• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Error estimate

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A Spatial Error Concealment Technique with Low Complexity for Intra-frame in the H.264 Standard (H.264 인트라 프레임을 위한 저복잡도(低複雜度) 공간적 에러은닉 기법)

  • Kim Dong-Hyung;Cho Sang-Hyup;Jeong Je-Chang
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.31 no.5C
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    • pp.503-511
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    • 2006
  • H.264 adopts new coding tools such as intra-prediction, loop filter, etc. The adoption of these tools enables an H.264-coded bitstream to have more information compared with previous standards. In this paper we proposed an effective spatial error concealment method for H.264. Among the information included in an H.264-coded bitstream, we use intra-mode for recovering a damaged block. This is because prediction direction in intra-mode is highly correlated to the edge direction of a lost macroblock. We first estimate the edge direction using intra-modes of blocks adjacent to a lost macroblock, and classify the area in a damaged macroblock into the edge and the flat area. And then our method recovers pixel values in the edge area using edge-directed interpolation, and recovers pixel values in the flat area using weighted interpolation. Simulation results show the proposed method yields better video quality than conventional approaches by 0.35 to 5.48 dB.

Advanced Forecasting Approach to Improve Uncertainty of Solar Irradiance Associated with Aerosol Direct Effects

  • Kim, Dong Hyeok;Yoo, Jung Woo;Lee, Hwa Woon;Park, Soon Young;Kim, Hyun Goo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.26 no.10
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    • pp.1167-1180
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    • 2017
  • Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are essential for forecasting one-day-ahead solar irradiance. In order to evaluate the performance of the WRF in forecasting solar irradiance over the Korean Peninsula, we compared WRF prediction data from 2008 to 2010 corresponding to weather observation data (OBS) from the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The WRF model showed poor performance at polluted regions such as Seoul and Suwon where the relative Root Mean Square Error (rRMSE) is over 30%. Predictions by the WRF model alone had a large amount of potential error because of the lack of actual aerosol radiative feedbacks. For the purpose of reducing this error induced by atmospheric particles, i.e., aerosols, the WRF model was coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The coupled system makes it possible to estimate the radiative feedbacks of aerosols on the solar irradiance. As a result, the solar irradiance estimated by the coupled system showed a strong dependence on both the aerosol spatial distributions and the associated optical properties. In the NF (No Feedback) case, which refers to the WRF-only stimulated system without aerosol feedbacks, the GHI was overestimated by $50-200W\;m^{-2}$ compared with OBS derived values at each site. In the YF (Yes Feedback) case, in contrast, which refers to the WRF-CMAQ two-way coupled system, the rRMSE was significantly improved by 3.1-3.7% at Suwon and Seoul where the Particulate Matter (PM) concentrations, specifically, those related to the $PM_{10}$ size fraction, were over $100{\mu}g\;m^{-3}$. Thus, the coupled system showed promise for acquiring more accurate solar irradiance forecasts.

Estimating the unconfined compression strength of low plastic clayey soils using gene-expression programming

  • Muhammad Naqeeb Nawaz;Song-Hun Chong;Muhammad Muneeb Nawaz;Safeer Haider;Waqas Hassan;Jin-Seop Kim
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2023
  • The unconfined compression strength (UCS) of soils is commonly used either before or during the construction of geo-structures. In the pre-design stage, UCS as a mechanical property is obtained through a laboratory test that requires cumbersome procedures and high costs from in-situ sampling and sample preparation. As an alternative way, the empirical model established from limited testing cases is used to economically estimate the UCS. However, many parameters affecting the 1D soil compression response hinder employing the traditional statistical analysis. In this study, gene expression programming (GEP) is adopted to develop a prediction model of UCS with common affecting soil properties. A total of 79 undisturbed soil samples are collected, of which 54 samples are utilized for the generation of a predictive model and 25 samples are used to validate the proposed model. Experimental studies are conducted to measure the unconfined compression strength and basic soil index properties. A performance assessment of the prediction model is carried out using statistical checks including the correlation coefficient (R), the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), the relatively squared error (RSE), and external criteria checks. The prediction model has achieved excellent accuracy with values of R, RMSE, MAE, and RSE of 0.98, 10.01, 7.94, and 0.03, respectively for the training data and 0.92, 19.82, 14.56, and 0.15, respectively for the testing data. From the sensitivity analysis and parametric study, the liquid limit and fine content are found to be the most sensitive parameters whereas the sand content is the least critical parameter.

