• Title/Summary/Keyword: Portfolio Risk

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Stock Selection Model in the Formation of an Optimal and Adaptable Portfolio in the Indonesian Capital Market

  • SETIADI, Hendri;ACHSANI, Noer Azam;MANURUNG, Adler Haymans;IRAWAN, Tony
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.351-360
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to determine the factors that can influence investors in selecting stocks in the Indonesian capital market to establish an optimal portfolio, and find phenomena that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic so that buying interest / the number of investors increased in the Indonesian capital market. This study collection technique uses primary data obtained from the survey questionnaire and secondary data which is market data, stock price movement data sourced from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Indonesian Central Securities Depository, and Bank Indonesia, as well as empirical literature on behavior finance, investment decision, and interest in buying stock. The method used in this research is the survey questionnaire analysis with the SEM (statistical approach). The results of the analysis using SEM show that investor behavior influences the stock-buying interest, investor behavior, and the stock-buying interest influences investor decision-making. However, risk management does not influence investor-decision making. This occurs when the investigator's psychological capacity produces more decision information by decreasing all potential biases, allowing the best stock selection model to be selected. When the investigator's psychological capacity creates more decision information by reducing biases, the optimum stock selection model can be chosen.

A Study on Evaluation for Risk Level in Transmission Network Connected with Renewable Energy (신재생에너지 계통 연계에 따른 송전망 Risk Level 평가에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Yul;Moon, Sang-Kun;Kim, Jin-O
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.87-95
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    • 2011
  • A Renewable Portfolio Standard(RPS) is a regulation that requires the increased generation of energy from renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, fuel cell, small hydro, biomass and geothermal. By environmental, technical and these regulatory reasons, the amount of renewable energy sources will be increased in a network. However, it is hard to assess risk of a transmission network with large scale renewable energy sources because the output characteristics of renewable energies are intermittent. This paper evaluates effects of a transmission system with supplemental large scale renewable energies into the existing system. To evaluate these effects, a methodology for risk level of components in a network is proposed considering steady state and contingency N-1 in this paper. We consider line current and bus voltage in each state of a network.

The effect of health care reform: Testing the stability of systematic risk

  • Sewell, Daniel K.;Song, Joon-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.945-950
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    • 2010
  • As the U.S. Congress has continued to debate over the health care reform pushed by President Obama, there is an ample reason to believe that the systematic risk of the health care industry, especially health care plan providers, is increasing. This study measures and compares the systematic risk of two health care industry indexes and one portfolio of health care plan providers from before and after the introduction of the health care legislation into Congress in September, 2009. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to measure the systematic risk, and a dummy variable approach and the Chow test are used to formally compare the systematic risk from before and after the introduction of the legislation.

A Study on the Relations among Stock Return, Risk, and Book-to-Market Ratio (주식수익률, 위험, 장부가치 / 시장가치 비율의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Kam, Hyung-Kyu;Shin, Yong-Jae
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.127-147
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    • 2004
  • This paper examines the time-series relations among expected return, risk, and book-to-market(B/M) at the portfolio level. The time-series analysis is a natural alternative to cross-sectional regressions. An alternative feature of the time-series regressions is that they focus on changes in expected returns, not on average returns. Using the time-series analysis, we can directly test whether the three-factor model explains time-varying expected returns better than the characteristic-based model. These results should help distinguish between the risk and mispricing stories. We find that B/M is strongly associated with changes in risk, as measured by the Fama and French(1993) three-factor model. After controlling for changes in risk, B/M contains little additional information about expected returns. The evidence suggests that the three-factor model explains time-varying expected returns better than the characteristic-based model.

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Is The Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle Driven By A Missing Factor?

  • Hanjun Kim;Bumjean Sohn
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2024
  • Purpose - We investigate whether a potential missing pricing factor plays a significant role in the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle. Design/methodology/approach - We theoretically show how a missing pricing factor can affect the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, and also show how to get around the problem empirically. We adopt the Fama-French five factor model for the estimation of the idiosyncratic risk and use randomly constructed portfolios as test assets. Findings - We find that a missing factor does not drive the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle. Thus, we conclude that the idiosyncratic volatility does affect the risk premium of its stock. Research implications or Originality - The Fama-French five factor model does a pretty good job in explaining the risk premiums of stocks, and it can be used to reliably estimate idiosyncratic risk of stocks.

Information Risk and Cost of Equity: The Role of Stock Price Crash Risk

  • SALEEM, Sana;USMAN, Muhammad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.623-635
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of information risk on the Cost of Equity (COE) and whether the risk of a stock price crash mediates the relation between information risk and COE. To test the dynamic nature of the proposed model, the two-step system GMM dynamic panel estimators are applied to all the non-financial firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) from 2007- 2018. The results of this study show that all three types of information risk, as well as the risk of the share price crash, increases the COE. The crash risk strengthens the impact of information risk on the COE. Moreover, these three information risks are correlated with each other and an increase in information quality reduces the effect of asymmetric information and improves the investor interpreting ability, while an increase in private information decreases the transparency. The finding is crucial for asset pricing, portfolio management, and information disclosure. This study contributes to the literature by providing novel findings on the impact of three different types of information risk, i.e. private information, quality of information, and transparency of information on the COE as well as whether crash risk mediates the relationship.

