• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Map

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Mapping Poverty Distribution of Urban Area using VIIRS Nighttime Light Satellite Imageries in D.I Yogyakarta, Indonesia

  • KHAIRUNNISAH;Arie Wahyu WIJAYANTO;Setia, PRAMANA
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aims to map the spatial distribution of poverty using nighttime light satellite images as a proxy indicator of economic activities and infrastructure distribution in D.I Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Research design, data, and methodology: This study uses official poverty statistics (National Socio-economic Survey (SUSENAS) and Poverty Database 2015) to compare satellite imagery's ability to identify poor urban areas in D.I Yogyakarta. National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS), as poverty statistics at the macro level, uses expenditure to determine the poor in a region. Poverty Database 2015 (BDT 2015), as poverty statistics at the micro-level, uses asset ownership to determine the poor population in an area. Pearson correlation is used to identify the correlation among variables and construct a Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to estimate the poverty level at a granular level of 1 km x 1 km. Results: It is found that macro poverty level and moderate annual nighttime light intensity have a Pearson correlation of 74 percent. It is more significant than micro poverty, with the Pearson correlation being 49 percent in 2015. The SVR prediction model can achieve the root mean squared error (RMSE) of up to 8.48 percent on SUSENAS 2020 poverty data.Conclusion: Nighttime light satellite imagery data has potential benefits as alternative data to support regional poverty mapping, especially in urban areas. Using satellite imagery data is better at predicting regional poverty based on expenditure than asset ownership at the micro-level. Light intensity at night can better describe the use of electricity consumption for economic activities at night, which is captured in spending on electricity financing compared to asset ownership.

Prediction of potential spread areas of African swine fever virus through wild boars using Maxent model

  • Lim, Sang Jin;Namgung, Hun;Kim, Nam Hyung;Oh, Yeonsu;Park, Yung Chul
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.54-61
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    • 2022
  • Background: In South Korea, African swine fever virus (ASFV) has spread among wild boars through Gangwon-do to Dangyang-gun, Chungcheongbuk-do on the southern border of Gangwon-do. To prevent the spread of ASFV to African swine fever (ASF)-free areas, it is necessary to identify areas with a high probability of finding ASFV-infected carcasses and to reduce the density of wild boars in those areas. In this study, we described the propagation trend of ASFV among wild boars, constructed the habitat suitability maps for ASFV-infected carcasses, and suggested areas with a high probability of finding ASFV-infected carcasses and an important route of ASFV transmission. Results: Despite the active quarantine policies in Korea to prevent the spread of ASFV through wild boars, there was no significant difference in the monthly average of number of ASFV-infected carcasses observed between 2020 and 2021. The ASFV-infected carcasses were found more in winter and spring (January to April). Since the first ASF outbreak in wild boars on October 2, 2019, the maximum width of ASFV-infected carcass distribution area was 222.7 km for about 26 months till November 20, 2021. The habitat suitability map, based on GPS coordinates of ASFV-infected wild boar carcasses, shows that highly detectable areas of ASFV-infected carcasses were sporadically dispersed in western and southwestern parts of Gangwon-do, and ranged from north to south of the province along the Baekdudaegan Mountains, whereas poorly detectable areas ranged along the north to the south in the middle parts of the province. Conclusions: Our suitability model, based on the GPS coordinates of ASFV-infected carcasses, identifies potential habitats where ASFV-infected carcasses are likely to be found and ponential routes where ASFV is likely to spread. Among ASF-free areas, the areas with high suitability predicted in this study should be given priority as survey areas to find ASFV-infected carcasses and hunting areas to reduce wild boar populations.

Impervious Surface Estimation of Jungnangcheon Basin Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Classification and Regression Tree (위성원격탐사와 분류 및 회귀트리를 이용한 중랑천 유역의 불투수층 추정)

  • Kim, Sooyoung;Heo, Jun-Haeng;Heo, Joon;Kim, SungHoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6D
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    • pp.915-922
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    • 2008
  • Impervious surface is an important index for the estimation of urbanization and the assessment of environmental change. In addition, impervious surface influences on short-term rainfall-runoff model during rainy season in hydrology. Recently, the necessity of impervious surface estimation is increased because the effect of impervious surface is increased by rapid urbanization. In this study, impervious surface estimation is performed by using remote sensing image such as Landsat-7 ETM+image with $30m{\times}30m$ spatial resolution and satellite image with $1m{\times}1m$ spatial resolution based on Jungnangcheon basin. A tasseled cap transformation and NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index) transformation are applied to Landsat-7 ETM+ image to collect various predict variables. Moreover, the training data sets are collected by overlaying between Landsat-7 ETM+ image and satellite image, and CART(classification and regression tree) is applied to the training data sets. As a result, impervious surface prediction model is consisted and the impervious surface map is generated for Jungnangcheon basin.

