• 제목/요약/키워드: Potential scenarios

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Analysis of Marine Vessel Collision Risk based on Quantitative Risk Assessment

  • Koo, Bon Guk
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제24권3호
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    • pp.319-324
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    • 2018
  • The collision problem is one of the design factors that must be carefully considered for the risk of collision occurring during the operation of ships and offshore structures. This paper presents the main results of the ship collision study, and its main goal is to analyze potential crash scenarios that may occur in the FLNG (Floating Liquefied Natural Gas) considering the likelihood and outcome. Consideration being given to vessels visiting the FLNG and surrounding vessels navigating around, such as functionally supported vessels and offloading carriers. The scope includes vessels visiting the FLNG facility such as in-field support vessels and off-loading carriers, as well as third party passing vessels. In this study, based on QRA (quantitative risk assessment), basic research methods and information on collision are provided. Based on the assumptions and methodologies documented in this study, it has been possible to clarify the frequency of collision and the damage category according to the type of visiting ship. Based on these results, the risk assessment results related to the collision have been derived.

SP자료를 이용한 화물수송수단 선택모형의 개발 -컨테이너 내륙운송을 중심으로- (Mode Choice Models for Freight Transportation Using SP Data)

  • 하원익;남기찬
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.81-99
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    • 1996
  • This study aims to assess the potential competition among road, rail, and coastal transport under various scenarios concerning the future inland container transport systems in Pusan-KyungIn corridor. For this SP approaches are adopted to collect data from shippers and carriers, and multinomial logit models are estimated at disaggragate level. The results of the analysis indicate that the SP data are reliable, and that the mode choice models estimated are valid. The results also indicate that the most effective policy to divert the freight volume from road to other modes is to reduce freight rates for the railway, and is to transport time for the coastal water with improved reliability.

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탄소비용이 CBP전력시장에 미치는 영향 (Impact of Carbon Costs on Wholesale Electricity Market)

  • 김욱;박종배;이주원
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제59권4호
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    • pp.700-706
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    • 2010
  • Carbon costs, either in the form of a carbon tax or through permit prices in an emissions trading scheme, would ultimately be reflected in higher electricity prices. This price "pass-through" is very critical to the effective design of new policies to curb the amount of carbon emissions. This paper sets out in a structured way the factors that determine price pass-through and how carbon costs would impact on the electricity market and the existing coal-fired power plants. It is shown that pass-through can vary drastically if the underlying dispatch potential of generators varies significantly across alternative emissions reduction scenarios. It can also vary depending on the availability of competing cleaner forms of generation. Pass-through as a measure of business performance is therefore hard to generalize across different circumstances and should be interpreted carefully.

시스템 통합효과 -남북한 정보통신 표준화의 경제성 분석- (Effectiveness of System Integration : Economic Analysis of Standardization for South and North Korean Telecommunication)

  • 김용필;조장운;윤덕균
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.74-78
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    • 2004
  • Systems are often operated by not integration but blocking, i.e., non-standardization. The system blocking is mainly caused by non-standardization or incompatibility. The integrated system is effective, but researches for quantification of effectiveness from Integrating system are few. System blocking causes additional cost which is almost intangible and potential. In this paper we proposed a model to quantify the effectiveness of system integration. To verify the validity of proposed model, we applied the model for Korean information and communication industry and forecasted the cost of integration for South and North Korean telecommunication industry in the way of three scenarios.

Safety Assessment of LNG Transferring System subjected to gas leakage using FMEA and FTA

  • Lee, Jang-Hyun;Hwang, Seyun;Kim, Sungchan
    • Journal of Advanced Research in Ocean Engineering
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.125-135
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    • 2017
  • The paper considers the practical application of the FMEA(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) method to assess the operational reliability of the LNG(Liquefied Natural Gas) transfer system, which is a potential problem for the connection between the LNG FPSO and LNG carrier. Hazard Identification (HAZID) and Hazard operability (HAZOP) are applied to identify the risks and hazards during the operation of LNG transfer system. The approach is performed for the FMEA to assess the reliability based on the detection of defects typical to LNG transfer system. FTA and FMEA associated with a probabilistic risk database to the operation scenarios are applied to assess the risk. After providing an outline of the safety assessment procedure for the operational problems of system, safety assessment example is presented, providing details on the fault tree of operational accident, safety assessment, and risk measures.

