• 제목/요약/키워드: Power Demand Variation Estimation

검색결과 7건 처리시간 0.018초

LSTM을 이용한 웹기반 수용가별 전력수요 변동성 평가시스템 (Web based Customer Power Demand Variation Estimation System using LSTM)

  • 서덕희;유준수;최은정;조수환;김동근
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.587-594
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구는 LSTM기반의 전력수요 변동성 평가 시스템을 제안하고 핵심모듈인 수요예측모듈의 정확성을 증명하기 보다는 실제 전력수요 모니터링 시스템 내 딥러닝을 이용하여 갑작스러운 전력패턴의 변화를 인지할 수 있는 모듈에 대한 활용 가능성을 확인하고자 한다. 웹기반 시스템에 모듈로 적용하여 관리자가 전력사용 패턴의 변동성을 판단할 수 있도록 시각화된 보고서를 제공하였다. 변동성 평가시스템의 구현 결과 관공서와 병원 등의 기관의 경우 전력사용량 데이터가 일정한 형태의 패턴을 보임을 확인하였다. 반면 주거시설과 같이 전력사용량이 상대적으로 낮은 지역의 경우 변동성 평가에는 적절하지 않았음을 확인했다.

기온예상치를 고려한 모델에 의한 주간최대전력수요예측 (Weekly maximum power demand forecasting using model in consideration of temperature estimation)

  • 고희석;이충식;김종달;최종규
    • 대한전기학회논문지
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    • 제45권4호
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    • pp.511-516
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    • 1996
  • In this paper, weekly maximum power demand forecasting method in consideration of temperature estimation using a time series model was presented. The method removing weekly, seasonal variations on the load and irregularities variation due to unknown factor was presented. The forecasting model that represent the relations between load and temperature which get a numeral expected temperature based on the past 30 years(1961~1990) temperature was constructed. Effect of holiday was removed by using a weekday change ratio, and irregularities variation was removed by using an autoregressive model. The results of load forecasting show the ability of the method in forecasting with good accuracy without suffering from the effect of seasons and holidays. Percentage error load forecasting of all seasons except summer was obtained below 2 percentage. (author). refs., figs., tabs.

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A Simple Power Management Scheme with Enhanced Stability for a Solar PV/Wind/Fuel Cell Fed Standalone Hybrid Power Supply using Embedded and Neural Network Controller

  • Thangavel, S.;Saravanan, S.
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제9권5호
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    • pp.1454-1470
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    • 2014
  • This paper propose a new power conditioner topology with intelligent power management controller that integrates multiple renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy and fuel cell energy with battery backup to make best use of their operating characteristics and obtain better reliability than that could be obtained by single renewable energy based power supply. The proposed embedded controller is programmed for maintaining a constant voltage at PCC, maximum power point tracking for solar PV panel and WTG and power flow control by regulating the reference currents of the controller on instantaneous basis based on the power delivered by the sources and load demand. Instantaneous variation in reference currents of the controller enhances the controller response as it accommodates the effect of continuously varying solar insolation and wind speed in the power management. The power conditioner uses a battery bank with embedded controller based online SOC estimation and battery charging system to suitably sink or source the input power based on the load demand. The simulation results of the proposed power management system for a standalone solar/WTG/fuel cell fed hybrid power supply with real time solar radiation and wind velocity data collected from solar centre, KEC for a sporadically varying load demand is presented in this paper and the results are encouraging in reliability and stability perspective.

제철용 고로의 유한요소해석 (Finite Element Analysis for Iron-Making Furnace)

  • 이만승;백점기;이제명
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 2004년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.245-253
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    • 2004
  • There has been recent demand for extending the life of age-degraded structures and equipment by such techniques as diagnosis, maintenance, safety assessment, and estimating residual life on iron-making plants and hydraulic, thermal, and nuclear power plants. These techniques take into account comprehensive scenarios that may cause malfunction and structural damage and allow an assessment of risk based on the likely scenarios. In particular the safety assessment and residual life estimation of age-degraded ships and equipment facilities require consideration of various factors such as mechanical and thermal stresses, corrosion, hardness, load variation due to changes of operating condition, crack generation and strength reduction of material by fatigue. In this study, a detail thermal stress analysis, one of useful techniques of safety assessment and maintenance, is performed on a blast furnace by using general FEM code (MSC/NASTRAN).

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농촌의 전력및 전기기기의 이용특성분석 (Analysis of the Utilization Characteristics of Electrical Power and Equipments on the Farms)