The Architecture of an Intelligent Digital Twin for a Cyber-Physical Route-Finding System in Smart Cities

  • Habibnezhad, Mahmoud;Shayesteh, Shayan;Liu, Yizhi;Fardhosseini, Mohammad Sadra;Jebelli, Houtan
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2020.12a
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    • pp.510-519
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    • 2020
  • Within an intelligent automated cyber-physical system, the realization of the autonomous mechanism for data collection, data integration, and data analysis plays a critical role in the design, development, operation, and maintenance of such a system. This construct is particularly vital for fault-tolerant route-finding systems that rely on the imprecise GPS location of the vehicles to properly operate, timely plan, and continuously produce informative feedback to the user. More essentially, the integration of digital twins with cyber-physical route-finding systems has been overlooked in intelligent transportation services with the capacity to construct the network routes solely from the locations of the operating vehicles. To address this limitation, the present study proposes a conceptual architecture that employs digital twin to autonomously maintain, update, and manage intelligent transportation systems. This virtual management simulation can improve the accuracy of time-of-arrival prediction based on auto-generated routes on which the vehicle's real-time location is mapped. To that end, first, an intelligent transportation system was developed based on two primary mechanisms: 1) an automated route finding process in which predictive data-driven models (i.e., regularized least-squares regression) can elicit the geometry and direction of the routes of the transportation network from the cloud of geotagged data points of the operating vehicles and 2) an intelligent mapping process capable of accurately locating the vehicles on the map whereby their arrival times to any point on the route can be estimated. Afterward, the digital representations of the physical entities (i.e., vehicles and routes) were simulated based on the auto-generated routes and the vehicles' locations in near-real-time. Finally, the feasibility and usability of the presented conceptual framework were evaluated through the comparison between the primary characteristics of the physical entities with their digital representations. The proposed architecture can be used by the vehicle-tracking applications dependent on geotagged data for digital mapping and location tracking of vehicles under a systematic comparison and simulation cyber-physical system.

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Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Grid-Based Flood Risk Mapping - Focusing on the Case of Typhoon Chaba in 2016 - (격자 기반 침수위험지도 작성을 위한 기계학습 모델별 성능 비교 연구 - 2016 태풍 차바 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Jihye Han;Changjae Kwak;Kuyoon Kim;Miran Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_2
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    • pp.771-783
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to compare the performance of each machine learning model for preparing a grid-based disaster risk map related to flooding in Jung-gu, Ulsan, for Typhoon Chaba which occurred in 2016. Dynamic data such as rainfall and river height, and static data such as building, population, and land cover data were used to conduct a risk analysis of flooding disasters. The data were constructed as 10 m-sized grid data based on the national point number, and a sample dataset was constructed using the risk value calculated for each grid as a dependent variable and the value of five influencing factors as an independent variable. The total number of sample datasets is 15,910, and the training, verification, and test datasets are randomly extracted at a 6:2:2 ratio to build a machine-learning model. Machine learning used random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) techniques, and prediction accuracy by the model was found to be excellent in the order of SVM (91.05%), RF (83.08%), and KNN (76.52%). As a result of deriving the priority of influencing factors through the RF model, it was confirmed that rainfall and river water levels greatly influenced the risk.

Visualizing the Results of Opinion Mining from Social Media Contents: Case Study of a Noodle Company (소셜미디어 콘텐츠의 오피니언 마이닝결과 시각화: N라면 사례 분석 연구)

