• Title/Summary/Keyword: Predict

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Development and assessment of pre-release discharge technology for response to flood on deteriorated reservoirs dealing with abnormal weather events (이상기후대비 노후저수지 홍수 대응을 위한 사전방류 기술개발 및 평가)

  • Moon, Soojin;Jeong, Changsam;Choi, Byounghan;Kim, Seungwook;Jang, Daewon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.11
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    • pp.775-784
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    • 2023
  • With the increasing trend of extreme rainfall that exceeds the design frequency of man-made structures due to extreme weather, it is necessary to review the safety of agricultural reservoirs designed in the past. However, there are no local government-managed reservoirs (13,685) that can be discharged in an emergency, except for reservoirs over a certain size under the jurisdiction of the Korea Rural Affairs Corporation. In this case, it is important to quickly deploy a mobile siphon to the site for preliminary discharge, and this study evaluated the applicability of a mobile siphon with a diameter of 200 mm, a minimum water level difference of 6 m, 420 (m2/h), and 10,000 (m2/day), which can perform both preliminary and emergency discharge functions, to the Yugum Reservoir in Gyeongju City. The test bed, Yugum Reservoir, is a facility that was completed in 1945 and has been in use for about 78 years. According to the hydrological stability analysis, the lowest height of the current dam crest section is 27.15 (EL.m), which is 0.29m lower than the reviewed flood level of 27.44 (EL.m), indicating that there is a possibility of lunar flow through the embankment, and the headroom is insufficient by 1.72 m, so it was reviewed as not securing hydrological safety. The water level-volume curve was arbitrarily derived because it was difficult to clearly establish the water level-flow relationship curve of the reservoir since the water level-flow measurement was not carried out regularly, and based on the derived curve, the algorithm for operating small and medium-sized old reservoirs was developed to consider the pre-discharge time, the amount of spillway discharge, and to predict the reservoir lunar flow time according to the flood volume by frequency, thereby securing evacuation time in advance and reducing the risk of collapse. Based on one row of 200 mm diameter mobile siphons, the optimal pre-discharge time to secure evacuation time (about 1 hour) while maintaining 80% of the upper limit water level (about 30,000 m2) during a 30-year flood was analyzed to be 12 hours earlier. If the pre-discharge technology utilizing siphons for small and medium-sized old reservoirs and the algorithm for reservoir operation are implemented in advance in case of abnormal weather and the decision-making of managers is supported, it is possible to secure the safety of residents in the risk area of reservoir collapse, resolve the anxiety of residents through the establishment of a support system for evacuating residents, and reduce risk factors by providing risk avoidance measures in the event of a reservoir risk situation.

Comparison between Uncertainties of Cultivar Parameter Estimates Obtained Using Error Calculation Methods for Forage Rice Cultivars (오차 계산 방식에 따른 사료용 벼 품종의 품종모수 추정치 불확도 비교)

  • Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2023
  • Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (Eem), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (Epm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (Epm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.

Health and quality of life for Korean people in ageing society (고령화 사회에서 한국인의 건강과 삶의 질)

  • Kyung-Hyun Suh
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.12 no.5_spc
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    • pp.133-147
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    • 2006
  • Korean society is rapidly becoming an ageing society. The Korean may have to live longer than did their parents. Increasing life expectancy and changing social structure, Korean people are getting interested in quality of life, and well-being is becoming a matter of concern. And, the Korean is fully aware of the importance of health for well-being or good life. This concern about health may bring about specific behaviors related to health. Although health care expenditures of Korea are currently smaller than those of other developed countries, it is continuously increasing. Large portion of increased amount of health care expenditures is to spend for disease prevention and expansion of long-term care facilities. Constructs of well-being of the Korean, not living in western culture, may be different from those of people living in western society. Health is not top-ranked to importance for quality of life in previous studies. It does not mean health isn't determinant factor for good life or well-being. Health is an essential element for well-being. It has been proved in several researches which examined poor quality of life caused by certain diseases and management of health-related quality of life. Some theories relate to health-seeking behaviors suggested the health belief or the attitude toward health, intention to do health behavior, perceived behavioral control, and self efficacy as important factors which could predict health-related behaviors. With getting older, people decline in physical and physiological functions and become vulnerable to chronic diseases. Quality of life depends on how to adjust to these changes in senescence. Social supports, especially supports from offspring, are very important to quality of life in senescence, because supports from offspring have influence on pride of the older, they may be afraid of disclose the conflict with their offspring. Avoiding self-disclosure exclude other source of social supports and harm individual's health, therefore psychological intervention is needed to. Increasing life expectancy of the Korean, Korean government has to provide numerous long-term care facilities as well as psychosocial supports. The Korean, so far, does not recognize that psychologist could render great service to promoting individual or community health and improving individual's quality of life. It is highly expected that psychologists take actively interested and involve in health related to quality of life.