Stock Price Return and Variance of Unlisted Start-ups (비상장 스타트업의 주가수익률과 분산)

  • KANG, Won;SHIN, Jung-Soon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.29-43
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    • 2022
  • This study measures the realized rate of return of venture capital(VC) fund at the level of investment agreement(as opposed to fund level returns reported by most of the relevant studies). It also measures the stock price return of the VC's portfolio firms (unlisted start-ups) at firm level(as opposed to fund returns) and its variance for the first time using unique data of the VC funds held by the Korean Venture Capital Association. Results of the analysis confirm that VC fund returns exceed individual stock price returns. Additionally, it is confirmed that VC portfolio firms exhibit a positive relationship between risk and return measured by total risk. Finally, we find that stock price returns at firm level are lower than that implied by the associated levels of risk. Consequently, this may make individual investors hesitate to directly buy unlisted startups' stocks even when investment in individual startup companies guarantees high risk-high returns relationship.

MODELING MEASURES OF RISK CORRELATION FOR QUANTITATIVE FLOAT MANAGEMENT OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

  • Richard C. Jr. Thompson;Gunnar Lucko
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.459-466
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    • 2013
  • Risk exists in all construction projects and resides among the collection of subcontractors and their array of individual activities. Wherever risk resides, the interrelation of participants to one another becomes paramount for the way in which risk is measured. Inherent risk becomes recognizable and quantifiable within network schedules in the form of consuming float - the flexibility to absorb delays. Allocating, owning, valuing, and expending such float in network schedules has been debated since the inception of the critical path method itself. This research investigates the foundational element of a three-part approach that examines how float can be traded as a commodity, a concept whose promise remains unfulfilled for lack of a holistic approach. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) of financial portfolio theory, which describes the relationship between risk and expected return of individual stocks, is explored as an analogy to quantify the inherent risk of the participants in construction projects. The inherent relationship between them and their impact on overall schedule performance, defined as schedule risk -the likelihood of failing to meet schedule plans and the effect of such failure, is matched with the use of CAPM's beta component - the risk correlation measure of an individual stock to that of the entire market - to determine parallels with respect to the inner workings and risks represented by each entity or activity within a schedule. This correlation is the initial theoretical extension that is required to identify where risk resides within construction projects, allocate and commoditize it, and achieve actual tradability.

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A Study on the Corporate Portfolio Risk Management for Multinational Construction Company (대형건설업체의 해외건설공사 포트폴리오 리스크 관리에 관한 연구)

  • Han Seung-Heon;Lee Young;Kim Hyung-Jin;Ock Jong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.2 no.2 s.6
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    • pp.68-80
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    • 2001
  • While opportunities for international construction firms have been growing with globalization, the risk of international construction projects is significantly increasing in severity and complexity. However, the traditional risk management approach in the construction industry has maintained a profit focus. In addition, this approach has not considered the overall risk at the corporate level, but rather has focused only on the risk of individuals at the project level. Corporate risk management should be implemented from the initial stages of new project selection. This paper suggests the Multi-criteria Integrated Systematic Analysis as a strategic decision-making tool for international construction contractors. The model integrates the multi-criteria of risk, return, and efficiency to choose the optimal set of new portfolios at the corporate level. This model also introduces the Value at Risk (VaR) concept to the international construction industry to present the total risk at the corporate level. To validate this model, this paper tested an experimental case study using the historical data of a global general contractor.

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A Study on Portfolios Using Simulated Annealing and Tabu Search Algorithms (시뮬레이티드 어닐링와 타부 검색 알고리즘을 활용한 포트폴리오 연구)

  • Woo Sik Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.27 no.2_2
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    • pp.467-473
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    • 2024
  • Metaheuristics' impact is profound across many fields, yet domestic financial portfolio optimization research falls short, particularly in asset allocation. This study delves into metaheuristics for portfolio optimization, examining theoretical and practical benefits. Findings indicate portfolios optimized via metaheuristics outperform the Dow Jones Index in Sharpe ratios, underscoring their potential to enhance risk-adjusted returns significantly. Tabu search, in comparison to Simulated Annealing, demonstrates superior performance by efficiently navigating the search space. Despite these advancements, practical application remains challenging due to the complexities in metaheuristic implementation. The study advocates for broader algorithmic exploration, including population-based metaheuristics, to refine asset allocation strategies further. This research marks a step towards optimizing portfolios from an extensive array of financial assets, aiming for maximum efficacy in investment outcomes.