• 제목/요약/키워드: Predictability

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Diagnostic keys of the overcoming risk factors and achieving predictable esthetics in anterior single implant

  • Choi, Geun-Bae;Yang, Jong-Sook
    • 대한심미치과학회지
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.7-18
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    • 2007
  • There is now an increased demand for harmony between the peri-implant gingiva and adjacent dentition. In the event of a pending loss of a single tooth in the aesthetic zone with healthy periodontium, expectation for optimal gingival and prosthodontic aesthetics are often very high. Unfortunately, bone resorption is common following the removal of an anterior tooth, compromising the gingival tissue levels for the eventual implant restoration. Also, improper implant placement and inadequate osseous-gingival support potentially deleterious aesthetic result. The creation of an esthetic implant restoration with gingival architecture that harmonizes with the adjacent dentitionis formidable challenge. The predictability of the peri-implant esthetic outcome may ultimately be determined by the patient's own presenting anatomy rather than the clinician's ability to manage state-of-the-art procedures. To more accurately predict the peri-implant esthetic outcome before removing a failing tooth, a considering of diagnostic keys is essential. This presentation addresses the useful diagnostic keys that affect the predictability of peri-implant gingival aesthetics and the overcoming of the risk factors in anterior single-tooth replacement; it also describes a surgical and prosthodontic technique in achieving a long term successful esthetic outcome. Proper diagnosis and understanding of the biological and periodontal variables of failing dentition and their response to surgical and prosthodontic procedures are the essence of predictability. Using a smart protocol that alters the periodontium toward less risk and more favorable assessment of the diagnostic keys before implant placement will provide the most predictable esthetic outcome. Simple diagnostic keys suggested this presentation are useful method to evaluate the overcoming of the risk factors in anterior single implant restoration.

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도시지역에 대한 환경용수의 계절전망 기법 개발 및 평가 (Development and Assessment of Environmental Water Seasonal Outlook Method for the Urban Area)

  • 소재민;김정배;배덕효
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 2018
  • There are 34 mega-cities with a population of more than 10 million in the world. One of the highly populated cities in the world is Seoul in South Korea. Seoul receives $1,140million\;m^3/year$ for domestic water, $2million\;m^3/year$ for agricultural water and $6million\;m^3/year$ for industrial water from multi-purpose dams. The maintenance water used for water conservation, ecosystem protection and landscape preservation is $158million\;m^3/year$, which is supplied from natural precipitation. Recently, the use of the other water for preservation of water quality and ecosystem protection in urban areas is increasing. The objectives of this study is to develop the seasonal forecast method of environmental water in urban areas (Seoul, Daejeon, Gwangju, Busan) and to evaluate its predictability. In order to estimate the seasonal outlook information of environmental water from Land Surface Model (LSM), we used the observation weather data of Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) sites, forecast and hind cast data of GloSea5. In the past 30 years (1985 ~ 2014), precipitation, natural runoff and Urban Environmental Water Index (UEI) were analyzed in the 4 urban areas. We calculated the seasonal outlook values of the UEI based on GloSea5 for 2015 year and compared it to UEI based on observed data. The seasonal outlook of UEI in urban areas presented high predictability in the spring, autumn and winter. Studies have depicted that the proposed UEI will be useful for evaluating urban environmental water and the predictability of UEI using GloSea5 forecast data is likely to be high in the order of autumn, winter, spring and summer.

기상청 고해상도 국지 앙상블 예측 시스템 구축 및 성능 검증 (Development and Evaluation of the High Resolution Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System in the Korea Meteorological Administration)

  • 김세현;김현미;계준경;이승우
    • 대기
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2015
  • Predicting the location and intensity of precipitation still remains a main issue in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Resolution is a very important component of precipitation forecasts in NWP. Compared with a lower resolution model, a higher resolution model can predict small scale (i.e., storm scale) precipitation and depict convection structures more precisely. In addition, an ensemble technique can be used to improve the precipitation forecast because it can estimate uncertainties associated with forecasts. Therefore, NWP using both a higher resolution model and ensemble technique is expected to represent inherent uncertainties of convective scale motion better and lead to improved forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system for the convective-scale (i.e., high resolution) operational Unified Model (UM) in Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was developed and evaluated for the ensemble forecasts during August 2012. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system developed showed good skill in predicting precipitation, wind, and temperature at the surface as well as meteorological variables at 500 and 850 hPa. To investigate which combination of horizontal resolution and ensemble member is most skillful, the system was run with three different horizontal resolutions (1.5, 2, and 3 km) and ensemble members (8, 12, and 16), and the forecasts from the experiments were evaluated. To assess the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) skill of the system, the precipitation forecasts for two heavy rainfall cases during the study period were analyzed using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and Probability Matching (PM) method. The PM method was effective in representing the intensity of precipitation and the FSS was effective in verifying the precipitation forecast for the high resolution limited area ensemble prediction system in KMA.

