• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predictability

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Progressive Design-Build: Its Functions as a Contracting Method and the Four Pillars of Project Success

  • Jeong, Euiseok;Anderson, Connor;Lin, Ken-Yu;Migliaccio, Giovanni C
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 2022
  • As a project delivery method, Design-Build (DB) has provided owner, architect, and contractor groups with a process of early design and rapid construction for the past three decades. Although there are many benefits to using standard DB, dissatisfaction has arisen due to limitations to innovate, limited owner involvement during design, and often lengthy procurement. Progressive Design-Build (PDB) has become an appealing alternative providing benefits not seen with standard DB. This paper investigates how PDB impacts a project and how it compares against standard DB; it also presents a proposed framework for evaluating the owner's responsibility and assessment of a project, which we named the "Four Pillars of Project Success". The four pillars are defined with respect to an owner's responsibility and assessment of a project, including project predictability, project risk, project schedule, and project cost. We conducted a literature review, examined several public project case studies, analyzed PDB project information collected by the Design-Build Institute of America (DBIA), and held stakeholder interviews with owners, contractors, and architects who have used both PDB and standard DB. This paper offers insight into PDB's structure and outcomes so an owner group can make an informed decision when considering PDB as their next construction contracting method.

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Clear Aligner Therapy: Evidence, Eloquence and Reality

  • Nikhilesh R. Vaid;Samar M. Adel
    • Journal of Korean Dental Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.115-127
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    • 2023
  • The demand for orthodontic clear aligner therapy (CAT) has increased significantly over the last decade, offering advantages over the fixed appliances (FA) including enhanced aesthetics, better hygiene and comfort, along with minimal restrictions on the patient's diet. Moreover, a marked improvement in the efficacy of tooth movement using aligners has been documented. On the contrary, there have been known limitations of CAT including the compliances issues and the apparent lack of efficacy for certain types of tooth movement such as closure of extraction space compared to FA. Thus, evidence-based evaluation of the accuracy of prediction of tooth movement with clear aligners and their ability to effectively perform major tooth and root movements compared to FA are crucial. Although several systematic reviews have investigated various aspects of the effectiveness of CAT, we are yet to obtain a rather conclusive answer to this question. The current review attempted to summarize the evidence-based findings of most systematic reviews about CAT available to date. Major issues regarding the predictability of tooth movement, the role of attachments and auxiliaries in improving the effectiveness of CAT, and the treatment outcomes in comparison to FA were investigated. Clinical recommendation have been also elaborated based on the interpretation of the findings of all systematic reviews included in this study.

A Comparative Study On Accident Prediction Model Using Nonlinear Regression And Artificial Neural Network, Structural Equation for Rural 4-Legged Intersection (비선형 회귀분석, 인공신경망, 구조방정식을 이용한 지방부 4지 신호교차로 교통사고 예측모형 성능 비교 연구)

  • Oh, Ju Taek;Yun, Ilsoo;Hwang, Jeong Won;Han, Eum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.266-279
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    • 2014
  • For the evaluation of roadway safety, diverse methods, including before-after studies, simple comparison using historic traffic accident data, methods based on experts' opinion or literature, have been applied. Especially, many research efforts have developed traffic accident prediction models in order to identify critical elements causing accidents and evaluate the level of safety. A traffic accident prediction model must secure predictability and transferability. By acquiring the predictability, the model can increase the accuracy in predicting the frequency of accidents qualitatively and quantitatively. By guaranteeing the transferability, the model can be used for other locations with acceptable accuracy. To this end, traffic accident prediction models using non-linear regression, artificial neural network, and structural equation were developed in this study. The predictability and transferability of three models were compared using a model development data set collected from 90 signalized intersections and a model validation data set from other 33 signalized intersections based on mean absolute deviation and mean squared prediction error. As a result of the comparison using the model development data set, the artificial neural network showed the highest predictability. However, the non-linear regression model was found out to be most appropriate in the comparison using the model validation data set. Conclusively, the artificial neural network has a strong ability in representing the relationship between the frequency of traffic accidents and traffic and road design elements. However, the predictability of the artificial neural network significantly decreased when the artificial neural network was applied to a new data which was not used in the model developing.

Predictability effects on speech perception in noise (SPIN) in Korean (한국어 소음속말인지에 나타나는 예측성 효과)

  • Lee, Sun-Young
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.129-157
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    • 2016
  • This study investigates speech perception in noise (SPIN) in Korean. A new type of Korean SPIN test was developed by adopting a similar format to the English SPIN test. The predictability effects, noise effects and their interactions were examined in order to verify the previous findings based on English. The data from 14 Korean adults collected with this new type of Korean SPIN test confirmed the previous findings: first, the participants' overall performance was better in low noise conditions than in high noise conditions. Secondly, there was a tendency for highly predictable words to be more accurately perceived than less predictable words especially in high noise conditions. The results were interpreted in such a way that the listeners actively used both types of information: acoustic information and contextual information in speech perception. When the acoustic property of the speech sound was degraded with noise, the listeners took advantage of the linguistic contextual information in their processing of the speech sound. The findings of this study conform to those of the previous studies based on the English SPIN test. In addition, a possible effect of the frequency of target word was also found, calling for further investigation in this field of research in Korean. Implications of the results were also discussed. (Cyber Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)

