• Title/Summary/Keyword: Policy Simulation

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A study on the Success Factors and Strategy of Information Technology Investment Based on Intelligent Economic Simulation Modeling (지능형 시뮬레이션 모형을 기반으로 한 정보기술 투자 성과 요인 및 전략 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.35-55
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    • 2013
  • Information technology is a critical resource necessary for any company hoping to support and realize its strategic goals, which contribute to growth promotion and sustainable development. The selection of information technology and its strategic use are imperative for the enhanced performance of every aspect of company management, leading a wide range of companies to have invested continuously in information technology. Despite researchers, managers, and policy makers' keen interest in how information technology contributes to organizational performance, there is uncertainty and debate about the result of information technology investment. In other words, researchers and managers cannot easily identify the independent factors that can impact the investment performance of information technology. This is mainly owing to the fact that many factors, ranging from the internal components of a company, strategies, and external customers, are interconnected with the investment performance of information technology. Using an agent-based simulation technique, this research extracts factors expected to affect investment performance on information technology, simplifies the analyses of their relationship with economic modeling, and examines the performance dependent on changes in the factors. In terms of economic modeling, I expand the model that highlights the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between information technology investments and economic performance (Thatcher and Pingry, 2004) by considering the cost of information technology investment and the demand creation resulting from product quality enhancement. For quality enhancement and its consequences for demand creation, I apply the concept of information quality and decision-maker quality (Raghunathan, 1999). This concept implies that the investment on information technology improves the quality of information, which, in turn, improves decision quality and performance, thus enhancing the level of product or service quality. Additionally, I consider the effect of word of mouth among consumers, which creates new demand for a product or service through the information diffusion effect. This demand creation is analyzed with an agent-based simulation model that is widely used for network analyses. Results show that the investment on information technology enhances the quality of a company's product or service, which indirectly affects the economic performance of that company, particularly with regard to factors such as consumer surplus, company profit, and company productivity. Specifically, when a company makes its initial investment in information technology, the resultant increase in the quality of a company's product or service immediately has a positive effect on consumer surplus, but the investment cost has a negative effect on company productivity and profit. As time goes by, the enhancement of the quality of that company's product or service creates new consumer demand through the information diffusion effect. Finally, the new demand positively affects the company's profit and productivity. In terms of the investment strategy for information technology, this study's results also reveal that the selection of information technology needs to be based on analysis of service and the network effect of customers, and demonstrate that information technology implementation should fit into the company's business strategy. Specifically, if a company seeks the short-term enhancement of company performance, it needs to have a one-shot strategy (making a large investment at one time). On the other hand, if a company seeks a long-term sustainable profit structure, it needs to have a split strategy (making several small investments at different times). The findings from this study make several contributions to the literature. In terms of methodology, the study integrates both economic modeling and simulation technique in order to overcome the limitations of each methodology. It also indicates the mediating effect of product quality on the relationship between information technology and the performance of a company. Finally, it analyzes the effect of information technology investment strategies and information diffusion among consumers on the investment performance of information technology.

A Characteristics and Improvement of Thermal Environment in Summer of Protected Horticulture Complex Using CFD Simulation (CFD 시뮬레이션을 이용한 시설원예단지 여름철 외부 열환경 특성 및 개선방안)