가상공동사회구현을 위한 사이버주거모델에 관한 연구 (A Study on Cyber house Model for creating Virtual Community)

  • 송정화;최용의;김은영;정나리;이현수
    • 한국주거학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국주거학회 2000년도 학술발표대회논문집
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    • pp.189-195
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is to provide a basis for creating virtual community based on Cyber house. Cyber house is a digital architecture which enables multifarious lives based on the self, neighbor, new information. This study presents a process of Cyber house model and suggests scenarios of Cyber house application. Cyber house model has been developed by using SCOL but there were a few problems to design Cyber house. Since Java3D has flexibility to create Cyber house without limitation, even though it is very difficult to develope, it may well suited to make Cyber house. .Therefore Cyber house has to be developed as an instrument which provides various function rather than simple 3 dimensional digital house. Cyber house has a lot of potential and contribute to the Quality of lives.

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발전부문 온실가스배출과 가스발전의 역할 분석 (An Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Role of Gas Generation in Electric Sector)

  • 강희정
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 2006
  • 본 논문에서는 현재 국제에너지기구에서 국가 에너지시스템분석에 공식적으로 사용되고 있는 시장분배모형(MARKAL: MARKet ALlocation) 모형을 이용하여 국내 발전부문의 온실가스 배출감축 잠재량평가를 위한 분석을 실시하였다. 모형 운영에 필요한 입력자료를 구축하고 4개의 시나리오를 설계하여 2040년까지의 발전기술의 구성, 특히 가스발전의 온실가스 감축에 대한 역할을 다양하게 분석하였다.

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A method for evaluation of longitudinal joint connections of decked precast concrete girder bridges

  • Smith, Matthew Z.;Li, Yue;Bulleit, William M.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제40권3호
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    • pp.297-313
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    • 2011
  • As bridge conditions in the United States continue to deteriorate, rapid bridge replacement procedures are needed. Decked precast prestressed concrete (DPPC) girders are used for rapid bridge construction because the bridge deck is precast with the girders eliminating the need for a cast-in-place slab. One of the concerns with using DPPC girders as a bridge construction option is the durability of the longitudinal joints between girders. The objectives of this paper were to propose a method to use a spring element modeling procedure for representing welded steel connector assemblies between adjacent girders in DPPC girder bridges, perform a preliminary study of bridge performance under multiple loading scenarios and bridge configurations, and discuss model flexibility for accommodating future field data for model verification. The spring elements have potential to represent the contribution of joint grout materials by altering the spring stiffness.

Trajectory Planning of Satellite Formation Flying using Nonlinear Programming and Collocation

  • Lim, Hyung-Chu;Bang, Hyo-Choong
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • 제25권4호
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    • pp.361-374
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    • 2008
  • Recently, satellite formation flying has been a topic of significant research interest in aerospace society because it provides potential benefits compared to a large spacecraft. Some techniques have been proposed to design optimal formation trajectories minimizing fuel consumption in the process of formation configuration or reconfiguration. In this study, a method is introduced to build fuel-optimal trajectories minimizing a cost function that combines the total fuel consumption of all satellites and assignment of fuel consumption rate for each satellite. This approach is based on collocation and nonlinear programming to solve constraints for collision avoidance and the final configuration. New constraints of nonlinear equality or inequality are derived for final configuration, and nonlinear inequality constraints are established for collision avoidance. The final configuration constraints are that three or more satellites should form a projected circular orbit and make an equilateral polygon in the horizontal plane. Example scenarios, including these constraints and the cost function, are simulated by the method to generate optimal trajectories for the formation configuration and reconfiguration of multiple satellites.

Scenario Planning and Risk Failure Mode Effect and Analysis (RFMEA) based Management

  • Paul, Virendra Kumar;Basu, Chaitali
    • Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.24-29
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    • 2016
  • This paper elaborates the significance of scenario planning in risk management, and presents an integrated approach which takes into account the 'Risk Events' derived from scenario planning for risk prioritisation. This research integrates scenario planning with Risk Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (RFMEA) through examples from construction litigations of project schedule and cost overrun cases as a simplified approach to project risk management. The proposed methodology incorporates scenarios developed from realistic events of dispute and arbitration cases from construction projects, and thereby increasing potential to foresee risks and their effects well in advance. The results from this methodology shall be validated against outcome of survey study conducted by KPMG-PMI (2013) on project schedule and cost overruns that was based on Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) Project Monitoring data for 2012-13.