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Spatial Distribution of Major Soil Types in Korea and an Assessment of Soil Predictability Using Soil Forming Factors (한국 주요 토양유형의 공간적 분포와 토양형성요인을 이용한 예측가능성 평가)

  • Park, Soo-Jin;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Hong, Suk-Young;Park, Chan-Won;Zhang, Yong-Seon
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.95-118
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    • 2010
  • This study aims to investigate the spatial distribution of major soil types in Korea, and to assess the ability to predict soil distribution using environmental variables. A classification tree method was used to assess soil predictability. While the great soil groups can give more intuitive understandings on their spatial distributions, its predictability using environmental factors is much lower than that of the great groups. The most important factor to determine the spatial distribution of major soil types is the geomorphological characteristic of Korea that shows distinctive morphological difference between mountains and plains. Spatial distribution of climatic variables and catenary soil sequence along slopes play additional roles in determining the distribution of soil types. The classification tree models resulted in 35-75% of prediction accuracy, depends on the combination of different environmental variables brought in the models. While geomorphological variables are the best predictors for the great groups, climatic variables perform better for the great soil groups.

A Comparison of the Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Obtained by an Inverse Modeling System and Passenger Aircraft Based Measurement (인버스 모델링 방법을 통해 추정된 대기 중 이산화탄소 농도와 항공 관측 자료 비교)

  • Kim, Hyunjung;Kim, Hyun Mee;Kim, Jinwoong;Cho, Chun-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.387-400
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    • 2016
  • In this study, the atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations estimated by CT2013B, a recent version of CarbonTracker, are compared with $CO_2$ measurements from the Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by Airliner (CONTRAIL) project during 2010-2011. CarbonTracker is an inversion system that estimates surface $CO_2$ fluxes using atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations. Overall, the model results represented the atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations well with a slight overestimation compared to observations. In the case of horizontal distribution, variations in the model and observation difference were large in northern Eurasia because most of the model and data mismatch were located in the stratosphere where the model could not represent $CO_2$ variations well enough due to low model resolution at high altitude and existing phase shift from the troposphere. In addition, the model and observation difference became larger in boreal summer. Despite relatively large differences at high latitudes and in boreal summer, overall, the modeled $CO_2$ concentrations fitted well to observations. Vertical profiles of modeled and observed $CO_2$ concentrations showed that the model overestimates the observations at all altitudes, showing nearly constant differences, which implies that the surface $CO_2$ concentration is transported well vertically in the transport model. At Narita, overall differences were small, although the correlation between modeled and observed $CO_2$ concentrations decreased at higher altitude, showing relatively large differences above 225 hPa. The vertical profiles at Moscow and Delhi located on land and at Hawaii on the ocean showed that the model is less accurate on land than on the ocean due to various effects (e.g., biospheric effect) on land compared to the homogeneous ocean surface.

Feeding Trials to Compare Theoretical Accuracy between Apparent and True Metabolizable Energy Systems in Chick Diets (병아리 사료에서 일반대사에너지와 순대사에너지의 이론적 정확성 비교를 위한 실험)

  • 지규만
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.543-554
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    • 1992
  • True metabolizable energy(TME) is believed a better indicator for animal performance than apparent metabolizable energy (AME) for excluding the endogenous energy losses from excreta, However few researches have been conducted to compare superiority of any energy systems through practical animal feeding tests. Present study was to compare the energy systems in young chicks in terms of predictability of energy intake for the birds performances including body energy retention and of methodological accuracy by evaluating reproducibility and additi-vity of energy values of feed ingredients and compound diets. Five ingredients such as yellow corn wheat soybean meal fish meal and wheat bran were measured for their various biological energy values. in the first feeding trial chicks were restric-ted-fed the basal diet at 80, 60 and 40% on weight basis of the amount of feed ingested by chicks fed ad libitum the same diet. chicks in the second trial were also restricted-fed diets at levels of 80, 70, 60 and 50% on energy basis of the amount consumed by the basak duet group fed ad libitum The diets in the latter trial were however composed of differeent formulations from the basal diet. One-week-old Single Comb White Leghorn male chicks were individually alloted in a cage on 10 cages/treatment basis and fed the diets for 14 days. Individual carcass energy was measured after the feeding trials. Coefficients of variation of energy measurements were lesser for nitrogen-corrected AME and TME(AMEn & TMEn respectively) than AME and TME values suggesting taht reprodu-cibility of energy determinations by former systems could be better than the latters. The coeffi-cients for AME and TME were almkost of the same values. Additivity obtained by the rations between the calculated values and catual measurements appeared quite satisfactory for all the energy systems. Those of AME and TME however were relatively better than the other systems. Regression coefficient ${r}^2$ between energy intake by various systems and chick performances appeared higher for TME, AMEn and TMEn than AME implying that the former systems could provide better predictability for body weight gain and energy retention than the AME. The ${r}^2$ values for TME and AMEn particularly for body weight gain were on the average 0.967 and 0.960 respectively. In conclusion TME or AMEn can be recommended as choice for dietary energy system in terms of performance predictability of the birds and of procedural convenience for the measurements.

