• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predicted Risk

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A Review of Quantitative Landslide Susceptibility Analysis Methods Using Physically Based Modelling (물리사면모델을 활용한 정량적 산사태 취약성 분석기법 리뷰)

  • Park, Hyuck-Jin;Lee, Jung-Hyun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.27-40
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    • 2022
  • Every year landslides cause serious casualties and property damages around the world. As the accurate prediction of landslides is important to reduce the fatalities and economic losses, various approaches have been developed to predict them. Prediction methods can be divided into landslide susceptibility analysis, landslide hazard analysis and landslide risk analysis according to the type of the conditioning factors, the predicted level of the landslide dangers, and whether the expected consequence cased by landslides were considered. Landslide susceptibility analyses are mainly based on the available landslide data and consequently, they predict the likelihood of landslide occurrence by considering factors that can induce landslides and analyzing the spatial distribution of these factors. Various qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques have been applied to landslide susceptibility analysis. Recently, quantitative susceptibility analyses have predominantly employed the physically based model due to high predictive capacity. This is because the physically based approaches use physical slope model to analyze slope stability regardless of prior landslide occurrence. This approach can also reproduce the physical processes governing landslide occurrence. This review examines physically based landslide susceptibility analysis approaches.

Latent Profile Analysis of PTSD symptoms and PTG among Adults in South Korea: the Differences in Binge Eating, Non-Suicidal Self-Injury, and Problem Drinking Behaviors (잠재프로파일분석(LPA)을 활용한 PTSD 증상과 외상 후 성장 수준의 양상: 폭식, 비자살적 자해, 문제성 음주행동에서의 차이)

  • DeokHee Lee;DongHun Lee;HayoungJung
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.325-351
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    • 2019
  • The present study examined patterns of co-occurrence between DSM-5 posttraumatic stress disorder(PTSD) symptoms and posttraumatic growth(PTG) among Korean populations(n= 860). Latent profile analysis was used to identify subclasses and suggested that the 3-class model fit best: (1) Low PTSD/Mild PTG group (2) Low PTSD/High PTG group; (3) High PTSD/High PTG group. Class membership was predicted by demographic variables, social isolation, and frequency of traumatic experiences. Classes also differed with respect to self-destructive behaviors(binge eating, non-suicidal self-injury, and problem drinking). These findings contribute to future research about the coexisting patterns of PTSD and PTG, and to identify high-risk individuals who suffer from trauma-related problems in clinical practice.

Mitral Annular Tissue Velocity Predicts Survival in Patients With Primary Mitral Regurgitation

  • You-Jung Choi;Chan Soon Park;Tae-Min Rhee;Hyun-Jung Lee;Hong-Mi Choi;In-Chang Hwang;Jun-Bean Park;Yeonyee E. Yoon;Jin Oh Na;Hyung-Kwan Kim;Yong-Jin Kim;Goo-Yeong Cho;Dae-Won Sohn;Seung-Pyo Lee
    • Korean Circulation Journal
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.311-322
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    • 2024
  • Background and Objectives: Early diastolic mitral annular tissue (e') velocity is a commonly used marker of left ventricular (LV) diastolic function. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic implications of e' velocity in patients with mitral regurgitation (MR). Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 1,536 consecutive patients aged <65 years with moderate or severe chronic primary MR diagnosed between 2009 and 2018. The primary and secondary outcomes were all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. According to the current guidelines, the cut-off value of e' velocity was defined as 7 cm/s. Results: A total of 404 individuals were enrolled (median age, 51.0 years; 64.1% male; 47.8% severe MR). During a median 6.0-year follow-up, there were 40 all-cause mortality and 16 cardiovascular deaths. Multivariate analysis revealed a significant association between e' velocity and all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.770; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.634-0.935; p=0.008) and cardiovascular death (aHR, 0.690; 95% CI, 0.477-0.998; p=0.049). Abnormal e' velocity (≤7 cm/s) independently predicted all-cause death (aHR, 2.467; 95% CI, 1.170-5.200; p=0.018) and cardiovascular death (aHR, 5.021; 95% CI, 1.189-21.211; p=0.028), regardless of symptoms, LV dimension and ejection fraction. Subgroup analysis according to sex, MR severity, mitral valve replacement/repair, and symptoms, showed no significant interactions. Including e' velocity in the 10-year risk score improved reclassification for mortality (net reclassification improvement [NRI], 0.154; 95% CI, 0.308-0.910; p<0.001) and cardiovascular death (NRI, 1.018; 95% CI, 0.680-1.356; p<0.001). Conclusions: In patients aged <65 years with primary MR, e' velocity served as an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths.

