• Korean Security Journal
• /
• no.18
• /
• pp.169-190
• /
• 2009

Today, the rapid advance of scientific technologies has brought about fundamental changes to the types and levels of terrorism while the war against the world more than one thousand small and big terrorists and crime organizations has already begun. A method highly likely to be employed by terrorist groups that are using 21st Century state of the art technology is cyber terrorism. In many instances, things that you could only imagine in reality could be made possible in the cyber space. An easy example would be to randomly alter a letter in the blood type of a terrorism subject in the health care data system, which could inflict harm to subjects and impact the overturning of the opponent's system or regime. The CIH Virus Crisis which occurred on April 26, 1999 had significant implications in various aspects. A virus program made of just a few lines by Taiwanese college students without any specific objective ended up spreading widely throughout the Internet, causing damage to 30,000 PCs in Korea and over 2 billion won in monetary damages in repairs and data recovery. Despite of such risks of cyber terrorism, a great number of Korean sites are employing loose security measures. In fact, there are many cases where a company with millions of subscribers has very slackened security systems. A nationwide preparation for cyber terrorism is called for. In this context, this research will analyze the current status of Korea's cyber security systems and its laws from a policy perspective, and move on to propose improvement strategies. This research suggests the following solutions. First, the National Cyber Security Management Act should be passed to have its effectiveness as the national cyber security management regulation. With the Act's establishment, a more efficient and proactive response to cyber security management will be made possible within a nationwide cyber security framework, and define its relationship with other related laws. The newly passed National Cyber Security Management Act will eliminate inefficiencies that are caused by functional redundancies dispersed across individual sectors in current legislation. Second, to ensure efficient nationwide cyber security management, national cyber security standards and models should be proposed; while at the same time a national cyber security management organizational structure should be established to implement national cyber security policies at each government-agencies and social-components. The National Cyber Security Center must serve as the comprehensive collection, analysis and processing point for national cyber crisis related information, oversee each government agency, and build collaborative relations with the private sector. Also, national and comprehensive response system in which both the private and public sectors participate should be set up, for advance detection and prevention of cyber crisis risks and for a consolidated and timely response using national resources in times of crisis.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.32 no.2
• /
• pp.93-143
• /
• 2010

This paper estimates the impact of Japan's economic sanction on DPRK trade in the 2000s. It conceptualizes the effects of sanction on DPRK trade, econometrically tests whether such effects exist in case of Japan's sanction using currently available DPRK trade statistics, and measures the size of the effects by correcting and reconfiguring the deficiencies of the currently available DPRK trade statistics. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, Japan's sanction can have two different effects on DPRK trade: 'Sanction Country Effect' and "Third Country Effect.' The former means that the sanction diminishes DPRK trade with Japan while the latter refers to the effects on DPRK trade with other countries as well. The third country effect can arise not simply because the DPRK changes its trade routes to circumvent the sanction, but because the sanction forces the DPRK to readjust its major trade items and patterns. Second, currently no official DPRK trade statistics are available. Thus, the so-called mirror data referring to DPRK trading partners' statistics should be employed for the analysis of the sanction effects. However, all currently available mirror data suffer from three fundamental problems: 1) they may omit the real trade partners of the DPRK; 2) they may confuse ROK trade with DPRK trade; 3) they cannot distinguish non-commercial trade from commercial trade, whereas only the latter concerns Japan's sanction. Considering those problems, we have to adopt the following method in order to reach a reasonable conclusion about the sanction effect. That is, we should repeat the same analysis using all different mirror data currently available, which include KOTRA, IMF and UN Commodity Trade Statistics, and then discuss only the common results from them. Third, currently available mirror data make the following points. 1) DPRK trade is well explained by the gravity model. 2) Japan's sanction has not only the sanction country effect but also the third country effect on DPRK trade. 3) The third country effect occurs differently on DPRK export and import. In case of export, the mirror statistics reveal positive (+) third country effects on all of the major trade partners of the DPRK, including South Korea, China and Thailand. However, on DPRK import, such third country effects are not statistically significant even for South Korea and China. 4) This suggests that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import rather than its export. Fourth, as far as DPRK export is concerned, it is possible to resolve the abovementioned fundamental problems of mirror data and thus reconstruct more accurate statistics on DPRK trade. Those reconstructed statistics lead us to following conclusions. 