• Title/Summary/Keyword: Power Consumption Forecasting

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The Economic Effect of R&D Investment for the IT Green Growth Initiatives in Korea (IT분야의 신성장동력에 대한 연구개발(R&D)투자의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Park, Chu-Hwan;Han, Seong-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.558-586
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    • 2010
  • This paper analyze the economic effect of R&D investment for the IT Green growth initiatives in Korea, relating to Green growth which is main force for activating in order to durable growth currently. The IT green growth initiatives can be grouped by IT manufacture, IT service, and S/W and computer-related services in the R&D investment and to be analyzed by the RAS forecasting methods. The results indicate that the production-inducing effect is about 31,853 billion won for the IT manufacture, and IT service is about 14,360 billion won, and the next is S/W and computer-related service whose effect is about 4,482 billion won. The import, value added, and employment effect of IT manufacture is also bigger than those of any other sectors in IT. This is because R&D investment in case of IT manufacture is more huge than IT service. Besides, employment-inducing effects show that IT manufacture is highest in 16,596 persons; IT service is secondly highest in 9,000 persons and S/W; lastly, computer-related service is much lower than those of any other sector. So we can conjecture that the long-term initiatives of IT green growth implementation lead to increasing size of benefits in the IT sectors.

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Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.