• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predicted Value

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An Empirical Model for Forecasting Alternaria Leaf Spot in Apple (사과 점무늬낙엽병(斑點落葉病)예찰을 위한 한 경험적 모델)

  • Kim, Choong-Hoe;Cho, Won-Dae;Kim, Seung-Chul
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.25 no.4 s.69
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    • pp.221-228
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    • 1986
  • An empirical model to predict initial disease occurrence and subsequent progress of Alternaria leaf spot was constructed based on the modified degree day temperature and frequency of rainfall in three years field experiments. Climatic factors were analized 10-day bases, beginning April 20 to the end of August, and were used as variables for model construction. Cumulative degree portion (CDP) that is over $10^{\circ}C$ in the daily average temperature was used as a parameter to determine the relationship between temperature and initial disease occurrence. Around one hundred and sixty of CDP was needed to initiate disease incidence. This value was considered as temperature threshhold. After reaching 160 CDP, time of initial occurrence was determined by frequency of rainfall. At least four times of rainfall were necessary to be accumulated for initial occurrence of the disease after passing temperature threshhold. Disease progress after initial incidence generally followed the pattern of frequency of rainfall accumulated in those periods. Apparent infection rate (r) in the general differential equation dx/dt=xr(1-x) for individual epidemics when x is disease proportion and t is time, was a linear function of accumulation rate of rainfall frequency (Rc) and was able to be directly estimated based on the equation r=1.06Rc-0.11($R^2=0.993$). Disease severity (x) after t time could be predicted using exponential equation $[x/(1-x)]=[x_0/(1-x)]e^{(b_0+b_1R_c)t}$ derived from the differential equation, when $x_0$ is initial disease, $b_0\;and\;b_1$ are constants. There was a significant linear relationship between disease progress and cumulative number of air-borne conidia of Alternaria mali. When the cumulative number of air-borne conidia was used as an independent variable to predict disease severity, accuracy of prediction was poor with $R^2=0.3328$.

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Comparison of Development times of Myzus persicae (Hemiptera:Aphididae) between the Constant and Variable Temperatures and its Temperature-dependent Development Models (항온과 변온조건에서 복숭아혹진딧물의 발육비교 및 온도 발육모형)

  • Kim, Do-Ik;Choi, Duck-Soo;Ko, Suk-Ju;Kang, Beom-Ryong;Park, Chang-Gyu;Kim, Seon-Gon;Park, Jong-Dae;Kim, Sang-Soo
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.431-438
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    • 2012
  • The developmental time of the nymphs of Myzus persicae was studied in the laboratory (six constant temperatures from 15 to $30^{\circ}C$ with 50~60% RH, and a photoperiod of 14L:10D) and in a green-pepper plastic house. Mortality of M. persicae in laboratory was high in the first(6.7~13.3%) and second instar nymphs(6.7%) at low temperatures and high in the third (17.8%) and fourth instar nymphs(17.8%) at high temperatures. Mortality was 66.7% at $33^{\circ}C$ in laboratory and $26.7^{\circ}C$ in plastic house. The total developmental time was the longest at $14.6^{\circ}C$ (14.4 days) and shortest at $26.7^{\circ}C$ (6.0 days) in plastic house. The lower threshold temperature of the total nymphal stage was $3.0^{\circ}C$ in laboratory. The thermal constant required for nymphal stage was 111.1DD. The relationship between developmental rate and temperature was fitted nonlinear model by Logan-6 which has the lowest value on Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The distribution of completion of each developmental stage was well described by the 3-parameter Weibull function ($r^2=0.95{\sim}0.97$). This model accurately described the predicted and observed occurrences. Thus the model is considered to be good for use in predicting the optimal spray time for Myzus persicae.