1) Japan's economic sanction diminished DPRK's export to Japan from 2004 to 2006 by 103 million dollars on annual average (Sanction Country Effect). It comprises around 60 percent of DPRK's export to Japan in 2003. 2) However, for the same period, the DPRK diverted its exports to other countries to cope up with Japan's sanction, and as a result its export to other countries increased by 85 million dollars on annual average (Third Country Effect). 3) This means that more than 80 per cent of the sanction country effect was made up for by the third country effect. And the actual size of impact that Japan's sanction made on DPRK export in total was merely 30 million dollars on annual average. 4) The third country effect occurred mostly in inter-Korean trade. In fact, Japan's sanction increased DPRK export to the ROK by 72 million dollars on annual average. In contrast, there was no statistically significant increase in DPRK export to China caused by Japan's sanction. 5) It means that the DPRK confronted Japan's sanction and mitigated its impact primarily by using inter-Korean trade and thus the ROK. Fifth, two things should be noted concerning the fourth results above. 1) The results capture the third country effect caused only by trade transfer. Facing Japan's sanction, the DPRK could transfer its existing trade with Japan to other countries. Also it could change its main export items and increase the export of those new items to other countries as mentioned in the first result. However, the fourth results above reflect only the former, not the latter. 2) Although Japan's sanction did not make a huge impact on DPRK export, it might not be necessarily true for DPRK import. Indeed the currently available mirror statistics suggest that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import. Hence it would not be wise to argue that Japan's sanction did not have much impact on DPRK trade in general, simply using the fourth result above.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.31 no.1
• /
• pp.71-103
• /
• 2009

Considering the expenditure size of public institutions centering on public enterprises, about 28% of Korea's GDP in 2007, public institutions have significant influence on the Korean economy. However, still in the new government, there are voices of criticism about the need of constant reform on public enterprises due to their irresponsible management impeding national competitiveness. Especially, political controversy over appointment of executives such as CEOs of public enterprises has caused the distrust of the people. As one of various reform measures for public enterprises, this study analyzes the effect of internal governance structure of public enterprises on their managerial performance, since, regardless of privatization of public enterprises, improving the governance structure of public enterprises is a matter of great importance. There are only a few prior researches focusing on the governance structure and managerial performance of public enterprises compared to those of private enterprises. Most of prior researches studied the relationship between parachuting employment of CEO and managerial performance, and concluded that parachuting produces negative effect on managerial performance. However, different from the results of such researches, recent studies suggest that there is no relationship between employment type of CEOs and managerial performance in public enterprises. This study is distinguished from prior researches in view of following. First, prior researches focused on the relationship between employment type of public enterprises' CEOs and managerial performance. However, in addition to this, this study analyzes the relationship of internal auditors and managerial performance. Second, unlike prior researches studying the relationship between employment type of public corporations' CEOs and managerial performance with an emphasis on parachuting employment, this study researches impact of employment type as well as expertise of CEOs and internal auditors on managerial performance. Third, prior researchers mainly used non-financial indicators from various samples. However, this study eliminated subjectivity of researchers by analyzing public enterprises designated by the government and their financial statements, which were externally audited and inspected. In this study, regression analysis is applied in analyzing the relationship of independence and expertise of public enterprises' CEOs and internal auditors and managerial performance in the same year. Financial information from 2003 to 2007 of 24 public enterprises, which are designated by the government, and their personnel information from the board of directors are used as samples. Independence of CEOs is identified by dividing CEOs into persons from the same public enterprise and persons from other organization, and independence of internal auditors is determined by classifying them into two groups, people from academic field, economic world, and civic groups, and people from political community, government ministries, and military. Also, expertise of CEOs and internal auditors is divided into business expertise and financial expertise. As control variables, this study applied foundation year, asset size, government subsidies as a proportion to corporate earnings, and dummy variables by year. Analysis showed that there is significantly positive relationship between independence and financial expertise of internal auditors and managerial performance. In addition, although business expertise and financial expertise of CEOs were not statistically significant, they have positive relationship with managerial performance. However, unlike a general idea, independence of CEOs is not statistically