The Development of an Aggregate Power Resource Configuration Model Based on the Renewable Energy Generation Forecasting System (재생에너지 발전량 예측제도 기반 집합전력자원 구성모델 개발)

  • Eunkyung Kang;Ha-Ryeom Jang;Seonuk Yang;Sung-Byung Yang
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.229-256
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    • 2023
  • The increase in telecommuting and household electricity demand due to the pandemic has led to significant changes in electricity demand patterns. This has led to difficulties in identifying KEPCO's PPA (power purchase agreements) and residential solar power generation and has added to the challenges of electricity demand forecasting and grid operation for power exchanges. Unlike other energy resources, electricity is difficult to store, so it is essential to maintain a balance between energy production and consumption. A shortage or overproduction of electricity can cause significant instability in the energy system, so it is necessary to manage the supply and demand of electricity effectively. Especially in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the importance of data has increased, and problems such as large-scale fires and power outages can have a severe impact. Therefore, in the field of electricity, it is crucial to accurately predict the amount of power generation, such as renewable energy, along with the exact demand for electricity, for proper power generation management, which helps to reduce unnecessary power production and efficiently utilize energy resources. In this study, we reviewed the renewable energy generation forecasting system, its objectives, and practical applications to construct optimal aggregated power resources using data from 169 power plants provided by the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy, developed an aggregation algorithm considering the settlement of the forecasting system, and applied it to the analytical logic to synthesize and interpret the results. This study developed an optimal aggregation algorithm and derived an aggregation configuration (Result_Number 546) that reached 80.66% of the maximum settlement amount and identified plants that increase the settlement amount (B1783, B1729, N6002, S5044, B1782, N6006) and plants that decrease the settlement amount (S5034, S5023, S5031) when aggregating plants. This study is significant as the first study to develop an optimal aggregation algorithm using aggregated power resources as a research unit, and we expect that the results of this study can be used to improve the stability of the power system and efficiently utilize energy resources.

Review of applicability of Turbidity-SS relationship in hyperspectral imaging-based turbid water monitoring (초분광영상 기반 탁수 모니터링에서의 탁도-SS 관계식 적용성 검토)

  • Kim, Jongmin;Kim, Gwang Soo;Kwon, Siyoon;Kim, Young Do
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.919-928
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    • 2023
  • Rainfall characteristics in Korea are concentrated during the summer flood season. In particular, when a large amount of turbid water flows into the dam due to the increasing trend of concentrated rainfall due to abnormal rainfall and abnormal weather conditions, prolonged turbid water phenomenon occurs due to the overturning phenomenon. Much research is being conducted on turbid water prediction to solve these problems. To predict turbid water, turbid water data from the upstream inflow is required, but spatial and temporal data resolution is currently insufficient. To improve temporal resolution, the development of the Turbidity-SS conversion equation is necessary, and to improve spatial resolution, multi-item water quality measurement instrument (YSI), Laser In-Situ Scattering and Transmissometry (LISST), and hyperspectral sensors are needed. Sensor-based measurement can improve the spatial resolution of turbid water by measuring line and surface unit data. In addition, in the case of LISST-200X, it is possible to collect data on particle size, etc., so it can be used in the Turbidity-SS conversion equation for fraction (Clay: Silt: Sand). In addition, among recent remote sensing methods, the spatial distribution of turbid water can be presented when using UAVs with higher spatial and temporal resolutions than other payloads and hyperspectral sensors with high spectral and radiometric resolutions. Therefore, in this study, the Turbidity-SS conversion equation was calculated according to the fraction through laboratory analysis using LISST-200X and YSI-EXO, and sensor-based field measurements including UAV (Matrice 600) and hyperspectral sensor (microHSI 410 SHARK) were used. Through this, the spatial distribution of turbidity and suspended sediment concentration, and the turbidity calculated using the Turbidity-SS conversion equation based on the measured suspended sediment concentration, was presented. Through this, we attempted to review the applicability of the Turbidity-SS conversion equation and understand the current status of turbid water occurrence.

