• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.61-69
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• 2017

The commercial development of unconventional gas is pursued in North America because it is more feasible owing to the technology required to improve productivity. Shale reservoir have low permeability and gas production can be carried out through cracks generated by hydraulic fracturing. The decline rate during the initial production period is high, but very low latter on, there are significant variations from the initial production behavior. Therefore, in the prediction of the production rate using deterministic decline curve analysis(DCA), it is not possible to consider the uncertainty in the production behavior. In this study, production rate of the Eagle Ford shale is predicted by Arps Hyperbolic and Modified SEPD. To minimize the uncertainty in predicting the Estimated Ultimate Recovery(EUR), Monte Carlo simulation is used to multi-wells analysis. Also, kernel density function is applied to determine probability distribution of decline curve factors without any assumption.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.96-103
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• 2023

Generally, human stampedes and crowd collapses occur when people press against each other, causing falls that may result in death or injury. Particularly, crowd accidents have become increasingly common since the 1990s, with an average of 380 deaths annually. For instance, in Korea, a stampede occurred during the Itaewon Halloween festival on October 29, 2022, when several people crowded onto a narrow, downhill road, which was 45 meters long and between 3.2 and 4 meters wide. Precisely, this stampede was primarily due to the excessive number of people relative to the road size. Essentially, stampedes can occur anywhere and at any time, not just at events, but also in other places where large crowds gather. More specifically, the likelihood of accidents increases when the crowd density exceeds a turbulence threshold of 5-6 /m². Meanwhile, festivals and events, which have become more frequent and are promoted through social media, garner people from near and far to a specific location. Besides, as cities grow, the number of people gathering in one place increases. While stampedes are rare, their impact is significant, and the uncertainty associated with them is high. Currently, there is no scientific system to analyze the risk of stampedes due to crowd concentration. Consequently, to prevent such accidents, it is essential to prepare for crowd disasters that reflect social changes and regional characteristics. Hence, this study proposes using digital topographic maps and crowd-density risk simulations to develop a 3D model of the region. Specifically, the crowd density simulation allows for an analysis of the density of people walking along specific paths, which enables the prediction of danger areas and the risk of crowding. By using the simulation method in this study, it is anticipated that safety measures can be rationally established for specific situations, such as local festivals, and preparations may be made for crowd accidents in downtown areas.

• Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.827-833
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• 1988

The objectives of this investigation were to develop an improved analytical method and to review with respect to experimental parameters and thermo-physical properties influencing the freezing time prediction. The results indicate that the relationship between freezing time and product size is dependent on the surface heat transfer coefficient. As the magnitude of surface heat transfer coefficient decreases, the influence of product size on freezing time becomes more profound. But the freezing time does decrease slightly as the coefficients are increased to values greater than 150 $w/m^2^{\circ}C$. In addition, influence of thermo-physical properties on the freezing time prediction shown generally density, water content, specific heat and thermal conductivity, in order of % difference. Multiple linear regression equation for freezing time prediction were obtained with respect to 4 different food materials with varying thickness.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.321-338
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• 2009

The objective of this paper is to compare spatial prediction capabilities of univariate kriging algorithms for generating GIS-based thematic maps from ground survey data with asymmetric distributions. Four univariate kriging algorithms including traditional ordinary kriging, three non-linear transform-based kriging algorithms such as log-normal kriging, multi-Gaussian kriging and indicator kriging are applied for spatial interpolation of geochemical As and Pb elements. Cross validation based on a leave-one-out approach is applied and then prediction errors are computed. The impact of the sampling density of the ground survey data on the prediction errors are also investigated. Through the case study, indicator kriging showed the smallest prediction errors and superior prediction capabilities of very low and very high values. Other non-linear transform based kriging algorithms yielded better prediction capabilities than traditional ordinary kriging. Log-normal kriging which has been widely applied, however, produced biased estimation results (overall, overestimation). It is expected that such quantitative comparison results would be effectively used for the selection of an optimal kriging algorithm for spatial interpolation of ground survey data with asymmetric distributions.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.216-238
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• 2023

In intelligent transportation systems, traffic management is an important task. The accurate forecasting of traffic characteristics like flow, congestion, and density is still active research because of the non-linear nature and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal data. Inclement weather, such as rain and snow, and other special events such as holidays, accidents, and road closures have a significant impact on driving and the average speed of vehicles on the road, which lowers traffic capacity and causes congestion in a widespread manner. This work designs a model for multivariate short-term traffic congestion prediction using SLSTM_AE-BiLSTM. The proposed design consists of a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) network to predict traffic flow value and a Convolutional Neural network (CNN) model for detecting the congestion status. This model uses spatial static temporal dynamic data. The stacked Long Short Term Memory Autoencoder (SLSTM AE) is used to encode the weather features into a reduced and more informative feature space. BiLSTM model is used to capture the features from the past and present traffic data simultaneously and also to identify the long-term dependencies. It uses the traffic data and encoded weather data to perform the traffic flow prediction. The CNN model is used to predict the recurring congestion status based on the predicted traffic flow value at a particular urban traffic network. In this work, a publicly available Caltrans PEMS dataset with traffic parameters is used. The proposed model generates the congestion prediction with an accuracy rate of 92.74% which is slightly better when compared with other deep learning models for congestion prediction.