Bond strength prediction of spliced GFRP bars in concrete beams using soft computing methods

  • Shahri, Saeed Farahi;Mousavi, Seyed Roohollah
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.305-317
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    • 2021
  • The bond between the concrete and bar is a main factor affecting the performance of the reinforced concrete (RC) members, and since the steel corrosion reduces the bond strength, studying the bond behavior of concrete and GFRP bars is quite necessary. In this research, a database including 112 concrete beam test specimens reinforced with spliced GFRP bars in the splitting failure mode has been collected and used to estimate the concrete-GFRP bar bond strength. This paper aims to accurately estimate the bond strength of spliced GFRP bars in concrete beams by applying three soft computing models including multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), Kriging, and M5 model tree. Since the selection of regularization parameters greatly affects the fitting of MARS, Kriging, and M5 models, the regularization parameters have been so optimized as to maximize the training data convergence coefficient. Three hybrid model coupling soft computing methods and genetic algorithm is proposed to automatically perform the trial and error process for finding appropriate modeling regularization parameters. Results have shown that proposed models have significantly increased the prediction accuracy compared to previous models. The proposed MARS, Kriging, and M5 models have improved the convergence coefficient by about 65, 63 and 49%, respectively, compared to the best previous model.

Probability-based prediction of residual displacement for SDOF using nonlinear static analysis

  • Feng, Zhibin;Gong, Jinxin
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.571-584
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    • 2022
  • The residual displacement ratio (RDRs) response spectra have been generally used as an important means to evaluate the post-earthquake repairability, and the ratios of residual to maximum inelastic displacement are considered to be more appropriate for development of the spectra. This methodology, however, assumes that the expected residual displacement can be computed as the product of the RDRs and maximum inelastic displacement, without considering the correlation between these two variables, which inevitably introduces potential systematic error. For providing an adequately accurate estimate of residual displacement, while accounting for the collapse resistance performance prior to the repairability evaluation, a probability-based procedure to estimate the residual displacement demands using the nonlinear static analysis (NSA) is developed for single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems. To this end, the energy-based equivalent damping ratio used for NSA is revised to obtain the maximum displacement coincident with the nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA) results in the mean sense. Then, the possible systematic error resulted from RDRs spectra methodology is examined based on the NTHA results of SDOF systems. Finally, the statistical relation between the residual displacement and the NSA-based maximum displacement is established. The results indicate that the energy-based equivalent damping ratio will underestimate the damping for short period ranges, and overestimate the damping for longer period ranges. The RDRs spectra methodology generally leads to the results being non-conservative, depending on post-yield stiffness. The proposed approach emphasizes that the repairability evaluation should be based on the premise of no collapse, which matches with the current performance-based seismic assessment procedure.

Evaluation of short-term water demand forecasting using ensemble model (앙상블 모형을 이용한 단기 용수사용량 예측의 적용성 평가)

  • So, Byung-Jin;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Gu, Ja-Young;Na, Bong-Kil;Kim, Byung-Seop
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.377-389
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    • 2014
  • In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The concepts was demonstrated through application to observed from water plant (A) in the South Korea. Various statistics (e.g. the efficiency coefficient, the correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, and a maximum error rate) were evaluated to investigate model efficiency. The ensemble based model with an cross-validate prediction procedure showed better predictability for water demand forecasting at different temporal resolutions. In particular, the performance of the ensemble model on hourly water demand data showed promising results against other individual prediction schemes.

Direct displacement-based design accuracy prediction for single-column RC bridge bents

  • Tecchio, Giovanni;Dona, Marco;Modena, Claudio
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.455-480
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    • 2015
  • In the last decade, displacement-based (DB) methods have become established design procedures for reinforced concrete (RC) structures. They use strain and displacement measures as seismic performance control parameters. As for other simplified seismic design methods, it is of great interest to prove if they are usually conservative in respect to more refined, nonlinear, time history analyses, and can estimate design parameters with acceptable accuracy. In this paper, the current Direct Displacement-Based Design (DDBD) procedure is evaluated for designing simple single degree of freedom (SDOF) systems with specific reference to simply supported RC bridge piers. Using different formulations proposed in literature for the equivalent viscous damping and spectrum reduction factor, a parametric study is carried out on a comprehensive set of SDOF systems, and an average error chart of the method is derived allowing prediction of the expected error for an ample range of design cases. Following the chart, it can be observed that, for the design of actual RC bridge piers, underestimation errors of the DDBD method are very low, while the overestimation range of the simplified displacement-based procedure is strongly dependent on design ductility.

