• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Process Prediction Process

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Characteristics of Long-Term Settlement in the Soft Ground of Nakdong River by Numerical Analysis (수치해석에 의한 낙동강 하구 연약지반의 장기침하특성)

  • Park, Choon-Sik;Ryu, Mean-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2019
  • Deep soft ground in mouth of Nackdong river requires to be analysed with prediction method concerning characteristics of secondary consolidation from the beginning because it causes excessive settlement due to time-dependant secondary consolidation characteristics. This study investigated characteristics of extended settlement by conducting one-dimensional theory, elasto-plastic model and visco-elasto-plastic model as well as analyzing long-term measuring data observed over 2,000 days. According to one-dimensional theory and elasto-plastic model, there is not definite correlation between height of embankment and depth of soft ground while visco-elasto-plastic model showed similar result of settlement to that of long-term measuring data. Consequently it is suggested that applying visco-elasto-plastic model to developing deep underground place as studied area on predicting extended settlement before construction prevents economic loss and delay during process by preparing secondary consolidation characteristics.

Prediction of Shielding Performance by Thickness by Comparing the Single and Laminated Structures of Lead-free Radiation Fusion Shielding Sheets (무연 방사선 융합 차폐시트 단일 구조와 적층 구조의 비교를 통한 두께별 차폐성능 예측)

  • Kim, Seon-Chil
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 2021
  • Radiation shielding of affinity material, which is widely used in medical institutions, is made in sheet form and is mainly applied to apron. Shielding performance is presented based on lead equivalent, and is presented as 0.25-0.50mmPb. In the case of shielding materials where lead is used as the main material, the shielding performance can be adjusted by thickness due to the excellent machinability of lead. However, eco-friendly shielding sheets are difficult to control shielding performance based on thickness criteria as shielding performance varies depending on the content of shielding materials, the properties of polymeric materials that are base materials, and the technical differences in the process. In this study, shielding sheets were manufactured based on thickness to solve these problems and the shielding performance was compared in this study. As a result, it was shown that the laminated structure shielding sheet was more effective.

A Study on the Predictive Maintenance of 5 Axis CNC Machine Tools for Cutting of Large Aircraft Parts (대형 항공부품용 5축 가공기에서의 예측정비에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chulsoon;Bae, Sungmoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.161-167
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    • 2020
  • In the process of cutting large aircraft parts, the tool may be abnormally worn or damaged due to various factors such as mechanical vibration, disturbances such as chips, and physical properties of the workpiece, which may result in deterioration of the surface quality of the workpiece. Because workpieces used for large aircrafts parts are expensive and require strict processing quality, a maintenance plan is required to minimize the deterioration of the workpiece quality that can be caused by unexpected abnormalities of the tool and take maintenance measures at an earlier stage that does not adversely affect the machining. In this paper, we propose a method to indirectly monitor the tool condition that can affect the machining quality of large aircraft parts through real-time monitoring of the current signal applied to the spindle motor during machining by comparing whether the monitored current shows an abnormal pattern during actual machining by using this as a reference pattern. First, 30 types of tools are used for machining large aircraft parts, and three tools with relatively frequent breakages among these tools were selected as monitoring targets by reflecting the opinions of processing experts in the field. Second, when creating the CNC machining program, the M code, which is a CNC auxiliary function, is inserted at the starting and ending positions of the tool to be monitored using the editing tool, so that monitoring start and end times can be notified. Third, the monitoring program was run with the M code signal notified from the CNC controller by using the DAQ (Data Acquisition) device, and the machine learning algorithms for detecting abnormality of the current signal received in real time could be used to determine whether there was an abnormality. Fourth, through the implementation of the prototype system, the feasibility of the method proposed in this paper was shown and verified through an actual example.