Comparison of Temperature-dependent Development Model of Aphis gossypii (Hemiptera: Aphididae) under Constant Temperature and Fluctuating Temperature (실내 항온과 온실 변온조건에서 목화진딧물의 온도 발육비교)

  • Kim, Do-Ik;Ko, Suk-Ju;Choi, Duck-Soo;Kang, Beom-Ryong;Park, Chang-Gyu;Kim, Seon-Gon;Park, Jong-Dae;Kim, Sang-Soo
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.421-429
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    • 2012
  • The developmental time period of Aphis gossypii was studied in laboratory (six constant temperatures from 15 to $30^{\circ}C$ with 50~60% RH, and a photoperiod of 14L:10D) and in a cucumber plastic house. The mortality of A. gossypii in the laboratory was high in the 2nd (20.0%) and 3rd stage(13.3%) at low temperature but high in the 3rd (26.7%) and 4th stage (33.3%) at high temperatures. Mortality in the plastic house was high in the 1st and 2nd stage but there was no mortality in the 4th stage at low temperature. The total developmental period was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (12.2 days) in the laboratory and shortest at $28.5^{\circ}C$ (4.09 days) in the plastic house. The lower threshold temperature at the total nymphal stage was $6.8^{\circ}C$ in laboratory. The thermal constant required to reach the total nymphal stage was 111.1DD. The relationship between the developmental rate and temperature fit the nonlinear model of Logan-6 which has the lowest value for the Akaike information criterion(AIC) and Bayesian information criterion(BIC). The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the 3-parameter Weibull function ($r^2=0.89{\sim}0.96$). This model accurately described the predicted and observed outcomes. Thus it is considered that the model can be used for predicting the optimal spray time for Aphis gossypii.

Evaluation of the quality of Italian Ryegrass Silages by Near Infrared Spectroscopy (근적외선 분광법을 이용한 이탈리안 라이그라스 사일리지의 품질 평가)

  • Park, Hyung-Soo;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Choi, Ki-Choon;Lim, Young-Chul;Kim, Jong-Gun;Jo, Kyu-Chea;Choi, Gi-Jun
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2012
  • Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) has become increasingly used as a rapid and accurate method of evaluating some chemical compositions in forages. This study was carried out to explore the accuracy of near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for the prediction of chemical parameters of Italian ryegrass silages. A population of 267 Italian ryegrass silages representing a wide range in chemical parameters and fermentative characteristics was used in this investigation. Samples of silage were scanned at 2 nm intervals over the wavelength range 680~2,500 nm and the optical data recorded as log 1/Reflectance (log 1/R) and scanned in intact fresh condition. The spectral data were regressed against a range of chemical parameters using partial least squares (PLS) multivariate analysis in conjunction with spectral math treatments to reduced the effect of extraneous noise. The optimum calibrations were selected on the basis of the highest coefficients of determination in cross validation ($R^2$) and the lowest standard error of cross validation (SECV). The results of this study showed that NIRS predicted the chemical parameters with very high degree of accuracy. The $R^2$ and SECV were 0.98 (SECV 1.27%) for moisture, 0.88 (SECV 1.26%) for ADF, 0.84 (SECV 2.0%), 0.93 (SECV 0.96%) for CP and 0.78 (SECV 0.56), 0.81 (SECV 0.31%), 0.88 (SECV 1.26%) and 0.82 (SECV 4.46) for pH, lactic acid, TDN and RFV on a dry matter (%), respectively. Results of this experiment showed the possibility of NIRS method to predict the chemical composition and fermentation quality of Italian ryegrass silages as routine analysis method in feeding value evaluation and for farmer advice.

Production Medium Optimization for Monascus Biomass Containing High Content of Monacolin-K by Using Soybean Flour Substrates (기능성 원료를 기질로 이용하는 Monacolin-K 고함유 모나스커스 균주의 생산배지 최적화)