고객 충성도 예측력 제고를 위한 측정방법(CFM) 비교연구 (Comparative Analysis of Customer Feedback Metrics for Improving Predictability of Customer Loyalty)

  • 김정래;정병규
    • 벤처혁신연구
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    • 제1권2호
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2018
  • 고객충성도에 영향을 미치는 변인과 이들 변인의 예측력 향상을 위한 노력은 계속되어져 왔다. 고객만족도가 고객 충성도에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 간주되어왔으나, 2003년 고객추천지수(NPS)가 나오면서 이 방법의 예측력이 우수하다는 연구 결과도 많이 나왔다. 이후 2010년 고객노력지수(CES)가 등장하면서 서비스 기업의 충성도 예측은 고객노력지수가 우수하다는 주장도 있어왔다. 이에 본 연구에서는 3가지 측정방법을 기본가정, 시간관점, 측정항목, 활용 목적에 따른 유용성, 적용분야, 적용한계라는 6가지 기준으로 비교 분석하였다. 지금까지의 실증 연구결과를 보면 어느 하나의 방법이 모든 산업분야에 걸쳐 예측력이 뛰어나다고 할 수 없으며 산업별, 활용 목적에 따라 측정 방법을 단독 혹은 혼합해서 사용하는 것이 예측력을 보다 제고 할 수 있다.

NCEP 계절예측시스템과 정준상관분석을 이용한 북동아시아 여름철 강수의 예측 (A Prediction of Northeast Asian Summer Precipitation Using the NCEP Climate Forecast System and Canonical Correlation Analysis)

  • 권민호;이강진
    • 한국지구과학회지
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.88-94
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    • 2014
  • 현재 최고 수준의 대순환 모형에서 북동아시아 여름몬순 강도의 계절예측 능력은 낮으나 북서태평양 아열대 고기압 강도의 예측률은 상대적으로 높다. 북서태평양 아열대 고기압은 북서태평양 지역 및 동아시아 지역에서 가장 주된 기후 변동성이다. 본 연구에서 NCEP 계절예측시스템에서 예측된 북서태평양 아열대 고기압의 예측성에 대해 논의될 것이다. 한편, 북동아시아 여름몬순의 경년변동성은 북서태평양 아열대 고기압과 높은 상관성을 가지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이 관계에 근거하여, NCEP 계절예측시스템과 정준상관분석을 이용한 계절예측 모형을 제안하고 그 예측률을 평가하였다. 이 방법은 북동아시아 지역 여름철 강수량 편차에 대한 계절예측에 있어 통계적으로 유의한 예측성능을 제공한다.

소프트웨어 프로세스 개선 노력이 국내 SI 업체의 경쟁우위에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 (A Study on Effects of Software Process Improvement for Competitive Advantage)

  • 김성희;이경아;이주헌
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • 제9권3호
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    • pp.113-127
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    • 2002
  • The effort for software process improvement is lately surging its interest though it does not satisfy both developer and receiver In terms of low productivity, quality, delay and increasing cost. According to current research, software process improvement contributes to improvement of productivity, its Duality, reduction of development time and cost, and the prediction of the time limit for delivery, which means software process improvement affects competitive advantage among developers. The latest research is whether the investment for information technology substantially had effect on improvement of productivity. That is, software process improvement and maturity of software industries has influence upon economic efficiency and as a result, it plays an important role in whole industries. This research is that how does software process improvement using CMM (Capability Maturity Model) and SPICE (Software Process Improvement and Capability dEtermination) have a effect on factors of software engineering, and how does it have influence upon competitive advantage among SI firms. For this research, reusability, customizability, participation, and review & inspection are set to independent variable and process flexibility and process predictability are set to mediate Variable. Finally, competitive advantage among SI firms Is set to dependent variable. The targets for survey are laborers who work for SI firms. The result of this research is as follows: 1 ) Reusability, Customizability and participation is not rejected but review and Inspection is rejected in process flexibility which has significant level 0.05. 2) Reusability, Customizability and participation is not rejected but review and inspection Is rejected in process predictability which has significant level 0.05. 3) Process flexibility is not rejected and process predictability Is rejected in the competitive advantage of 51 industries which has significant level 0.05