• Proceedings of the Korea Committee for Ocean Resources and Engineering Conference
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.277-283
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• 2003

This paper constructed the 3D real-time numerical model for which predicts the water quality and movement characteristics of the inner bay, which consider the characteristics of the wind-driven current and density current in estuaries which generated by the river discharge from the Hyeong-san river and oceanic water of the Eastern sea. The constructed numerical model reappeared successfully the seawater circulation current of Yeong-il Bay, which used the input conditions of the real-time tidal current, river discharge and weather conditions at March of 2001 year. Also to observe the wind-driven current and density current in estuaries effected to the seawater circulation pattern of the inner bay, we investigated the analyzation for the each impact factors and the relationship with the water quality of Yeong-il bay

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.166-175
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• 2002

Low cycle fatigue tests are performed on the HSLA steel that be developed for a submarine material. The relation between strain energy density and numbers of cycles to failure is examined in order to predict the low cycle fatigue life of HSLA steel. The cyclic properties are determined by a least square fit techniques. The life predicted by the strain energy method is found to coincide with experimental data and results obtained from the Coffin-Manson method. Also the cyclic behavior of HSLA steel is characterized by cyclic softening with increasing number of cycle at room temperature. Especially, low cycle fatigue characteristics and microstructural changes of HSLA steel are investigated according to changing tempering temperatures. In the case of HSLA steel, the $\varepsilon$-Cu is farmed in $550^{\circ}C$ of tempering temperature and enhances the low cycle fatigue properties.

• Korean Journal of Materials Research
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• v.17 no.12
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• pp.637-641
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• 2007

The total energy and strength of Mg alloy doped with Al, Ca and Zn, were calculated using the density functional theory. The calculations was performed by two programs; the discrete variational $X{\alpha}\;(DV-X{\alpha})$ method, which is a sort of molecular orbital full potential method; Vienna Ab-initio Simulation Package (VASP), which is a sort of pseudo potential method. The fundamental mixed orbital structure in each energy level near the Fermi level was investigated with simple model using $DV-X{\alpha}$. The optimized crystal structures calculated by VASP were compared to the measured structure. The density of state and the energy levels of dopant elements was discussed in association with properties. When the lattice parameter obtained from this study was compared, it was slightly different from the theoretical value but it was similar to Mk, and we obtained the reliability of data. A parameter Mk obtained by the $DV-X{\alpha}$ method was proportional to electronegativity and inversely proportional to ionic radii. We can predict the mechanical properties because $\Delta{\overline{Mk}}$is proportional to hardness.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.231-235
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• 2013

The purpose of this paper is to compare with estimation of equivalent fatigue load in time domain and frequency domain and estimate the fatigue life of structure with multi-axial vibration loading. The fatigue analysis with two methods is implemented with various signals like random, sinusoidal signals. Also an equivalent fatigue life estimated by rainflow cycle counting in time domain is compared with results estimated with probability density function of each signal in frequency domain. In case of frequency domain, equivalent fatigue life can estimate through Dirlik's method with probability density function. And the work proposed in this paper compared the fatigue damage accumulated under uni-axial loading to that induced by multi-axial loading. The comparison is preformed for a simple cantilever beam, which is exposed to vibrations of several directions. For verification of estimation performance of fatigue life, results are compared to those of FEM analysis (ANSYS).

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.87-96
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• 1998

The bending performances were evaluated at the radiata pine plywood through veneer compositions encompassing veneer quality, ply-numbers and overlays of the high density- or medium density-phenol resin impregnated sheets (hereafter abbreviated as resin sheets) on the raw plywood. In addition, a prediction on the bending MOE of veneers and plywoods was carried out by the nondestructive testing with stresswave timer. The summarized results were as follows: I. Bending strength and bending MOE of resin sheets-overlaid plywoods in parallel surface grain direction through 5 and 7ply were increased by 13 to 45% and 17 to 34%, respectively. Resin sheets-overlay occurred an increasing effect of the strength efficiency i.e. strength perpendicular-to-grain direction versus that parallel-to-grain direction, showing the phenomenon that the plywood strength becomes greater at the perpendicular-to-grain direction of 7ply than at that of 5ply. Displacement at bending failure had a greater trend at 7ply than at 5ply, and was decreased by resin sheets-overlay. 2. After the nondestructive bending MOEs were measured for individual veneers, these veneers were rearranged in plywood-manufacture. In these plywoods, including resin sheets-overlay, the actual MOE was predictable with feasibility of $R^2$=0.53, and also the nondestructively-evaluated MOE was lower by 20% in raw plywood, and higher 20% in LVL than actual bending MOEs.