• Analyses & Alternatives
• /
• v.4 no.2
• /
• pp.5-38
• /
• 2020

This paper investigates how public opinion has affected the United States Senate's votes on arms control treaties. Applying multilevel modeling with post-stratification to national polls, this paper produces estimates of state-level opinion on both the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty of 2010 and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty of 1999. Using these estimate, this paper examines the relationship between public opinion and the Senate's votes on the treaties. This paper finds that the influence of public opinion was mostly significant but indirect. These findings indicate that some version of the delegate model of representation is more applicable to foreign policy making in Congress.