTM model is used to capture the features from the past and present traffic data simultaneously and also to identify the long-term dependencies. It uses the traffic data and encoded weather data to perform the traffic flow prediction. The CNN model is used to predict the recurring congestion status based on the predicted traffic flow value at a particular urban traffic network. In this work, a publicly available Caltrans PEMS dataset with traffic parameters is used. The proposed model generates the congestion prediction with an accuracy rate of 92.74% which is slightly better when compared with other deep learning models for congestion prediction.

• 한국해양공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국해양공학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.277-283
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• 2003

This paper constructed the 3D real-time numerical model for which predicts the water quality and movement characteristics of the inner bay, which consider the characteristics of the wind-driven current and density current in estuaries which generated by the river discharge from the Hyeong-san river and oceanic water of the Eastern sea. The constructed numerical model reappeared successfully the seawater circulation current of Yeong-il Bay, which used the input conditions of the real-time tidal current, river discharge and weather conditions at March of 2001 year. Also to observe the wind-driven current and density current in estuaries effected to the seawater circulation pattern of the inner bay, we investigated the analyzation for the each impact factors and the relationship with the water quality of Yeong-il bay

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.166-175
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• 2002

Low cycle fatigue tests are performed on the HSLA steel that be developed for a submarine material. The relation between strain energy density and numbers of cycles to failure is examined in order to predict the low cycle fatigue life of HSLA steel. The cyclic properties are determined by a least square fit techniques. The life predicted by the strain energy method is found to coincide with experimental data and results obtained from the Coffin-Manson method. Also the cyclic behavior of HSLA steel is characterized by cyclic softening with increasing number of cycle at room temperature. Especially, low cycle fatigue characteristics and microstructural changes of HSLA steel are investigated according to changing tempering temperatures. In the case of HSLA steel, the $\varepsilon$-Cu is farmed in $550^{\circ}C$ of tempering temperature and enhances the low cycle fatigue properties.

• 한국재료학회지
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• 제17권12호
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• pp.637-641
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• 2007

The total energy and strength of Mg alloy doped with Al, Ca and Zn, were calculated using the density functional theory. The calculations was performed by two programs; the discrete variational $X{\alpha}\;(DV-X{\alpha})$ method, which is a sort of molecular orbital full potential method; Vienna Ab-initio Simulation Package (VASP), which is a sort of pseudo potential method. The fundamental mixed orbital structure in each energy level near the Fermi level was investigated with simple model using $DV-X{\alpha}$. The optimized crystal structures calculated by VASP were compared to the measured structure. The density of state and the energy levels of dopant elements was discussed in association with properties. When the lattice parameter obtained from this study was compared, it was slightly different from the theoretical value but it was similar to Mk, and we obtained the reliability of data. A parameter Mk obtained by the $DV-X{\alpha}$ method was proportional to electronegativity and inversely proportional to ionic radii. We can predict the mechanical properties because $\Delta{\overline{Mk}}$is proportional to hardness.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.231-235
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• 2013

The purpose of this paper is to compare with estimation of equivalent fatigue load in time domain and frequency domain and estimate the fatigue life of structure with multi-axial vibration loading. The fatigue analysis with two methods is implemented with various signals like random, sinusoidal signals. Also an equivalent fatigue life estimated by rainflow cycle counting in time domain is compared with results estimated with probability density function of each signal in frequency domain. In case of frequency domain, equivalent fatigue life can estimate through Dirlik's method with probability density function. And the work proposed in this paper compared the fatigue damage accumulated under uni-axial loading to that induced by multi-axial loading. The comparison is preformed for a simple cantilever beam, which is exposed to vibrations of several directions. For verification of estimation performance of fatigue life, results are compared to those of FEM analysis (ANSYS).

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.87-96
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• 1998

The bending performances were evaluated at the radiata pine plywood through veneer compositions encompassing veneer quality, ply-numbers and overlays of the high density- or medium density-phenol resin impregnated sheets (hereafter abbreviated as resin sheets) on the raw plywood. In addition, a prediction on the bending MOE of veneers and plywoods was carried out by the nondestructive testing with stresswave timer. The summarized results were as follows: I. Bending strength and bending MOE of resin sheets-overlaid plywoods in parallel surface grain direction through 5 and 7ply were increased by 13 to 45% and 17 to 34%, respectively. Resin sheets-overlay occurred an increasing effect of the strength efficiency i.e. strength perpendicular-to-grain direction versus that parallel-to-grain direction, showing the phenomenon that the plywood strength becomes greater at the perpendicular-to-grain direction of 7ply than at that of 5ply. Displacement at bending failure had a greater trend at 7ply than at 5ply, and was decreased by resin sheets-overlay. 2. After the nondestructive bending MOEs were measured for individual veneers, these veneers were rearranged in plywood-manufacture. In these plywoods, including resin sheets-overlay, the actual MOE was predictable with feasibility of $R^2$=0.53, and also the nondestructively-evaluated MOE was lower by 20% in raw plywood, and higher 20% in LVL than actual bending MOEs.