significant, but it is negatively related to managerial performance. Contrary to general concerns, it seems that the impact of independence of public enterprises' CEOs on managerial performance has slightly decreased. Instead, it explains that expertise of public enterprises' CEOs and internal auditors plays more important role in managerial performance rather than their independence. Meanwhile, there are limitations in this study as follows. First, in contrast to private enterprises, public enterprises simultaneously pursue publicness and entrepreneurship. However, this study focuses on entrepreneurship, excluding considerations on publicness of public enterprises. Second, public enterprises in this study are limited to those in the central government. Accordingly, it should be carefully considered when the result of this study is applied to public enterprises in local governments. Finally, this study excludes factors related to transparency and democracy issues which are raised in appointment process of executives of public enterprises, as it may cause the issue of subjectivity of researchers.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.233-243
• /
• 2000

Purpose : First of all, this study was performed to assess the result of curative radiotherapy and to evaluate different possible prognostic factors for squamous cell carcinoma of the supraglottic larynx treated at the Pusan National University Hospital. The second goal of this study was by comparing our data with those of other study groups, to determine the better treatment policy of supraglottic cancer in future. Methods and Material : Thirty-two patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the supraglottic larynx were treated with radiotherapy at Pusan National University Hospital, from August 1985 to December 1996. Minimum follow-up period was 29 months, Twenty-seven patients (84.4$\%$) were followed up over 5 years. Radiotherapy was delivered with 6 MV photons to the primary laryngeal tumor and regional iymphatics with shrinking field technique. Ail patients received radiotherapy under conventional fractionated schedule (once a day). Median total tumor dose was 70.2 Gy (range, 55.8 to 75.6 Gy) on primary or gross tumor lesion. Thirteen patients had Induction chemotherapy with cisplatln and 5-fluorouracil (1-3 cycles). Patient distribution, according to the different stages, were as follows: stage I, 5/32 (15.6$\%$): stage II, 10/32 (31.3$\%$); stage III, 8/32 (25$\%$): stage IV, 9/32 (28.1$\%$). Results :The 5-year overall survival rate of the whole series (32 patients) was 51.7$\%$. The overall survival rate at 5-years was 80$\%$ in stage I, 66.7$\%$ in stage II, 42.9$\%$ in stage III, 25$\%$ in stage IV (p=0.0958). The S-year local control rates after radiotherapy were as fellows: stage I, 100$\%$; stage II, 60$\%$ stage III, 62.5$\%$; stage IV, 44.4$\%$ (p=0.233). Overall vocal preservation rates was 65.6$\%$, 100% In stage I, 70% in stage II, 62.5$\%$ In stage III, 44.4$\%$ in stage IV (p=0.210). There was no statistical significance in survival and local control rate between neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy group and radiotherapy alone group. Severe laryngeal edema was found in 2 cases after radiotllerapy, emergent tracheostomy was done. Four patients were died from distant metastsis, . three in lung, one in brain. Double primary tumor was found in 2 cases, one in lung (metachronous), another in thyroid (synchronous). Ulcerative lesions were revealed as unfavorable prognostic factor ( p=0.0215), and radiation dose (more or less than 70.2 Gy) was an important factor on survival (p=0.002). Conclusion : The role of radiotherapy treatment of supraglottic carcinoma is to important factor on survival and to preserve the laryngeal function. Based on our data and other studies, early and moderately advanced supragiottic carcinomas could be successfully treated with either consewative surgery or radiotherapy alone. Both modalities showed similar results in survival and vocal preservation. For the advanced cases, radiotherapy alone is Inadequate for curative aim and surgery combined with radiotherapy should be done in operable patients. When patients refuse operation or want to preserve vocal function, or for the patients with inoperable medical conditions, combined chemoradiotherapy (concurrent) or altered fractionated radiotherapy with or without radiosensitizer should be taken into consideration in future.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.109-153
• /
• 1992

This paper estimates a translog cost function for the Korea's banking industry and derives various implications on the prospect for the Korean banking structure in the future based on the estimated efficiency indicators for the banking sector. The Korean banking industry is permitted to operate trust business to the full extent and the security business to a limited extent, while it is formally subjected to the strict, specialized banking system. Security underwriting and investment businesses are allowed in a very limited extent only for stocks and bonds of maturity longer than three year and only up to 100 percent of the bank paid-in capital. Until the end of 1991, the ceiling was only up to 25 percent of the total balance of the demand deposits. However, they are prohibited from the security brokerage business. While the in-house integration of security businesses with the traditional business of deposit and commercial lending is restrictively regulated as such, Korean banks can enter the security business by establishing subsidiaries in the industry. This paper, therefore, estimates the efficiency indicators as well as the cost functions, identifying the in-house integrated trust business and security investment business as important banking activities, for various cases