  • Lee, Sun-Kyu;Chun, Gie-Taek;Jeong, Yong-Seob
    • KSBB Journal
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.463-469
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    • 2008
  • During the last decade, monacolin-K biosynthesized by fermentation of red yeast rice (Monascus strains) was proved to have an efficient cholesterol lowering capability, leading to rapid increase in the market demand for the functional red yeast rice. In this study, the production medium composition and components were optimized on a shake flask scale for monacolin-K production by Monascus pilosus (KCCM 60160). The effect of three different soybean flours on the monacolin-K production were studied in order to replace the nitrogen sources of basic production medium (yeast extract, malt extract and beef extract). Among the several experiments, the production medium with dietary soybean flour to replace a half of yeast extract was very good for monacolin-K production. Plackett-Burman experimental design was used to determine the key factors which are critical to produce the biological products in the fermentation. According to the result of Plackett-Burman experimental design, a second order response surface design was applied using yeast extract, beef extract and $(NH_4)_2SO_4$ as factors. Applying this model, the optimum concentration of the three variables was obtained. The maximum monacolin-K production (369.6 mg/L) predicted by model agrees well with the experimental value (418 mg/L) obtained from the experimental verification at the optimal medium. The yield of monacolin-K was increased by 67% as compared to that obtained with basic production medium in shake flasks.

Influence of Sulfur and Fluorine Compounds on the Growth and Yield of Rice Plants;I. Growth Retardation and Yield Reduction under Various Stressed Conditions in the Field (황화물(黃化物) 및 불화물(弗化物)이 수도생육(水稻生育)과 수량(收量)에 미치는 영향(影響);I. 오염지역(汚染地域)에서의 생육장해(生育障害) 및 수량감소(收量減少))

  • Park, Wan-Cheol;Shin, Eung-Bai;Kim, Kwang-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 1987
  • The study was performed to investigate the effect of gaseous emissions of sulfur dioxide and hydrogen fluoride on the growth of rice plants under stressed field conditions consisting of 88 industrial plants operating with 285 smoke stacks emitting pollutants. As for the relationship between yields and yield components it is believed that the panicles per hill is the single most important component affecting the rate of yield of the rice plant. Based on the standard partial regression coefficient analysis, panicles per hill has the largest contribution to yield and the average contribution of 54%. Other components such as spikelets per panicle, percent fertility and 1000 grain weight are also contributing factors to yield, although far less so. Fluorine content in the leaf appear to have more negative effect on panicles per hill, percent fertility and subsequent overall yield than does sulfur content in the leaf. It is constantly observed and interesting to note that fluorine and sulfur content in the leaf appears to have no effect on spikelets per panicle and 1000 grain weight. Reduction in yield seems to be affected mainly by panicles per hill which are, in turn, affected more by fluorine content in the leaf as demonstrated by the standard partial coefficient analysis. Regarding the prediction sum of the square of the regression equation, the lowest value was found when nine variables were used for the analysis. The variables taken into consideration were the monthly sulfur and fluorine content in the leaf as well as the monthly percent of leaf damage during the months of June, July and August. A significant correlation is found between the actual and predicted yields by the regression equations selected as a result of a prediction sum of the square analysis.

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A Fast 4X4 Intra Prediction Method using Motion Vector Information and Statistical Mode Correlation between 16X16 and 4X4 Intra Prediction In H.264|MPEG-4 AVC (H.264|MPEG-4 AVC 비디오 부호화에서 움직임 벡터 정보와 16~16 및 4X4 화면 내 예측 최종 모드간 통계적 연관성을 이용한 화면 간 프레임에서의 4X4 화면 내 예측 고속화 방법)

  • Na, Tae-Young;Jung, Yun-Sik;Kim, Mun-Churl;Hahm, Sang-Jin;Park, Chang-Seob;Park, Keun-Soo
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.200-213
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    • 2008
  • H.264| MPEG-4 AVC is a new video codingstandard defined by JVT (Joint Video Team) which consists of ITU-T and ISO/IEC. Many techniques are adopted fur the compression efficiency: Especially, an intra prediction in an inter frame is one example but it leads to excessive amount of encoding time due to the decision of a candidate mode and a RDcost calculation. For this reason, a fast determination of the best intra prediction mode is the main issue for saving the encoding time. In this paper, by using the result of statistical relation between intra $16{\times}16$ and $4{\times}4$ intra predictions, the number of candidate modes for $4{\times}4$ intra prediction is reduced. Firstly, utilizing motion vector obtained after inter prediction, prediction of a block mode for each macroblock is made. If an intra prediction is needed, the correlation table between $16{\times}16$ and $4{\times}4$ intra predicted modes is created using the probability during each I frame-coding process. Secondly, using this result, the candidate modes for a $4{\times}4$ intra prediction that reaches a predefined specific probability value are only considered in the same GOP For the experiments, JM11.0, the reference software of H.264|MPEG-4 AVC is used and the experimental results show that the encoding time could be reduced by 51.24% in maximum with negligible amounts of PSNR drop and bitrate increase.

