• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Modeling

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Spatio-spectral Fusion of Multi-sensor Satellite Images Based on Area-to-point Regression Kriging: An Experiment on the Generation of High Spatial Resolution Red-edge and Short-wave Infrared Bands (영역-점 회귀 크리깅 기반 다중센서 위성영상의 공간-분광 융합: 고해상도 적색 경계 및 단파 적외선 밴드 생성 실험)

  • Park, Soyeon;Kang, Sol A;Park, No-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_1
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    • pp.523-533
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    • 2022
  • This paper presents a two-stage spatio-spectral fusion method (2SSFM) based on area-to-point regression kriging (ATPRK) to enhance spatial and spectral resolutions using multi-sensor satellite images with complementary spatial and spectral resolutions. 2SSFM combines ATPRK and random forest regression to predict spectral bands at high spatial resolution from multi-sensor satellite images. In the first stage, ATPRK-based spatial down scaling is performed to reduce the differences in spatial resolution between multi-sensor satellite images. In the second stage, regression modeling using random forest is then applied to quantify the relationship of spectral bands between multi-sensor satellite images. The prediction performance of 2SSFM was evaluated through a case study of the generation of red-edge and short-wave infrared bands. The red-edge and short-wave infrared bands of PlanetScope images were predicted from Sentinel-2 images using 2SSFM. From the case study, 2SSFM could generate red-edge and short-wave infrared bands with improved spatial resolution and similar spectral patterns to the actual spectral bands, which confirms the feasibility of 2SSFM for the generation of spectral bands not provided in high spatial resolution satellite images. Thus, 2SSFM can be applied to generate various spectral indices using the predicted spectral bands that are actually unavailable but effective for environmental monitoring.

Terrestrial Magnetospheric Observations and Models in Korea (국내 우주환경 자료 보유 현황: 자기권)

  • Park, Kyung Sun;Min, Kyungguk;Division of Solar and Space Environment of KSSS,
    • Journal of Space Technology and Applications
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.178-198
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    • 2021
  • The Solar Space Environment Division of the Korean Society of Space Science (KSSS) has recently conducted a survey among the domestic researchers affiliated with academia, national research institutes, and for-profit institutes of how the data and models in their professional research field are produced, maintained, and utilized. The primary purpose of this survey is to increase the awareness and utilization of the space environment data and models as well as to promote constructive collaborations among the domestic and international researchers. The models and data surveyed are categorized into three sub-fields: the solar and interplanetary space, the (terrestrial) magnetosphere, and the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. The present paper reports the survey results in the "Magnetosphere" category. The survey shows that the domestically produced data in this category are far less than the data produced in other categories. This can be understood in part as follows: Magnetospheric research relies heavily on the in-situ observations but the development and operation of space-hardened satellites require a significant investment. Nevertheless, the recent publications show an increasing trend of research using the data from the ground stations and the recently launched domestic space missions. In the modeling front, there are first-principles physics models covering from the magnetospheric scale to the sub-ion scale and the models geared towards the space weather prediction. The detailed survey results can be accessed from the KSSS website (http://ksss.or.kr/).

Analysis of Contribution of Climate and Cultivation Management Variables Affecting Orchardgrass Production (오차드그라스의 생산량에 영향을 미치는 기후 및 재배관리의 기여도 분석)