where both the production and the intermediation function approaches in modelling the financial intermediaries are separately applied, and the banking businesses of deposit, lending and security investment as one group and the trust businesses as another group are separately and integrally analyzed. The estimation results of the efficiency indicators for various cases are summarized in Table 1 and Table 2. First, security businesses exhibit economies of scale but also economies of scope with traditional banking activities, which implies that in-house integration of the banking and security businesses may not be a nonoptimal banking structure. Therefore, this result further implies that the transformation of Korea's banking system from the current, specialized system to the universal banking system will not impede the improvement of the banking industry's efficiency. Second, the lending businesses turn out to be subjected to diseconomies of scale, while exhibiting unclear evidence for economies of scope. In sum, it implies potential efficiency gain of the continued in-house integration of the lending activity. Third, the continued integration of the trust businesses seems to contribute to improving the efficiency of the banking businesses, since the trust businesses exhibit economies of scope. Fourth, deposit services and fee-based activities, such as foreign exchange and credit card businesses, exhibit economies of scale but constant returns to scope, which implies, the possibility of separating those businesses from other banking and trust activities. The recent trend of the credit card business being operated separately from other banking activities by an independent identity in Korea as well as in the global banking market seems to be consistent with this finding. Then, how can the possibility of separating deposit services from the remaining activities be interpreted? If one insists a strict definition of commercial banking that is confined to deposit and commercial lending activities, separating the deposit service will suggest a resolution or a disappearance of banking, itself. Recently, however, there has been a suggestion that separating banks' deposit and lending activities by allowing a depository institution which specialize in deposit taking and investing deposit fund only in the safest securities such as government securities to administer the deposit activity will alleviate the risk of a bank run. This method, in turn, will help improve the safety of the payment system (Robert E. Litan, What should Banks Do? Washington, D.C., The Brookings Institution, 1987). In this context, the possibility of separating the deposit activity will imply that a new type of depository institution will arise naturally without contradicting the efficiency of the banking businesses, as the size of the banking market grows in the future. Moreover, it is also interesting to see additional evidences confirming this statement that deposit taking and security business are cost complementarity but deposit taking and lending businesses are cost substitute (see Table 2 for cost complementarity relationship in Korea's banking industry). Finally, it has been observed that the Korea's banking industry is lacking in the characteristics of natural monopoly. Therefore, it may not be optimal to encourage the merger and acquisition in the banking industry only for the purpose of improving the efficiency.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.37-56
• /
• 2001

This study was conducted to analyze the degree of changes in knowledge and attitude toward smoking and to examine the factors affecting knowledge and attitude for smoking after providing a smoking prevention program based on social influence model for a year to middle school students. Study population consists of 665 subjects of middle school students(aged 14 years) in Gumi city in Kyeongsangbukdo Province. Among them three-hundred sixty-seven students(intervention group) were educated to a smoking prevention program for 1 year from April 1999 to April 2000. School-based four-class program to prevent smoking was developed. The program provides instruction about short and long-term negative physiologic and social consequences of smoking and also discussed the health hazards of smoking, social pressure to smoke, peer norms regarding tobacco use, and refusal skill. A 45-item self-administered structured questionnaire was designed to evaluate the change of knowledge, attitude, smoking rate and the amount of smoking. The instrument was comprised of 11 knowledge items, thirteen attitude item and demographic items. Each scales were created by summing responses to each items within each scales and high scores on the knowledge, attitude, and smoking behavioral intention scales indicated positive responses. Based on the changes before and after the implementation of smoking prevention program between intervention and control group, the change of scores on knowledge were significantly different between the control group and the intervention group(p<0.05) and the change of scores on the attitude toward smoking was significantly different between intervention and control group. The change of smoking rate were not showing a significant difference between two groups but the amount of smoking were significantly reduced in intervention group than control group. In multiple regression analysis on changes of knowledge about smoking, the variables of smoking prevention program education, previous knowledge on smoking and students' school performance were selected the significant variables. In multiple regression to analysis of the factors influencing changes in attitude toward smoking, the variables of smoking prevention program education, previous knowledge on smoking were shown to be significant. The smoking prevention program was effective on change of knowledge and attitude of middle school students. In considering that the policy should be needed to extent of implementation of school-based health education curricula based on social influence model and it would contribute to reduce smoking of students.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.98 no.1