Dose Alterations at the Distal Surface by Tissue Inhomogeneity in High Energy Photon Beam (조직 불균질성에 의한 고에너지 광자선의 선량변화)

  • Kim, Young-Ai;Choi, Tae-Jin;Kim, Ok-Bae
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.277-283
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    • 1995
  • Purpose : This study was performed to measure dose alteration at the air-tissue interface resulting from rebuild-up to the loss of charged particle equilibrium in the tissues around the air-tissue interfaces. Materials and Methods : The 6 and 10-MV photon beam in dual energy linear accelerator were used to measure the surface dose at the air-tissue interface The polystyrene phantom sized $25{\times}25{\times}5\;cm^3$ and a water phantom sized $29{\times}29{\times}48\;cm^3$ which incorporates a parallel-plate ionization chamber in the distal side of air gap were used in this study. The treatment field sizes were $5{\times}5\;cm^2,\;10{\times}10\;cm^2\;and\;20{\times}20\;cm^2$. Air cavity thickness was variable from 10 mm to 50 mm. The observed-expected ratio (OER) was defined as the ratio of dose measured at the distal junction that is air-tissue interface to the dose measured at the same point in a homogeneous phantom. Results : In this experiment, the result of OER was close or slightly over than 1.0 for the large field size but much less (about 0.565) than 1.0 for the small field size in both photon energy. The factors to affect the dose distribution at the air-tissue interface were the field size, the thickness of air cavity. and the photon energy. Conclusion : Thus, the radiation oncologist should take into account dose reduction at the air-tissue interface when planning the head and neck cancer especially pharynx and laryngeal lesions, because the dose can be less nearly $29{\%}$ than predicted value.

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An Assessment of Notice Exposure by Job and Dosimeter Parameters Setting in Automobile Press Factory (자동차 프레스 공정에 있어서 직무 및 누적소음기 설정치 차이에 따른 작업자의 소음노출 평가)

  • Jeong, Jee Yeon;Park, Seunghyun;Yi, GwangYong;Lee, Naroo;You, Ki Ho;Park, Junsun;Chung, Ho Keun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.190-197
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    • 2001
  • Noise-induced hearing loss(NIHL) was the highest rate (43.5%~58.5% from 1996 to 1998) of positive findings through specific medical program in Korea. There were much more NIHL at workers of automobile manufacturing factories than other manufacturing factories. The specific aim of the present study was to determine the noise exposure of automobile press lines, according to their job titles, press line types(auto, semiauto), dosimeter parameters setting. There were a total 11 press lines sampled at a automobile manufacturing company. Among those press lines, 10 press lines were autolines with acoustic enclosure, one semiauto press line was no aucostic enclosure Noise exposure data were sampled for an work shift using noise dosimeter, which recorded both time-weighted average(TWA) and 1-min average. The mean OSHA TWA(Korea TWA with threshold 90) was $80.7dB(A){\pm}4.7dB(A)$ for leader, $82.8dB(A{\pm}4.5dB(A)$ for pallette man, $76.7dB(A){\pm}4.3dB(A)$ for press operators, $76.6dB(A){\pm}5.6dB(A)$ for crane operators, $77.1dB(A){\pm}2.8dB(A)$ for forklift drivers, whereas the mean NIOSH TWA was $88.9dB(A){\pm}1.7dB(A)$ for leader, $89.6dB(A){\pm}2.1dB(A)$ for pallette man, $86.7dB(A){\pm}1.8dB(A)$ for press operators, $88.5dB(A){\pm}2.0dB(A)$ for crane operators, $87.7dB(A){\pm}1.0dB(A)$ for forklift drivers. While L10 for NIOSH TWA samples was 84.8 dB(A) ~ 87.3 dB(A), L10 for OSHA TWA samples was 69.5 dB(A) ~ 77.4 dB(A). L10 means that the TWA for 90% of the samples exceeded L10. Among OSHA TWA(Korea TWA with threshold 90) samples for pallette man, 7.7 % exceeded 90 dB(A), the OSHA permissible exposure level, but OSHA TWA samples for the other job titles didn't. Among NIOSH TWA samples, the samples over 85 dB(A), the NIOSH recommended exposure limit, was 100% (leaders), 83.3 %(operators), 97.4%(palletteman), 100%(forklift drivers), 91.7 %(crane operator). The results of One-way random effects analysis of variance models shows that the difference between job titles was significant by OSHA TWA(p<0.05), but not significant by NIOSH TWA(p>0.05). NIOSH TWA samples were significantly higher than OSHA TWA samples(P<0.05). Regression analysis was used to obtain relationships between OSHA TWA samples and NIOSH TWA samples. In this case the coefficient of determination = 0.90, which shows the high degree association between two methods. Regression equation, NIOSH TWA = 0.552 * OSHA TWA + 42.13 dB(A), shows that if OSHA TWA is known, NIOSH TWA can be predicted by the equation. The mean TWA difference between threshold 80 dBA and 90 dBA was significant(p<0.01). While the TWA noise exposures were 7.7% above the Korea(OSHA) PEL, they were more than 83.3% over NIOSH REL. Automobile workers were exposed to noise level that could be potentially damaging to their hearing. It found that there is approximately 25% excess risk of hearing loss even if a worker is protected to the PEL in according to NIOSH study.