Prediction of Necrotizing Pancreatitis on Early CT Based on the Revised Atlanta Classification (개정된 아틀란타 분류법에 근거한 초기 CT에서의 괴사성 췌장염의 예측)

  • Yeon Seon Song;Hee Sun Park;Mi Hye Yu;Young Jun Kim;Sung Il Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.81 no.6
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    • pp.1436-1447
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    • 2020
  • Purpose To investigate the clinical and CT features at admission to predict the progression to necrotizing pancreatitis (NP) in patients initially diagnosed with interstitial edematous pancreatitis (IEP). Materials and Methods Patients with IEP who underwent contrast-enhanced CT at admission and follow-up CT (< 14 days) were included (n = 178). Two radiologists performed a consensus review of follow-up CT scans and diagnosed the type of acute pancreatitis as IEP or NP. Laboratory findings at admission were recorded. Clinical, CT, and laboratory findings were compared between the IEP-IEP group and IEP-NP group using the chi-square test and the t-test. Multivariate analysis was also performed. Results There were 112 and 66 patients in the IEP-IEP and the IEP-NP groups, respectively. The proportion of patients with alcohol etiology was significantly larger in the IEP-NP group. Among the CT findings, the presence of peripancreatic fluid and heterogeneous parenchymal enhancement were more frequently observed in the IEP-NP group. Among the laboratory variables, serum C-reactive protein levels and white blood cell counts were significantly higher in the IEP-NP group. Multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of peripancreatic fluid and heterogeneous parenchymal enhancement were significant findings distinguishing the two groups. Conclusion CT findings, such as the presence of peripancreatic fluid and heterogeneous pancreatic parenchymal enhancement, may be helpful in predicting the progression to NP in patients initially diagnosed with IEP.

Utility of the 16-cm Axial Volume Scan Technique for Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring on Non-Enhanced Chest CT: A Prospective Pilot Study (비 조영증강 흉부 CT에서 관상동맥 칼슘스코어 측정을 위한 16 cm 축상 촬영 기법의 유용성: 전향적 탐색적 연구)

  • So Jung Ki;Chul Hwan Park;Kyunghwa Han;Jae Min Shin;Ji Young Kim;Tae Hoon Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.82 no.6
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    • pp.1493-1504
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    • 2021
  • Purpose This study aimed to evaluate the utility of the 16-cm axial volume scan technique for calculating the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) using non-enhanced chest CT. Materials and Methods This study prospectively enrolled 20 participants who underwent both, non-enhanced chest CT (16-cm-coverage axial volume scan technique) and calcium-score CT, with the same parameters, differing only in slice thickness (in non-enhanced chest CT = 0.625, 1.25, 2.5 mm; in calcium score CT = 2.5 mm). The CACS was calculated using the conventional Agatston method. The difference between the CACS obtained from the two CT scans was compared, and the degree of agreement for the clinical significance of the CACS was confirmed through sectional analysis. Each calcified lesion was classified by location and size, and a one-to-one comparison of non-contrast-enhanced chest CT and calcium score CT was performed. Results The correlation coefficients of the CACS obtained from the two CT scans for slice thickness of 2.5, 1.25, and 0.625 mm were 0.9850, 0.9688, and 0.9834, respectively. The mean differences between the CACS were -21.4% at 0.625 mm, -39.4% at 1.25 mm, and -76.2% at 2.5 mm slice thicknesses. Sectional analysis revealed that 16 (80%), 16 (80%), and 13 (65%) patients showed agreement for the degree of coronary artery disease at each slice interval, respectively. Inter-reader agreement was high for each slice interval. The 0.625 mm CT showed the highest sensitivity for detecting calcified lesions. Conclusion The values in the non-contrast-enhanced chest CT, using the 16-cm axial volume scan technique, were similar to those obtained using the CACS in the calcium score CT, at 0.625 mm slice thickness without electrocardiogram gating. This can ultimately help predict cardiovascular risk without additional radiation exposure.