• /
• pp.66-81
• /
• 2009

From a new perspective of "humans and the culture of forming and conserving the environment", the sustainable forest management can be reformulated under the concept of "cultural sustainability". Cultural sustainability is based on the emphasis of the high contribution to sustainability of the culture of forming and conserving the environment. This study extracts the implications to cultural sustainability for the modern world by investigating a historical case of the culturo-social pine forestry in the Joseon period of Korea. In the legendary and recorded acts by the first king Taejo, Seonggye Yi, Korean red pine (Pinus densiflora) was the "Royal tree" of Joseon and also the "Sajik tree" related intimately with the Great Sajik Ritual valued as the top rank within the national ritual regime that sustained the Royal Virtue Politics in Confucian political ideology. Into the Neo-Confucian faith and royal rituals of Joseon, elements of geomancy (Feng shui), folk religion, and Buddhism had been amalgamated. The deities worshipped or revered at the Sajik shrine were Earth-god (Sa) and crop-god (Jik). And it is the Earth god and the concrete entity, Sajik tree, that contains the legacy of sylvan religion descended from the ancient times and had been incorporated into the Confucian faith and ritual regime. Korean red pine as the Royal-Sajik tree played a critical role of sustaining the religio-political justification for the rule of the Joseon's Royalty. The religio-political symbolism of Korean red pine was represented in diverse ways. The same pine was used as the timber material of shrine buildings established for the national rituals under Neo-Confucian faith by the royal court of Joseon kingdom before the modern Korea. The symbolic role of pine had also been expressed in the forms of royal tomb forests, the Imposition Forest (Bongsan) for royal coffin timber (Whangjangmok), and the creation, protection, conservation and bureaucratic management of the pine forests in the Inner-four and Outer-four mountains for the capital fortress at Seoul, where the king and his family inhabit. The religio-political management system of pine forests parallels well with the kingdom's economic forest management system, called "Pine Policy", with an array of pine cultivation forests and Prohibition Forests (Geumsan) in the earlier period, and that of Imposition Forests in the later period. The royal pine culture with the economic forest management system had influenced on the public consciousness and the common people seem to have coined Malrimgat, a pure Korean word that is interchangeable with the Chinesecharacter words of prohibition-cultivation land or forest (禁養地, 禁養林) practiced in the royal tomb forests, and Prohibition and Imposition Forests, which contained prohibition landmarks (Geumpyo) made of stone and rock on the boundaries. A culturo-social forestry, in which Sajik altar, royal tomb forests, Whangjang pine Prohibition and Imposition forests and the capital Inner-four and Outer-four mountain forests consist, was being put into practice in Joseon. In Joseon dynastry, the Neo-Confucian faith and royal rituals with geomancy, folk religion, and Buddhism incorporated has also played a critical humanistic role for the culturo-social pine forestry, the one higher in values than that of the economic pine forestry. The implications have been extracted from the historical case study on the Royal-Sajik tree and culturo-social forestry of Joseon : Cultural sustainability, in which the interaction between humans and environment maintains a long-term culturo-natural equilibrium or balance for many generations, emphasizes the importance that the modern humans who form and conserve environment need to rediscover and transform their culturo-natural legacy into conservation for many generations and produce knowledge of sustainability science, the transdisciplinary knowledge for the interaction between environment and humans, which fulfills the cultural, social and spiritual needs.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.34 no.3
• /
• pp.95-131
• /
• 2012

This study examines whether the executive turnover and the executive resignation during the term of office affect the performance of Korean state-owned enterprises. The executive turnover in the paper means the comprehensive change of the executives which includes the change after the term of office, the change after consecutive terms and the change during the term of office. The 'resignation' was named for the executive change during the term of office to distinguish from the executive turnover. The study scope of the paper is restrained to the comprehensive executive change itself irrespective of the term of office and the resignation during the term of office. Therefore the natural change of the executive after the term of office or the change after consecutive terms is not included in the study. Spontaneous resignation and forced resignation are not distinguished in the paper as the distinction between the two is not easy. The paper uses both the margin of return on asset and the margin of return on asset adjusted by industry as proxies of the performance of state-owned enterprises. The business nature of state-owned enterprise is considered in the study, the public nature not in it. The paper uses the five year (2004 to 2008) samples of 24 firms designated as public enterprises by Korean government. The analysis results are as follows. First, 45.1% of CEOs were changed a year during the sample period on the average. The average tenure period of CEOs was 2 years and 3 months and 49.9% among the changed CEOs resigned during the term of office. 