• 전기학회논문지
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• 제59권6호
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• pp.1159-1166
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• 2010

To improve prediction quality of a nonlinear prediction system, the system's capability for uncertainty of nonlinear data should be satisfactory. This paper presents a TSK fuzzy prediction system that can consider and deal with the uncertainty of nonlinear data sufficiently. In the design procedures of the proposed system, HCBKA(Hierarchical Correlationship-Based K-means clustering Algorithm) was used to generate the accurate fuzzy rule base that can control output according to input efficiently, and the first-order difference method was applied to reflect various characteristics of the nonlinear data. Also, multiple prediction systems were designed to analyze the prediction tendencies of each difference data generated by the difference method. In addition, to enhance the prediction quality of the proposed system, an error compensation method was proposed and it compensated the prediction error of the systems suitably. Finally, the prediction performance of the proposed system was verified by simulating two typical time series examples.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.616-628
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• 2000

In this paper, we present the modeling of the ozone prediction system using Neuro-Fuzzy approaches. The mechanism of ozone concentration is highly complex, nonlinear, and nonstationary, the modeling of ozone prediction system has many problems and the results of prediction is not a good performance so far. The Dynamic Polynomial Neural Network(DPNN) which employs a typical algorithm of GMDH(Group Method of Data Handling) is a useful method for data analysis, identification of nonlinear complex system, and prediction of a dynamical system. The structure of the final model is compact and the computation speed to produce an output is faster than other modeling methods. In addition to DPNN, this paper also includes a Fuzzy Logic Method for modeling of ozone prediction system. The results of each modeling method and the performance of ozone prediction are presented. The proposed method shows that the prediction to the ozone concentration based upon Neuro-Fuzzy approaches gives us a good performance for ozone prediction in high and low ozone concentration with the ability of superior data approximation and self organization.

• 통합자연과학논문집
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.105-115
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• 2019

In this paper, a prediction system is proposed to control the brightness of smart street lamps by predicting the moving path through the reduction of consumption power and information of pedestrian's past moving direction while meeting the function of existing smart street lamps. The brightness of smart street lamps is adjusted by utilizing the walk tracking vector and soft hand-off characteristics obtained through the motion sensing sensor of smart street lamps. In addition, the motion vector is used to analyze and predict the pedestrian path, and the GPU is used for high-speed computation. Pedestrians were detected using adaptive Gaussian mixing, weighted difference imaging, and motion vectors, and motions of pedestrians were analyzed using the extracted motion vectors. The preprocessing process using linear interpolation is performed to improve the performance of the proposed prediction system. Fuzzy prediction system and neural network prediction system are designed in parallel to improve efficiency and rough set is used for error correction.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제30권A호
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• pp.111-117
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• 2010

To improve the performance of the prediction system, the system should reflect well the uncertainty of nonlinear data. Thus, this paper presents multiple prediction systems based on Type-2 fuzzy sets. To construct each prediction system, an Interval Type-2 TSK Fuzzy Logic System and difference data were used, because, in general, it has been known that the Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System can deal with the uncertainty of nonlinear data better than the Type-1 Fuzzy Logic System, and the difference data can provide more steady information than that of original data. Also, to improve each rule base of the fuzzy prediction systems, the HCBKA (Hierarchical Correlation Based K-means clustering Algorithm) was applied because it can consider correlationship and statistical characteristics between data at a time. Subsequently, to alleviate complexity of the proposed prediction system, a system selection method was used. Finally, this paper analyzed and compared the performances between the Type-1 prediction system and the Interval Type-2 prediction system using simulations of three typical time series examples.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.563-573
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• 2018

An Expert Seasonal Prediction System for operational Seasonal Outlook (ESPreSSO) is developed based on the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) dynamical prediction and expert-guided statistical downscaling techniques. Dynamical models have improved to provide meaningful seasonal prediction, and their prediction skills are further improved by various ensemble and downscaling techniques. However, experienced scientists and forecasters make subjective correction for the operational seasonal outlook due to limited prediction skills and biases of dynamical models. Here, a hybrid seasonal prediction system that grafts experts' knowledge and understanding onto dynamical MME prediction is developed to guide operational seasonal outlook in Korea. The basis dynamical prediction is based on the APCC MME, which are statistically mapped onto the station-based observations by experienced experts. Their subjective selection undergoes objective screening and quality control to generate final seasonal outlook products after physical ensemble averaging. The prediction system is constructed based on 23-year training period of 1983-2005, and its performance and stability are assessed for the independent 11-year prediction period of 2006-2016. The results show that the ESPreSSO has reliable and stable prediction skill suitable for operational use.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.115-123
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• 2021