  • Moonju Kim;Ji Yung Kim;Mu-Hwan Jo;Kyungil Sung
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to confirm the importance ratio of climate and management variables on production of orchardgrass in Korea (1982-2014). For the climate, the mean temperature in January (MTJ, ℃), lowest temperature in January (LTJ, ℃), growing days 0 to 5 (GD 1, day), growing days 5 to 25 (GD 2, day), Summer depression days (SSD, day), rainfall days (RD, day), accumulated rainfall (AR, mm), and sunshine duration (SD, hr) were considered. For the management, the establishment period (EP, 0-6 years) and number of cutting (NC, 2nd-5th) were measured. The importance ratio on production of orchardgrass was estimated using the neural network model with the perceptron method. It was performed by SPSS 26.0 (IBM Corp., Chicago). As a result, EP was the most important variable (100%), followed by RD (82.0%), AR (79.1%), NC (69.2%), LTJ (66.2%), GD 2 (63.3%), GD 1 (61.6%), SD (58.1%), SSD (50.8%) and MTJ (41.8%). It implies that EP, RD, AR, and NC were more important than others. Since the annual rainfall in Korea is exceed the required amount for the growth and development of orchardgrass, the damage caused by heavy rainfall exceeding the appropriate level could be reduced through drainage management. It means that, when cultivating orchardgrass, factors that can be controlled were relatively important. Although it is difficult to interpret the specific effect of climates on production due to neural networking modeling, in the future, this study is expected to be useful in production prediction and damage estimation by climate change by selecting major factors.

Selection Method for Installation of Reduction Facilities to Prevention of Roe Deer(Capreouls pygargus) Road-kill in Jeju Island (제주도 노루 로드킬 방지를 위한 저감시설 대상지 선정방안 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Ji;Jang, Rae-ik;Yoo, Young-jae;Lee, Jun-Won;Song, Eui-Geun;Oh, Hong-Shik;Sung, Hyun-Chan;Kim, Do-kyung;Jeon, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2023
  • The fragmentation of habitats resulting from human activities leads to the isolation of wildlife and it also causes wildlife-vehicle collisions (i.e. Road-kill). In that sense, it is important to predict potential habitats of specific wildlife that causes wildlife-vehicle collisions by considering geographic, environmental and transportation variables. Road-kill, especially by large mammals, threatens human safety as well as financial losses. Therefore, we conducted this study on roe deer (Capreolus pygargus tianschanicus), a large mammal that causes frequently Road-kill in Jeju Island. So, to predict potential wildlife habitats by considering geographic, environmental, and transportation variables for a specific species this study was conducted to identify high-priority restoration sites with both characteristics of potential habitats and road-kill hotspot. we identified high-priority restoration sites that is likely to be potential habitats, and also identified the known location of a Road-kill records. For this purpose, first, we defined the environmental variables and collect the occurrence records of roe deer. After that, the potential habitat map was generated by using Random Forest model. Second, to analyze roadkill hotspots, a kernel density estimation was used to generate a hotspot map. Third, to define high-priority restoration sites, each map was normalized and overlaid. As a result, three northern regions roads and two southern regions roads of Jeju Island were defined as high-priority restoration sites. Regarding Random Forest modeling, in the case of environmental variables, The importace was found to be a lot in the order of distance from the Oreum, elevation, distance from forest edge(outside) and distance from waterbody. The AUC(Area under the curve) value, which means discrimination capacity, was found to be 0.973 and support the statistical accuracy of prediction result. As a result of predicting the habitat of C. pygargus, it was found to be mainly distributed in forests, agricultural lands, and grasslands, indicating that it supported the results of previous studies.

Prediction of Water Storage Rate for Agricultural Reservoirs Using Univariate and Multivariate LSTM Models (단변량 및 다변량 LSTM을 이용한 농업용 저수지의 저수율 예측)

  • Sunguk Joh;Yangwon Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_4
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    • pp.1125-1134
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    • 2023
  • Out of the total 17,000 reservoirs in Korea, 13,600 small agricultural reservoirs do not have hydrological measurement facilities, making it difficult to predict water storage volume and appropriate operation. This paper examined univariate and multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) modeling to predict the storage rate of agricultural reservoirs using remote sensing and artificial intelligence. The univariate LSTM model used only water storage rate as an explanatory variable, and the multivariate LSTM model added n-day accumulative precipitation and date of year (DOY) as explanatory variables. They were trained using eight years data (2013 to 2020) for Idong Reservoir, and the predictions of the daily water storage in 2021 were validated for accuracy assessment. The univariate showed the root-mean square error (RMSE) of 1.04%, 2.52%, and 4.18% for the one, three, and five-day predictions. The multivariate model showed the RMSE 0.98%, 1.95%, and 2.76% for the one, three, and five-day predictions. In addition to the time-series storage rate, DOY and daily and 5-day cumulative precipitation variables were more significant than others for the daily model, which means that the temporal range of the impacts of precipitation on the everyday water storage rate was approximately five days.

