• 제목/요약/키워드: Population Dynamics

검색결과 546건 처리시간 0.035초

MODELING OF HUMAN INDUCED CO2 EMISSION BY ASSIMILATING GIS AND SOC10-ECONIMICAL DATA TO SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR OECD AND NON-OECD COUNTRIES

  • Goto, Shintaro
    • 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한원격탐사학회 1998년도 Proceedings of International Symposium on Remote Sensing
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    • pp.3-8
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    • 1998
  • Using GIS and socio-economical data the relationship between human activities and global environmental change Is Analysed from the view point of food productivity and CO2 emission. Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumption can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumption of food, energy and timber on global environment changes, and global population capacity are Analysed using developed system dynamics model in the research. In the model the world is divided into two groups: OECD countries and the others. Used global land use data set Is land cover map derived from satellite data, and potential distribution of arable land is estimated by the method of Clamor and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, impacts of CO2 emission from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback. The results of the analysis for BaU scenario and Toronto Conference scenario are similar to the results of existing models. From the result of this study, the human habitability in 2020 is 8 billion people, and CO2 emission in 2020 based on BaU Scenario and on Toronto Scenario is 1.7 and 1.2 times more than the 1986's respectively. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global data to distribute the environmental variables and sauce-economical indices is left for further studies.

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Comparison of Three Optimization Methods Using Korean Population Data

  • 오덕교
    • 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.47-71
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this research is the examination of validity of data as well as simulation model, i.e. to simulate the real data in the SD model with the least error using the adjustments for the faithful reflection of real data to the simulation. In general, SD programs (e.g. VENSIM) utilize the Euler or Runge-Kutta method as an algorithm. It is possible to reflect the trend of real data via these two estimation methods however can cause the validity problem in case of the simulation requiring the accuracy as they have endogenous errors. In this article, the future population estimated by the Korea National Statistical Office (KNSO) to 2050 is simulated by the aging chain model, dividing the population into three cohorts, 0-14, 15-64, 65 and over cohorts by age and offering the adjustments to them. Adjustments are calculated by optimization with three different methods, optimization in EXCEL, manual optimization with iterative calculation, and optimization in VENSIM DSS, the results are compared, and at last the optimal adjustment set with the least error are found among them. The simulation results with the pre-determined optimal adjustment set are validated by methods proposed by Barlas (1996) and other alternative methods. It is concluded that the result of simulation model in this research has no significant difference from the real data and reflects the real trend faithfully.

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길쭉먼지벌레의 개체군 변동 (딱정벌레목(目): 먼지벌레과(科)) (Population Dynamics of the Genus Pterostichus (Coleoptera, Harpalidae))

  • 박종균;권용정;서상재
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • 제14권
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 1996
  • 덕유산 지역을 대상으로 길쭉먼지벌레류 4종에 대한 고도별, 계절별 분포 및 이동상황을 조사해본 결과 P. ishikawai 가 가장 많은 밀도를 나타내었다. 대분분 종들에서 6월은 저고도에서 많은 빈도를 나타내었으며, 반대로 8월에는 높은 고도에서 많이 채집되는 경향을 보였다. 그리고 9월에서는 6월과 마찬가지로 저고도에서 다소 많은 양이 채집되었다. 조사된 길쭉먼지벌레류 4종중에서 P. audax가 전형적인 곤충의 계절별, 고도별 이동 경향을 나타내었다.

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Dynamics of Resonant Energy Transfer in OH Vibrations of Liquid Water

  • Yang, Mi-No
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.885-892
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    • 2012
  • Energy transfer dynamics of excited vibrational energy of OH stretching bonds in liquid water is theoretically studied. With time-dependent vibrational Hamiltonian obtained from a mixed quantum/classical calculation, we construct a master equation describing the energy transfer dynamics. Survival probability predicted by the master equation is compared with numerically exact one and we found that incoherent picture of energy transfer is reasonably valid for long-time population dynamics. Within the incoherent picture, we assess the validity of independent pair approximation (IPA) often introduced in the theoretical models utilized in the analysis of experimental data. Our results support that the IPA is almost perfectly valid as applied for the vibrational energy transfer in liquid water. However, proper incorporation of radial and orientational correlations between two OH bonds is found to be critical for a theory to be quantitatively valid. Consequently, it is suggested that the Forster model should be generalized by including the effects of the pair correlations in order to be applied for vibrational energy transfer in liquid water.