• Title/Summary/Keyword: Poll

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Bias Reduction in Election Poll Analysis -Measurement Bias of Responses- (선거예측에서 편의의 감소 -거짓응답을 중심으로-)

  • 박용치
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.21-39
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    • 2000
  • Researchers in sample surveys have long recognized that what people say they are going to and what they do are not always the same, to say the least. Naturally this inconsistency distorts the survey results, especially in election poll surveys in Korea. How can one cope with this measurement bias\ulcorner This paper suggests two ideas: election poll tree and using posterior probability. By using two ideas the inconsistency of the poll survey results could be improved much or less.

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Bias Reduction in Election Poll Analysis: Measurement Bias of Responses (선거예측에서 편의의 감소: 거짓응답을 중심으로)

  • 박용치
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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    • 2000.06a
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    • pp.35-57
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    • 2000
  • Researchers in sample surveys have long recognized that what people say they are going to and what they do are not always the same, to say the least. Naturally this inconsistency distorts the survey results, especially in election poll surveys in Korea. How can one cope with this measurement bias\ulcorner This paper suggests two ideas: election poll tree and using posterior probability. By using two ideas the inconsistency of the poll survey results could be improved much or less.

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Bias Reduction in Election Poll Analysis: Measurement Bias of Responses (선거예측에서 편의의 감소: 거짓응답을 중심으로)

  • Park, Yong-Chie
    • Survey Research
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.35-57
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    • 2000
  • Researchers in sample surveys have long recognized that what people say they are going to and what they do are not always the same, to say the least. Naturally this inconsistency distorts the survey results, especially in election poll surveys in Korea. How can one cope with this measurement bias? This paper suggests two ideas: election poll tree and using posterior probability. By using two ideas the inconsistency of the poll survey results could be improved much or less.

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Additional Hosts of Sphaerotheca fuliginea (Schlecht. ex Fr.) Poll. s. lat., a Powdery Mildew Fungus, in Korea (흰가루병균(病菌) Sphaerotheca fuliginea(Schlecht. ex Fr.) Poll. s. lat.의 한국산(韓國産) 미기록기주식물(未記錄寄主植物))

  • Shin, Hyeon-Dong;La, Yong-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Mycology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.159-163
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    • 1984
  • Sphaerotheca fuliginea (Schlecht. ex Fr.) Poll. has been recorded on 13 plant species in Korea, to which the authors add 10 additional host plants. The taxonomic concept of S. fuliginea proposed by Blumer in 1933 was adopted here.

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Design and Implementation of Today Poll System for the Social Poll System Environment (Social Poll 시스템 환경을 위한 Today Poll 시스템의 설계 및 구현)

  • Park, Ji-Ho;Park, Sung-Wook;Lee, Sun-Ho;Lee, Im-Yeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.815-818
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    • 2011
  • 모바일 인터넷 통신망의 급속한 발전과 스마트폰 보급률이 늘어남에 따라 언제 어디서나 빠르게 인터넷에 접속할 수 있는 정보 인프라가 갖추어졌다. 더불어 이를 이용하는 사용자 간의 사회적 네트워크 소통 시스템이 최근 주목받고 있다. 하지만 단순한 메시지나 사진, 음성이나 동영상 등의 데이터를 교환하는데 그치고 있다. 이러한 시스템 환경에서는 다른 사용자의 피드백이 필요한 질문이나 설문, 투표와 같은 요청이 발생하였을 때 만족스러운 결과를 얻기까지 여러 번의 복잡한 메시지 교환이 이루어져야 한다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 불편을 해결하기 위하여 질문자의 물음에 답변하는 일반적인 설문조사 방식이 아닌 투표 할 수 있는 후보에 대한 추천을 응답자들이 직접 하는 것이 가능하도록 하는 시스템을 설계 및 구현하였다.