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폭설에 대한 예측가능성 연구 - 2008년 3월 4일 서울지역 폭설사례를 중심으로 - (On the Predictability of Heavy Snowfall Event in Seoul, Korea at Mar. 04, 2008)

  • 류찬수;서애숙;박종서;정효상
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제18권11호
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    • pp.1271-1281
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    • 2009
  • The heavy snowfall event over the eastern part of Seoul, Korea on Mar. 04, 2008 has been abruptly occurred after the frontal system with the heavy snowfall event had been past over the Korean peninsula on Mar. 03, 2008. Therefore, this heavy snowfall event couldn't be predicted well by any means of theoretical knowledges and models. After the cold front passed by, the cold air mass was flown over the peninsula immediately and became clear expectedly except the eastern part and southwestern part of peninsula with some large amount of snowfall. Even though the wide and intense massive cold anticyclone was expanded and enhanced by the lowest tropospheric baroclinicity over the Yellow Sea, but the intrusion and eastward movement of cold air to Seoul was too slow than normally predicted. Using the data of numerical model, satellite and radar images, three dimensional analysis Products(KLAPS : Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) of the environmental conditions of this event such as temperature, equivalent potential temperature, wind, vertical circulation, divergence, moisture flux divergence and relative vorticity could be analyzed precisely. Through the analysis of this event, the formation and westward advection of lower cyclonic circulation with continuously horizontal movement of air into the eastern part of Seoul by the analyses of KLAPS fields have been affected by occurring the heavy snowfall event. As the predictability of abrupt snowfall event was very hard and dependent on not only the synoptic atmospheric circulation but also for mesoscale atmospheric circulation, the forecaster can be predicted well this event which may be occurred and developed within the very short time period using sequential satellite images and KLAPS products.

실시간 CORBA의 우선순위 모델 구현 (An Implementation of Priority Model of Real-Time CORBA)

  • 박순례;정선태
    • 전자공학회논문지CI
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    • 제38권4호
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2001
  • 현재의 CORBA는 처음부터 비즈니스 환경의 클라이언트/서버 분산 컴퓨팅 환경 구축을 염두에 두고 주로 개발되어 왔기 때문에, 실시간성 지원이 필요한 분산 제어 시스템 등의 분산 실시간 시스템 구축에 사용되기에는 부족한 점이 많다. CORBA의 실시간성 개선을 위한 많은 연구가 진행되어 왔으며, 이러한 연구에 힘입어 최근 OMG에서는 실시간 CORBA 사양을 발표하였다. 실시간 CORBA는 기존 CORBA의 확장으로 명세되고 있으며, ‘종단간 예측성’을 지원하는 CORBA ORB 구현을 위한 표준을 제공하고자 한다. 종단간 예측성 지원을 위해, 실시간 CORBA는 우선순위 모델, 통신 프로토콜 구성, 쓰레드 관리 등을 지원하는 명세를 표준화하고 있는데, 이중 가장 중요한 요소는 클라이언트 요청처리에 우선순위를 부여하여 처리할 수 있도록 지원한 ‘우선순위 모델’ 명세의 지원이다. 본 논문은 실시간 CORBA의 우선순위 모델을 설계하고 구현한 결과를 제시한다. 구현은 오픈소스인 비실시간 ORB 인 omniORB2 (v. 3.0.0)을 기반으로 확장한 형태로 이루어 졌다. 구현된 우선순위 모델의 실시간성 개신 결과의 분석은 지연시간과 지터의 측정으로 성능과 예측성을 각각 비실시간 ORB와 비교하였다. 실험결과, 구현된 실시간 CORBA 우선순위 모델 구현의 실시간성 개선을 확인할 수 있었다.

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