Cuffless Blood Pressure Estimation Based on a Convolutional Neural Network using PPG and ECG Signals for Portable or Wearable Blood Pressure Devices (휴대용 및 웨어러블 측정기를 위한 ECG와 PPG 신호를 활용한 합성곱 신경망 알고리즘 기반의 비가압식 혈압 추정 방법)

  • Cho, Jinwoo;Choi, Ahyoung
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we propose an algorithm for estimating blood pressure using ECG (Electrocardiogram) and PPG (Photoplethysmography) signals. To estimate the BP (Blood pressure), we generate a periodic input signal, remove the noise according to the differential and threshold methods, and then estimate the systolic and diastolic blood pressures based on the convolutional neural network. We used 49 patient data of 3.1GB in the MIMIC database. As a result, it was found that the prediction error (RMSE) of systolic BP was 5.80mmHg, and the prediction error of diastolic BP was 2.78mmHg. This result confirms that the performance of class A is satisfied with the existing BP monitor evaluation method proposed by the British High Blood Pressure Association.

Estimating the compressive strength of HPFRC containing metallic fibers using statistical methods and ANNs

  • Perumal, Ramadoss;Prabakaran, V.
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.479-488
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    • 2020
  • The experimental and numerical works were carried out on high performance fiber reinforced concrete (HPFRC) with w/cm ratios ranging from 0.25 to 0.40, fiber volume fraction (Vf)=0-1.5% and 10% silica fume replacement. Improvements in compressive and flexural strengths obtained for HPFRC are moderate and significant, respectively, Empirical equations developed for the compressive strength and flexural strength of HPFRC as a function of fiber volume fraction. A relation between flexural strength and compressive strength of HPFRC with R=0.78 was developed. Due to the complex mix proportions and non-linear relationship between the mix proportions and properties, models with reliable predictive capabilities are not developed and also research on HPFRC was empirical. In this paper due to the inadequacy of present method, a back propagation-neural network (BP-NN) was employed to estimate the 28-day compressive strength of HPFRC mixes. BP-NN model was built to implement the highly non-linear relationship between the mix proportions and their properties. This paper describes the data sets collected, training of ANNs and comparison of the experimental results obtained for various mixtures. On statistical analyses of collected data, a multiple linear regression (MLR) model with R2=0.78 was developed for the prediction of compressive strength of HPFRC mixes, and average absolute error (AAE) obtained is 6.5%. On validation of the data sets by NNs, the error range was within 2% of the actual values. ANN model has given the significant degree of accuracy and reliability compared to the MLR model. ANN approach can be effectively used to estimate the 28-day compressive strength of fibrous concrete mixes and is practical.

Nondestructive Prediction of Fatty Acid Composition in Sesame Seeds by Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy

  • Kim, Kwan-Su;Park, Si-Hyung;Choung, Myoung-Gun;Kim, Sun-Lim
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.51 no.spc1
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    • pp.304-309
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    • 2006
  • Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to develop a rapid and nondestructive method for the determination of fatty acid composition in sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) seed oil. A total of ninety-three samples of intact seeds were scanned in the reflectance mode of a scanning monochromator, and reference values for fatty acid composition were measured by gas-liquid chromatography. Calibration equations were developed using modified partial least square regression with internal cross validation (n=63). The equations obtained had low standard errors of cross-validation and moderate $R^2$ (coefficient of determination in calibration). Prediction of an external validation set (n=30) showed significant correlation between reference values and NIRS estimated values based on the SEP (standard error of prediction), $r^2$ (coefficient of determination in prediction) and the ratio of standard deviation (SD) of reference data to SEP. The models developed in this study had relatively higher values (more than 2.0) of SD/SEP(C) for oleic and linoleic acid, having good correlation between reference and NIRS estimate. The results indicated that NIRS, a nondestructive screening method could be used to rapidly determine fatty acid composition in sesame seeds in the breeding programs for high quality sesame oil.