Estimating the Interim Rate of Votes Earned Based on the Exit Poll Results during the Coverage of Ballot Results by Broadcasters (선거 개표방송에서 출구조사 자료를 활용한 중간 득표율 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yoon-Dong;Park, Jin-Woo
    • Survey Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.141-152
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    • 2011
  • During major elections, three terrestrial broadcasting stations in Korea have covered the progresses of election results by announcing the simple sum of ballot counts of all ballot counting stations. The current approach, however, does not properly reflect the actual ballot count differences by ballot counting location, leading to cause unnecessary but possible confusions. In addition, the current coverage approach restricts the broadcasters from using regional poll data gained through exit polls by letting them to use the significant information on a one-off purpose to announce the initial prediction of the poll results and to fully disregard the exit poll results during the ballot counting process. Based on the understanding, this paper is designed to suggest a Bayesian approach to consolidate the exit poll results with the progressive ballot counting results and announce them as such. The suggested consolidation approach is expected to mitigate or avoid the possible confusions that may arise in connection with the different ballot counting paces by ballot counting station.

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Is Information Distribution and Group Discussion Useful for the Deliberative Poll in Korea? (공론조사의 숙의 유도 방법 : 한국 상황에서의 문제점 검토)

  • Cho, Sung-Kyum;Cho, En-Hee
    • Survey Research
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.43-66
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    • 2007
  • This study attempts to identify the problems in applying the deliberative polling method within the Korean cultural context. The deliberative polling method uses information distribution and group discussion to encourage the poll participants to be informed on and deliberate the issues, so that they may express their elaborate informed opinions when surveyed after discussion. One of the criticisms is that having all the poll participants assemble in one location may result in lower level of poll participation and accordingly a less representative sample. Also, the assumption that group discussion will bring about deliberation has not been tested. Some research suggests that in certain Asian cultures, group discussion is not widely used for conflict resolution or consensus building. Thus this study proposes that the mere utilization of a group discussion method does not necessarily imply that the participants have actually deliberated the issues. A telephone survey of one thousand Koreans over the age of 20 was conducted. The survey results show that group discussion is not a common way to discuss controversial issues in Korea, and would contribute to a low participation rate. It is the conclusion of this study that alternative deliberation methods need to be developed.

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Poll System using E-mails

  • Kim, Yon Hyong;Oh, Min Gweon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.767-775
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    • 2001
  • In this paper we propose a poll system using e-mail. This system expects to increase the response ratio because of including a questionnaire inner e-mail. Especially, this system automatically provides a general paper which is a result of categorical data analysis.

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Probability Sampling to Select Polling Places in Exit Poll (출구조사를 위한 투표소 확률추출 방법)

  • Kim, Young-Won;Uhm, Yoon-Hee
    • Survey Research
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2005
  • The accuracy of exit poll mainly depends on the sampling method of voting places. For exit poll, we propose a probability sampling method of selecting voting places as an alternative to the bellwether polling place sampling. Through an empirical study based on the 2004 general election data, the efficiency of the suggested systematic sampling from ordered voting places was evaluated in terms of mean prediction error and it turns out that the proposed sampling method outperformed the bellwether polling places sampling. We also calculated the variance of estimator from the proposed sampling, and considered the sample size problem to guarantee the target precision using the design effect of the proposed sample design.

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The Effects of Voters' Perception of Television News Coverage of Election Poll Results on Political Participation Intention (텔레비전 선거 여론조사 보도의 영향에 대한 수용자 인식이 정치적 행동의향에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hyun-Jung;Lee, Soo-Bum;Kim, Nam-Ie
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.62
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    • pp.159-178
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    • 2013
  • The current study examined the effects of the voters' perception of television news coverage of election poll results on their political participation intention. 700 voters participated in a telephone interview three weeks before the 2012 Korean presidential election. A structural equation modeling with the nationally representative sample was performed. The findings indicate the respondents were more likely to evaluate television news coverage of election poll results negatively when the news coverage presented that the candidate they supported was behind in the race, and the negative evaluation was linked to a greater third-person perception. The third-person perception, in turn, had an indirect effect on political participation intention through negative emotional responses. The results imply that voters' political position influences their perception of the television news coverage of election poll results, and this perception can have indirect effects on political participation.

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