• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predicting Presidential Election

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A Study on Predicting Presidential Election Results by Analyzing Twitter Message Contents: A Focus on the 18th Presidential Election in Korea (트위터 메시지 분석을 통한 선거 결과 예측 고찰: 18대 대선을 중심으로)

  • Lee, SeoYoung;Kwon, SangJib
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.174-186
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    • 2019
  • Twitter is very popluar with users who desire social interaction as it is a highly effective method of communicating compared to traditional communication platforms; and thus has garnered considerable interest from the academic community. This research reveals how election results can be predicted by the factors of total volume of messages, positive messages and negative messages tweeted about a candidate. Social matrix analysis revealed that the quantity of twitter messages was a strong predictor of election results in the 18th presidential election in Korea. In addition, more positive messages than negative messages about a candidate from twitter users recorded better results in the election. This research found that the total quantity of messages, positive messages, and negative messages as key factors for predicting election result. Future studies should investigate other SNS platforms to discover what is the most effective communication strategy on each platform.

A case study for alternative methods of election forecasting (선거예측의 대안적 방법에 대한 사례연구)

  • Ryu, Jea-Bok
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.499-509
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    • 2020
  • We compared and analyzed the relationship between vote intention, vote expectation, and party approval rate using the 19th Presidential Election and the 7th Nationwide Simultaneous Local Election (Regional Local Government Election) poll data. The case study provides an alternative method of predicting the winner using vote expectation and a party approval rate that can improve the accuracy of election forecasting.

An Analysis of the 2017 Korean Presidential Election Using Text Mining (텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 2017년 한국 대선 분석)

  • An, Eunhee;An, Jungkook
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2020
  • Recently, big data analysis has drawn attention in various fields as it can generate value from large amounts of data and is also used to run political campaigns or predict results. However, existing research had limitations in compiling information about candidates at a high-level by analyzing only specific SNS data. Therefore, this study analyses news trends, topics extraction, sentiment analysis, keyword analysis, comment analysis for the 2017 presidential election of South Korea. The results show that various topics had been generated, and online opinions are extracted for trending keywords of respective candidates. This study also shows that portal news and comments can serve as useful tools for predicting the public's opinion on social issues. This study will This paper advances a building strategic course of action by providing a method of analyzing public opinion across various fields.

Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

An estimation method for non-response model using Monte-Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm (Monte-Carlo expectation-maximaization 방법을 이용한 무응답 모형 추정방법)

  • Choi, Boseung;You, Hyeon Sang;Yoon, Yong Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.587-598
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    • 2016
  • In predicting an outcome of election using a variety of methods ahead of the election, non-response is one of the major issues. Therefore, to address the non-response issue, a variety of methods of non-response imputation may be employed, but the result of forecasting tend to vary according to methods. In this study, in order to improve electoral forecasts, we studied a model based method of non-response imputation attempting to apply the Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization (MCEM) algorithm, introduced by Wei and Tanner (1990). The MCEM algorithm using maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) is applied to solve the boundary solution problem under the non-ignorable non-response mechanism. We performed the simulation studies to compare estimation performance among MCEM, maximum likelihood estimation, and Bayesian estimation method. The results of simulation studies showed that MCEM method can be a reasonable candidate for non-response model estimation. We also applied MCEM method to the Korean presidential election exit poll data of 2012 and investigated prediction performance using modified within precinct error (MWPE) criterion (Bautista et al., 2007).