Aerodynamic Model Development for Three-dimensional Scramjet Model Based on Two-dimensional CFD Analysis (스크램제트 2차원 모델의 전산해석을 이용한 3차원 비행체의 공력 모델 개발)

  • Han, Song Ee;Shin, Ho Cheol;Park, Soo Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2020
  • On the initial design process of a scramjet vehicle such as the trajectory prediction, it is inevitable to estimate the aerodynamic performance of a three-dimensional effect. Despite the necessity of intensive computing for the three-dimensional model, it is inefficient in predicting a wide range of aerodynamic performance. In this study, an engineering model for aerodynamic performance was developed based on two-dimensional computational fluid analysis and linearized supersonic inviscid flow theory. Correspondingly, the three-dimension aerodynamic performance relations are presented based on the two-dimensional results. And the additional three-dimensional computation was performed to evaluate the adequacy for the extended relations.

Establishment of flood forecasting and warning system in the un-gauged small and medium watershed through ODA (ODA사업을 통한 미계측 중소하천 유역 홍수예경보시스템 구축)

  • Koh, Deuk-Koo;Lee, Chihun;Jeon, Jeibok;Go, Sukhyon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.381-393
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    • 2021
  • As part of the National Disaster Management Research Institute's Official Development Assistance (ODA) projects for transferring new technologies in the field of disaster-safety management, a flood forecasting and warning system was established in 2019 targeting the Borikhan in the Namxan River Basin in Bolikhamxai Province, Laos. In the target area, which is an ungauged small and medium river basin, observation stations for real-time monitoring of rainfall and runoff and alarm stations were installed, and a software that performs real-time data management and flood forecasting and warning functions was also developed. In order to establish a flood warning standard and develop a nomograph for flood prediction, hydraulic and hydrological analysis was performed based on the 30-year annual maximum daily rainfall data and river morphology survey results in the target area. This paper introduces the process and methodology used in this study, and presents the results of the system's applicability review based on the data observed and collected in 2020 after system installation.

A study on prediction for reflecting variation of fertility rate by province under ultra-low fertility in Korea (초저출산율에 따른 시도별 출산율 변동을 반영한 예측 연구)

  • Oh, Jinho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.75-98
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    • 2021
  • This paper compares three statistical models that examine the relationship between national and provincespecific fertility rates. The three models are two of the regression models and a cointegration model. The regression model is by substituting Gompit transformation for the cumulative fertility rate by the average for ten years, and this model applies the raw data without transformation of the fertility data. A cointegration model can be considered when fitting the unstable time series of fertility rate in probability process. This paper proposes the following when it is intended to derive the relation of non-stationary fertility rate between the national and provinces. The cointegrated relationship between national and regional fertility rates is first derived. Furthermore, if this relationship is not significant, it is proposed to look at the national and regional fertility rate relationships with a regression model approach using raw data without transformation. Also, the regression model method of substituting Gompit transformation data resulted in an overestimation of fertility rates compared to other methods. Finally, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon and Gyeonggi province are expected to show a total fertility rate of 1.0 or less from 2025 to 2030, so an urgent and efficient policy to raise this level is needed.

Composite genotypes of progestogen-associated endometrial protein gene and their association with composition and quality of dairy cattle milk

  • Kolenda, Magdalena;Sitkowska, Beata;Kamola, Dariusz;Lambert, Barry D.
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.34 no.8
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    • pp.1283-1289
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    • 2021
  • Objective: The progestogen-associated endometrial protein (PAEP) gene encodes the main whey protein in milk, β-lactoglobulin. The aim of the study was to investigate polymorphism in the PAEP gene and its association with milk yield, composition, and quality. Methods: Test-day records for 782 dairy cows were analysed. A total of 10 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) within the PAEP gene were investigated. The following parameters were recorded: milk yield (MY, kg/d), percent milk fat (%), protein (PP, %), dry matter (DMP, %) and lactose (LP, %), urea content (UC, mg/L) as well as natural logarithm for somatic cell count (LnSCC, ln). Effect on genomic estimated breeding values accuracy was evaluated with pedigree and single step model. Results: Results show that only three SNPs were polymorphic, creating 5 composite genotypes: P1 to P5. Differences in MY between composite genotypes were noted in the two tested herds. Cows with P5 composite genotypes were characterised by the highest PP and LnSCC and the lowest LP and UC (p<0.05). P4 was linked to an increased DMP and UC, while P3 to an increase in LP and decrease in PP and LnSCC. Both factors are important markers in herd management and have high influences on the herds economics. For 5 out of 7 traits the accuracy of prediction was improved by including the haplotype as a fixed effect. Conclusion: Presented results may suggest a new way to optimise breeding programmes and demonstrate the impact of using genomic data during that process.