Different DLCO Parameters as Predictors of Postoperative Pulmonary Complications in Mild Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients with Lung Cancer

  • Mil Hoo Kim;Joonseok Lee;Joung Woo Son;Beatrice Chia-Hui Shih;Woohyun Jeong;Jae Hyun Jeon;Kwhanmien Kim;Sanghoon Jheon;Sukki Cho
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.460-466
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    • 2024
  • Background: Numerous studies have investigated methods of predicting postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) in lung cancer surgery, with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and low forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) being recognized as risk factors. However, predicting complications in COPD patients with preserved FEV1 poses challenges. This study considered various diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) parameters as predictors of pulmonary complication risks in mild COPD patients undergoing lung resection. Methods: From January 2011 to December 2019, 2,798 patients undergoing segmentectomy or lobectomy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) were evaluated. Focusing on 709 mild COPD patients, excluding no COPD and moderate/severe cases, 3 models incorporating DLCO, predicted postoperative DLCO (ppoDLCO), and DLCO divided by the alveolar volume (DLCO/VA) were created for logistic regression. The Akaike information criterion and Bayes information criterion were analyzed to assess model fit, with lower values considered more consistent with actual data. Results: Significantly higher proportions of men, current smokers, and patients who underwent an open approach were observed in the PPC group. In multivariable regression, male sex, an open approach, DLCO <80%, ppoDLCO <60%, and DLCO/VA <80% significantly influenced PPC occurrence. The model using DLCO/VA had the best fit. Conclusion: Different DLCO parameters can predict PPCs in mild COPD patients after lung resection for NSCLC. The assessment of these factors using a multivariable logistic regression model suggested DLCO/VA as the most valuable predictor.

Prediction of Life-expectancy for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on Prognostic Factors (간암 환자에서 예후인자를 통한 생존기간의 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Shim, Jae-Yong;Lee, Hye-Ree;Hong, Young-Sun
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.30-38
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    • 1998
  • Background : Hepatocellular carcinomoma is the 3rd most common malignancy and the 2nd most common cause of death in Korea. The prediction of life-expectancy in terminal cancer patients is a major problem for patients, families, and physicians. We would like to investigate the prognostic factors of hepatocellular carcinoma, and therefore contribute to the prediction of the survival time of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods : A total of 91 patients(male 73, female 18) with hepatocellular carcinoma who were admitted to the hospital between January and lune 1995 were entered into the study, and data were collected prospectively on 28 clinical parameters through medical obligation record. We surveyed an obligation and local district office records, and confirmed the surivival of patients till July, 1996. Using Cox-proportional hazard model, give the significant variables related to survival. These determined prognostic factors. Life regressional analysis was used, there were calculated predicted survival day based on combinations of the significant prognostic factors. Results : 1) Out of 91 patients, 73 were male, and 18 were female. The mean age was $56.7{\pm}10.6$ ears. During the study, except for 16 patients who could not follow up, out of 75 patients, the number of deaths was 57(76%) and the number of survivals was 18(24%). 2) Out of the 28 clinical parameters, the prognostic factors related to reduced survival rate were prothrombin time<40%(relative risk:10.8), weight loss(RR:4.4), past history of hypertension (RR:3.2), ascites(RR:2.8), hypocalcemia(RR:2.5)(P<0.001). 3) Out of five factors, the survival day is 1.7 in all of five, $4.2{\sim}10.0$ in four, $10.4{\sim}41.9$ in three, $29.5{\sim}118.1$ in two, $124.0{\sim}296.6$ in one, 724.0 in none. Conclusion : In hepatocellular carcinoma we found that the prognostic factors related to reduce survival rate were prolonged prothrombin time(<40%), weight loss, past history of hypertension, ascites, and hypocalcemia(<8.7mg/dl). The five prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life-expectancy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and may assist in managing patients with hepatocellular carcinomal.

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Analysis of Risk Factors and Effect of Vancomycin for Sternal Infection after Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (관상동맥우회술 후 흉골감염의 위험인자분석 및 반코마이신의 효과)

  • Baek, Jong-Hyun;Jung, Tae-Eun;Lee, Dong-Hyup;Lee, Jang-Hoon;Kim, Jung-Hee
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.381-386
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    • 2010
  • Background: Sternal wound infection (SWI) is an important complication after cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictors affecting sternal wound infection and preventive factors including short term Vancomycin therapy in patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Material and Method: A retrospective study was done using data collected from January 2001 through December 2007. This included 219 patients who had isolated CABG. The definition of SWI was documentation from a microbiological study and a requirement for simple closure or other surgical revision. Result: The overall incidence of SWI was 7.8% (n=17). The causative organisms were methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA, n=13), methicillin resistant Staphylococcus epidermidis (n=2), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (n=1), and Candida albicans (n=1). Ten cases had deep sternal wound infection with mediastinitis; 7 cases had a superficial wound infection. Infection-related mortality was low (1/17; 6%). Diabetes mellitus (p=0.006) and smoking history (p=0.020) were factors that predicted high risk. Short term use of vancomycin decreased the incidence of MRSA-associated SWI (p=0.009). For treatment, curettage and rewiring or flap were needed in most cases (88%, n=14). Conclusion: Patients who had diabetes mellitus and a smoking history need careful management. Short term use of vancomycin is effective for prevention of SWI with MRSA.