  • Kim, Yoosin;Kwon, Do Young;Jeong, Seung Ryul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.89-105
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    • 2014
  • After emergence of Internet, social media with highly interactive Web 2.0 applications has provided very user friendly means for consumers and companies to communicate with each other. Users have routinely published contents involving their opinions and interests in social media such as blogs, forums, chatting rooms, and discussion boards, and the contents are released real-time in the Internet. For that reason, many researchers and marketers regard social media contents as the source of information for business analytics to develop business insights, and many studies have reported results on mining business intelligence from Social media content. In particular, opinion mining and sentiment analysis, as a technique to extract, classify, understand, and assess the opinions implicit in text contents, are frequently applied into social media content analysis because it emphasizes determining sentiment polarity and extracting authors' opinions. A number of frameworks, methods, techniques and tools have been presented by these researchers. However, we have found some weaknesses from their methods which are often technically complicated and are not sufficiently user-friendly for helping business decisions and planning. In this study, we attempted to formulate a more comprehensive and practical approach to conduct opinion mining with visual deliverables. First, we described the entire cycle of practical opinion mining using Social media content from the initial data gathering stage to the final presentation session. Our proposed approach to opinion mining consists of four phases: collecting, qualifying, analyzing, and visualizing. In the first phase, analysts have to choose target social media. Each target media requires different ways for analysts to gain access. There are open-API, searching tools, DB2DB interface, purchasing contents, and so son. Second phase is pre-processing to generate useful materials for meaningful analysis. If we do not remove garbage data, results of social media analysis will not provide meaningful and useful business insights. To clean social media data, natural language processing techniques should be applied. The next step is the opinion mining phase where the cleansed social media content set is to be analyzed. The qualified data set includes not only user-generated contents but also content identification information such as creation date, author name, user id, content id, hit counts, review or reply, favorite, etc. Depending on the purpose of the analysis, researchers or data analysts can select a suitable mining tool. Topic extraction and buzz analysis are usually related to market trends analysis, while sentiment analysis is utilized to conduct reputation analysis. There are also various applications, such as stock prediction, product recommendation, sales forecasting, and so on. The last phase is visualization and presentation of analysis results. The major focus and purpose of this phase are to explain results of analysis and help users to comprehend its meaning. Therefore, to the extent possible, deliverables from this phase should be made simple, clear and easy to understand, rather than complex and flashy. To illustrate our approach, we conducted a case study on a leading Korean instant noodle company. We targeted the leading company, NS Food, with 66.5% of market share; the firm has kept No. 1 position in the Korean "Ramen" business for several decades. We collected a total of 11,869 pieces of contents including blogs, forum contents and news articles. After collecting social media content data, we generated instant noodle business specific language resources for data manipulation and analysis using natural language processing. In addition, we tried to classify contents in more detail categories such as marketing features, environment, reputation, etc. In those phase, we used free ware software programs such as TM, KoNLP, ggplot2 and plyr packages in R project. As the result, we presented several useful visualization outputs like domain specific lexicons, volume and sentiment graphs, topic word cloud, heat maps, valence tree map, and other visualized images to provide vivid, full-colored examples using open library software packages of the R project. Business actors can quickly detect areas by a swift glance that are weak, strong, positive, negative, quiet or loud. Heat map is able to explain movement of sentiment or volume in categories and time matrix which shows density of color on time periods. Valence tree map, one of the most comprehensive and holistic visualization models, should be very helpful for analysts and decision makers to quickly understand the "big picture" business situation with a hierarchical structure since tree-map can present buzz volume and sentiment with a visualized result in a certain period. This case study offers real-world business insights from market sensing which would demonstrate to practical-minded business users how they can use these types of results for timely decision making in response to on-going changes in the market. We believe our approach can provide practical and reliable guide to opinion mining with visualized results that are immediately useful, not just in food industry but in other industries as well.

On the Determination of Slope Stability to Landslide by Quantification(II) (수량화(數量化)(II)에 의한 산사태사면(山沙汰斜面)의 위험도(危險度) 판별(判別))

  • Kang, Wee Pyeong;Murai, Hiroshi;Omura, Hiroshi;Ma, Ho Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.75 no.1
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    • pp.32-37
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    • 1986
  • In order to get the fundamental information that could be useful to judge the potentiality of occurrence of rapid shallow landslide in the objective slope, factors selected on Jinhae regions in Korea, where many landslides were caused by heavy rainfall of daily 465 mm and hourly 52mm in August 1979, was carried out through the multiple statistics of quantification method (II) by the electronic computer. The net system with $2{\times}2cm$ unit mesh was overlayed with the contour map of scale 1:5000. 74 meshes of landslides and 119 meshes of non-landslide were sampled out to survey the state of vegetative cover and geomorphological conditions, those were divided into 6 items arid 27 categories. As a result, main factors that would lead to landslide were shown in order of vegetation, slope type, slope position, slope, aspect and numbers of stream. Particularly, coniferous forest of 10 years old, concave slope and foot of mountain were main factors making slope instability. On the contrary, coniferous forest of 20-30 years old, deciduous forest, convex slope and summit contributed to the stable against Landslide. The boundary value between two groups of existence and none of landslides was -0.123, and its prediction was 72%. It was well predicted to divide into two groups of them.