Effect of the initial imperfection on the response of the stainless steel shell structures

  • Ali Ihsan Celik;Ozer Zeybek;Yasin Onuralp Ozkilic
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.705-720
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    • 2024
  • Analyzing the collapse behavior of thin-walled steel structures holds significant importance in ensuring their safety and longevity. Geometric imperfections present on the surface of metal materials can diminish both the durability and mechanical integrity of steel shells. These imperfections, encompassing local geometric irregularities and deformations such as holes, cavities, notches, and cracks localized in specific regions of the shell surface, play a pivotal role in the assessment. They can induce stress concentration within the structure, thereby influencing its susceptibility to buckling. The intricate relationship between the buckling behavior of these structures and such imperfections is multifaceted, contingent upon a variety of factors. The buckling analysis of thin-walled steel shell structures, similar to other steel structures, commonly involves the determination of crucial material properties, including elastic modulus, shear modulus, tensile strength, and fracture toughness. An established method involves the emulation of distributed geometric imperfections, utilizing real test specimen data as a basis. This approach allows for the accurate representation and assessment of the diversity and distribution of imperfections encountered in real-world scenarios. Utilizing defect data obtained from actual test samples enhances the model's realism and applicability. The sizes and configurations of these defects are employed as inputs in the modeling process, aiding in the prediction of structural behavior. It's worth noting that there is a dearth of experimental studies addressing the influence of geometric defects on the buckling behavior of cylindrical steel shells. In this particular study, samples featuring geometric imperfections were subjected to experimental buckling tests. These same samples were also modeled using Finite Element Analysis (FEM), with results corroborating the experimental findings. Furthermore, the initial geometrical imperfections were measured using digital image correlation (DIC) techniques. In this way, the response of the test specimens can be estimated accurately by applying the initial imperfections to FE models. After validation of the test results with FEA, a numerical parametric study was conducted to develop more generalized design recommendations for the stainless-steel shell structures with the initial geometric imperfection. While the load-carrying capacity of samples with perfect surfaces was up to 140 kN, the load-carrying capacity of samples with 4 mm defects was around 130 kN. Likewise, while the load carrying capacity of samples with 10 mm defects was around 125 kN, the load carrying capacity of samples with 14 mm defects was measured around 120 kN.

International Research Trend on Mountainous Sediment-related Disasters Induced by Earthquakes (지진 유발 산지토사재해 관련 국외 연구동향 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-In;Seo, Jung-Il;Kim, Jin-Hak;Ryu, Dong-Seop;Seo, Jun-Pyo;Kim, Dong-Yeob;Lee, Chang-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.4
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    • pp.431-440
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    • 2017
  • The 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake ($M_L$ 5.8) (occurred on September 12, 2016) and the 2017 Pohang Earthquake ($M_L$ 5.4) (occurred on November 15, 2017) caused unprecedented damages in South Korea. It is necessary to establish basic data related to earthquake-induced mountainous sediment-related disasters over worldwide. In this study, we analyzed previous international studies on the earthquake-induced mountainous sediment-related disasters, then classified research areas according to research themes using text-mining and co-word analysis in VOSviewer program, and finally examined spatio-temporal research trends by research area. The result showed that the related-researches have been rapidly increased since 2005, which seems to be affected by recent large-scale earthquakes occurred in China, Taiwan and Japan. In addition, the research area related to mountainous sediment-related disasters induced by earthquakes was classified into four subjects: (i) mechanisms of disaster occurrence; (ii) rainfall parameters controlling disaster occurrence; (iii) prediction of potential disaster area using aerial and satellite photographs; and (iv) disaster risk mapping through the modeling of disaster occurrence. These research areas are considered to have a strong correlation with each other. On the threshold year (i.e., 2012-2013), when cumulative number of research papers was reached 50% of total research papers published since 1987, proportions per unit year of all research areas should increase. Especially, the proportion of the research areas related to prediction of potential disaster area using aerial and satellite photographs is highly increased compared to other three research areas. These trends are responsible for the rapidly increasing research papers with study sites in China, and the research papers examined in Taiwan, Japan, and the United States have also contributed to increases in all research areas. The results are could be used as basic data to present future research direction related to mountainous sediment-related disasters induced by earthquakes in South Korea.