Crime Incident Prediction Model based on Bayesian Probability (베이지안 확률 기반 범죄위험지역 예측 모델 개발)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2017
  • Crime occurs differently based on not only place locations and building uses but also the characteristics of the people who use the place and the spatial structures of the buildings and locations. Therefore, if spatial big data, which contain spatial and regional properties, can be utilized, proper crime prevention measures can be enacted. Recently, with the advent of big data and the revolutionary intelligent information era, predictive policing has emerged as a new paradigm for police activities. Based on 7420 actual crime incidents occurring over three years in a typical provincial city, "J city," this study identified the areas in which crimes occurred and predicted risky areas. Spatial regression analysis was performed using spatial big data about only physical and environmental variables. Based on the results, using the street width, average number of building floors, building coverage ratio, the type of use of the first floor (Type II neighborhood living facility, commercial facility, pleasure use, or residential use), this study established a Crime Incident Prediction Model (CIPM) based on Bayesian probability theory. As a result, it was found that the model was suitable for crime prediction because the overlap analysis with the actual crime areas and the receiver operating characteristic curve (Roc curve), which evaluated the accuracy of the model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.8. It was also found that a block where the commercial and entertainment facilities were concentrated, a block where the number of building floors is high, and a block where the commercial, entertainment, residential facilities are mixed are high-risk areas. This study provides a meaningful step forward to the development of a crime prediction model, unlike previous studies that explored the spatial distribution of crime and the factors influencing crime occurrence.

A Study on Consumer's Emotional Consumption Value and Purchase Intention about IoT Products - Focused on the preference of using EEG - (IoT 제품에 관한 소비자의 감성적 소비가치와 구매의도에 관한 연구 - EEG를 활용한 선호도 연구를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Young-ae;Kim, Seung-in
    • Journal of Communication Design
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    • v.68
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    • pp.278-288
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of risk and convenience on purchase intention in the IOT market, and I want to analyze the moderating effect of emotional consumption value. In this study, two products were selected from three product groups. There are three major methods of research. First, theoretical considerations. Second, survey analysis. Reliability analysis and factor analysis were performed using descriptive statistics using SPSS. Third, we measured changes of EEG according to in - depth interview and indirect experience. As a result of the hypothesis of this study, it was confirmed that convenience of use of IoT product influences purchase intention. Risk was predicted to have a negative effect on purchase intentions, but not significant in this study. This implies that IoT products tend to be neglected in terms of monetary loss such as cost of purchase, cost of use, and disposal cost when purchasing. In-depth interviews and EEG analysis revealed that there is a desire to purchase and try out the IoT product due to the nature of the product, the novelty of new technology, and the vague idea that it will benefit my life. The aesthetic, symbolic, and pleasure factors, which are sub - elements of emotional consumption value, were found to have a great influence. This is consistent with previous research showing that emotional consumption value has a positive effect on purchase intention. In-depth interviews and EEG analyzes also yielded the same results. This study has revealed that emotional consumption value affects the intention to purchase IoT products. It seems that companies producing IoT products need to concentrate on marketing with more emotional consumption value.

Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

Association Analysis of MUC5AC Promoter Polymorphism with Asthma (MUC5AC 프로모터의 유전자 다형성과 천식과의 연관성)

  • Han, Seon-Sook;Sung, Ji Hyun;Lee, Mi-Eun;Lee, Seung-Joon;Lee, Sung Joon;Kim, Woo Jin
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.63 no.3
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    • pp.235-241
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    • 2007
  • Background: Airway mucus hypersecretion plays an important role in the pathogenesis of asthma, and is associated with the induction of MUC5AC expression in airway secretion. The MUC5AC gene is highly polymorphic; however, there are few studies about the association between the polymorphisms of the MUC5AC gene and asthma susceptibility or asthma phenotypes. We have investigated the association of MUC5AC promoter polymorphisms with the risk of asthma and asthma phenotypes. Methods: We determined the genotypes of the MUC5AC promoter (-1274G>A) in 78 asthma patients and in 78 age, sex-matched control individuals in the Korean population. Genomic DNAs from blood were analyzed by PCR and RFLP (restriction fragment length polymorphism) determination. We examined $FEV_1$, total eosinophil count, serum IgE level, $PC_{20}$ and the presence of atopy (by a skin test) in asthma patients. Results: The mean age of the patients was $47.7{\pm}16.1$ years and 38.5% were men, and the mean $FEV_1$ was $84.4{\pm}22.3%$ of predicted in the asthma patients. The -1274G>A polymorphism of the MUC5AC promoter in asthma patients was not significantly different as compared with normal individuals (GG 57.7%, AG 34.6% and AA 7.7% in asthma patients vs. GG 56.4%, AG 38.5% and AA 5.1% in control subject, p = 0.752, Cod). Several clinical parameters in asthma patients such as $FEV_1$, total eosinophil count, serum IgE level, $PC_{20}$ and the presence of atopy, were not associated with the -1274G>A polymorphism of the MUC5AC promoter. Conclusion: The -1274G>A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequency of the MUC5AC promoter was not associated with asthma in a Korean population.