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Wintering Population Change of the Cranes according to the Climatic Factors in Cheorwon, Korea: Effect of the Snow Cover Range and Period by Using MODIS Satellite Data (기후요인에 의한 철원지역 두루미류 월동개체수 변화 - MODIS 위성영상을 이용한 눈 덮임 범위와 지속기간의 영향 -)

  • Yoo, Seung-Hwa;Lee, Ki-Sup;Jung, Hwa-Young;Kim, Hwa-Jung;Hur, Wee-Haeng;Kim, Jin-Han;Park, Chong-Hwa
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.176-187
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we hypothesized that the size of wintering crane population would change due to the climate factors. We assumed that wintering population size would differ by climate values in January, which is the coldest period in year. Especially, White-naped cranes were able to choose wintering site between Cheorwon and other alternative place where snow coverage had low influence, differing from Red crowned cranes. For this reason, we predicted the population size of White-naped cranes would fluctuate according to the extent of snow coverage in Cheorwon. Therefore we used snow coverage data based on MODIS and climate data from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) that are generally used. We analyzed the crane's population size in Cheorwon in January from 2002 to 2014. The temperature in the Cheorwon increased from 2002 to wintering period in 2007~ 2008 and went down, showing the lowest temperature in 2011~ 2012. With this phenomenon, warmth index showed the similar pattern with temperature. Amount of newly accumulated snow (the amount of snow that fallen from 0:01 am to 11:29 pm in a day) was low after 2002, but rapidly increased in 2010~ 2011 and 2011~ 2012. The area of snow coverage rapidly declined from 2002 to 2005~ 2006 but suddenly expanded in wintering period in 2009~ 2010 and 2010~ 2011. Wintering population size of the White-naped cranes decreased as snow coverage area increased in January and the highest correlation was found between them, compared to the other climatic factors. However, the number of individuals of Red crowned cranes had little relationship with general climate factors including snow cover range. Therefore it seems that population size of the Red crowned crane varied by factors related with habitat selection such as secure roosting site and area of foraging place, not by climatic factors. In multiple regression analysis, wintering population of White-naped cranes showed significant relationship with logarithmic value of snow cover range and its period. Therefore, it suggests that the population size of the White-naped crane was affected by snow cover range n wintering period and this was because it was hard for them to find out rice grains which are their main food items, buried in snow cover. The population size variation in White-naped cranes was caused by some individuals which left Cheorwon for Izumi where snow cover had little influence on them. The wintering population in Izumi and Cheorwon had negative correlation, implying they were mutually related.