  • 박승우;류한열
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.3943-3955
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    • 1975
  • The purposes of this study are to evaluate the utilization characteristics of electrical power consumption, to grasp the present trends in the use of electrical equipments, to estimate the demand factor and load factor being held, and to evaluate the efficiency of electical uses for the recently electrified farms cultivating paddy rice. For the purposes, 109 sample farms located in eleven villiages electrified in six different years from 1968 to 1973, were chosen at random and investigated on 35 items concerning to electrical uses and wiring systems. The survey was carried out in 1975, in the vinicity of Suweon city. The results are summarized as follows: i) The average annual power consumption on sample farms is considered to be low, being 242.9 Kwh. in 1974, and varied according to the different electrified year and size of cultivated land, respectively. It has significant positive correlation to the area of farm, too. ii) Between the number of year of electrical uses and the power consumption, there is very significant positive correlation, which could be expressed as Y=43.041+16.108 X, where X represents the number of years of electrical uses. The annual increment of power consumption is much greater at the beginning of the electrification than that at the later years, its average being approximately 20 percent. However, it is recommended that any estimation of long-term increments should be carefully investigated. iii) The monthly power consumption varies considerably throughout a year, in which the heaviest farm load occurs in November. Observing the seasonal variation of consumption, the winter-time is the heaviest season while the summer is the lowest. The result implies house lighting is chief contribution to the present electrical consumption on the farms. Comparing the variation of monthly consumption ratios between the sample farms and industries, the electrical uses on the farms are independant of the industrial uses, and further, the agricultural uses are of inverse pattern to the farms from the results that there is negative correlationship between them, iv) The number of electrical equipments used on the farms are occupied chiefly by lighting sources. Next to the lighting sources, household appliances of small quantity and some motors are used. The mean electrical quantity is about 1, 127.4 watt, which corresponds to about 37.6 per cent to the contracted quantity. The composition of quantity is chiefly occupied by the electrical motor of about 1.5 hp., single-phased. The number of the annual utilization hours of each equipment is tabulated in Table IV-5. In contradiction to the high utilization of lighting sources and small household appliances, the motor is poorly used for approximately 22 hours in a year. v) More than 55 per cent of farms want to purchase new electrical equipments such as small household appliances and electrical motors in their number. The impulse of purchasing such items is stimulated by the contacts to the mass media and their knowledge on such equipments. Consequently, the increase of electrical uses could be prompted by such trials as education and demonstration. vi) The demand and load factors on the farms vary considerably according to the greater variation of the power consumption, daily or monthly. The daily demand factor is 22.4 per cent and load factor 18.6 per cent, while the annual demand factor is 1.3 per cent and load factor 70 per cent approximately. Therefore, the low efficiency of construction cost requires re-evaluation of the present contracted quantity of 3 Kw. or increase of electrical uses. vii) The electrical energy on the farms devoted chiefly to lighten the farm residences does not contribute to the farm incomes. Consequently, the cost of electrical consumption presses considerably upon the farm economy. Therefore, there is great need to build up the electrical uses on the farms through the development of new works and techinques to utilize any electrical equipments on the production of farm products. Further more, such the development should be related to increase the actual income of the farm consumers.

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Novel State-of-Charge Estimation Method for Lithium Polymer Batteries Using Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy

  • Lee, Jong-Hak;Choi, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.237-243
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    • 2011
  • Lithium batteries are widely used in mobile electronic devices due to their higher voltage and energy density, lighter weight and longer life cycle when compared to other secondary batteries. In particular, a high demand for lithium batteries is expected for electric cars. In the case of the lithium batteries used in electric cars, driving distance must be calculated accurately and discharging should not be done below a level that makes it impossible to crank. Therefore, accurate information on the state-of-charge (SOC) becomes an essential element for reliable driving. In this paper, a novel method for estimating the SOC of lithium polymer batteries using AC impedance is proposed. In the proposed method, the parameters are extracted by fitting the measured impedance spectrum on an equivalent impedance model and the variation in the parameter values at each SOC is used to estimate the SOC. Also to shorten the long length of time required for the measurement of the impedance spectrum, a novel method is proposed that can extract the equivalent impedance model parameters of lithium polymer batteries with the impedance measured at only two specific frequencies. Experiments are conducted on lithium polymer batteries, with similar capacities, made by different manufacturers to prove the validity of the proposed method.

전력 IT 시스템에서 복합방식의 태양광 발전량 예측 방법 제안 (Suggestion of a Hybrid Method for Estimating Photovoltaic Power Generation)

  • 주우선;장민석;이연식;배석찬;김원구
    • 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국해양정보통신학회 2011년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.782-785
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    • 2011
  • 최근 세계적으로 에너지원의 고갈, 전력 수요 증가, 기후 환경 변화에 대처하기 위해 신재생에너지원을 활용한 마이크로그리드 개발의 필요성이 점증하고 있다. 특히 태양광 발전은 댁내에 설치하기 용이한 가장 일반적인 신재생에너지원의 하나로써 각광받고 있다. 하지만 태양광은 기후 변화(일사량 및 일조량의 변화)에 따라 출력이 불안정하다는 단점으로 인해, 균일한 전력품질을 제공하기 위해 해결해야 할 기술적인 과제를 가지고 있다. 이 문제의 해결책으로써 에너지저장장치(ESS)이 고려되고 있지만, 이것도 용량이란 한계점을 가지고 있다. 이 문제를 해결하는 방법으로써 본 논문에서는 2가지 기후 요소인 일조량과 일사량에 따른 태양광 발전량을 추정하는 복합적인 방법을 제안한다. 이 연구 결과는 ESS의 정적 용량을 설계하는데 도움을 줄 수 있으며, 댁내 전력 IT 시스템에서 DC/AC 전력 스위칭의 적절한 타이밍을 제공하는데 도움을 줌으로써 전력품질의 균일성을 유지할 수 있도록 해줄 것으로 기대된다.

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