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Accuracy of CT : Evaluation of Bronchial Invasion of Lung Cancer (폐암의 기관지 침습에 관한 CT의 정확도)

  • Na, Jae-Boem;Choe, Kyu-Ok;Chung, Kyung-Young;Kim, Se-Kyu;Chang, Jun;Kim, Sung-Kyu
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.505-515
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    • 1997
  • Background : We assessed the accuracy of staging in evaluation of bronchial invasion, thus found the role of CT in patients who underwent resective surgery in primary lung cancer. Materials and Methods : Authors retrospectively analized the preoperative CT scans of 156 patients receiving pneumonectomy(n = 95) and lobectomy(n = 61). Among lobectomy patients, 7 patients subsequently performed pneumonectomy because of positive resection margin of bronchus in frozen biopsy. We also retrospectively analized CT scans of non-operated 60 patients who performed sufficient bronchoscopic biopsy. Bronchial wall thickness more than 3mm, irregular wall thickening and reduction of diameter by CT were defined as bronchial invasion. The pathologic examination of resection margin were positive in 20, stump recurrence occurred in 6 of the operated group, and the pathologic examination of biopsy of bronchial wall were positive in 34 of the non operated group, and these were an regarded as bronchial invasion. Results : The CT assessment of bronchial invasion revealed low sensitivity (11.5%), low positive predictability(38%), but high specificity(96%) and relatively high accuracy (84%) in the operated group and higher sensitivity (62%), higher positive predictability(95%) in non-operated group. Conclusion : In lung cancer patients who underwent operation, CT showed very low sensitivity and positive predictability in evaluation of bronchial invasion. Because the usefulness of CT in evaluation of bronchial invasion is limited, therefore aggressive fiberoptic bronchoscopic biopsy is thought to be necessary before surgical attempt.

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Boundary Line Analysis of Rice Yield Responses to Meteorological Conditions for Yield Prediction II. Verification of Yield Prediction Model (최대경계선을 이용한 벼 수량의 기상반응분석과 수량 예측 II. 수량예측모형 검증)

  • 김창국;한원식;이변우
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.164-168
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    • 2002
  • Yield prediction model of rice based on the boundary line analysis of the relationships between rice yield and meteorological conditions during rice growing period was reported in the previous report (Kim et al, 2001). Using the 15-year data of the 20 locations used for the model formulation and of the 12 locations not used, the model was tested for its predictability of location to location, year to year, and variety to variety variation of rice yield. The model predicted reliably the mean yield differences among locations, the yearly yield variation in each location, and the yield variation by variety. However, the model showed relatively lower predictability for the years of cool weather injury especially in mountainous locations. In conclusion, the model using boundary line analysis could be used to predict the yield responses to meteorological conditions during rice growth period and the locational, yearly, and varietal variations of rice yield. And the predictability of the present yield prediction model might be improved by including the boundary line analysis for the other factors such as soil characteristics, fertilization levels, etc.

Automated Scoring System for Korean Short-Answer Questions Using Predictability and Unanimity (기계학습 분류기의 예측확률과 만장일치를 이용한 한국어 서답형 문항 자동채점 시스템)

  • Cheon, Min-Ah;Kim, Chang-Hyun;Kim, Jae-Hoon;Noh, Eun-Hee;Sung, Kyung-Hee;Song, Mi-Young
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.5 no.11
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    • pp.527-534
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    • 2016
  • The emergent information society requires the talent for creative thinking based on problem-solving skills and comprehensive thinking rather than simple memorization. Therefore, the Korean curriculum has also changed into the direction of the creative thinking through increasing short-answer questions that can determine the overall thinking of the students. However, their scoring results are a little bit inconsistency because scoring short-answer questions depends on the subjective scoring of human raters. In order to alleviate this point, an automated scoring system using a machine learning has been used as a scoring tool in overseas. Linguistically, Korean and English is totally different in the structure of the sentences. Thus, the automated scoring system used in English cannot be applied to Korean. In this paper, we introduce an automated scoring system for Korean short-answer questions using predictability and unanimity. We also verify the practicality of the automatic scoring system through the correlation coefficient between the results of the automated scoring system and those of human raters. In the experiment of this paper, the proposed system is evaluated for constructed-response items of Korean language, social studies, and science in the National Assessment of Educational Achievement. The analysis was used Pearson correlation coefficients and Kappa coefficient. Results of the experiment had showed a strong positive correlation with all the correlation coefficients at 0.7 or higher. Thus, the scoring results of the proposed scoring system are similar to those of human raters. Therefore, the automated scoring system should be found to be useful as a scoring tool.