41.6% of internal auditors were changed a year on the average. The average tenure period of internal auditors was 2 years and 2 months and 51.0% among the changed internal auditors resigned during the term of office. In case of outside directors, on average, 38.2% were changed a year. The average tenure period was 2 years and 7 months and 25.4% among the changed internal directors resigned during the term of office. These statistics show that numerous CEOs resigned before the finish of the three year term in office. Also, considering the tenure of an internal auditor and an outside director which diminished from 3 years to 2 years by an Act on the Management of Public Institutions (applied to the executives appointed since April 2007), it seems most internal auditors resigned during the term of office but most outside directors resigned after the end of the term. Secondly, There was no evidence that the executives were changed during the term of office because of the bad performance of prior year. On the other hand, contrary to the normal expectation, the performance of prior year of the state-owned enterprise where an outside director resigned during the term of office was significantly higher than that of other state-owned enterprises. It means that the clauses in related laws on the executive dismissal on grounds of bad performance did not work normally. Instead it can be said that the executive change was made by non-economic reasons such as a political motivation. Thirdly, the results from a fixed effect model show there were evidences that performance turned negatively when CEOs or outside directors resigned during the term of office. CEO's resignation during the term of office gave a significantly negative effect on the margin of return on asset. Outside director's resignation during the term of office lowered significantly the margin of return on asset adjusted by industry. These results suggest that the executive's change in Korean state-owned enterprises was not made by objective or economic standards such as management performance assessment and the negative effect on performance of the enterprises was had by the unfaithful obeyance of the legal executive term.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.3-49
• /
• 1990

This paper analyzes U.S. demand for imports from Asian NIEs and Japan, utilizing the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muellbauer, with an emphasis on the effect of changes in the exchange rate. The empirical model assumes a two-stage budgeting process in which the first stage represents the allocation of total U.S. demand among three groups: the Asian NIEs and Japan, six Western developed countries, and the U.S. domestic non-tradables and import competing sector. The second stage represents the allocation of total U.S. imports from the Asian NIEs and Japan among them, by country. According to the AIDS model, the share equation for the Asia NIEs and Japan in U.S. nominal GNP is estimated as a single equation for the first stage. The share equations for those five countries in total U.S. imports are estimated as a system with the general demand restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry and adding-up, together with polynomially distributed lag restrictions. The negativity condition is also satisfied for all cases. The overall results of these complicated estimations, using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1972 to the fourth quarter of 1989, are quite promising in terms of the significance of individual estimators and other statistics. The conclusions drawn from the estimation results and the derived demand elasticities can be summarized as follows: First, the exports of each Asian NIE to the U.S. are competitive with (substitutes for) Japan's exports, while complementary to the exports of fellow NIEs, with the exception of the competitive relation between Hong Kong and Singapore. Second, the exports of each Asian NIE and of Japan to the U.S. are competitive with those of Western developed countries' to the U.S, while they are complementary to the U.S.' non-tradables and import-competing sector. Third, as far as both the first and second stages of budgeting are coneidered, the imports from each Asian NIE and Japan are luxuries in total U.S. consumption. However, when only the second budgeting stage is considered, the imports from Japan and Singapore are luxuries in U.S. imports from the NIEs and Japan, while those of Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong are necessities. Fourth, the above results may be evidenced more concretely in their implied exchange rate effects. It appears that, in general, a change in the yen-dollar exchange rate will have at least as great an impact, on an NIE's share and volume of exports to the U.S. though in the opposite direction, as a change in the exchange rate of the NIE's own currency $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar. Asian NIEs, therefore, should counteract yen-dollar movements in order to stabilize their exports to the U.S.. More specifically, Korea should depreciate the value of the won relative to the dollar by approximately the same proportion as the depreciation rate of the yen $vis-{\grave{a}}-vis$ the dollar, in order to maintain the volume of Korean exports to the U.S.. In the worst case scenario, Korea should devalue the won by three times the maguitude of the yen's depreciation rate, in order to keep market share in the aforementioned five countries' total exports to the U.S.. Finally, this study provides additional information which may support empirical