• Title/Summary/Keyword: Poisson regression

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A Meta-analysis of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality in Seoul, $1991\sim1995$ (메타분석 방법을 적용한 서울시 대기오염과 조기사망의 상관성 연구 (1991년$\sim$1995년))

  • Dockery, Douglas W.;Kim, Chun-Bae;Jee, Sun-Ha;Chung, Yong;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.177-182
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    • 1999
  • Objectives: To reexamine the association between air pollution and daily mortality in Seoul, Korea using a method of meta-analysis with the data filed for 1991 through 1995. Methods: A separate Poisson regression analysis on each district within the metropolitan area of Seoul was conducted to regress daily death counts on levels of each ambient air pollutant, such as total suspended particulates (TSP), sulfur dioxide $(SO_2)$, and ozone $(O_3)$, controlling for variability in the weather condition. We calculated a weighted mean as a meta-analysis summary of the estimates and its standard error. Results: We found that the p value from each pollutant model to test the homogeneity assumption was small (p<0.01) because of the large disparity among district-specific estimates. Therefore, all results reported here were estimated from the random effect model. Using the weighted mean that we calculated, the mortality at a $100{\mu}g/m^3$ increment in a 3-day moving average of TSP levels was 1.034 (95% Cl 1.009-1.059). The mortality was estimated to increase 6% (95% Cl 3-10%) and 3% (95% Cl 0-6%) with each 50 ppb increase for 9-day moving average of SO2 and 1-hr maximum O3, respectively. Conclusions: Like most of air pollution epidemiologic studies, this meta-analysis cannot avoid fleeing from measurement misclassification since no personal measurement was taken. However, we can expect that a measurement bias be reduced in a district-specific estimate since a monitoring station is hefter representative cf air quality of the matched district. The similar results to those from the previous studios indicated existence of health effect of air pollution at current levels in many industrialized countries, including Korea.

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A New Exploratory Research on Franchisor's Provision of Exclusive Territories (가맹본부의 배타적 영업지역보호에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Lim, Young-Kyun;Lee, Su-Dong;Kim, Ju-Young
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.37-63
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    • 2012
  • In franchise business, exclusive sales territory (sometimes EST in table) protection is a very important issue from an economic, social and political point of view. It affects the growth and survival of both franchisor and franchisee and often raises issues of social and political conflicts. When franchisee is not familiar with related laws and regulations, franchisor has high chance to utilize it. Exclusive sales territory protection by the manufacturer and distributors (wholesalers or retailers) means sales area restriction by which only certain distributors have right to sell products or services. The distributor, who has been granted exclusive sales territories, can protect its own territory, whereas he may be prohibited from entering in other regions. Even though exclusive sales territory is a quite critical problem in franchise business, there is not much rigorous research about the reason, results, evaluation, and future direction based on empirical data. This paper tries to address this problem not only from logical and nomological validity, but from empirical validation. While we purse an empirical analysis, we take into account the difficulties of real data collection and statistical analysis techniques. We use a set of disclosure document data collected by Korea Fair Trade Commission, instead of conventional survey method which is usually criticized for its measurement error. Existing theories about exclusive sales territory can be summarized into two groups as shown in the table below. The first one is about the effectiveness of exclusive sales territory from both franchisor and franchisee point of view. In fact, output of exclusive sales territory can be positive for franchisors but negative for franchisees. Also, it can be positive in terms of sales but negative in terms of profit. Therefore, variables and viewpoints should be set properly. The other one is about the motive or reason why exclusive sales territory is protected. The reasons can be classified into four groups - industry characteristics, franchise systems characteristics, capability to maintain exclusive sales territory, and strategic decision. Within four groups of reasons, there are more specific variables and theories as below. Based on these theories, we develop nine hypotheses which are briefly shown in the last table below with the results. In order to validate the hypothesis, data is collected from government (FTC) homepage which is open source. The sample consists of 1,896 franchisors and it contains about three year operation data, from 2006 to 2008. Within the samples, 627 have exclusive sales territory protection policy and the one with exclusive sales territory policy is not evenly distributed over 19 representative industries. Additional data are also collected from another government agency homepage, like Statistics Korea. Also, we combine data from various secondary sources to create meaningful variables as shown in the table below. All variables are dichotomized by mean or median split if they are not inherently dichotomized by its definition, since each hypothesis is composed by multiple variables and there is no solid statistical technique to incorporate all these conditions to test the hypotheses. This paper uses a simple chi-square test because hypotheses and theories are built upon quite specific conditions such as industry type, economic condition, company history and various strategic purposes. It is almost impossible to find all those samples to satisfy them and it can't be manipulated in experimental settings. However, more advanced statistical techniques are very good on clean data without exogenous variables, but not good with real complex data. The chi-square test is applied in a way that samples are grouped into four with two criteria, whether they use exclusive sales territory protection or not, and whether they satisfy conditions of each hypothesis. So the proportion of sample franchisors which satisfy conditions and protect exclusive sales territory, does significantly exceed the proportion of samples that satisfy condition and do not protect. In fact, chi-square test is equivalent with the Poisson regression which allows more flexible application. As results, only three hypotheses are accepted. When attitude toward the risk is high so loyalty fee is determined according to sales performance, EST protection makes poor results as expected. And when franchisor protects EST in order to recruit franchisee easily, EST protection makes better results. Also, when EST protection is to improve the efficiency of franchise system as a whole, it shows better performances. High efficiency is achieved as EST prohibits the free riding of franchisee who exploits other's marketing efforts, and it encourages proper investments and distributes franchisee into multiple regions evenly. Other hypotheses are not supported in the results of significance testing. Exclusive sales territory should be protected from proper motives and administered for mutual benefits. Legal restrictions driven by the government agency like FTC could be misused and cause mis-understandings. So there need more careful monitoring on real practices and more rigorous studies by both academicians and practitioners.

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