Architectural Product and Formwork Manufacture using 3D Printing - Applicability Verification Through Manufacturing Factor Prediction and Experimentation - (3D 프린팅을 통한 거푸집 제조 및 건축 상품 구현 - 제조인자예측과 실험을 통한 적용가능성 검증 -)

  • Park, Jinsu;Kim, kyung taek
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.113-117
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    • 2022
  • Additive manufacturing (AM, also known as 3D printing) technology is digitalized technology, making it easy to predict and manage quality and also, have design freedom ability. With these advantages, AM technology is applied to various industries. In particular, a method of manufacturing buildings and infrastructure with AM technology is being proposed to the construction industry. However, the application of AM technology is restricted due to problems such as insufficient history and quality of technology, lack of construction management methods, and certification of manufacturing products. Therefore, the manufacture of architectural products is implemented with indirect AM technology. In particular, it manufactures formwork using AM and injecting building materials to implement the architectural product. In this study, hybrid type material extrusion AM is used to manufacture large-sized formwork and implement building products. Moreover, we identify factors that can predict productivity and economic feasibility in the additive manufacturing process. As a result, design optimization results are proposed to reduce the production cost and time of architecture buildings.

Development and Wind Speed Evaluation of Ultra High Resolution KMAPP Using Urban Building Information Data (도시건물정보를 반영한 초고해상도 규모상세화 수치자료 산출체계(KMAPP) 구축 및 풍속 평가)

  • Kim, Do-Hyoung;Lee, Seung-Wook;Jeong, Hyeong-Se;Park, Sung-Hwa;Kim, Yeon-Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.179-189
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to build and evaluate a high-resolution (50 m) KMAPP (Korea Meteorological Administration Post Processing) reflecting building data. KMAPP uses LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) data to detail ground wind speed through surface roughness and elevation corrections. During the detailing process, we improved the vegetation roughness data to reflect the impact of city buildings. AWS (Automatic Weather Station) data from a total of 48 locations in the metropolitan area including Seoul in 2019 were used as the observation data used for verification. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by dividing the experiment according to the method of improving the vegetation roughness length. KMAPP has been shown to improve the tendency of LDAPS to over simulate surface wind speeds. Compared to LDAPS, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is improved by approximately 23% and Mean Bias Error (MBE) by about 47%. However, there is an error in the roughness length around the Han River or the coastline. Accordingly, the surface roughness length was improved in KMAPP and the building information was reflected. In the sensitivity experiment of improved KMAPP, RMSE was further improved to 6% and MBE to 3%. This study shows that high-resolution KMAPP reflecting building information can improve wind speed accuracy in urban areas.

Development of Corrosion Detection Method for Closed U-ribs in Steel Bridges Using Ultrasonic Velocity Method (초음파 속도법을 활용한 강교 부식 손상탐지법 개발)

  • Kim, Woo-Seok;Mun, Seong-Mo;Kim, Cheol-Min;Lee, Kang-Moon;Im, Seok-Been
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.254-261
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    • 2021
  • This study was intended to develop an inspection method to detect defects in closed-cell steel members in steel girder bridges. The ultrasonic pulse velocity method was selected as a rapid and effective method to identify thickness changes of steel specimens caused by corrsion. This study developed an algorithm to expedite the process and improve the accuracy in the prediction of steel plate thickness. Also, both static and continuous scanning methods were compared to each other to identify the difference in accuracy, but the results revealed that both methods produce almost the same results. This study also provided the idea to calculate the height of water contained in the closed-cell steel member and results of laboratory experimental results. The water heights which is thicker than the steel plate thickness were detectable and predicted using the idea suggested by this study, but the water heights lower than the steel plate thickness were not possible. However, the results showed whether the steel member contains water or not.