  • Son, Jin-Kwan;Kong, Min-Jae;Choi, Deuggyu;Kang, Dong-Hyeon;Park, Min-Jung;Yun, Sung-Wook;Lee, Seungchul;Lee, Si-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.73-86
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    • 2018
  • Agricultural or rural landscape provides various ecosystem services. However, the ecosystem services function is declining due to various environmental problems such as climate change, land use change, stream intensification, non-point pollution and garbage. The A1B scenario predicts that the mean air temperature of South Korea will rise $3.8^{\circ}C$ degrees celsius in 2100. Agricultural sector is very vulnerable to climate change, so it must be thoroughly predicted and managed. In Korea, the facility horticulture complex is 54,051ha in 2016 and is the 3rd largest in the world(MAFRA, 2014). Facilities of horticultural complexes are reported to cause problems such as groundwater decrease, vegetation and insects diversity reduction, landscapes damage and garbage increase, compared with the existing land use paddy fields. Heat island phenomenon associated with climate change is also accelerated by the high heat absorption of horticultural sites. Therefore, we analyzed the heat island phenomenon occurring in the facility of horticultural complex in Korea. As an improvement measurement, I examined how much air temperature is reduced by putting the channel and the open space. In the case of the Buyeo area, the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation was analyzed for the average summer temperature distribution in the current land use mode at $38.9^{\circ}C$. As an improvement measurement, CFD simulation after 10% of 6m water channel was found to have an effect of lowering the summer temperature of about $2.7^{\circ}C$ compared with the present average of $36.2^{\circ}C$. In addition, CFD simulations after analyzing 10% of the open space were analyzed at $34.7^{\circ}C$, which is $4.2^{\circ}C$ lower than the present. For the Jinju area, CFD simulations were analyzed for the average temperature of summer at $37.8^{\circ}C$ in the present land use pattern. As an improvement measure, CFD simulations after 10% of 6m water channel were found to have an effect of lowering the summer temperature of about $2.6^{\circ}C$ compared to the current average of $35.2^{\circ}C$. In addition, CFD simulations after analyzing 10% of the open space were analyzed at $33.9^{\circ}C$, which is $3.9^{\circ}C$ lower than the present. It can be said that the effect of summer temperature drop in open space and waterway has been proven. The results of this study are expected to be reflected in sustainable agriculture land use and used as basic data for government - level policy in land use planning for climate change.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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The Impact of Electricity Price Change on the Income Distribution (전력요금인하(電力料金引下)가 소득분배(所得分配)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Song, Dae-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 1991
  • The economic policy of decreasing the electricity price is widely understood to have the effect of stabilizing the general price level and improving the income distribution. However, the impact of electricity price decrease on the income distribution is not quite sure although the electricity price decrease would increase the disposable income of all households. The electricity price change would affect the income distribution through three channels. The first impact on the income distribution is made through the electricity price sructure; Korean electricity price structure is designed to subsidized the industrial sector at the cost of household consumption sector in the sense that the price per unit electricity for industrial sector is much lower than that for household consumption sector. The second impact on the income distribution is created through the disposable household income effect of the price decrease; Relative disposable income effect among households appeared higher to lower income household group and this relative disposable income effect seem to improve the income distribution although the net effect is very small. The third impact on the income distribution is formulated through the net profit effect of entreprise sector; This unearned net profit increase to the already rich industrial entrepreneurs group could create a negative income distribution effect. A simulation of 10% electricity price decrease with all the price structure given was attempted to calculate the net effect of income distribution and it was found the net income distribution effect of flat electricity price decrease to be negative contrary to the general understanding. The income distribution effect would only be one criterion among many other criteria considered in the electricity price making process. The electricity price decrease would be helpful to the price stabilization and price competitiveness of industrial sector. However, it does not improve the general income distribution status by the electricity price decrease with the price structure given.

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The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.4
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    • pp.43-71
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    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

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The Effects of Female Wage on Fertility in Korea (여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jungho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2009
  • Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

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Applicability Analysis of the HSPF Model for the Management of Total Pollution Load Control at Tributaries (지류총량관리를 위한 HSPF 모형의 적용성 분석)