findings on the competitive relations among the Asian NIEs and Japan. The correlation matrices among the strutures of those five countries' exports to the U.S.. during the 1970s and 1980s were estimated, with the export structure constructed as the shares of each of the 29 industrial sectors' exports as defined by the 3 digit KSIC in total exports to the U.S. from each individual country. In general, the correlation between each of the four Asian NIEs and Japan, and that between Hong Kong and Singapore, are all far below .5, while the ones among the Asian NIEs themselves (except for the one between Hong Kong and Singapore) all greatly exceed .5. If there exists a tendency on the part of the U.S. to import goods in each specific sector from different countries in a relatively constant proportion, the export structures of those countries will probably exhibit a high correlation. To take this hypothesis to the extreme, if the U.S. maintained an absolutely fixed ratio between its imports from any two countries for each of the 29 sectors, the correlation between the export structures of these two countries would be perfect. Therefore, since any two goods purchased in a fixed proportion could be classified as close complements, a high correlation between export structures will imply a complementary relationship between them. Conversely, low correlation would imply a competitive relationship. According to this interpretation, the pattern formed by the correlation coefficients among the five countries' export structures to the U.S. are consistent with the empirical findings of the regression analysis.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.45-67
• /
• 2017

According to the Internet Usage Research performed in 2016, the number of internet users and the internet usage have been increasing. Smartphone, compared to the computer, is taking a more dominant role as an internet access device. As the number of smart devices have been increasing, some views that the demand on high-speed internet will decrease; however, Despite the increase in smart devices, the high-speed Internet market is expected to slightly increase for a while due to the speedup of Giga Internet and the growth of the IoT market. As the broadband Internet market saturates, telecom operators are over-competing to win new customers, but if they know the cause of customer exit, it is expected to reduce marketing costs by more effective marketing. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between the cancellation rates of telecommunication products and the factors affecting them by combining the data of 3 cities, Anyang, Gunpo, and Uiwang owned by a telecommunication company with the regional data from KOSIS(Korean Statistical Information Service). Especially, we focused on the assumption that the neighboring areas affect the distribution of the cancellation rates by coupling type, so we conducted spatial cluster analysis on the 3 types of cancellation rates of each region using the spatial analysis tool, SatScan, and analyzed the various relationships between the cancellation rates and the regional data. In the analysis phase, we first summarized the characteristics of the clusters derived by combining spatial information and the cancellation data. Next, based on the results of the cluster analysis, Variance analysis, Correlation analysis, and regression analysis were used to analyze the relationship between the cancellation rates data and regional data. Based on the results of analysis, we proposed appropriate marketing methods according to the region. Unlike previous studies on regional characteristics analysis, In this study has academic differentiation in that it performs clustering based on spatial information so that the regions with similar cancellation types on adjacent regions. In addition, there have been few studies considering the regional characteristics in the previous study on the determinants of subscription to high-speed Internet services, In this study, we tried to analyze the relationship between the clusters and the regional characteristics data, assuming that there are different factors depending on the region. In this study, we tried to get more efficient marketing method considering the characteristics of each region in the new subscription and customer management in high-speed internet. As a result of analysis of variance, it was confirmed that there were significant differences in regional characteristics among the clusters, Correlation analysis shows that there is a stronger correlation the clusters than all region. and Regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the cancellation rate and the regional characteristics. As a result, we found that there is a difference in the cancellation rate depending on the regional characteristics, and it is possible to target differentiated marketing each region. As the biggest limitation of this study and it was difficult to obtain enough data to carry out the analyze. In particular, it is difficult to find the variables that represent the regional characteristics in the Dong unit. In other words, most of the data was disclosed to the city rather than the Dong unit, so it was limited to analyze it in detail. The data such as income, card usage information and telecommunications company policies or characteristics that could affect its cause are not available at that time. The most urgent part for a more sophisticated analysis is to obtain the Dong unit data for the regional characteristics. Direction of the next studies be target marketing based on the results. It is also meaningful to analyze the effect of marketing by comparing and analyzing the difference of results before and after target marketing. It is also effective to use clusters based on new subscription data as well as cancellation data.