• 제목/요약/키워드: Predictioin

검색결과 3건 처리시간 0.019초

혼돈이론을 이용한 일적산 일사량의 예측 (Prediction of Daily Solar Irradiation Based on Chaos Theory)

  • 조성인;배영민;윤진일;박은우;황헌
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2000
  • A forcasting scheme for daily solar irradiance on agricultural field sis proposed by application of chaos theory to a long term observation data. It was conducted by reconstruction of phase space, attractor analysis, and Lyapunov analysis. Using the methodology , it was determined whether evolution of the five climatic data such as daily air temperature , water temperature , relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed are chaotic or not. The climatic data were collected for three years by an automated weather station at Hwasung-gun, Kyonggi-province. The results showed that the evolution of solar radiation was chaotic , and could be predicted. The prediction of the evolution of the solar radiation data was executed by using ' local optimal linear reconstruction ' algorithm . The RMS value of the predicting for the solar radiation evolution was 4.32 MJ/$m^2$ day. Therefore, it was feasible to predict the daily solar radiation based on the chaos theory.

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Spot 용접이음재의 피로수명 예측에 관한 확률적 검토(II) : 피로강도 평가법의 신뢰성 검증 (Statistical Investigateion of Fatigue Life Predictioin of the Spot Welded Lap Joint(II) ; to verity reliabilty of fatigue strength estimatioin method)

  • 손일선;배동호
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제7권7호
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    • pp.242-249
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    • 1999
  • Spot welding is very important and useful technology in fabrication of an automobile body structure. Because fatigue strength of the spot welding point is however considerably lower than parent metal due to stress concentration at the nugget edge, accurate stress analysis and fatigue stength evaluation of spot welded lap joint are very important to valuate the reliability and durability of automobile body structure and to establish a criterion of long life fatigue design. Many invetigators have studied so far onsystematic fatigue strength evaluation with various methods. It is however necessary to verify their reliability and abailability for practical application to fatigue design of spot welded structure, Thus,in this study, fatigue strength evaluation methods of spot welded lap joint. which are the maximum principal stress method. the fracture and availability with the Weibull probability distribution. From the results, it was found that reliability and availability withe the Weibull probaility distribution. From the results, it was found that reliability and availability of the suggest fatigue strength estimation methods methods were higher than $\Delta$P-$N_f$ relation. However, among them , reliability of the maximum pricipal stress method was the highest.

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복수표면균열을 갖는 구조요소의 피로수명 예측 (Fatigue Life Prediction for Multiple Surface Cracks in Finite Plates)

  • 김재동;이종원;홍창호
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제33권4호
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 1996
  • 최근 선박, 해양구조물, 항공기 및 원자력 플랜트 등 대형구조물의 사용조건이 극도로 가혹해짐에 따라 이들에 대한 신뢰성 및 안전성 보장이 심각한 문제로 대두되고 있다. 이들 대형구조물에 있어, 파손사례의 대부분은 어떤 형태로든 피로현상과 관련된 것으로서 수명 및 잔여수명의 예측과 함께 안정성 평가기술의 확립이 절실히 요구되고 있다. 그러나, 실제 대다수의 결함은 복수표면 균열 상태로 존재하며, 이들은 단일균열의 경우와는 달리 급속히 합체, 성장할 가능성이 높고 따라서, 관통수명 또한 짧아지며, 관통시 표면균열의 길이가 상대적으로 커져 불안정 파괴의 위험성도 그만큼 높아지게 된다. 본 연구에서는 평판 및 필릿 용접부에 존재하는 복수의 직렬표면균열을 대상으로 인접균열간 간섭효과, 합체현상을 고찰하여 피로균열 진전거동 및 피로수명 예측프로그램을 개발하고, 이를 기존의 실험결과와 비교, 평가하여 그 정도 및 실용성을 확인하였다.

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