  • Song, Chul Min;Kim, Jung Soo;Lee, Min Sung;Kim, Seo Jun;Shin, Hyung Seob
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2022
  • The total maximum daily load (TMDL) implemented in Korea mainly manages the mainstream considering a single common pollutant and river discharge, and the river system is divided into unit watersheds. Changes in the water quality of managed rivers owing to the water quality management in tributaries and unit watersheds are not considered when implementing the TMDL. In addition, it is difficult to consider the difference in the load of pollutants generated in the tributary depending on the conditions of the water quality change in each unit watershed, even if the target water quality was maintained in the managed water system. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce the total maximum load management at tributaries to manage the pollution load of tributaries with a high degree of pollution. In this study, the HSPF model, a watershed runoff model, was applied to the target areas consisting of 53 sub-watersheds to analyze the effect of water quality changes the in tributaries on the mainstream. Sub-watersheds were selected from the three major areas of the Paldang water system, including the drainage basins of the downstream of the South Han-River, Gyeongan stream, and North Han-River. As a result, BOD ranged from 0.17 mg/L to 4.30 mg/L, and was generally high in tributaries and decreased in the downstream watershed. TP ranged from 0.02 mg/L - 0.22 mg/L, and the watersheds that had a large impact on urbanization and livestock industry were high, and the North Han-River basin was generally low. In addition, a pollution source reduction scenario was selected to analyze the change in water quality by the amount of pollution load discharged at each unit watershed. The reduction rate of BOD and TP according to the scenario changes was simulated higher in the watershed of the downstream of the North Han-River and downstream and midstream of the Gyeongan stream. It was found that the benefits of water quality reduction from each sub-watershed efforts to improve water quality are greatest in the middle and downstream of each main stream, and it is judged that it can be served as basic data for the management of total tributaries.

Application of the LISFLOOD-FP model for flood stage prediction on the lower mankyung river (만경강 하류 홍수위 예측을 위한 LISFLOOD-FP 모형의 적용성 검토)

  • Jeon, Ho-Seong;Kim, Ji-sung;Kim, Kyu-ho;Hong, il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.459-467
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    • 2016
  • LISFLOOD-FP model in which channel flows are resolved separately from the floodplain flows using either a kinematic or diffusive wave approximation has been used to analyze flooding behavior on the lower Mankyung River influenced by backwater. A calibration and validation process was applied using the previous flood events to assess the model performance. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for main calibrated parameters, such as Manning roughness coefficient and downstream boundary condition. Also, we examined the effect of warm-up for the initial conditions. The results show that the computed hydrograph is in good agreement with measured data on the study reach, even though it was a hydrologic kinematic wave model. The sensitive analysis show that the difference between the computed results may be greater depending on the used calibrated parameters and that the sufficient calibration/validation process against various flood events is necessary. If the flood inundation simulation is performed using the validated model, it is expected to be able to contribute about river planning and policy decision-making for flood damage reduction.

Exploring User Attitude to Information Privacy (개인정보 노출에 대한 인터넷 사용자의 태도에 관한 연구)

  • Baek, Seung Ik;Choi, Duk Sun
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2015
  • As many companies have been interested in big data, they have invested a lot of resources to get more customer data. Some companies try to trade the data illegally. In order to collect more customer data, companies provide various incentive programs to customers. However, their results are normally much less than their expectations. This study focuses on exploring the relative importance of the factors which influence customer attitudes to providing his/her personal information. This study conducts a conjoint analysis to assess trade-offs among the five influential factors-monetary reward, concern for data collection, concern for secondary use, concern for unauthorized use, and concern for errors. This study finds that the customer attitude to providing personal information is most influenced by the concern for secondary use. Furthermore, it shows that there are some differences between the light internet user group and the heavy internet user group in the relative importances of these factors. The monetary rewards appeal to the heavy internet users, rather than the light internet users.

Cache Memory and Replacement Algorithm Implementation and Performance Comparison

  • Park, Na Eun;Kim, Jongwan;Jeong, Tae Seog
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we propose practical results for cache replacement policy by measuring cache hit and search time for each replacement algorithm through cache simulation. Thus, the structure of each cache memory and the four types of alternative policies of FIFO, LFU, LRU and Random were implemented in software to analyze the characteristics of each technique. The paper experiment showed that the LRU algorithm showed hit rate and search time of 36.044% and 577.936ns in uniform distribution, 45.636% and 504.692ns in deflection distribution, while the FIFO algorithm showed similar performance to the LRU algorithm at 36.078% and 554.772ns in even distribution and 45.662% and 489.574ns in bias distribution. Then LFU followed, Random algorithm was measured at 30.042% and 622.866ns at even distribution, 36.36% at deflection distribution and 553.878ns at lowest performance. The LRU replacement method commonly used in cache memory has the complexity of implementation, but it is the most efficient alternative to conventional alternative algorithms, indicating that it is a reasonable alternative method considering the reference information of data.