DISEASE DIAGNOSED AND DESCRIBED BY NIRS

  • Tsenkova, Roumiana N.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1031-1031
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    • 2001
  • The mammary gland is made up of remarkably sensitive tissue, which has the capability of producing a large volume of secretion, milk, under normal or healthy conditions. When bacteria enter the gland and establish an infection (mastitis), inflammation is initiated accompanied by an influx of white cells from the blood stream, by altered secretory function, and changes in the volume and composition of secretion. Cell numbers in milk are closely associated with inflammation and udder health. These somatic cell counts (SCC) are accepted as the international standard measurement of milk quality in dairy and for mastitis diagnosis. NIR Spectra of unhomogenized composite milk samples from 14 cows (healthy and mastitic), 7days after parturition and during the next 30 days of lactation were measured. Different multivariate analysis techniques were used to diagnose the disease at very early stage and determine how the spectral properties of milk vary with its composition and animal health. PLS model for prediction of somatic cell count (SCC) based on NIR milk spectra was made. The best accuracy of determination for the 1100-2500nm range was found using smoothed absorbance data and 10 PLS factors. The standard error of prediction for independent validation set of samples was 0.382, correlation coefficient 0.854 and the variation coefficient 7.63%. It has been found that SCC determination by NIR milk spectra was indirect and based on the related changes in milk composition. From the spectral changes, we learned that when mastitis occurred, the most significant factors that simultaneously influenced milk spectra were alteration of milk proteins and changes in ionic concentration of milk. It was consistent with the results we obtained further when applied 2DCOS. Two-dimensional correlation analysis of NIR milk spectra was done to assess the changes in milk composition, which occur when somatic cell count (SCC) levels vary. The synchronous correlation map revealed that when SCC increases, protein levels increase while water and lactose levels decrease. Results from the analysis of the asynchronous plot indicated that changes in water and fat absorptions occur before other milk components. In addition, the technique was used to assess the changes in milk during a period when SCC levels do not vary appreciably. Results indicated that milk components are in equilibrium and no appreciable change in a given component was seen with respect to another. This was found in both healthy and mastitic animals. However, milk components were found to vary with SCC content regardless of the range considered. This important finding demonstrates that 2-D correlation analysis may be used to track even subtle changes in milk composition in individual cows. To find out the right threshold for SCC when used for mastitis diagnosis at cow level, classification of milk samples was performed using soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) and different spectral data pretreatment. Two levels of SCC - 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ and 300 000 cells/$m\ell$, respectively, were set up and compared as thresholds to discriminate between healthy and mastitic cows. The best detection accuracy was found with 200 000 cells/$m\ell$ as threshold for mastitis and smoothed absorbance data: - 98% of the milk samples in the calibration set and 87% of the samples in the independent test set were correctly classified. When the spectral information was studied it was found that the successful mastitis diagnosis was based on reviling the spectral changes related to the corresponding changes in milk composition. NIRS combined with different ways of spectral data ruining can provide faster and nondestructive alternative to current methods for mastitis diagnosis and a new inside into disease understanding at molecular level.