A Flora of Vascular Plants in Boraebong (보래봉 일대의 관속식물상)

  • Ji Eun Kim;Young-Soo Kim;Jung Sim Lee;Ju Eun Jang;Hyeon Jin Jeong;Aleksey L. Kim;Sang-Kuk Han;Hee-Young Gil
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.35-61
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    • 2024
  • Floristic study can help to understand the current status of species diversity, evaluate and predict distribution changes of plants based on the specimens, and record the climate environment and biodiversity of the Korean Peninsula. Boraebong is an area that has plant resources of conservation value, but there is concern about artificial interference through trail and forest road. Therefore, this study aims to report the vascular plants of Boraebong based on voucher specimens and photos and to use them as baseline data to conserve biodiversity of Boraebong. Also, it will be useful to prevent additional influx of invasive species through comparison with previous studies. The investigation was carried out 11 times from April to September in 2022 and confirmed a total of 455 taxa including 87 families, 269 genera, 401 species, 13 subspecies, 35 varieties, 6 forms. In addition, we confirmed the 4 taxa of red list plants (EN 2 taxa, NT 2 taxa), 18 taxa of Korean endemic plants, and 102 taxa of floristic target species (V degree 1 taxon, IV degree 16 taxa, III degree 31 taxa, II degree 31 taxa, I degree 23 taxa). Furthermore, alien plants 17 taxa, invasive species 2 taxa, useful plants 439 taxa were confirmed in Boraebong. As the results of comparison with previous studies, 98 total taxa including 38 families, 76 genera, 86 species, 1 subspecies, 8 varieties, 3 forms were newly identified in this study.

Radiomics Analysis of Gray-Scale Ultrasonographic Images of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma > 1 cm: Potential Biomarker for the Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis (Radiomics를 이용한 1 cm 이상의 갑상선 유두암의 초음파 영상 분석: 림프절 전이 예측을 위한 잠재적인 바이오마커)

  • Hyun Jung Chung;Kyunghwa Han;Eunjung Lee;Jung Hyun Yoon;Vivian Youngjean Park;Minah Lee;Eun Cho;Jin Young Kwak
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.84 no.1
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    • pp.185-196
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    • 2023
  • Purpose This study aimed to investigate radiomics analysis of ultrasonographic images to develop a potential biomarker for predicting lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. Materials and Methods This study included 431 PTC patients from August 2013 to May 2014 and classified them into the training and validation sets. A total of 730 radiomics features, including texture matrices of gray-level co-occurrence matrix and gray-level run-length matrix and single-level discrete two-dimensional wavelet transform and other functions, were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used for selecting the most predictive features in the training data set. Results Lymph node metastasis was associated with the radiomics score (p < 0.001). It was also associated with other clinical variables such as young age (p = 0.007) and large tumor size (p = 0.007). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.687 (95% confidence interval: 0.616-0.759) for the training set and 0.650 (95% confidence interval: 0.575-0.726) for the validation set. Conclusion This study showed the potential of ultrasonography-based radiomics to predict cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC; thus, ultrasonography-based radiomics can act as a biomarker for PTC.

Analysis of the Impact of Satellite Remote Sensing Information on the Prediction Performance of Ungauged Basin Stream Flow Using Data-driven Models (인공위성 원격 탐사 정보가 자료 기반 모형의 미계측 유역 하천유출 예측성능에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Seo, Jiyu;Jung, Haeun;Won, Jeongeun;Choi, Sijung;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.147-159
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    • 2024
  • Lack of streamflow observations makes model calibration difficult and limits model performance improvement. Satellite-based remote sensing products offer a new alternative as they can be actively utilized to obtain hydrological data. Recently, several studies have shown that artificial intelligence-based solutions are more appropriate than traditional conceptual and physical models. In this study, a data-driven approach combining various recurrent neural networks and decision tree-based algorithms is proposed, and the utilization of satellite remote sensing information for AI training is investigated. The satellite imagery used in this study is from MODIS and SMAP. The proposed approach is validated using publicly available data from 25 watersheds. Inspired by the traditional regionalization approach, a strategy is adopted to learn one data-driven model by integrating data from all basins, and the potential of the proposed approach is evaluated by using a leave-one-out cross-validation regionalization setting to predict streamflow from different basins with one model. The GRU + Light GBM model was found to be a suitable model combination for target basins and showed good streamflow prediction performance in ungauged basins (The average model efficiency coefficient for predicting daily streamflow in 25 ungauged basins is 0.7187) except for the period when streamflow is very small. The influence of satellite remote sensing information was found to be up to 10%, with the additional application of satellite information having a greater impact on streamflow prediction during low or dry seasons than during wet or normal seasons.