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Study of the Construction of a Coastal Disaster Prevention System using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 이용한 연안방재 시스템 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yeon-Joong;Kim, Tae-Woo;Yoon, Jong-Sung;Kim, Myong-Kyu
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.590-596
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    • 2019
  • Numerous deaths and substantial property damage have occurred recently due to frequent disasters of the highest intensity according to the abnormal climate, which is caused by various problems, such as global warming, all over the world. Such large-scale disasters have become an international issue and have made people aware of the disasters so they can implement disaster-prevention measures. Extensive information on disaster prevention actively has been announced publicly to support the natural disaster reduction measures throughout the world. In Japan, diverse developmental studies on disaster prevention systems, which support hazard map development and flood control activity, have been conducted vigorously to estimate external forces according to design frequencies as well as expected maximum frequencies from a variety of areas, such as rivers, coasts, and ports based on broad disaster prevention data obtained from several huge disasters. However, the current reduction measures alone are not sufficiently effective due to the change of the paradigms of the current disasters. Therefore, in order to obtain the synergy effect of reduction measures, a study of the establishment of an integrated system is required to improve the various disaster prevention technologies and the current disaster prevention system. In order to develop a similar typhoon search system and establish a disaster prevention infrastructure, in this study, techniques will be developed that can be used to forecast typhoons before they strike by using artificial intelligence (AI) technology and offer primary disaster prevention information according to the direction of the typhoon. The main function of this model is to predict the most similar typhoon among the existing typhoons by utilizing the major typhoon information, such as course, central pressure, and speed, before the typhoon directly impacts South Korea. This model is equipped with a combination of AI and DNN forecasts of typhoons that change from moment to moment in order to efficiently forecast a current typhoon based on similar typhoons in the past. Thus, the result of a similar typhoon search showed that the quality of prediction was higher with the grid size of one degree rather than two degrees in latitude and longitude.

Uncertainty of Agrometeorological Advisories Caused by the Spatiotemporally Averaged Climate References (시공간평균 기준기후에 기인한 농업기상특보의 불확실성)

  • Kim, Dae-jun;Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Soo-Ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.120-129
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    • 2017
  • Agrometeorological advisories for farms and orchards are issued when daily weather exceeds a predefined range of the local reference climate, which is a long-term average of daily weather for the location. The reference climate at local scales is prepared by various simplification methods, resulting in uncertainty in the agrometeorological advisories. We restored daily weather data for the 1981-2010 period and analyzed the differences in prediction results of weather risk by comparing with the temporal and spatial simplified normal climate values. For this purpose, we selected the agricultural drought index (ADI) among various disaster related indices because ADI requires many kinds of weather data to calculate it. Ten rural counties within the Seomjin River Basin were selected for this study. The normal value of 'temporal simplification' was calculated by using the daily average value for 30 years (1981-2010). The normal value of 'spatial simplification' is the zonal average of the temporally simplified normal values falling within a standard watershed. For residual moisture index, temporal simplification normal values were overestimated, whereas spatial simplification normal values were underestimated in comparison with non-simplified normal values. The ADI's calculated from January to July 2017 showed a significant deviation in terms of the extent of drought depending on the normal values used. Through this study, we confirmed that the result of weather risk calculation using normal climatic values from 'simplified' methods can affect reliability of the agrometeorological advisories.

Vulnerability Analysis in the Nakdong River Basin for the Utilization of Flood Risk Mapping (홍수위험지도 활용을 위한 낙동강 유역에서의 홍수취약도 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyung;Han, Kun-Yeun;Cho, Wan-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.203-222
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    • 2011
  • The characteristics of flood damages have been increasingly strengthened and take the form of unpredictable and unusual weather phenomena caused by climate change and climate anomalies. To prevent inundation damage caused by breach of hydraulic structure such as dam or levee, and trouble of drainage of inner basin, the prediction necessity of flood inundation area, flood risk analysis, and drawing flood risk maps have been on the rise, and the national flood risk maps have been produced. In this study, the quantitative flood vulnerability analysis was performed, which represents population living within flood-affected areas, types of economic activities, facilities affected by flood, in order to extend flood risk mapping from simple hazard concept into risk based idea. By applying it to Nakdong River basin, the flood vulnerability indices were estimated to draw flood risk maps subdivided into administrative districts. The result of this study can be applied to establish the disaster prevention measures and priority decision of disaster prevention project.