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A Study on Change in Cement Mortar Characteristics under Carbonation Based on Tests for Hydration and Porosity (수화물 및 공극률 관측 실험을 통한 시멘트모르타르의 탄산화 특성 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Kwon, Seung-Jun;Song, Ha-Won;Park, Sang-Soon
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.613-621
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    • 2007
  • Due to the increasing significance of durability, much researches on carbonation, one of the major deterioration phenomena are carried out. However, conventional researches based on fully hardened concrete are focused on prediction of carbonation depth and they sometimes cause errors. In contrast with steel members, behaviors in early-aged concrete such as porosity and hydrates (calcium hydroxide) are very important and may be changed under carbonation process. Because transportation of deteriorating factors is mainly dependent on porosity and saturation, it is desirable to consider these changes in behaviors in early-aged concrete under carbonation for reasonable analysis of durability in long term exposure or combined deterioration. As for porosity, unless the decrease in $CO_2$ diffusion due to change in porosity is considered, the results from the prediction is overestimated. The carbonation depth and characteristics of pore water are mainly determined by amount of calcium hydroxide, and bound chloride content in carbonated concrete is also affected. So Analysis based on test for hydration and porosity is recently carried out for evaluation of carbonation characteristics. In this study, changes in porosity and hydrate $(Ca(OH)_2)$ under carbonation process are performed through the tests. Mercury Intrusion Porosimetry (MIP) for changed porosity, Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) for amount of $(Ca(OH)_2)$ are carried out respectively and analysis technique for porosity and hydrates under carbonation is developed utilizing modeling for behavior in early-aged concrete such as multi component hydration heat model (MCHHM) and micro pore structure formation model (MPSFM). The results from developed technique is in reasonable agreement with experimental data, respectively and they are evaluated to be used for analysis of chloride behavior in carbonated concrete.

An Intelligent Intrusion Detection Model Based on Support Vector Machines and the Classification Threshold Optimization for Considering the Asymmetric Error Cost (비대칭 오류비용을 고려한 분류기준값 최적화와 SVM에 기반한 지능형 침입탐지모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.157-173
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    • 2011
  • As the Internet use explodes recently, the malicious attacks and hacking for a system connected to network occur frequently. This means the fatal damage can be caused by these intrusions in the government agency, public office, and company operating various systems. For such reasons, there are growing interests and demand about the intrusion detection systems (IDS)-the security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. The intrusion detection models that have been applied in conventional IDS are generally designed by modeling the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. These kinds of intrusion detection models perform well under the normal situations. However, they show poor performance when they meet a new or unknown pattern of the network attacks. For this reason, several recent studies try to adopt various artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. Especially, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have popularly been applied in the prior studies because of its superior prediction accuracy. However, ANNs have some intrinsic limitations such as the risk of overfitting, the requirement of the large sample size, and the lack of understanding the prediction process (i.e. black box theory). As a result, the most recent studies on IDS have started to adopt support vector machine (SVM), the classification technique that is more stable and powerful compared to ANNs. SVM is known as a relatively high predictive power and generalization capability. Under this background, this study proposes a novel intelligent intrusion detection model that uses SVM as the classification model in order to improve the predictive ability of IDS. Also, our model is designed to consider the asymmetric error cost by optimizing the classification threshold. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, when considering total cost of misclassification in IDS, it is more reasonable to assign heavier weights on FNE rather than FPE. Therefore, we designed our proposed intrusion detection model to optimize the classification threshold in order to minimize the total misclassification cost. In this case, conventional SVM cannot be applied because it is designed to generate discrete output (i.e. a class). To resolve this problem, we used the revised SVM technique proposed by Platt(2000), which is able to generate the probability estimate. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 1,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. In addition, the SVM model was compared with the logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), and ANN to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell 4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on SVM outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that our model reduced the total misclassification cost compared to the ANN-based intrusion detection model. As a result, it is expected that the intrusion detection model proposed in this paper would not only enhance the performance of IDS, but also lead to better management of FNE.