Through machine learning-based load prediction, it is possible to prevent excessive power generation or unnecessary economic investment by estimating the appropriate amount of facility investment in consideration of the load that will increase in the future or providing basic data for policy establishment to distribute the maximum load. However, in order to secure the reliability of the developed load prediction model in the field, the performance comparison verification between the distribution line load prediction models must be preceded, but a comparative performance verification system between the distribution line load prediction models has not yet been established. As a result, it is not possible to accurately determine the performance excellence of the load prediction model because it is not possible to easily determine the likelihood between the load prediction models. In this paper, we developed a reliability verification system for load prediction models including a method of comparing and verifying the performance reliability between machine learning-based load prediction models that were not previously considered, verification process, and verification result visualization methods. Through the developed load prediction model reliability verification system, the objectivity of the load prediction model performance verification can be improved, and the field application utilization of an excellent load prediction model can be increased.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1375-1381
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• 2007

Optimization system for convergence point control is required for train control system, this paper introduces the way of enhanced optimization for convergence point with data of intelligence full prediction system. Also the result of the intelligence full prediction system is useful for train control system at the convergence point and passenger will take more accurate information from the prediction system.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제50권2호
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• pp.104-110
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• 2013

In this paper, the design procedure and results for 'Residual Life Prediction System Considering Corrosion and Coating' are explained, which is one module of 'Life-cycle Management System of Ship and Offshore Plant's' Operation. This 'Residual Life Prediction System' has two main functions; one is residual life prediction function based on probability processing using corrosion measurement data of ship's major structural members, and another is rust rate prediction function based on visual image processing of inspection photos. The analysis of system user requirements and functions are introduced, and the structure and environment of the developed system are explained.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.242-247
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• 2009

지능형 추천 시스템은 사용자의 요청에 응답하는 수동적인 시스템이 아닌 사용자가 원하는 서비스를 제안하는 시스템으로서 최근 콘텐츠 서비스 분야에 많이 개발되고 있다. 이러한 지능형 추천 시스템은 콘텐츠 개인화 서비스에 응용되고 있으며 대표적인 추천기법으로 내용기반과 협업적 필터링 기법이 있다. 본 연구에서는 협업적 필터링 및 퍼지 시스템을 이용하여 추천 시스템의 기반 기술인 예측 시스템을 제안하였다. 제안한 예측 시스템은 사용자의 과거 영화평가 정보를 바탕으로 영화에 대한 평가점수를 예측한다. 영화평가 예측시스템의 성능은 영화 평가점수의 실제값과 예측값의 오차를 RMSE(root mean square error) 방법으로 계산한 후 기존의 영화평가 시스템 RMSE 값과 비교하여 평가하였다. 본 연구를 통해 제안한 영화평가 예측시스템이 추천 시스템의 기반 기술로서 활용이 가능하고 다른 멀티미디어 컨텐츠 서비스 추천에도 응용이 가능할 것으로 기대한다.

• 생물환경조절학회지
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.126-135
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• 1993

Recently, the characteristic of plant production systems in Korea has been changed with the strong trends of integration and large scale, using environmental control techniques. To satisfy this change successfully, first of all, the environmental prediction inside the system must be preceded. While many environmental prediction models for plant production system were developed by many persons, each model cannot be applied to the every situation without the perfect understanding of source codes and the technical modification. The purpose of this study is building the environmental prediction model to predict and evaluate the environment inside the system numerically, and also developing the multipurpose program available for practical design. The model consisted of the basic system model, the cultivation related model and the environmental control related model. The contents of each model are as follows : the basic system model is dealing with thermal and light environments, soil environment and ventilation : the cultivation related model with soil and hydroponic cultures ; and the environmental control related model with thermal curtain and heat exchanging system. The environmental prediction model was developed using a common simulation program, PCSMP, so that it could be easily understood and modified by anyone. Finally, the model was executed and verified through comparison between simulated and measured results for soil culture, and both results showed good agreements.